TS Cristobal Recon Discussion Thread

[Thunder44]

Matt, just opened a thread for recon reports. This thread will be used to discuss them.

Also I've put up contests for today and tonight's missions already, in the contest forum:

#1
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=101979

#2
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=101981

[KWT]

I'm thinking they may find winds high enough to support a TS, these little systems that spin fairly closre to land I find can be a ltitle stronger then some of the estimates would suggest.

[Ed Mahmoud]

So here is the right thread.


I suspect the 94L recon thread will be thin soup, made by boiling a potato and some scrounged vegetables with scraps of fat bought from the butcher because that was all that could be afforded, but this thread will be a sumptious stew of fresh primed beef cubes, carrots, potatoes, cabbage, onions to taste and a stock made by boiling down beef and chicken bones, and heartily seasoned with bay leaves, a few garlic cloves, salt and pepper, left in a covered crock pot set at 200ºF for six or ten hours.


I think we'll be discussing 40 to 50 knot flight level winds by the end of the mission, and a 40 knot Tropical Storm Cristobal.

[cycloneye]

Discuss here all about recon for TD 3.

[cycloneye]

HURAKAN,as always very nice images,keep them comming.

[HURAKAN]

HURAKAN,as always very nice images,keep them comming.

My pleasure as always.

[cycloneye]

My opinion is they will find more than 30kts to then be classified as TS Cristobal. Anyone here agrees or think they will not find TS force winds?

[vacanechaser]

My opinion is they will find more than 30kts to then be classified as TS Cristobal. Anyone here agrees or think they will not find TS force winds?

i agree.. i think it may be stronger... a lot of times, it usually is... lol.. so i say at the 2pm, t.s .. maybe 40mph... not sure it is much more than that... looks like we will be heading to hatteras later




Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[cpdaman]

i think borderline TS at best early this afternoon, PRIOR to recon getting there it appears IMO to have only abroad LLC and convection has pulsed DOWN . obviously could change in a few hours and in fact we will no from recon soon

[vbhoutex]

My opinion is they will find more than 30kts to then be classified as TS Cristobal. Anyone here agrees or think they will not find TS force winds?

It appears to be working hard on getting it together. I don't think it is quite there yet though. It appears(I agree with ED M) that the center has not really consolidated yet but is well on its way. Once that happens I do expect Cristobal by 11 am tomorrow.

[CrazyC83]

A low-level flight has a 90% reduction factor, correct?

[cycloneye]

Discussions of the mission to TD 3 are being held here,not at the main recon thread where the data is comming in.

[Ed Mahmoud]

They haven't even made the more convectively active East side yet, I am pretty sure they will find a minimal T.S. Cristobal once they get the data back to NHC.

[txwatcher91]

Are they west of the center now?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Latest ob showed a Southeast wind of 36 knots at flight level, so they are getting to the Eastern side now, and have found at least a 30 knot TD.

[brunota2003]

Using a 90% ratio, that 36 knot flight wind equates to 32.4 at the surface.

However, I am not sure what reduction to use.

[txwatcher91]

Probably 80% since the convection is a little weaker right now.

[brunota2003]

Then that would be 28.8 knots at the surface.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I can find a HDOB16 and a HDOB24 on NHC site, are there obs in between I missed?

[brunota2003]

I can find a HDOB16 and a HDOB24 on NHC site, are there obs in between I missed?

This?

URNT15 KNHC 191708
AF308 0103A INVEST HDOB 16 20080719