TS Cristobal obs / preps / cams - NE US/Atlantic Canada

[Stephanie]

As of 0830 in Morehead City, bands of light rain moving thru and and a few periods of sunshine. Winds ene at 8-12 gusting to 21 mph in rain bands. Beaufort Inlet is a little frisky with 4-5 foot breakers from SSW, other than that nothing really significant to report. The media will really need the wind machines for their live shots this morning! Will report back if anything remarkable happens.

Will look forward to your reports and anyone else's that are in the path of Cristobal. Be safe!

[Tstormwatcher]

We are getting some good rains here, just southeast of New Bern. Winds probably in the 15 to 20 mph range. Pressure is at 1010mb and holding steady.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Winds are gusting over 30mph at Cape Hatteras right now...

Hatteras, Mitchell Field
Lat: 35.22 Lon: -75.62 Elev: 10
Last Update on Jul 20, 12:51 pm EDT

Overcast with Haze and Breezy

81°F
(27°C)
Humidity: 77 %
Wind Speed: S 23 G 32 MPH
Barometer: 29.92" (1013.0 mb)
Dewpoint: 73°F (23°C)
Heat Index: 86°F (30°C)
Visibility: 6.00 mi.
More Local Wx: 3 Day History:

[NC George]

I'm getting jack at my location. Right now I'm having a gentle breeze of 2-4 mph, skies look tropical, but no rain.

Yesterday I had one band pass through, rained hard for about 10 minutes, then stopped. Any other band that approached just fizzled out as it approached southern Pitt County.

[capepoint]

I recored a Max wind gust here in Morehead City (at my workplace near the hospital) of 28 mhp just before 1200, Very little rain today, all showers have been very light. Showers were heavier yesterday but not as frequent. 29.86 was low pressure on recorded on my barometer. I would estimate less than 1/2 inch of rain so far today.
At 1530 winds were N at 8-11 gusting to 18. Overcast with occasional breaks of sun.
Tourists are back out in force. Have heard no surf rescues today over fire dept scanner, so either people are staying out of the ocean or there are not many rips.

Thus ends todays tropical non-event, and for this we ARE thankful!

[CrazyC83]

The topic should be changed to cover the Northeast US and Atlantic Canada.

[brunota2003]

We had a total of 0.97" of rain for this system, and the pressure dropped down to about 1013 (1011 according to the nearby Air Base, so my pressure is probably off, but too lazy to fix it). I recorded a max wind gust to 12 mph (though it was gusting into the 30s at times, I blame all the trees around here! ).

[marciacubed]

Does anyone think that Cristobal might loop back toward the East coast. I remember one that did I think it was Ivan in 2004 but I am not sure. I was looking at the Water Vapor image and thought it might. I don't know anything I just like to watch the tropics so please don't yell at me if I am really off base. Thanks.

[brunota2003]

Nah, SST's are wayyy too cold up there for it to survive.

Ivan 2004 did a loop, but it was a lot lower in latitude, as it's most northern peak was southern Virginia, I believe.

For comparison, Ivan's Loop:



Cristobal's:

[CrazyC83]

WOCN31 CWHX 221800
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT
TUESDAY 22 JULY 2008.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT

...CRISTOBAL AND WARM FRONT DUMP 75 TO 150 MM ALONG ATLANTIC
COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 PM ADT... TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 41.9 N AND LONGITUDE 64.0 W... ABOUT 145 NAUTICAL MILES
OR 265 KM SOUTHEAST OF YARMOUTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS... 93 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1001
MB. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 KNOTS... 45 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
JUL 22 3.00 PM 41.9N 64.0W 1001 50 93
JUL 22 9.00 PM 43.1N 61.9W 1002 45 83
JUL 23 3.00 AM 43.9N 59.5W 1004 40 74
JUL 23 9.00 AM 44.4N 56.8W 1006 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 23 3.00 PM 44.4N 54.4W 1008 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 23 9.00 PM 44.2N 51.9W 1008 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 24 3.00 AM 43.8N 49.2W 1009 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 24 9.00 AM 43.0N 46.9W 1009 30 56 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 24 3.00 PM 42.1N 45.0W 1010 30 56 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 24 9.00 PM 41.1N 43.7W 1011 30 56 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 25 3.00 AM 40.3N 42.3W 1012 25 46 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
HEAVY RAINFALL HAS FALLEN OVER ATLANTIC COASTAL SECTIONS OF NOVA
SCOTIA AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER ATLANTIC
COASTAL SECTIONS OF EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA. HEAVY RAINFALL WARNINGS
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA.

REPORTED IMPACTS:

OBSERVED RAINFALL WITH CRISTOBAL...FROM MONDAY EVENING TO 2PM ADT
TUESDAY...INCLUDE 165 MM AT BACCARO POINT AT THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA...125 MM IN THE SAMBRO AREA NEAR HALIFAX..95
MM AT WESTERN HEAD NEAR LIVERPOOL...AND 63 MM AT SHEARWATER.
HALIFAX CITY AREA RECEIVED A RANGE OF RAINFALL FROM ABOUT 20 MM
IN THE SACKVILLE AREA TO ABOUT 45 MM DOWNTOWN. THE PUBLIC ALSO
REPORTED FLOODED BASEMENTS IN THE CAPE SABLE AREA AND ROAD
WASHOUTS NEAR SAMBRO INCLUDING A WASHOUT OF THE ROAD TO CRYSTAL
CRESCENT BEACH.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SLOPE WATERS AND SOUTHERN GRAND
BANKS. SIG WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 7 METRES ARE EXPECTED OVER SLOPE
WATERS AS THE STORM PASSES TO THE NORTH. GALES HAVE YET TO BE
REPORTED FROM THE MARINE DISTRICT HOWEVER THERE IS LITTLE DATA.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWING TROPICAL CHARACTER OF CRISTOBAL
WITH A PERSISTENT BALL OF CONVECTION LOCATED AT THE STORM CENTRE.
MOISTURE FROM CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO FEED A WARM FRONT CONNECTED
TO THE NORTHERN PART THE STORM. THIS HAS BEEN THE MAIN SOURCE OF
RAINFALL OVER NOVA SCOTIA. MICROWAVE AND SCATTEROMETER IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY TO THE SE
OF THE STORM CENTRE. GOES IMAGERY INDICATES A FASTER FORWARD
SPEED THAN EARLIER FORECAST. INITIAL POSITION REFLECTS THIS.

B. PROGNOSTIC
NOTHING FANCY HERE..CONTINUING WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND
INTENSITY FOR THE MOST PART. THE STORM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND
ROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE SOUTH.
GEM REG DOES NOT INITIALIZE THE STORM DEEP ENOUGH AND HAS IT
TRACKING TOO FAR NORTH..MOVING IT INTO THE FRONTAL TROUGH TO THE
NORTH. MODELS SHOW HEAVY RAIN SKIRTING SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND ON
WEDNESDAY. CYCLONE PHASE SPACE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION COMPLETED AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
SEE ABOVE.

D. MARINE WEATHER

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
22/18Z 90 150 60 20 0 45 0 0 0 0 0 0
23/00Z 90 160 60 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
23/06Z 60 180 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
23/12Z 60 180 75 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
23/18Z 0 180 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
24/00Z 0 180 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
24/06Z 0 150 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

CHC TRAPPED FETCH WAVE MODEL INDICATES MAX SIG WAVES NEAR 10 M
POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE STORM TRACK. HOWEVER..WE HAVE HAD NO
OBSERVATIONS TO VERIFY THE EXISTENCE OF THESE WAVES.

END FOGARTY/BOWYER

165 mm (~6.5 inches) of rain in southern Nova Scotia...

[Cainer]

The rains from Cristobal must have been pretty isolated, because I live about 40 miles northwest of Baccaro Point, and it only rained for about an hour today, and then got sunny, hot and humid. Still, 165 mm is no laughing matter...