ATL: Tropical Storm Cristobal in North Atlantic

[CrazyC83]

I'd say Cristobal is 60 kt right now, and the center is misplaced - it is around 36N I think.

[HURAKAN]

[KG4HPN]

I had to do a complete system re-install over the winter and I've lost all my nifty links. Can someone who still has them tell me what the models are showing past the time frame of the spaghetti plots? I'm really curious to know if any of them show Cristobal pulling off this loop!

[Cyclone1]

Cristobal has surprised me so far at holding together this well. I would almost be willing to safely predict a hurricane.

[tropicana]

ENVIRONMENT CANADA WARNINGS
Halifax Metro and Halifax County West
3:48 PM ADT Monday 21 July 2008
Rainfall warning for
Halifax Metro and Halifax County West issued

Total rainfall amounts of 50 millimetres are expected in the above regions tonight and Tuesday.

This is a warning that significant rainfall is expected or occurring in these regions. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.
A frontal system over Nova Scotia will continue to give periods of rain tonight. The rain will be at times heavy with thundershowers especially over southwestern sections overnight.

On Tuesday tropical storm Cristobal will approach from the southwest and move to lie south of Halifax Tuesday evening. Storm force winds should remain well offshore with this system with gale force winds brushing the Atlantic coast. Heavy rain and thundershowers will accompany Cristobal over all of Nova Scotia with the highest amounts in the southwest and along the Atlantic coast. 50 millimetres of rain is forecast for these areas with local amounts upwards to 100 millimetres possible. The rain should end from west to east Tuesday night as Cristobal moves east of Nova Scotia.

[HURAKAN]

AL, 03, 2008072200, , BEST, 0, 374N, 707W, 50, 1002,

Winds have actually decreased.

[chadtm80]

[Stephanie]

Cristobal looks like he's going for a ride around the Bermuda High.

So far, Bertha has been the longest living tropical storm. Can Cristobal do an encore??

[kurtpage]

I had to do a complete system re-install over the winter and I've lost all my nifty links. Can someone who still has them tell me what the models are showing past the time frame of the spaghetti plots? I'm really curious to know if any of them show Cristobal pulling off this loop!

Is this what you are looking for?

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/

[KG4HPN]

I had to do a complete system re-install over the winter and I've lost all my nifty links. Can someone who still has them tell me what the models are showing past the time frame of the spaghetti plots? I'm really curious to know if any of them show Cristobal pulling off this loop!

Is this what you are looking for?

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/

That wasn't it, but that's a good one to add to my wx folder. What I'm looking for is a website that shows the animation of models and includes the Atlantic basin on the map. I found the NOAA site with model graphics, but everything I'm seeing is CONUS and doesn't show the Atlantic basin at all...

[RL3AO]

I had to do a complete system re-install over the winter and I've lost all my nifty links. Can someone who still has them tell me what the models are showing past the time frame of the spaghetti plots? I'm really curious to know if any of them show Cristobal pulling off this loop!

Is this what you are looking for?

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/

That wasn't it, but that's a good one to add to my wx folder. What I'm looking for is a website that shows the animation of models and includes the Atlantic basin on the map. I found the NOAA site with model graphics, but everything I'm seeing is CONUS and doesn't show the Atlantic basin at all...

You mean this?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/index_carib.shtml

or maybe this?
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[KG4HPN]

That wasn't it, but that's a good one to add to my wx folder. What I'm looking for is a website that shows the animation of models and includes the Atlantic basin on the map. I found the NOAA site with model graphics, but everything I'm seeing is CONUS and doesn't show the Atlantic basin at all...

You mean this?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/index_carib.shtml

or maybe this?
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/[/quote]

That second one was the one I was looking for, thanks!!!

[HURAKAN]

AL, 03, 2008072212, , BEST, 0, 400N, 672W, 55, 1000, TS,

55 knots!

[Chacor]

Probably baroclinic.

WOCN31 CWHX 221200
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM ADT
TUESDAY 22 JULY 2008.

AN INTERMEDIATE STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 12.00 NOON ADT FOLLOWED
BY THE NEXT COMPLETE STATEMENT BY 3.00 PM ADT.

...TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO ATLANTIC
COASTAL NOVA SCOTIA...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 AM ADT... TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 39.8 N AND LONGITUDE 67.1 W... ABOUT 250 NAUTICAL MILES
OR 460 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YARMOUTH NOVA SCOTIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS... 93 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE
AT 1002 MB. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 KNOTS... 37 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
JUL 22 9.00 AM 39.8N 67.1W 1002 50 93
JUL 22 3.00 PM 41.2N 65.2W 1004 40 74
JUL 22 9.00 PM 42.6N 63.0W 1004 40 74 TRANSITIONING
JUL 23 3.00 AM 43.7N 60.5W 1006 40 74 TRANSITIONING
JUL 23 9.00 AM 44.3N 57.9W 1008 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 23 3.00 PM 44.7N 55.3W 1008 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 23 9.00 PM 44.7N 52.9W 1009 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 24 3.00 AM 44.6N 50.7W 1009 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 24 9.00 AM 44.0N 48.4W 1010 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 24 3.00 PM 43.3N 46.4W 1010 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 24 9.00 PM 42.4N 44.5W 1011 30 56 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 25 3.00 AM 40.9N 42.9W 1012 25 46 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 25 9.00 AM 39.4N 41.9W 1013 20 37 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
REGIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA WHERE RAINFALL WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT.
STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 50 TO 100 MM ARE FORECAST WITH SOME AREAS
SUCH AS CAPE SABLE POSSIBLY RECEIVING IN EXCESS OF 150 MM.
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ALSO OCCURRING ALONG THE PRIMARY
FRONTAL ZONE NORTH OF THE STORM.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA AND CAPE BRETON LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. IT WILL
TRACK FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO PREVENT STRONG WINDS FROM AFFECTING
THE LAND AREAS.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
THE CENTRE OF CRISTOBAL WILL PASS OVER SOUTHERN GEORGES BANK EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON THEN CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD PASSING SOUTH OF SABLE
ISLAND TONIGHT THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GRAND BANKS OF
NEWFOUNDLAND ON WEDNESDAY.

GALE FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS ARE PREDICTED SOUTH OF THE
TRACK. GALE WARNINGS ARE MAINTAINED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF
NOVA SCOTIA AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTHERN GRAND BANKS.

SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 6 TO 9 M ARE POSSIBLE OVER SLOPE
WATERS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEOROLOGISTS

A. ANALYSIS
CONVECTION REMAINS DEEP AROUND AND NORTH OF THE STORM CENTER AND
IS STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA.
HEAVY RAINFALL HAS BEEN OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST WITH OVER 100 MM
AT CAPE SABLE AS OF 8 AM AND OVER 50 MM AT WESTERN HEAD NEAR
LIVERPOOL. THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE MOISTURE STREAM
LEADING TO EVEN GREATER AMOUNTS.

B. PROGNOSTIC
THE ACTUAL STORM TRACK FORECAST IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. CONSEQUENTLY..THE HEAVIEST RAINFALLS OVER
NOVA SCOTIA SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE GEM
MODEL SEEMS TO TRACK THE CENTER OF THE LOW TOO FAR TO THE NORTH.
THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF CONCERN WITH THIS EVENT IS THE FRONTAL
TROUGH WITH MOISTURE PLUME TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM AFFECTING
NOVA SCOTIA. MOST DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE INDICATING THIS BUT ARE
UNDERESTIMATING THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS.


C. PUBLIC WEATHER
RAINFALL IMPACTS DISCUSSED ABOVE. WIND FIELD FROM THE STORM WILL
NOT..REPEAT..NOT..AFFECT NOVA SCOTIA.

D. MARINE WEATHER
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
TRACK WHILE MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST NORTH OF THE
TRACK.


PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
22/12Z 60 120 60 20 0 60 0 0 0 0 0 0
22/18Z 90 135 60 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
23/00Z 120 150 75 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
23/06Z 120 150 75 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
23/12Z 100 150 75 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
23/18Z 60 150 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
24/00Z 0 120 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
24/06Z 0 120 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
24/12Z 0 120 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
24/18Z 0 120 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

WIND RADII DO NOT HAVE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AFTER 24/18Z.
CHC TRAPPED FETCH WAVE MODEL INDICATES MAX SIG WAVES OF 10 OR 11 M
POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE STORM TRACK.

END FOGARTY/BOWYER

[HURAKAN]

Yeah, Chacor, most likely baroclinic, like we saw with Bertha.

[HURAKAN]

Cristóbal's winds should be raised to at least 60 knots in the post-analysis.

[Chacor]

Officially up to 55 kts in advisory. Extratropical forecast soon.

Other bits:
A 1013 SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED A BANDED EYE STRUCTURE WITH
CRISTOBAL.
THE WINDS ARE INCREASED CONSERVATIVELY TO 55 KT.

[CrazyC83]

Suggesting it is conservative, the post-analysis should indeed raise them to 60 kt. The tropical storm-force winds probably should remain offshore, but not by much - maybe a tropical storm watch should be issued for the Nova Scotia coast?

[HURAKAN]

Cristóbal could have been a hurricane or very close.

[cpdaman]

post season my money is they change her to cat 1 hurricane (when she was in GS) east of New jersey