ATL: Tropical Storm Cristobal Model Runs

[Recurve]

If it stays weak, I hope all the rain isn't over the ocean, for those who need it.

Wouldn't that be typical though -- rain east and north -- for a system that's not a well-formed stronger TC?

[brunota2003]

For a Carolina Hugger, yes the rain being on the N and East side of the storm would be fairly typical. Proximity to land typically deters development on the western half.

[Scott_inVA]

Freebie 1st model map for AL032008



Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm

[brunota2003]

if it stays weak, the loop wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing.

But at the same time, it can be. It is slow moving, so it would possibly bring flooding...Anyone remember Dennis the Menace in 1999, and what came after he did his loopy loop?

not sure this is like dennis

I know...was just saying if it were to loop, it would be similar to Dennis in 1999.

[storms in NC]

well wouldn't you know i see a loop.... that is not surprising at all since the trough that is supposed pick this up is hardly anywhere to be found .. also kind of creepy it makes landfall in NC than does a loop to make landfall again in nearly the same spot that would be interesting to watch lol not good for the residents but interesting

if it stays weak, the loop wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing.

But at the same time, it can be. It is slow moving, so it would possibly bring flooding...Anyone remember Dennis the Menace in 1999, and what came after he did his loopy loop?

Yes I lost my house. had to rebuild. And my daughter got married the 18th no one from my family went we all flooded. it was a funny thing she to took her dress to the Chruch. Thank God she did. We all live right here on the farm. there is 3 homes here. So I know it quite well.

So you in Jacksonville? I was born and raised there in Northwoods.

[brunota2003]

Nope, up in the Cherry Point region...close enough to the beaches for there to be no difference, though.

[Bane]

well wouldn't you know i see a loop.... that is not surprising at all since the trough that is supposed pick this up is hardly anywhere to be found .. also kind of creepy it makes landfall in NC than does a loop to make landfall again in nearly the same spot that would be interesting to watch lol not good for the residents but interesting


if it stays weak, the loop wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing.

But at the same time, it can be. It is slow moving, so it would possibly bring flooding...Anyone remember Dennis the Menace in 1999, and what came after he did his loopy loop?

not sure this is like dennis

it definitely could be bad if it looped, but if it stays weak, the rain would likely not be as concentrated, keeping flooding at a minimum.

[brunota2003]

Looks like this is the current model image:

[storms in NC]

That is more like ENE and not NE

[cycloneye]

WHXX04 KWBC 191127
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE 03L

INITIAL TIME 6Z JUL 19

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 32.2 79.7 35./ 5.0
6 32.5 79.4 39./ 4.3
12 33.0 78.8 48./ 7.0
18 33.4 78.2 61./ 6.8
24 33.8 77.4 60./ 7.6
30 34.3 76.6 61./ 8.3
36 34.7 76.1 46./ 5.8
42 35.4 75.9 16./ 7.2
48 35.9 74.9 65./ 9.6
54 37.0 74.4 25./11.2

STORM DISSIPATED AT 54 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

[cycloneye]

SHIP intensity peaks at 56kts.

497
WHXX01 KWBC 191237
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1237 UTC SAT JUL 19 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE (AL032008) 20080719 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080719 1200 080720 0000 080720 1200 080721 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 32.4N 78.8W 33.0N 78.0W 33.5N 77.0W 33.7N 75.3W
BAMD 32.4N 78.8W 32.9N 78.6W 33.3N 77.7W 33.5N 76.3W
BAMM 32.4N 78.8W 33.0N 78.1W 33.4N 77.2W 33.6N 75.4W
LBAR 32.4N 78.8W 33.0N 78.0W 33.8N 76.9W 34.3N 75.3W
SHIP 30KTS 33KTS 36KTS 38KTS
DSHP 30KTS 33KTS 36KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080721 1200 080722 1200 080723 1200 080724 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 34.0N 73.3W 34.9N 69.1W 37.7N 66.0W 43.9N 59.9W
BAMD 33.9N 75.0W 36.3N 72.0W 42.0N 66.1W 50.1N 55.6W
BAMM 34.0N 73.9W 36.1N 70.0W 40.8N 65.2W 48.4N 56.0W
LBAR 34.9N 73.6W 38.3N 69.3W 49.6N 59.0W .0N .0W
SHIP 42KTS 56KTS 45KTS 35KTS
DSHP 42KTS 56KTS 45KTS 35KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 32.4N LONCUR = 78.8W DIRCUR = 50DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 31.7N LONM12 = 79.8W DIRM12 = 40DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 31.1N LONM24 = 80.5W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[cycloneye]

SHIP up to 60 kts:

226
WHXX01 KWBC 191903
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1903 UTC SAT JUL 19 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL (AL032008) 20080719 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080719 1800 080720 0600 080720 1800 080721 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 32.8N 78.2W 33.3N 77.3W 33.8N 76.1W 34.3N 74.2W
BAMD 32.8N 78.2W 33.2N 77.7W 33.7N 76.8W 34.1N 75.5W
BAMM 32.8N 78.2W 33.2N 77.4W 33.7N 76.2W 34.1N 74.6W
LBAR 32.8N 78.2W 33.2N 77.1W 33.7N 76.0W 34.1N 74.6W
SHIP 40KTS 48KTS 52KTS 53KTS
DSHP 40KTS 48KTS 52KTS 53KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080721 1800 080722 1800 080723 1800 080724 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 35.1N 71.9W 36.7N 66.8W 40.4N 62.3W 45.6N 54.7W
BAMD 35.1N 74.2W 39.1N 69.3W 47.0N 59.7W 51.8N 43.9W
BAMM 35.0N 72.8W 38.2N 67.6W 44.4N 59.7W 49.6N 47.4W
LBAR 34.5N 73.3W 37.6N 69.9W 41.4N 62.3W 43.7N 54.6W
SHIP 55KTS 60KTS 44KTS 32KTS
DSHP 55KTS 60KTS 44KTS 32KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 32.8N LONCUR = 78.2W DIRCUR = 50DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 32.2N LONM12 = 79.4W DIRM12 = 50DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 31.3N LONM24 = 80.3W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 165NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[brunota2003]

Also of note, they bumped the winds up to 40 knots, or 45 mph...pressure down to 1006 millibars.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 200041
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0041 UTC SUN JUL 20 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL (AL032008) 20080720 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080720 0000 080720 1200 080721 0000 080721 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 33.2N 77.8W 34.0N 77.1W 34.8N 75.5W 35.7N 73.5W
BAMD 33.2N 77.8W 33.6N 77.1W 34.0N 75.9W 34.7N 75.0W
BAMM 33.2N 77.8W 33.8N 77.1W 34.4N 75.6W 35.1N 74.1W
LBAR 33.2N 77.8W 33.8N 76.9W 34.4N 75.7W 34.9N 74.4W
SHIP 40KTS 45KTS 48KTS 51KTS
DSHP 40KTS 45KTS 48KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080722 0000 080723 0000 080724 0000 080725 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 37.1N 70.8W 40.7N 64.9W 45.1N 57.4W 45.4N 49.1W
BAMD 35.9N 73.6W 41.0N 68.3W 48.2N 59.4W 49.8N 46.6W
BAMM 36.5N 72.1W 40.8N 66.2W 46.5N 57.8W 46.9N 46.7W
LBAR 35.8N 72.9W 39.9N 68.2W 50.6N 53.2W .0N .0W
SHIP 53KTS 50KTS 39KTS 25KTS
DSHP 53KTS 50KTS 36KTS 22KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 33.2N LONCUR = 77.8W DIRCUR = 45DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 32.4N LONM12 = 78.8W DIRM12 = 59DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 31.7N LONM24 = 79.8W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 165NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[brunota2003]

I honestly do not see this thing making it to more than 45 knots, at most.

[vacanechaser]

I honestly do not see this thing making it to more than 45 knots, at most.

i think i remember alex having some problems too, to start... its got plenty of time...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[brunota2003]

True...but I dont think Alex was this close to the coast with as much dry air...and it certainly was not nearly as...lopsided. Alex was fairly decent in terms of winds and rain.

It is possible it refires tonight, but I do not think any coastal areas will receive [sustained] winds stronger than 30 mph (excluding the Outer Banks and extreme coastal Carteret County).

The only exception might be if it can develop some stronger bands.

[HURAKAN]

Shear of hurricane-force intensity. Something to cheer about!!!

Code: Select all

                    *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *        GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED            *
                    *   CRISTOBAL  AL032008  07/20/08  12 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    45    46    46    47    49    52    54    52    47    39    42    37    29
V (KT) LAND       45    46    46    47    49    52    54    44    38    33    36    32    23
V (KT) LGE mod    45    47    48    50    51    54    53    41    39    34    33    34    38

SHEAR (KTS)        8     6     9     5     1    20    31    48    65    64    25    27    23
SHEAR DIR         13    25    18    34   351   246   230   230   242   278   288   306   335
SST (C)         26.6  26.2  26.1  26.0  26.2  24.7  16.3  15.3  11.9   8.2   9.6   9.2  10.3
POT. INT. (KT)   118   115   114   114   117   105    74    73    70    67    67    66    67
ADJ. POT. INT.    99    96    96    97   100    92    70    70    67    66    65    65    65
200 MB T (C)   -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.9 -54.2 -54.0 -54.3 -53.5 -54.0 -56.3 -58.1 -57.3 -55.6
TH_E DEV (C)       7    11    11     9     9     8     3     0     0     0     0     0     0
700-500 MB RH     39    39    45    47    43    43    43    47    39    39    40    44    48
GFS VTEX (KT)     10    10    10     9    10    12    14    13    10     4    11    10     8
850 MB ENV VOR   -64   -60   -42   -15     0    39   101    70    24   -59   -70   -83     1
200 MB DIV         1     1     4     6    25    14    27    19   -15   -48   -52   -31   -21
LAND (KM)         73    52    71   144   223   305   245   -40    -3   126   498   867  1244
LAT (DEG N)     34.1  34.6  35.0  35.7  36.4  38.5  41.7  45.0  48.6  51.4  53.5  55.2  56.1
LONG(DEG W)     76.7  76.0  75.3  74.3  73.3  70.5  67.3  63.3  58.6  53.7  48.4  43.0  37.2
STM SPEED (KT)     7     7     9    11    13    17    21    23    23    20    19    17    17
HEAT CONTENT       1     0     0     0     1     0     0  9999     0     0     0     0     0

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/  6      CX,CY:   5/  4
  T-12 MAX WIND:  40            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  683  (MEAN=625)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD:  17.7 (MEAN=20.0)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:   3.0 (MEAN=68.6)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  10.  11.  12.  12.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL         -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -6.  -8.  -9. -10. -11. -12. -12.
  VERTICAL SHEAR         1.   3.   5.   7.  10.  13.  14.  14.  14.  15.  14.  11.
  PERSISTENCE            1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   5.   9.  12.  15.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -4.  -7. -10. -13. -15. -18.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.  -1.  -1.   0.   2.   1.  -1.  -6.  -1.  -2.  -3.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -1.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.  -1.  -2.  -4.  -5.  -5.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -7.  -7.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SUB-TOTAL CHANGE       1.   2.   3.   5.   9.  11.   8.   2.  -7.  -4.  -8. -14.

  SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
  MEAN ADJUSTMENT        0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  GOES IR STD DEV        0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES IR PIXEL COUNT   -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -2.  -2.  -1.   1.   3.   3.   3.   0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL ADJUSTMENT      -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -2.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE (KT)      1.   1.   2.   4.   7.   9.   7.   2.  -6.  -3.  -8. -16.

   ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032008  CRISTOBAL 07/20/08  12 UTC **
           ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   5.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  1.2
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   5.8 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  1.5
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :   7.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.2
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :  52.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.3
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  62.8 Range: 56.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.1
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:   1.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.0/  0.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :   7.5 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  1.1
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :   0.4 Range:  0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.0/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=     4% is   0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=     3% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     1% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032008  CRISTOBAL 07/20/08  12 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY             


[storm4u]

where can i find a updated model chart?