ATL: Tropical Storm Cristobal in North Atlantic

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HURAKAN
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#741 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jul 20, 2008 2:24 pm

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Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 190015.GIF

It may look like the center has moved westward but to me it looks like the convection has been the one moving westward to cover the center.
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#742 Postby KWT » Sun Jul 20, 2008 2:35 pm

Yep that big flare is just what this system needed IMO, looking a little better again lets see how long it can hold this, may be the start of a slight strengthening phase that was predicted.
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#743 Postby NC George » Sun Jul 20, 2008 2:43 pm

fact789 wrote:any western nudge could endanger Cape Cod (ironically)


Yes, please explain the irony of a Cape Cod swipe. I'm dying to know.
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#744 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jul 20, 2008 3:29 pm

Image

Deep convection now covers the center.
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#745 Postby Bane » Sun Jul 20, 2008 3:30 pm

shhhh! you might get someone to post on this thread if it starts intensifying.
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#746 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Jul 20, 2008 3:32 pm

It shows well on the radar to the South and East of the center...still aint crap over land:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no
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#747 Postby KWT » Sun Jul 20, 2008 4:10 pm

This is starting to look much better again I think Cristobal is starting to strengthen again...
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#748 Postby capepoint » Sun Jul 20, 2008 4:25 pm

I'm in Morehead City, and the clouds that are flowing out towards the storm are just not very thick or dark. Has not rained here in quite some time, sun has been out for most of the past 2 hours. All of this means that IMO there is still a lot of dry air headed into the center, at least from this direction.
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#749 Postby hiflyer » Sun Jul 20, 2008 4:28 pm

Aviation advisories are up
WSUS31 KKCI 202055
SIGE
CONVECTIVE SIGMET 52E
VALID UNTIL 2255Z
VA NC AND CSTL WTRS
FROM ORF-170ESE ECG-130SE ILM-30NNW ILM-ORF
AREA SEV TS MOV LTL. TOPS TO FL450.
WIND GUSTS TO 55KT POSS.
TS ASSOCD WITH T.S. CRISTOBAL.

again tops back up now to 45k.....
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#750 Postby KWT » Sun Jul 20, 2008 4:36 pm

Yeah hiflyer those high tops are probably with that large convective blob that has just gone up recently.
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Cristobal near Southeast U.S

#751 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sun Jul 20, 2008 4:55 pm

Gonna take one last shot at being a hurricane, I guess.
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#752 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jul 20, 2008 4:59 pm

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#753 Postby KWT » Sun Jul 20, 2008 5:00 pm

This does look really interesting right now, may well make it to a strong TS if it can hold this sort of apperence IMO.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Cristobal near Southeast U.S

#754 Postby cpdaman » Sun Jul 20, 2008 5:03 pm

she has an appendage hanging all the way down to 30 N or just thought i'd mention this almost a separate ball of convection
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#755 Postby LAwxrgal » Sun Jul 20, 2008 5:06 pm

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Cristobal will skirt the Outer Banks as a moderate tropical storm before racing northeastward to the Canadian maritimes. He looks to be strengthening a bit over the Gulf Stream waters. Still lots of dry air on the west side of the system, that's why North Carolina isn't seeing much precipitation.
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#756 Postby KWT » Sun Jul 20, 2008 5:06 pm

Its certainly interesting to look at cpdaman, could be helping to fire off some more convection as well but I'm not sure yet.
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#757 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Sun Jul 20, 2008 5:14 pm

Didn't appear to affect land much at all...


Seems Dolly is the first legitimate chance at a Hurricane U.S. landfall in quite some time..
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#758 Postby KWT » Sun Jul 20, 2008 5:17 pm

Well its been less then a year Weatherfreak000 since Humberto but who knows about Dolly, thats for another place...

I suspect this could yet reach 55kts and reach decent strength TS before getting too far north. Depends whether it sucks up any dry air again.
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Re:

#759 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sun Jul 20, 2008 5:31 pm

Weatherfreak000 wrote:Didn't appear to affect land much at all...


Seems Dolly is the first legitimate chance at a Hurricane U.S. landfall in quite some time..



Hurricane Humberto hit just West of the Louisiana state line in Texas last year.
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#760 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jul 20, 2008 5:46 pm

Image

I think that as the system starts to move away from land it should get better organized.
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