ATL: Tropical Storm Cristobal in North Atlantic

[RL3AO]

BEGIN
NHC
invest_al962008.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200807171829
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 96, 2008, DB, O, 2008071718, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL962008
AL, 96, 2008071700, , BEST, 0, 290N, 805W, 15, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2008071706, , BEST, 0, 295N, 805W, 15, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2008071712, , BEST, 0, 301N, 805W, 15, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2008071718, , BEST, 0, 305N, 803W, 20, 1013, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 80, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

['CaneFreak]

ok....good enough...my fault....didnt see that...LOL..

[tolakram]

Yea, I see they upgraded the area to orange and now say development is possible. Talk about a sea change (pun intended).



ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

...

3. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED NEAR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 75 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW DRIFTS TO THE NORTH OR
NORTH-NORTHEAST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB

[WeatherWiseGuy]

Circulation is easy to see on Jax radar: http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[tolakram]

From Derek's page http://www.nwhhc.com/satellite.html

[Cyclone1]

This one looks far better than both other Invests. I'd say it has a major shot at depression.

[senorpepr]

Ensure you've refreshed for the latest maps!
Updates hourly at :30


Tropical Storm Cristobal (03L)

Surface Pressure and Plots


Surface Streamlines and Plots


Sea Surface Temperatures

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Looks pretty good.

[brunota2003]

And looking at the motion, according to the NHC (N or NNE), it would make landfall in the Carolinas...judging by the slow movement, it also has a couple days to get its act together.

Question is, if it does, how quickly does it? The Gulf Stream can brew some really bad storms in a hurry.

[HarlequinBoy]

What direction will this likely move?

[RL3AO]

Finally up on NRL.

[brunota2003]

And encase you all missed it:

EATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT THU 17 JULY 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z JULY 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-047 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA...(CARIBBEAN SEA)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 (NO CHANGE)
A. 18/1800Z
B. AFXXX 04AAA CYCLONE
C. 18/1445Z
D. 13.5N 73.0W
E. 18/1700Z TO 18/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71 (CORRECTED)
A. 19/0600Z
B. AFXXX 05AAA CYCLONE
C. 19/0200Z........(CORRECTED FOR DATE)
D. 14.0N 76.5W
E. 19/0500Z TO 17/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. BEGIN 6 HRLY FIXES ON CARIBBEAN SYSTEM AT 19/1800Z.
B. POSSIBLE MISSION INTO W ATLANTIC SYSTEM AT 32.5N
78.0W FOR 19/1800Z.

[Sanibel]

Atlantic showing favorability.

[dizzyfish]

Dang! Looks like the Atlantic is trying to catch up with the EPAC in short order!
I've been watching this spin for two days now. Dumped a lot of rain on us. I sure hope it doesn't get together and cause anyone big problems!

[RL3AO]

Saturday might be too late.

[brunota2003]

Saturday might be too late.

If it does develop, I think you'll see that date shift in a hurry...especially if it looks like it'll hit anywhere.

[HurricaneHunter914]

So many invests, so many to choose from!

[storms in NC]

I say Welcome to N.C. Most wanted rain the farms need. A nice TD with little wind. Come on and see us and you gift of rain.

But I really need to watch this my Family is leaving Friday for Ft Myers for a wedding. I am broke or I'd be with them. They will take I 95 all the way down.
It will be a ruff ride to say.

[storms in NC]

And encase you all missed it:

EATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT THU 17 JULY 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z JULY 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-047 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA...(CARIBBEAN SEA)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 (NO CHANGE)
A. 18/1800Z
B. AFXXX 04AAA CYCLONE
C. 18/1445Z
D. 13.5N 73.0W
E. 18/1700Z TO 18/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71 (CORRECTED)
A. 19/0600Z
B. AFXXX 05AAA CYCLONE
C. 19/0200Z........(CORRECTED FOR DATE)
D. 14.0N 76.5W
E. 19/0500Z TO 17/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. BEGIN 6 HRLY FIXES ON CARIBBEAN SYSTEM AT 19/1800Z.
B. POSSIBLE MISSION INTO W ATLANTIC SYSTEM AT 32.5N
78.0W FOR 19/1800Z.

I am at 34.9N 77.9W