ATL: Tropical Storm Cristobal in North Atlantic

[Chacor]

WOCN31 CWHX 230000
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 PM ADT
TUESDAY 22 JULY 2008.

AN INTERMEDIATE STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 12.00 MIDNIGHT ADT
FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE STATEMENT AY 3.00 AM ADT.

...TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL MOVING SOUTH OF SABLE ISLAND..RAINFALL
ENDING OVER CAPE BRETON...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 PM ADT... TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 43.4 N AND LONGITUDE 60.6 W... ABOUT 35 NAUTICAL MILES
OR 70 KM SOUTHWEST OF SABLE ISLAND . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS... 83 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
1002 MB. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 25 KNOTS...45
KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
JUL 22 9.00 PM 43.4N 60.6W 1002 45 83
JUL 23 3.00 AM 44.1N 58.5W 1004 40 74
JUL 23 9.00 AM 44.5N 56.0W 1006 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 23 3.00 PM 44.6N 53.5W 1008 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 23 9.00 PM 44.4N 51.0W 1008 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 24 3.00 AM 43.8N 48.7W 1009 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 24 9.00 AM 43.0N 46.1W 1009 30 56 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 24 3.00 PM 42.1N 43.7W 1010 30 56 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 24 9.00 PM 40.9N 41.3W 1011 30 56 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
ALL RAINFALL WARNINGS HAVE ENDED FOR NOVA SCOTIA. THE ONLY FURTHER
LAND IMPACTS EXPECTED WOULD BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
NEWFOUNDLAND WHERE SOME DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A SUMMARY OF RAINFALL OBSERVATIONS AND
IMPACTS APPEARED IN THE 6 PM INTERMEDIATE BULLETIN AND WILL NOT
BE REPEATED HERE. A MORE THOROUGH SUMMARY WILL APPEAR IN A LATER
BULLETIN ON WEDNESDAY.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
GALE FORCE WINDS UP TO 45 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AND OCCURRING OVER
SLOPE WATERS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. THESE WINDS WILL EASE
OVERNIGHT. GALE FORCE SOUTHWESTERLIES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHERN GRAND BANKS ON WEDNESDAY.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
CURRENTLY THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH CRISTOBAL AND THE WARM
FRONT TO THE NORTH WHICH GAVE THE HEAVY RAIN TO NOVA SCOTIA ARE
SEPERATE ENTITIES. BASED ON THIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THE STORM
IS STILL RETAINING TROPICAL CHARACTER. SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR STORM
FORCE WERE REPORTED AT BUOY 44137 JUST SOUTH OF THE STORM AT 21Z.

B. PROGNOSTIC
ONCE AGAIN WE ACCELLERATE THE FORWARD MOTION/TRACK FORECAST
EVEN FURTHER BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR
CHANGE IN THINKING FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. EXPECTING ET TO BE
COMPLETE TOMORROW MORNING AND THE TRACK TO BEND TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST WHILE THE INTENSITY WEAKENS.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
SEE ABOVE.

D. MARINE WEATHER

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
23/00Z 90 160 60 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
23/06Z 60 180 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
23/12Z 60 180 75 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
23/18Z 0 180 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
24/00Z 0 180 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
24/06Z 0 150 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

END FOGARTY/BOWYER/CAMPBELL

[HURAKAN]

Could Cristóbal make the case for hurricane intensity? We shall know in the post-analysis.

[Ad Novoxium]

Stick a fork in it, it's done.

000
WTNT43 KNHC 230848
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008
500 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2008

ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION HAS
DISSIPATED AND CRISTOBAL NO LONGER HAS THE APPEARANCE OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THE FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS USING
GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT ALSO SUGGEST THAT CRISTOBAL HAS TRANSITIONED
INTO AN ASYMMETRIC COLD CORE LOW...I.E. AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.
WITH THAT...CRISTOBAL IS DECLARED EXTRATROPICAL AND THIS WILL BE
THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CRISTOBAL CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

THE DEGRADATION OF THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE SUGGEST CRISTOBAL HAS
WEAKENED SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT. SINCE DYNAMICAL
MODELS INDICATE A LACK OF BAROCLINIC FORCING...CONTINUED WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO PRIOR TO CRISTOBAL MERGING
WITH OR BEING ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0900Z 44.7N 55.9W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
12HR VT 23/1800Z 45.3N 51.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 24/0600Z 44.4N 44.8W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 24/1800Z 42.6N 38.7W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 25/0600Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[HarlequinBoy]

Adios Cristobal!

[HURAKAN]

ACE: 3.06.

¡Gracias Cristóbal!

[americanrebel]

Wow, she went ET pretty fast, thought it would take a couple more days. My question is if she follows the path that was projected and reforms into a TC would it still be Cristobal or be a new name?

[HURAKAN]

If Bertha is female, and Dolly is female, then Cristóbal is ______ ?

If the LLC survives to redevelopment, then the same name applies. If it redevelops, but now it has a new LLC, then a new name applies. I don't think that will happen.

[Chacor]

Wow, she went ET pretty fast, thought it would take a couple more days. My question is if she follows the path that was projected and reforms into a TC would it still be Cristobal or be a new name?

1) Cristobal is a male name - surrounded by Bertha and Dolly.
2) TCs that become extratropical hardly ever tropically regenerate. Furthermore the extratropical storm is forecast to get absorbed. No chance.

[Chacor]

The results from the Cristobal forecasting challenge are now up.

[CrazyC83]

Don't let the crash on you Cristobal! See you in 2014!

[HURAKAN]

[senorpepr]