ATL: Tropical Storm Cristobal Model Runs

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139083
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

ATL: Tropical Storm Cristobal Model Runs

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 17, 2008 1:33 pm

WHXX01 KWBC 171830
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1830 UTC THU JUL 17 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962008) 20080717 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080717 1800 080718 0600 080718 1800 080719 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 30.5N 80.3W 30.9N 80.6W 31.3N 80.8W 31.5N 81.0W

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080719 1800 080720 1800 080721 1800 080722 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 31.8N 81.2W 32.3N 80.6W 32.0N 76.5W 32.3N 74.6W

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 30.5N LONCUR = 80.3W DIRCUR = 5DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 29.5N LONM12 = 80.5W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 28.0N LONM24 = 80.7W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 15KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 80NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 19165
Age: 60
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: Tropical Depression Three Model Runs

#2 Postby tolakram » Thu Jul 17, 2008 1:40 pm

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139083
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L Model Runs

#3 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 17, 2008 1:44 pm

They added the SHIP numbers:

WHXX01 KWBC 171833
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1833 UTC THU JUL 17 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962008) 20080717 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080717 1800 080718 0600 080718 1800 080719 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.5N 80.3W 31.3N 80.9W 32.4N 81.5W 33.0N 81.8W
BAMD 30.5N 80.3W 30.9N 80.6W 31.3N 80.8W 31.5N 81.0W
BAMM 30.5N 80.3W 31.1N 80.6W 31.8N 80.8W 32.2N 80.9W
LBAR 30.5N 80.3W 30.9N 80.4W 31.6N 80.8W 32.6N 80.8W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 24KTS 26KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 24KTS 24KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080719 1800 080720 1800 080721 1800 080722 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 33.8N 81.6W 34.5N 79.5W 34.7N 74.7W 36.1N 69.6W
BAMD 31.8N 81.2W 32.3N 80.6W 32.0N 76.5W 32.3N 74.6W
BAMM 32.6N 80.7W 32.9N 79.2W 32.3N 75.5W 32.5N 72.8W
LBAR 33.7N 80.3W 35.5N 78.1W 37.7N 73.6W 44.9N 66.3W
SHIP 28KTS 34KTS 41KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 41KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 30.5N LONCUR = 80.3W DIRCUR = 5DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 29.5N LONM12 = 80.5W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 28.0N LONM24 = 80.7W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 15KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 80NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

0 likes   

User avatar
Stormtrack03
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 377
Age: 42
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2004 9:06 pm
Location: Downingtown, PA

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L Model Runs

#4 Postby Stormtrack03 » Thu Jul 17, 2008 1:46 pm

First model run:


Image
0 likes   

User avatar
chadtm80
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 20381
Age: 43
Joined: Tue Oct 08, 2002 8:35 am
Location: East Central Florida
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L Model Runs

#5 Postby chadtm80 » Thu Jul 17, 2008 2:19 pm

0 likes   

User avatar
brunota2003
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9476
Age: 33
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
Contact:

#6 Postby brunota2003 » Thu Jul 17, 2008 2:26 pm

Why are all the models starting the track right away to the NW, when it clearly is not heading NW?
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139083
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L Model Runs

#7 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 17, 2008 2:40 pm

SHIP forecast: Shear not a big problem:

Code: Select all

              *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *        GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED            *
                    *      INVEST  AL962008  07/17/08  18 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    20    21    22    24    24    26    28    30    34    37    41    43    43
V (KT) LAND       20    21    22    24    24    24    25    26    31    35    38    40    41
V (KT) LGE mod    20    20    21    21    22    21    24    25    30    34    39    44    48

SHEAR (KTS)        8    10    15    17    10     9     9     3     2     4     5    11    15
SHEAR DIR        358   306   323   352     4   337    29   302   273   228    51   101   111
SST (C)         27.2  27.1  27.0  26.9  26.8  26.7  26.6  26.6  26.7  27.0  26.8  26.7  26.6
POT. INT. (KT)   124   122   121   120   118   117   116   117   119   123   121   119   117
ADJ. POT. INT.   103   101   100    99    97    95    94    96    99   104   103    99    97
200 MB T (C)   -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.6
TH_E DEV (C)      10    11     7     6    10     8    10     8     9     8    10     9     8
700-500 MB RH     38    38    39    40    41    38    45    46    53    49    49    48    53
GFS VTEX (KT)      9     9     8     9     9     8     8     7     7     7     8     9    10
850 MB ENV VOR   -26   -40   -64   -76   -72   -99   -93  -112   -83   -78   -36   -25   -41
200 MB DIV       -30   -18   -19   -18   -38    -8   -22   -14    -8    13    -8    14    34
LAND (KM)        104    95    74    50    26    -7   -21   -14    29   162   292   396   426
LAT (DEG N)     30.5  30.8  31.1  31.5  31.8  32.2  32.6  32.8  32.9  32.6  32.3  32.1  32.5
LONG(DEG W)     80.3  80.5  80.6  80.7  80.8  80.9  80.7  80.2  79.2  77.5  75.5  73.7  72.8
STM SPEED (KT)     4     3     4     4     3     2     2     3     5     8     8     6     5
HEAT CONTENT       6     3     2     1     0     0  9999     0     0    14    12     6     4

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):  5/  4      CX,CY:   0/  4
  T-12 MAX WIND:  15            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  597  (MEAN=625)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD:  22.2 (MEAN=20.0)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  39.0 (MEAN=68.6)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  10.  11.  12.  12.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -1.   2.   7.  12.  16.  19.  21.  23.
  VERTICAL SHEAR         1.   4.   7.   9.  12.  14.  15.  17.  18.  19.  18.  17.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   3.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -5.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -2.  -2.  -1.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -4.  -5.  -7.  -8.  -9. -10. -10. -10.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -6.  -6.  -6.  -5.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -5.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SUB-TOTAL CHANGE       1.   2.   3.   3.   6.   8.  11.  15.  18.  22.  24.  26.

  SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
  MEAN ADJUSTMENT        0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  GOES IR STD DEV        1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   2.   2.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GOES IR PIXEL COUNT    0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL ADJUSTMENT       0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE (KT)      1.   2.   4.   4.   6.   8.  11.  14.  17.  21.  23.  23.

   ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962008     INVEST 07/17/08  18 UTC **
           ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.1
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  12.3 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  1.1
 D200 (10**7s-1)       : -24.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.0/  0.0
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :  80.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.6
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  59.4 Range: 56.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.0
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  33.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  20.4 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.6
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :   2.4 Range:  0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.0/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=     4% is   0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=     3% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     1% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962008     INVEST 07/17/08  18 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY   
0 likes   

User avatar
dixiebreeze
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5140
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 5:07 pm
Location: crystal river, fla.

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L Model Runs

#8 Postby dixiebreeze » Thu Jul 17, 2008 6:18 pm

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Savannah/Agusta might be in for a sideswipe -- or more from 96L
Last edited by dixiebreeze on Thu Jul 17, 2008 6:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

Derek Ortt

#9 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Jul 17, 2008 6:19 pm

nearly all models, including the globals have a track to the NW at the moment
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31390
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

#10 Postby KWT » Thu Jul 17, 2008 6:22 pm

Which is interesting because isn't the current movement towards the NNE/NE. If thats the case the it could be possible that the models wil lunderestimate the possible development of this system.
0 likes   

User avatar
storms in NC
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2338
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2005 2:58 pm
Location: Wallace,NC 40 miles NE of Wilm
Contact:

#11 Postby storms in NC » Thu Jul 17, 2008 6:42 pm

Well if it went straight North right now it would go into Charleston SC. Now you have to think of the Wobbles. With it bing so close to land the modles would have trouble with land fall if there would be a land fall. So any where from Ga to NC. JIMO ONLY
0 likes   

User avatar
Tstormwatcher
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3086
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2005 7:31 pm
Location: New Bern, NC

#12 Postby Tstormwatcher » Thu Jul 17, 2008 7:35 pm

Looking at the radar out of Jacksonville, looks like it is heading south although I am sure it's just a wobble.
0 likes   

User avatar
Extremeweatherguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11095
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
Location: Houston, TX

Re:

#13 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Jul 17, 2008 7:44 pm

Tstormwatcher wrote:Looking at the radar out of Jacksonville, looks like it is heading south although I am sure it's just a wobble.
I agree. Over the last few hours, the motion seems to be more W or SW based upon what I am seeing on the radar. The center of this low now looks to be just off the coast, east of Jacksonville, FL...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes

Steering currents also seem to support this W, WSW or SW motion currently taking place: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

One things for sure, the placement of this low has meant a very wet day down here in Orlando. A persistant band of rain has been set up over the area for most of the day and it is still coming down light to moderately this evening! This is the third day straight of good rains in central FL.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139083
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L Model Runs

#14 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 17, 2008 7:47 pm

WHXX01 KWBC 180026
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0026 UTC FRI JUL 18 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962008) 20080718 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080718 0000 080718 1200 080719 0000 080719 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.8N 80.4W 31.7N 81.1W 32.4N 81.5W 33.1N 81.7W
BAMD 30.8N 80.4W 31.1N 80.6W 31.4N 80.9W 31.7N 81.0W
BAMM 30.8N 80.4W 31.5N 80.8W 32.2N 81.1W 32.7N 81.2W
LBAR 30.8N 80.4W 31.3N 80.7W 32.1N 80.9W 33.1N 80.7W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 24KTS 26KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 22KTS 25KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080720 0000 080721 0000 080722 0000 080723 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 33.7N 81.4W 34.4N 78.6W 34.9N 73.5W 38.2N 68.2W
BAMD 32.1N 80.9W 33.0N 78.4W 33.4N 73.5W 36.1N 69.9W
BAMM 33.3N 80.9W 34.3N 77.9W 35.9N 72.6W 40.3N 67.7W
LBAR 34.1N 79.9W 35.8N 77.1W 38.7N 72.4W 46.0N 64.8W
SHIP 29KTS 37KTS 43KTS 50KTS
DSHP 26KTS 27KTS 35KTS 43KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 30.8N LONCUR = 80.4W DIRCUR = 5DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 30.1N LONM12 = 80.5W DIRM12 = 10DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 29.0N LONM24 = 80.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 15KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 80NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
storms in NC
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2338
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2005 2:58 pm
Location: Wallace,NC 40 miles NE of Wilm
Contact:

#15 Postby storms in NC » Fri Jul 18, 2008 7:26 am

No Model runs for 96L today cycloneye ?
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#16 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jul 18, 2008 7:29 am

802
WHXX04 KWBC 181127
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 96L

INITIAL TIME 6Z JUL 18

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 30.7 80.8 360./ 1.0
6 31.0 80.7 9./ 3.8
12 31.3 80.7 0./ 2.6
18 31.4 80.6 49./ 1.8
24 31.8 80.2 50./ 4.9
30 32.1 79.4 65./ 6.9
36 32.4 79.0 53./ 5.0
42 32.7 78.6 52./ 4.6
48 33.0 77.9 74./ 6.3
54 33.4 76.8 67./10.0

STORM DISSIPATED AT 54 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.


0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#17 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jul 18, 2008 7:30 am

092
WHXX01 KWBC 180627
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0627 UTC FRI JUL 18 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962008) 20080718 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080718 0600 080718 1800 080719 0600 080719 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.8N 80.5W 31.8N 80.8W 32.6N 80.9W 33.3N 80.6W
BAMD 30.8N 80.5W 31.1N 80.8W 31.4N 81.0W 31.7N 81.2W
BAMM 30.8N 80.5W 31.5N 80.8W 32.1N 81.0W 32.7N 80.9W
LBAR 30.8N 80.5W 31.1N 80.6W 31.8N 80.6W 32.5N 80.3W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 24KTS 27KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 22KTS 24KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080720 0600 080721 0600 080722 0600 080723 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 34.0N 79.9W 35.2N 75.9W 37.5N 70.1W 40.7N 63.4W
BAMD 32.2N 81.0W 33.0N 77.7W 33.7N 74.3W 35.4N 73.1W
BAMM 33.3N 80.4W 34.5N 76.4W 36.9N 70.7W 40.5N 64.3W
LBAR 33.4N 79.7W 35.0N 77.4W 37.7N 73.3W 43.6N 66.7W
SHIP 28KTS 39KTS 52KTS 52KTS
DSHP 26KTS 32KTS 45KTS 45KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 30.8N LONCUR = 80.5W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 1KT
LATM12 = 30.5N LONM12 = 80.3W DIRM12 = 7DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 29.5N LONM24 = 80.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 80NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN
0 likes   

cpdaman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3131
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2006 11:44 am
Location: SPB county (gulf stream)

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L Model Runs

#18 Postby cpdaman » Fri Jul 18, 2008 8:39 am

the models may be initializing too far west should the center reformation occur around 79.8.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139083
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L Model Runs

#19 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 18, 2008 9:19 am

WHXX01 KWBC 181413
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1413 UTC FRI JUL 18 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962008) 20080718 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080718 1200 080719 0000 080719 1200 080720 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 31.1N 80.5W 32.0N 80.7W 32.9N 80.9W 33.7N 80.7W
BAMD 31.1N 80.5W 31.4N 80.9W 31.7N 81.1W 31.9N 81.3W
BAMM 31.1N 80.5W 31.8N 80.7W 32.4N 80.9W 33.0N 80.8W
LBAR 31.1N 80.5W 31.5N 80.7W 32.1N 80.7W 32.9N 80.2W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 31KTS 33KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080720 1200 080721 1200 080722 1200 080723 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 34.5N 80.1W 35.5N 74.8W 37.3N 68.2W 39.9N 61.9W
BAMD 32.3N 81.3W 32.2N 78.5W 32.0N 77.5W 32.6N 78.6W
BAMM 33.6N 80.3W 34.1N 75.9W 35.5N 71.1W 37.8N 67.9W
LBAR 33.7N 79.4W 35.3N 76.3W 39.2N 70.7W 50.1N 65.4W
SHIP 35KTS 43KTS 53KTS 53KTS
DSHP 27KTS 33KTS 43KTS 43KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 31.1N LONCUR = 80.5W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT
LATM12 = 30.8N LONM12 = 80.4W DIRM12 = 330DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 30.1N LONM24 = 80.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 90NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#20 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jul 18, 2008 9:20 am

Image

Nice clustering.
0 likes   


Return to “2008”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 94 guests