EPAC: Tropical Depression Fausto

[KWT]

It does have some curving looking at the convection, i'm guessing thats why the numbers are at 1.5 but thats just IMO.

[cycloneye]

ABPZ20 KNHC 152335
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE JUL 15 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
ELIDA...LOCATED ABOUT 495 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 475 MILES
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[HURAKAN]

LLC looks to be located to the east of the convection, which may indicate easterly shear.

[Thunder44]

855
WHXX01 KMIA 160728
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0728 UTC WED JUL 16 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVEN (EP072008) 20080716 0600 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080716 0600 080716 1800 080717 0600 080717 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.8N 94.8W 11.2N 96.8W 12.4N 98.9W 13.8N 101.3W
BAMD 9.8N 94.8W 10.5N 97.3W 11.3N 99.6W 12.2N 101.6W
BAMM 9.8N 94.8W 10.9N 97.1W 12.1N 99.5W 13.3N 101.7W
LBAR 9.8N 94.8W 10.6N 96.8W 11.6N 99.5W 12.7N 102.1W
SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 47KTS 56KTS
DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 47KTS 56KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080718 0600 080719 0600 080720 0600 080721 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.3N 103.5W 17.6N 107.3W 20.0N 110.7W 22.2N 115.5W
BAMD 13.0N 103.2W 14.7N 106.2W 17.0N 110.0W 19.5N 114.7W
BAMM 14.4N 103.8W 16.4N 107.6W 18.6N 111.6W 20.7N 116.6W
LBAR 13.6N 104.5W 15.6N 109.1W 17.7N 114.5W 15.6N 119.1W
SHIP 63KTS 72KTS 71KTS 63KTS
DSHP 63KTS 72KTS 71KTS 63KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.8N LONCUR = 94.8W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 9.0N LONM12 = 93.7W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 9.2N LONM24 = 93.1W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

It also says "NONAME" on NRL.

[Chacor]

It would appear we have TD 07E then. EPac continues to churn them out one by one...

[Chacor]

They expect a hurricane out of this... and they're apparently very confident in the initial position.

WTPZ22 KNHC 160842
TCMEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072008
0900 UTC WED JUL 16 2008

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 95.3W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 0 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 95.3W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 94.8W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 10.6N 96.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 11.3N 99.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 11.8N 102.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 12.5N 104.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 14.0N 106.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 16.0N 109.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 18.0N 112.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.1N 95.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Chacor]

WTPZ32 KNHC 160845
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072008
200 AM PDT WED JUL 16 2008

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...NO
IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LAND...

AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.3 WEST OR ABOUT
560 MILES...905 KM...SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. A MOTION
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO...AT
A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...10.1 N...95.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Chacor]

WTPZ42 KNHC 160846
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072008
200 AM PDT WED JUL 16 2008

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS BEEN
MAINTAINING CONVECTION CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION. THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING IN
EXTENT AND VIGOR OVER THE PAST 12-24 HOURS...AND AT 06Z THE SYSTEM
GARNERED CONSENSUS DVORAK T2.0 CLASSIFICATIONS. ON THIS
BASIS...ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E.

THE CENTER IS HARD TO LOCATE PRECISELY...BUT IS SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL MOTION IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 310/8. DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE CYCLONE TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO THAT POINT. IN THE LATTER PART OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE GLOBAL
MODELS HANDLE A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR 40N/150W.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS THE ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH MAINTAINS A
SOMEWHAT WEAKER RIDGE THROUGHOUT AND IN PARTICULAR NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD DUE TO THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH. MOST OF THE
REMAINING TRACK GUIDANCE IS SOUTH OF AND FASTER THAN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.

THE DEPRESSION IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR...AND
THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
EXPLICIT DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS...SHOW THE
SYSTEM BECOMING A MID-RANGE TROPICAL STORM...WHILE THE STATISTICAL
SHIPS MODEL PEAKS OUT NEAR 75 KT IN THREE DAYS. THIS IS ALL THE
MORE REMARKABLE GIVEN THAT THE CURRENT SHIPS RUN IS BASED OFF THE
MEDIUM BAM...WHICH REACHES COLDER WATER A DAY SOONER THAN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE GFS/UKMET/NOGAPS/ECMWF LARGE-SCALE MODELS
ALL INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE ABLE TO FIGHT OFF THE SHEAR
AND THRIVE...AND OUT OF RESPECT FOR THAT UNANIMITY OF OPINION THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE ABOVE THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0900Z 10.1N 95.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 16/1800Z 10.6N 96.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 17/0600Z 11.3N 99.6W 40 KT
36HR VT 17/1800Z 11.8N 102.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 18/0600Z 12.5N 104.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 19/0600Z 14.0N 106.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 20/0600Z 16.0N 109.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 21/0600Z 18.0N 112.0W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[KWT]

Looks like some of the higher resolution models have this depression being hit by the shear and that slowing down its development whilst other models seem to reduce the effect of the shear and allow the system to really strengthen. Still it is forecasted to become a hurricane which is pretty interesting I feel.

[HURAKAN]

Hello Fausto?

[Chacor]

Not quite yet.

EP, 07, 2008071612, , BEST, 0, 101N, 960W, 30, 1006, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[cycloneye]

917
WTPZ42 KNHC 161429
TCDEP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072008
800 AM PDT WED JUL 16 2008

THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS GRADUALLY BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE DEPRESSION IS VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH. SHIPS MODEL CONTINUE TO FORECAST STRONG SHEAR OVER THE
DEPRESSION BUT STILL THE ENVIRONMENT FAVORS A SLOW STRENGTHENING AS
INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS CONTROLLING ELIDA'S MOTION
IS ALSO STEERING THE DEPRESSION TOWARD THE WEST. SINCE THIS PATTERN
IS FORECAST TO PERSIST...A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS
INDICATED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/1500Z 11.0N 96.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 17/0000Z 11.3N 98.7W 40 KT
24HR VT 17/1200Z 11.7N 101.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 18/0000Z 12.3N 103.3W 50 KT
48HR VT 18/1200Z 13.0N 105.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 19/1200Z 14.5N 108.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 20/1200Z 16.5N 111.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 21/1200Z 18.0N 114.0W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[CrazyC83]

16/1145 UTC 10.1N 96.0W T2.5/2.5 07E -- East Pacific Ocean

[WmE]

16/1145 UTC 10.1N 96.0W T2.5/2.5 07E -- East Pacific Ocean

Da steh ich nun ich armer Thor und bin so klug als wie zuvor. (That's Goethe's Faust, and yes I realize that Fausto is a Spansh name) T2.5/2.5 = TS So I'd say Fausto by the next advisory.

[KWT]

Yeop now at 2.5, I'd guess thats our next EPACtropical storm IMO.
Interesting to see 94L and TD7E have the same numbers!

Nice deep convection with this depression and given the structure it has I'd guess it is a tropical storm now and thus will get upgraded next advisory I reckon.

[RL3AO]

FAUSTO, EP, E, , , , , 07, 2008, TS, O, 2008071312, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 2, EP072008
...
EP, 07, 2008071618, , BEST, 0, 112N, 990W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 30, 50, 50, 1010, 150, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, FAUSTO, M,

He's here.

[KWT]

Yep upgraded next advisory, really isn't all that surprising given the deep convection it has and the 2.5 dvorak estimate we have.

[RL3AO]

While I don't have this super high tech database like Senorpepr, I did look back though 1970 (when reliable statistics on the EPac first started). I wanted to see how many times before July 16 had the sixth tropical storm of the season formed in the East Pacific. I did not count Central Pacific storms.

Date of the sixth tropical storm
1985 - July 2 (finished with 22 storms)
1984 - July 3 (finished with 20 storms)
1990 - July 6 (finished with 20 storms)
1978 - July 9 (finished with 18 storms)
1992 - July 13 (finished with 25 storms - record)
1970 - July 14 (finished with 18 storms)
1974 - July 14 (finished with 17 storms)
2008 - July 16 (finished with ?? storms)

While it has happened 8 times in the last 39 seasons, this is the first time since 1992 that the sixth storm has formed before July 17. So either the EPac is getting less active or the NHC/EPHC is naming fewer systems. Also, since 1993, the sixth storm has formed in July in only 4 out of 16 seasons.

NOTE: I'll mention again, I only counted East Pacific storms (east of 140W). 1992 did have 27 storms, but two formed in the Central Pacific.

[KWT]

Whats interesting there is that all were pretty active seasons at least in terms of named storms with 4 seasons coming in above 20 NS.

Still this is lookig good, as long as shear doesn't really ramp up ths has got a fair chance of being a hurricane eventually, big uncertainties with that though.

[CrazyC83]

So now the 6th named storm of the EPAC season.