ATL: INVEST 95L in SW Caribbean

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RL3AO
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Re:

#21 Postby RL3AO » Thu Jul 17, 2008 3:09 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:The forgotten Invest. Should become 91E(?) soon.


I guess it depends how quickly it gets across Central America. If it stays due west, it will be over or near the coast of El Salvador in a few days. If it can go a little south of west, it will emerge back over waters a day or two sooner.
Last edited by RL3AO on Thu Jul 17, 2008 3:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#22 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Jul 17, 2008 3:11 pm

RL3AO wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:The forgotten Invest. Should become 91E(?) soon.


I guess it depends how quickly it gets across Central America. If it stays dew west, it will be over or near the coast of El Salvador in a few days. If it can go a little south of west, it will emerge back over waters a day or two sooner.


That's true, I forgot about the bend there. Regardless, I think this could very well develop in the EPAC.
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#23 Postby KWT » Thu Jul 17, 2008 3:17 pm

Well its only got a little more time over Caribbean waters but indeed this could well make it into the EPAC and become a system it does need to be watched, its kept its convection fairly well thus far down there.
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Re: Re:

#24 Postby RattleMan » Thu Jul 17, 2008 3:18 pm

RL3AO wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:The forgotten Invest. Should become 91E(?) soon.


I guess it depends how quickly it gets across Central America. If it stays dew west, it will be over or near the coast of El Salvador in a few days. If it can go a little south of west, it will emerge back over waters a day or two sooner.

CMC takes this invest into the EPAC and develops it.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
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#25 Postby KWT » Thu Jul 17, 2008 5:33 pm

As it happens this is starting to look good as well now if only it can get a closed circulation, if that becomes evident this may well just have enough time to become a depression though IMO it may just fall a little short of that.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/sloop-vis.html
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#26 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jul 17, 2008 5:37 pm

:uarrow: The circulation is evident in the motion of the clouds but looks broad at this point. Moreover, it looks like the system wants to make it across the long way, which is usually bad for EPAC development.
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#27 Postby KWT » Thu Jul 17, 2008 5:40 pm

Exactly its broad and thats probably the reason to hold back, its looking good now and if 94L gets these conditions then it stands a chance. We will see and also this may well end up an EPAC system I agree.
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#28 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jul 17, 2008 6:44 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2008

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W S OF 21N WITH A 1011 MB LOW ALONG
THE WAVE NEAR 14N. THIS SYSTEM HAS SLOWED TO NEAR 10 KT OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE MOVING INLAND TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA. THIS ACTIVITY COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF
20N TO INLAND OVER HONDURAS BETWEEN THE WAVE AXIS AND THE COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N-20N E OF THE WAVE AXIS TO 75W.
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#29 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jul 17, 2008 6:51 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2008

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING.
WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
BEFORE MOVING INLAND TONIGHT OR FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA.
THIS ACTIVITY COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/ROBERTS
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L in SW Caribbean

#30 Postby lrak » Thu Jul 17, 2008 10:14 pm

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MNPC.html


Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua

Looks like whatever was over the water is now over land, I wonder if the ULL to the north and the interaction with land will push it abit northwest. Maybe put it on and land track towards Mexico. :?:


Latest 6 PM (22) Jul 17 78 (26) 77 (25) 29.74 (1007) S 16 light drizzle
5 PM (21) Jul 17 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.74 (1007) ENE 14 drizzle
4 PM (20) Jul 17 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.77 (1008) NE 12 light drizzle
3 PM (19) Jul 17 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.80 (1009) NE 16 rain with thunder
2 PM (18) Jul 17 78 (26) 77 (25) 29.83 (1010) NNW 12 drizzle
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#31 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jul 17, 2008 10:41 pm

AL, 95, 2008071800, , BEST, 0, 137N, 831W, 30, 1007
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#32 Postby Chacor » Fri Jul 18, 2008 1:07 am

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD MOVING
TROPICAL WAVE. SINCE THIS SYSTEM HAS MOVED INLAND OVER NICARAGUA
AND HONDURAS NO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED. THIS SYSTEM IS
PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD HEAVY RAINS OVER
PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. THIS ACTIVITY COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
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#33 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jul 18, 2008 6:35 am

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W S OF 22N WITH A 1008 MB LOW ALONG THE
WAVE NEAR 14N. THIS SYSTEM HAS SLOWED TO NEAR 10-15 KT GIVEN THE
LARGE EXPANSIVE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE OVERALL CIRCULATION. THE
LOW HAS MOVED INLAND ACROSS NRN NICARAGUA AND IT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AND
PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...GUATEMALA AND BELIZE. THIS
ACTIVITY COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
11N-19N BETWEEN 80W-90W.

Bye!
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#34 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Jul 18, 2008 3:08 pm

This Gone from NRL yet?
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Re:

#35 Postby WmE » Fri Jul 18, 2008 3:09 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:This Gone from NRL yet?


No it's still up.
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Re:

#36 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Jul 18, 2008 3:09 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:This Gone from NRL yet?


No, it is still there. Even though it will not be developing into anything in the Atlantic, it is still dangerous due to torrential rains.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L in SW Caribbean

#37 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 18, 2008 3:10 pm

As long its up there it stays here. :)
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#38 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jul 18, 2008 3:53 pm

BEGIN
NHC
invest_DEACTIVATE_al952008.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200807182012
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 95, 2008, DB, O, 2008071712, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL952008
AL, 95, 2008071700, , BEST, 0, 133N, 792W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2008071706, , BEST, 0, 133N, 806W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2008071712, , BEST, 0, 134N, 816W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 95, 2008071718, , BEST, 0, 136N, 825W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 95, 2008071800, , BEST, 0, 137N, 831W, 30, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 95, 2008071806, , BEST, 0, 140N, 848W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

Bye!
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L in SW Caribbean

#39 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Fri Jul 18, 2008 4:14 pm

It'll be back in the East Pac...
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