EPAC: Tropical Depression Fausto

[HURAKAN]

[AnnularCane]

Fausto is taking his clothes off!

[KWT]

Woah talk about a quick change from about 12hrs its losing all its deep convectino to the south and the LLC is becoming exposed again!

[btangy]

Really strange looking... almost Bertha like with the vigorous low level center void of deep convection. I'm having a hard time explaining it as the convection around the periphery of the circulation seems quite healthy. No obvious shear apparent, though there could be stuff at mid-levels that one cannot deduce readily from the satellite imagery.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072008
200 PM PDT THU JUL 17 2008

...FAUSTO POISED TO STRENGTHEN...

AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.1 WEST OR ABOUT 430
MILES...695 KM...SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.

FAUSTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR.
A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND FAUSTO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...12.8 N...105.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[KWT]

Convection does look like its trying to rebuild again over the center yet it does look a little bare still...mind you this may be a short term issue for this system its hard to say really.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072008
200 PM PDT THU JUL 17 2008

FAUSTO HAS EXHIBITING A SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL APPEARANCE TODAY...WITH AN
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER RESIDING WITHIN A WIDE BAND OF DEEP
CONVECTION AT LARGE RADIUS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 18Z WERE
55 KT...BUT THE LACK OF CONVECTION VERY NEAR THE CENTER LEADS ME TO
KEEP THE INTENSITY AT 50 KT FOR NOW. THE CYCLONE APPEARS POISED TO
STRENGTHEN...ALTHOUGH HOW FAST IT CAN DO THAT SEEMS TO DEPEND ON
HOW LONG IT TAKES FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE NEAR THE CENTER SO THE
SYSTEM CAN CONSOLIDATE. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY HINTS AT
CONVECTION SLOWLY INCREASING NEAR THE CENTER...SO STEADY
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ALONG THE LINES OF THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
INTENSIFICATION COULD CONTINUE FOR ABOUT 72 HOURS UNTIL THE SYSTEM
REACHES COOLER WATERS...AFTER WHICH TIME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST. THIS FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE EXPOSED CENTER HAS MADE IT EASIER TO FIND THE CENTER...AND THE
SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK OR
ABOUT 290/13. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE HEADING IS FORECAST
THROUGHOUT THE FIVE-DAY PERIOD...WITH ONLY A MODEST DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE
OFFICIAL TRACK IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/2100Z 12.8N 105.1W 50 KT
12HR VT 18/0600Z 13.4N 106.9W 60 KT
24HR VT 18/1800Z 13.9N 108.7W 65 KT
36HR VT 19/0600Z 14.4N 110.4W 70 KT
48HR VT 19/1800Z 15.1N 112.1W 75 KT
72HR VT 20/1800Z 16.5N 115.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 21/1800Z 18.0N 119.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 22/1800Z 19.5N 123.5W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[KWT]

Still forecasted to reach 80kts I see, could well do that if it can just pull in some of that deeper convection back over the LLC again. does look rather strange though I have to admit!

[Ad Novoxium]

It's putting up a display that actually reminds me a little of 2004's Kay.

[CrazyC83]

Looks like a naked eye there.

[HURAKAN]

EP, 07, 2008071800, , BEST, 0, 128N, 1054W, 60, 994, TS,

Almost a hurricane.

[HURAKAN]

The center is under that burst of convection.

[HURAKAN]

194
WTPZ22 KNHC 180237
TCMEP2
TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072008
0300 UTC FRI JUL 18 2008

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 105.9W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 75SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 30SE 75SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 105.9W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 105.4W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 13.4N 107.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 13.9N 109.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 14.5N 110.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 15.1N 111.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.7N 115.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 18.5N 119.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 20.0N 123.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 105.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/RHOME

[Chacor]

WTPZ42 KNHC 180252
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072008
800 PM PDT THU JUL 17 2008

A 2121Z AMSR-E OVERPASS INDICATED THAT FAUSTO IS DEVELOPING A
TIGHTLY COILED BANDING EYE FEATURE OVER THE SOUTH SEMICIRCLE.
ADDITIONALLY...THE MAJORITY OF THE STRONGER RAIN BANDS ARE LOCATED
OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
A COMPROMISE OF THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND IS SET AT 60
KT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND THE
GFDL...AND CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE NEXT 72
HOURS. AFTERWARD...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST.

SUPPORTED BY THE TWO PREVIOUS MICROWAVE IMAGES...THE INITIAL MOTION
IS ESTIMATED AT 290/10...A LITTLE SLOWER. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
IS A MIRROR IMAGE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. IT
APPEARS THAT FAUSTO'S DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION MAY BE DUE TO A
TRANSIENT MID LEVEL PERTURBATION MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NORTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO. A MAJORITY OF THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS
HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS FEATURE AND MOVE IT IN TANDEM WITH THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTERWARD...THIS
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CREATED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH BECOMES
FURTHER ENHANCED IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. CONSEQUENTLY...THIS INITIAL
REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST RESIDES CLOSELY TO A CONSENSUS
OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0300Z 13.0N 105.9W 60 KT
12HR VT 18/1200Z 13.4N 107.4W 65 KT
24HR VT 19/0000Z 13.9N 109.1W 70 KT
36HR VT 19/1200Z 14.5N 110.6W 70 KT
48HR VT 20/0000Z 15.1N 111.8W 75 KT
72HR VT 21/0000Z 16.7N 115.4W 75 KT
96HR VT 22/0000Z 18.5N 119.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 23/0000Z 20.0N 123.5W 50 KT

$$
FORECASTER UNKNOWN

[RL3AO]

FORECASTER UNKNOWN

They must not be very confident about the forecast.

[Cyclenall]

If the forecaster is unknown, it could have been anyone who wrote that...before they corrected it.

[HURAKAN]

900
WTPZ42 KNHC 180817
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072008
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 18 2008

LITTLE CHANGE IN FAUSTO'S CLOUD PATTERN THIS EVENING...WITH AN
INTENSE BANDING FEATURE RESIDING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS A COMPROMISE OF THE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND REMAINS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...AT
60 KT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE
SHIPS/LGEM...THE SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE GFDL...AND CALLS FOR GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTERWARD...GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS FORECAST.

LARGE SCALE MODELS AND THE GFDL CONTINUE TO REFLECT A TRANSIENT MID-
LEVEL PERTURBATION OR VORTICITY MAXIMA PROPAGATING SOUTHWESTWARD
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...AND INTO THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. THE MODELS THEN REVEAL THIS FEATURE MOVING WESTWARD
IN TANDEM WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT GRADUALLY FILLS AND
WEAKENS BY DAY 4. SUBSEQUENTLY...RIDGING ORIGINATING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE
CREATING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS DERIVED FROM A VARIABLE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS.

WIND RADII ADJUSTED BASED ON 0058Z QUIKSCAT.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0900Z 13.3N 106.8W 60 KT
12HR VT 18/1800Z 13.7N 108.2W 65 KT
24HR VT 19/0600Z 14.3N 109.7W 70 KT
36HR VT 19/1800Z 14.9N 111.0W 75 KT
48HR VT 20/0600Z 15.7N 112.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 21/0600Z 17.7N 116.6W 65 KT
96HR VT 22/0600Z 19.5N 121.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 23/0600Z 20.5N 125.0W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA

832
WTPZ32 KNHC 180816
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072008
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 18 2008

...FAUSTO NOT QUITE A HURRICANE...

AT 200 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.8 WEST OR ABOUT 425
MILES...690 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.

FAUSTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.
A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...AND FAUSTO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION...13.3 N...106.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA

[HURAKAN]

Convection is not symmetric.

[KWT]

It is lumped on the southern side somewhat but it is deep convection and I think it probably is still strengthening slowly.