Here is Fausto.
WTPZ42 KNHC 162030
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072008
200 PM PDT WED JUL 16 2008
ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS STILL SOMEWHAT EXPOSED AND ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTION...THERE ARE PLENTY OF BANDING FEATURES
AND T-NUMBERS SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN SET AT 35 KNOTS. WITH WARM WATERS BUT MODERATE SHEAR...A
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. BY DAY 4...FAUSTO SHOULD BE
NEARING COOLER WATERS AND INTENSIFICATION IS NO LONGER ANTICIPATED.
BECAUSE FAUSTO WAS IN FORMATIVE STAGE AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN. BEST
ESTIMATE IS 275 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THIS FASTER MOTION
COULD BE PARTIALLY RELATED TO THE REFORMATION. FAUSTO IS FORECAST
TO MOVE AROUND A PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ON A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH INDEED IS
CLUSTERED INDICATING A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 16/2100Z 11.3N 99.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 17/0600Z 11.6N 101.9W 40 KT
24HR VT 17/1800Z 12.5N 104.7W 45 KT
36HR VT 18/0600Z 13.5N 107.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 18/1800Z 14.0N 108.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 19/1800Z 15.0N 111.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 20/1800Z 16.5N 115.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 21/1800Z 18.0N 119.0W 60 KT
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
EPAC: Tropical Depression Fausto
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re:
KWT wrote:Yep indee dit has been upgraded offically to Fausto. Offical forecast now only has this upto 60kts but I think much depends on what sort of shear we see over this system in the next few days.
72HR VT 19/1800Z 15.0N 111.5W 65 KT
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WTPZ22 KNHC 170240
TCMEP2
TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072008
0300 UTC THU JUL 17 2008
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 101.7W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 101.7W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 101.0W
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 12.2N 104.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 12.9N 106.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 13.5N 108.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 13.9N 110.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 75SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 15.0N 113.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 16.5N 116.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 18.0N 121.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 101.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
TCMEP2
TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072008
0300 UTC THU JUL 17 2008
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 101.7W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 101.7W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 101.0W
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 12.2N 104.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 12.9N 106.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 13.5N 108.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 13.9N 110.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 75SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 15.0N 113.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 16.5N 116.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 18.0N 121.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 101.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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HURAKAN
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548
WTPZ42 KNHC 170240
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072008
800 PM PDT WED JUL 16 2008
THE CENTER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...BUT IS BELIEVED TO BE NEAR
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE BLOB. A BLEND OF THE MOST
RECENT DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS GIVES 40 KT FOR THE INITIAL
INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE UNCERTAIN CENTER LOCATION I AM NOT
ESPECIALLY CONFIDENT IN THIS ASSESSMENT. NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS
HAMPERING DEVELOPMENT...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS
COULD REMAIN A FACTOR FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE SHIPS MODEL IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE...BRINGING FAUSTO TO ABOUT 80 KT IN 3 DAYS...WHILE THE
HWRF SHOWS VIRTUALLY NO STRENGTHENING AT ALL. IN BETWEEN ARE THE
LGEM AND GFDL MODELS...WITH WHICH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. THE SHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSES ONLY 10 KT OF SHEAR FROM THE
GFS ANALYSIS...WHICH SEEMS UNREALISTICALLY LOW GIVEN THE CURRENT
CLOUD PATTERN AND UPPER-LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 280/20. IT APPEARS THAT
THIS MORE RAPID MOTION MAY BE THE RESULT OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER
ROTATING WITHIN A LARGER CYCLONIC GYRE...OR PERHAPS THERE IS A
PROPAGATION COMPONENT TOWARD THE SHEARED CONVECTION. IN EITHER
EVENT...I DO NOT EXPECT THIS RAPID MOTION TO PERSIST. THE TRACK
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND
CALLS FOR FAUSTO TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE ECMWF IS AN INTERESTING OUTLIER...
THOUGH...TAKING FAUSTO ABOUT 300 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE OTHER
MODELS BY 5 DAYS. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THE FORECAST
AMPLIFICATION OF A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX CURRENTLY OVER EXTREME
WESTERN TEXAS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TOWARD THE BAJA PENINSULA. THIS
FEATURE THEN PLAYS A ROLE IN BREAKING DOWN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WEST OF BAJA IN ABOUT 3-4 DAYS. THE EVOLUTION OVER THE COLD WATERS
WEST OF BAJA IN PARTICULAR SEEMS UNREALISTIC...SO FOR THE
MOMENT...THIS SCENARIO IS BEING DISCOUNTED.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/0300Z 11.8N 101.7W 40 KT
12HR VT 17/1200Z 12.2N 104.0W 45 KT
24HR VT 18/0000Z 12.9N 106.3W 50 KT
36HR VT 18/1200Z 13.5N 108.4W 55 KT
48HR VT 19/0000Z 13.9N 110.2W 60 KT
72HR VT 20/0000Z 15.0N 113.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 21/0000Z 16.5N 116.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 22/0000Z 18.0N 121.0W 65 KT
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
WTPZ42 KNHC 170240
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072008
800 PM PDT WED JUL 16 2008
THE CENTER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...BUT IS BELIEVED TO BE NEAR
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE BLOB. A BLEND OF THE MOST
RECENT DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS GIVES 40 KT FOR THE INITIAL
INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE UNCERTAIN CENTER LOCATION I AM NOT
ESPECIALLY CONFIDENT IN THIS ASSESSMENT. NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS
HAMPERING DEVELOPMENT...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS
COULD REMAIN A FACTOR FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE SHIPS MODEL IS MOST
AGGRESSIVE...BRINGING FAUSTO TO ABOUT 80 KT IN 3 DAYS...WHILE THE
HWRF SHOWS VIRTUALLY NO STRENGTHENING AT ALL. IN BETWEEN ARE THE
LGEM AND GFDL MODELS...WITH WHICH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. THE SHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSES ONLY 10 KT OF SHEAR FROM THE
GFS ANALYSIS...WHICH SEEMS UNREALISTICALLY LOW GIVEN THE CURRENT
CLOUD PATTERN AND UPPER-LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 280/20. IT APPEARS THAT
THIS MORE RAPID MOTION MAY BE THE RESULT OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER
ROTATING WITHIN A LARGER CYCLONIC GYRE...OR PERHAPS THERE IS A
PROPAGATION COMPONENT TOWARD THE SHEARED CONVECTION. IN EITHER
EVENT...I DO NOT EXPECT THIS RAPID MOTION TO PERSIST. THE TRACK
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND
CALLS FOR FAUSTO TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE ECMWF IS AN INTERESTING OUTLIER...
THOUGH...TAKING FAUSTO ABOUT 300 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE OTHER
MODELS BY 5 DAYS. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THE FORECAST
AMPLIFICATION OF A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX CURRENTLY OVER EXTREME
WESTERN TEXAS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TOWARD THE BAJA PENINSULA. THIS
FEATURE THEN PLAYS A ROLE IN BREAKING DOWN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WEST OF BAJA IN ABOUT 3-4 DAYS. THE EVOLUTION OVER THE COLD WATERS
WEST OF BAJA IN PARTICULAR SEEMS UNREALISTIC...SO FOR THE
MOMENT...THIS SCENARIO IS BEING DISCOUNTED.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/0300Z 11.8N 101.7W 40 KT
12HR VT 17/1200Z 12.2N 104.0W 45 KT
24HR VT 18/0000Z 12.9N 106.3W 50 KT
36HR VT 18/1200Z 13.5N 108.4W 55 KT
48HR VT 19/0000Z 13.9N 110.2W 60 KT
72HR VT 20/0000Z 15.0N 113.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 21/0000Z 16.5N 116.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 22/0000Z 18.0N 121.0W 65 KT
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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HurricaneBill
- Category 5
- Posts: 3420
- Joined: Sun Apr 11, 2004 5:51 pm
- Location: East Longmeadow, MA, USA
WTPZ42 KNHC 170835
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072008
200 AM PDT THU JUL 17 2008
THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND IT APPEARS THAT
THE CENTER IS NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION. THERE IS A
WELL DEFINED CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE WEST OF THE
CENTER AND THE OUTFLOW IS ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
T-NUMBERS ARE 3.0 AND 3.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS WHICH IS THE AVERAGE OF
THE TWO SATELLITE ESTIMATES. THE STRONG SHEAR PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED
APPEARS TO BE RELAXING AND THE OCEAN IS PLENTY WARM. THEREFORE..THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS
MODEL. AS A NOTE...THE HWRF MODEL BRINGS FAUSTO TO 116 KNOTS BY 84
HOURS...AND THIS IS A BIG INCREASE FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN WHICH
BASICALLY WEAKENED THE CYCLONE.
THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAIN AND THE BEST ESTIMATE
IS 270 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS. FAUSTO IS CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THIS TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY.
HOWEVER...FAUSTO IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BECOMES
ERODED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS IS THE PATTERN PROVIDED BY
MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. ONLY THE ECMWF IS OUTSIDE AND
WELL-NORTH OF THE ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/0900Z 11.4N 103.4W 50 KT
12HR VT 17/1800Z 11.8N 105.7W 60 KT
24HR VT 18/0600Z 12.5N 108.0W 70 KT
36HR VT 18/1800Z 13.0N 109.5W 75 KT
48HR VT 19/0600Z 13.5N 111.0W 75 KT
72HR VT 20/0600Z 14.5N 114.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 21/0600Z 16.0N 118.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 22/0600Z 17.5N 122.0W 60 KT
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072008
200 AM PDT THU JUL 17 2008
THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND IT APPEARS THAT
THE CENTER IS NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION. THERE IS A
WELL DEFINED CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE WEST OF THE
CENTER AND THE OUTFLOW IS ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
T-NUMBERS ARE 3.0 AND 3.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS WHICH IS THE AVERAGE OF
THE TWO SATELLITE ESTIMATES. THE STRONG SHEAR PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED
APPEARS TO BE RELAXING AND THE OCEAN IS PLENTY WARM. THEREFORE..THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS
MODEL. AS A NOTE...THE HWRF MODEL BRINGS FAUSTO TO 116 KNOTS BY 84
HOURS...AND THIS IS A BIG INCREASE FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN WHICH
BASICALLY WEAKENED THE CYCLONE.
THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAIN AND THE BEST ESTIMATE
IS 270 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS. FAUSTO IS CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THIS TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY.
HOWEVER...FAUSTO IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BECOMES
ERODED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS IS THE PATTERN PROVIDED BY
MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. ONLY THE ECMWF IS OUTSIDE AND
WELL-NORTH OF THE ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/0900Z 11.4N 103.4W 50 KT
12HR VT 17/1800Z 11.8N 105.7W 60 KT
24HR VT 18/0600Z 12.5N 108.0W 70 KT
36HR VT 18/1800Z 13.0N 109.5W 75 KT
48HR VT 19/0600Z 13.5N 111.0W 75 KT
72HR VT 20/0600Z 14.5N 114.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 21/0600Z 16.0N 118.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 22/0600Z 17.5N 122.0W 60 KT
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139082
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: Tropical Storm Fausto
Best Track leaves it at 50kts.
EP, 07, 2008071712, , BEST, 0, 112N, 1035W, 50, 994, TS, 50, NEQ, 0, 0, 20, 20, 1010, 150, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, FAUSTO, D,
EP, 07, 2008071712, , BEST, 0, 112N, 1035W, 50, 994, TS, 50, NEQ, 0, 0, 20, 20, 1010, 150, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, FAUSTO, D,
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Squarethecircle
- Category 5
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- Joined: Fri Oct 19, 2007 4:00 pm
- Location: Fairfax, VA
Re:
bob rulz wrote:It looks like it's weakening again. The center of convection has basically disappeared and it looks like its rainbands have scattered a lot.
Everything looks fine to me.
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bob rulz
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- Location: Salt Lake City, Utah
Re: Re:
Squarethecircle wrote:bob rulz wrote:It looks like it's weakening again. The center of convection has basically disappeared and it looks like its rainbands have scattered a lot.
Everything looks fine to me.
A few hours ago there was black over the center in IR, now there's barely any red...
For a moment it did look like the northern rainbands had become more disorganized but it was probably just a trick of my untrained eye. It does look fine on visible, but I doubt it's strengthening anymore.
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HURAKAN
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779
WTPZ22 KNHC 171455
TCMEP2
TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072008
1500 UTC THU JUL 17 2008
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 104.1W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 104.1W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 103.5W
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 11.8N 106.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 12.3N 108.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 12.8N 109.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 13.3N 111.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 15.0N 115.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 16.5N 118.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 18.0N 122.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 104.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
WTPZ22 KNHC 171455
TCMEP2
TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072008
1500 UTC THU JUL 17 2008
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 104.1W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 104.1W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 103.5W
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 11.8N 106.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 12.3N 108.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 12.8N 109.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 13.3N 111.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 15.0N 115.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 16.5N 118.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 18.0N 122.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 104.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
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HURAKAN
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065
WTPZ32 KNHC 171457
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072008
800 AM PDT THU JUL 17 2008
AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.1 WEST OR ABOUT 510
MILES...825 KM...SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.
FAUSTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST LATER TODAY...AND THAT
GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND FAUSTO COULD BE A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...11.6 N...104.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
239
WTPZ42 KNHC 171501
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072008
800 AM PDT THU JUL 17 2008
FAUSTO APPEARED EARLIER TO BE STRENGTHENING...BUT FIRST LIGHT
VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOT QUITE AS
DIRECTLY INVOLVED IN THE DEEP CONVECTION AS IT SEEMED. IN
ADDITION...A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTS AN INTENSITY OF 45-50
KT...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT DESPITE DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 55 KT. THE OVERALL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS THE
SAME...HOWEVER...WITH A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM REACHES COOLER
WATERS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/12...AND A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED SOON AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH
GRADUALLY WEAKENS A LITTLE. ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES IN HEADING ARE
SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS...AND THE NEW TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/1500Z 11.6N 104.1W 50 KT
12HR VT 18/0000Z 11.8N 106.0W 55 KT
24HR VT 18/1200Z 12.3N 108.1W 60 KT
36HR VT 19/0000Z 12.8N 109.8W 65 KT
48HR VT 19/1200Z 13.3N 111.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 20/1200Z 15.0N 115.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 21/1200Z 16.5N 118.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 22/1200Z 18.0N 122.0W 60 KT
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
WTPZ32 KNHC 171457
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072008
800 AM PDT THU JUL 17 2008
AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.1 WEST OR ABOUT 510
MILES...825 KM...SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.
FAUSTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST LATER TODAY...AND THAT
GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND FAUSTO COULD BE A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...11.6 N...104.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
239
WTPZ42 KNHC 171501
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072008
800 AM PDT THU JUL 17 2008
FAUSTO APPEARED EARLIER TO BE STRENGTHENING...BUT FIRST LIGHT
VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOT QUITE AS
DIRECTLY INVOLVED IN THE DEEP CONVECTION AS IT SEEMED. IN
ADDITION...A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTS AN INTENSITY OF 45-50
KT...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT DESPITE DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 55 KT. THE OVERALL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS THE
SAME...HOWEVER...WITH A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM REACHES COOLER
WATERS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/12...AND A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED SOON AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH
GRADUALLY WEAKENS A LITTLE. ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES IN HEADING ARE
SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS...AND THE NEW TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 17/1500Z 11.6N 104.1W 50 KT
12HR VT 18/0000Z 11.8N 106.0W 55 KT
24HR VT 18/1200Z 12.3N 108.1W 60 KT
36HR VT 19/0000Z 12.8N 109.8W 65 KT
48HR VT 19/1200Z 13.3N 111.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 20/1200Z 15.0N 115.0W 70 KT
96HR VT 21/1200Z 16.5N 118.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 22/1200Z 18.0N 122.0W 60 KT
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
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