EPAC: Tropical Depression Fausto

[Chacor]

Convection doesn't have to be symmetric, as we've seen. Don't see how that impacts its strength.

[Chacor]

I'd say that's an eye-like feature.

[WmE]

Yeah. The eyewall hasn't wrapped around completely though.

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

It looks liked the start of an eye feature and yet Hurakan's image ionly hints at that sort of feature.

[cycloneye]

A hurricane per ATCF best track:

EP, 07, 2008071812, , BEST, 0, 134N, 1076W, 65, 987, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 0, 0, 25, 1010, 275, 20,

[KWT]

Well there we go hurricane Fausto, not surprising given it has started to look increasingly impressive over the last few hours and microwave imagery is really suggestive as well...

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Fausto really does look like a large blob right now, lots of convection and some of it fairly deep with this system, its not the most impressive looking 'hurricane' I've ever seen but then again the way it looks often hides the true strength of a system.

[Chacor]

85 knots forecast now.

WTPZ22 KNHC 181438
TCMEP2
HURRICANE FAUSTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072008
1500 UTC FRI JUL 18 2008

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 108.0W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 30SE 100SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 108.0W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 107.6W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 14.0N 109.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 14.7N 110.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 15.7N 112.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.7N 113.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 18.5N 118.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 20.0N 122.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 21.5N 127.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 108.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Chacor]

WTPZ42 KNHC 181501
TCDEP2
HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072008
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 18 2008

AN EYE IS NOT YET DISCERNIBLE IN GEOSTATIONARY VISIBLE OR INFRARED
IMAGERY...BUT A SSMIS OVERPASS FROM 1253Z THAT JUST CAME IN REVEALS
ABOUT HALF OF AN EYEWALL HAS FORMED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 12Z WERE A CONSENSUS 65 KT...AND
COMBINED WITH THE MICROWAVE SIGNATURE PROVIDE ENOUGH EVIDENCE THAT
FAUSTO HAS BECOME A HURRICANE...THE THIRD OF THE 2008 EASTERN
PACIFIC SEASON. CONDITIONS APPEAR RIPE FOR CONTINUED
STRENGTHENING...WITH NOT MUCH WIND SHEAR AND RATHER WARM SSTS ALONG
THE FORECAST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THE NEW OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST PEAKS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
MODELS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNSURPRISING 285/11. FEW CHANGES
TO THE MOTION ARE INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE
FIVE-DAY PERIOD...AS THE CYCLONE WILL BE STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THAT RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BUT
TEMPORARILY IN A DAY OR TWO AS A LOW MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA...BUT
THE MODELS INDICATE IT WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED ON DAYS 3-5.
THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE TRACKS...BUT THE
CONSENSUS HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH AND NEITHER HAS THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...WHICH IS MOSTLY A BLEND OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/1500Z 13.6N 108.0W 65 KT
12HR VT 19/0000Z 14.0N 109.3W 75 KT
24HR VT 19/1200Z 14.7N 110.7W 85 KT
36HR VT 20/0000Z 15.7N 112.1W 85 KT
48HR VT 20/1200Z 16.7N 113.9W 85 KT
72HR VT 21/1200Z 18.5N 118.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 22/1200Z 20.0N 122.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 23/1200Z 21.5N 127.0W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[KWT]

Yep progged to get upto 85kts, not the best looking system I've seen though it does have some pretty good convection over the center as well. Also the microwave did show half an eyewall as the NHC noted.

[WmE]

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 182100
TCDEP2
HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072008
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 18 2008

FAUSTO IS EXHIBITING VERY WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES...AND
RECENTLY THE BEGINNINGS OF AN EYE HAVE BECOME DISCERNIBLE IN
GEOSTATIONARY VISIBLE IMAGERY. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 65 KT...AND SO DOES THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY...BUT THERE IS NO OBVIOUS REASON WHY THE HURRICANE WILL
NOT STRENGTHEN SOME. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST BY THE
MODELS TO BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR...SO THE WARMTH OF THE WATERS
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER. SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BENEATH THE HURRICANE ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT 28 CELSIUS
AND WILL GRADUALLY COOL FROM THIS POINT FORWARD...BUT ONLY AT ABOUT
ONE DEGREE CELSIUS PER DAY...SO THE WATERS ARE WARM ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SHIPS
MODEL PEAKS AT 75 KT WHILE GFDL REACHES 84 KT...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE. STEADY
WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE 3-5 DAY TIME FRAME ONCE FAUSTO
PASSES OVER THE SST GRADIENT.

THE FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED A LITTLE AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 290/9...AS FAUSTO HEADS TOWARD A SLOWLY DEVELOPING
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE RIDGE WILL PROBABLY BECOME
REESTABLISHED IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...SO OVERALL ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES
IN THE HEADING AND FORWARD SPEED ARE FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS THROUGHOUT THE FIVE-DAY PERIOD. THERE IS GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS...EXCEPT AT THE VERY END WHEN THEY
DISAGREE ON IF OR WHEN FAUSTO WILL TURN WEST. THE NEW OFFICIAL
TRACK...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...RELIES ON THE GFDL AND HWRF THAT
FORECAST A DEEPER SYSTEM THAT SHOULD CONTINUE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...RATHER THAN A WEAKER SYSTEM THAT TURNS WEST
SOONER AS SHOWN BY MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS. THE NEW TRACK IS ALSO
CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/2100Z 14.1N 108.4W 65 KT
12HR VT 19/0600Z 14.5N 109.5W 75 KT
24HR VT 19/1800Z 15.3N 110.9W 85 KT
36HR VT 20/0600Z 16.2N 112.4W 85 KT
48HR VT 20/1800Z 17.3N 114.4W 75 KT
72HR VT 21/1800Z 19.5N 118.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 22/1800Z 21.0N 123.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 23/1800Z 22.5N 127.5W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Chacor]

WTPZ42 KNHC 190244
TCDEP2
HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072008
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 18 2008

ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 0004Z SSMIS OVERPASS DEPICT A SMALL
BANDING EYE FEATURE BENEATH A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...AND A
MORE INTENSE RAIN BAND WITH -80C COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER THE EAST
QUADRANT. BASED ON AN IMPROVING CONVECTIVE INNER CORE AND A BLEND
OF THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 70 KT. A WEAK WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND WARM WATERS
SHOULD SUPPORT STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...WITH A
PEAK INTENSITY FORECAST OF 85 KT...WHICH IS A COMPROMISE OF THE
SHIPS AND THE GFDL. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...A
GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR ONCE THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO TRAVERSE
OVER COOLER WATERS.

INITIAL ESTIMATED MOTION IS 290/8...WITHIN A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREATED BY A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARD
BAJA CALIFORNIA. DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MID- LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER MEXICO WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF FAUSTO
IN 48 TO 72 HOURS...AT WHICH TIME THE FORWARD MOTION SHOULD INCREASE
A LITTLE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A MODEL CONSENSUS
THROUGH DAY 3...THEN IS NUDGED TOWARD THE GFDL AND THE HWRF WHICH
INDICATE A STRONGER TROPICAL CYCLONE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0300Z 14.3N 109.0W 70 KT
12HR VT 19/1200Z 14.8N 110.1W 80 KT
24HR VT 20/0000Z 15.6N 111.3W 85 KT
36HR VT 20/1200Z 16.7N 113.0W 80 KT
48HR VT 21/0000Z 17.8N 114.9W 70 KT
72HR VT 22/0000Z 19.7N 119.1W 55 KT
96HR VT 23/0000Z 21.0N 123.5W 35 KT
120HR VT 24/0000Z 22.5N 127.5W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN

[Chacor]

WTPZ42 KNHC 190841
TCDEP2
HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072008
200 AM PDT SAT JUL 19 2008

FAUSTO'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION APPEARS TO HAVE IMPROVED DURING THE
LAST 6 HOURS AND THERE IS INDICATION OF A BANDING EYE IN RECENT
MICROWAVE PASSES. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN AS LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 65 KT
TO 90 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 75 KT AS A
COMPROMISE. FAUSTO HAS ANOTHER DAY OR SO BEFORE IT CROSSES THE 26
DEGREE CELSIUS ISOTHERM. SINCE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE STRONG...SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT-TERM.
BEYOND 48 HOURS...FAUSTO WILL ENCOUNTER RAPIDLY FALLING SSTS ALONG
THE FORECAST TRACK SO BRISK WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.

FAUSTO APPEARS TO BE RESPONDING TO A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 300/7. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS THE TROUGH REMAINS IN
PLACE...AND TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD.
THEREAFTER...THE STEERING BECOMES LESS CERTAIN AS FAUSTO IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A PROGRESSIVELY SHALLOW CYCLONE.
TRACK MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BEYOND 72 HOURS DUE TO DIFFERENT
DEPICTIONS OF FAUSTO'S STRENGTH AND VERTICAL DEPTH. IT IS HARD TO
IMAGINE FAUSTO MAINTAINING APPRECIABLE VERTICAL DEPTH DURING THIS
TIME SINCE. ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH
OF THE GFDL...NOGAPS...AND HWRF MODELS ALL OF WHICH HANG ON TO A
RATHER DEEP SYSTEM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0900Z 14.8N 109.4W 75 KT
12HR VT 19/1800Z 15.4N 110.4W 80 KT
24HR VT 20/0600Z 16.3N 111.9W 80 KT
36HR VT 20/1800Z 17.4N 113.5W 75 KT
48HR VT 21/0600Z 18.5N 115.3W 65 KT
72HR VT 22/0600Z 20.5N 119.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 23/0600Z 21.5N 124.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 24/0600Z 23.0N 128.0W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[HurricaneRobert]

I think I see a tiny eye.

[HURAKAN]

EP, 07, 2008071912, , BEST, 0, 150N, 1097W, 80, 977,

80 knots.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

EP, 07, 2008071918, , BEST, 0, 153N, 1099W, 75, 980,

Down to 75 knots.

[HURAKAN]

WTPZ42 KNHC 192045
TCDEP2
HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072008
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 19 2008

WHILE IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT FAUSTO COULD INTENSIFY AGAIN...IT
APPEARS THAT IT HAS REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY...A BIT EARLIER THAN
GUIDANCE SUGGESTED. THE CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPRESSIVE
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST THAT WAS VISIBLE EARLIER TODAY HAVE WARMED
CONSIDERABLY. IN ADDITION...BANDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF THE CYCLONE HAS DIMINISHED. CONSEQUENTLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS DECREASED TO 75 KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A BLEND OF DVORAK-T
AND CURRENT INTENSITY VALUES. THERE IS A 6 TO 12 HOUR SMALL WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY THAT FAUSTO COULD POSSIBLY STRENGTHEN...BUT AS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THAT SCENARIO AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED
WEAKENING...THE 12 HOUR INTENSITY FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN THE
CURRENT INTENSITY OF 75 KT. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FIVE-DAY
PERIOD...SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK
AND A GRADUAL DECLINE IN THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY IS EXPECTED.

FAUSTO IS MOVING AT ABOUT 310/7...JUST A TAD TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE JUST
OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 3 DAYS...AT WHICH TIME FAUSTO SHOULD
PROBABLY START TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
A MIRROR IMAGE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS NUDGED A BIT TO THE
RIGHT...CLOSE TO THE GFDL...HWRF...AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/2100Z 15.5N 110.2W 75 KT
12HR VT 20/0600Z 16.3N 111.4W 75 KT
24HR VT 20/1800Z 17.4N 113.0W 70 KT
36HR VT 21/0600Z 18.5N 115.0W 65 KT
48HR VT 21/1800Z 19.6N 117.3W 50 KT
72HR VT 22/1800Z 21.0N 121.5W 40 KT
96HR VT 23/1800Z 22.5N 125.5W 35 KT
120HR VT 24/1800Z 24.0N 129.0W 30 KT