TS Cristobal Recon Discussion Thread

[brunota2003]

43 knots at flight level:

90% = 38.7
80% = 34.4

[txwatcher91]

34.4 equals 39.9mph which makes this a TS.

[brunota2003]

Alright, let's bump the numbers up a tad, shall we?

44 knot Flight Level:

90% = 39.6
80% = 35.2

[Ed Mahmoud]

I can find a HDOB16 and a HDOB24 on NHC site, are there obs in between I missed?

This?

URNT15 KNHC 191708
AF308 0103A INVEST HDOB 16 20080719

That was the 16 I was talking of. Where is 17 to 23?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Alright, let's bump the numbers up a tad, shall we?

44 knot Flight Level:

90% = 39.6
80% = 35.2

Unofficially,
Happy Birthday Cristobal!

[cpdaman]

1007 mb so far LLC seem semi organized broad, wind field doesn't seem to represent tight LLC. with winds at one point (at a consistent latitude) near 78.7 going from NNW to NNE and then over by 78.5 they go back NW/NNW over to NNE and then finally east around 78.4

but flight level winds correspond to a weak ts.

[CrazyC83]

58 kt FL found, correspond to 50 kt (.9) or 45 kt (.8).

[dwsqos2]

SFMR was much lower though, around 35 knots, and surface observations are closer to this value.

[brunota2003]

58 knots Flight Level...but only 33 knots on SMFR?

Even at .75, it should be closer to 43 knots.

[Ed Mahmoud]

URNT12 KNHC 191854
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL032008
A. 19/18:36:10Z
B. 32 deg 50 min N
078 deg 02 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 28 kt
E. 302 deg 52 nm
F. 040 deg 029 kt
G. 307 deg 053 nm
H. EXTRAP 1006 mb
I. 22 C/ 307 m
J. 23 C/ 304 m
K. 21 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1234/1
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF308 0103A INVEST OB 07
MAX FL WIND 44 KT NE QUAD 17:16:50 Z
MAX FL WIND 58 KT SW QUAD 18:41:30 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.

1006 mb, and strongest winds where I wouldn't have expected it...

[brunota2003]

What is up with all the data gaps on the SMFR? Are they having problems with it? I know flying over islands can cause issues, but there are no islands out there.

[brunota2003]

1005.4 according to this pass. Also notice, no broad center! It was in and out.

[Chacor]

We should have an 06z fix. If that's the case, the plane's scheduled to leave in 20 minutes.

[brunota2003]

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 77
A. 20/0600Z
B. AFXXX 02BBB CYCLONE
C. 20/0245Z
D. 33.7N 77.3W
E. 20/0500Z TO 20/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK...CONTINUE 12 HRLY FIXES.

[brunota2003]

Why is there 5 different, count them, 5 different Recon aircraft progged to fly into 94L tomorrow? Only one is a G-IV Jet

We need fixes on this blob up here, too.

[Chacor]

Looks like the flight got canx.

[brunota2003]

Unless something happened, it is still on per this:

"THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
HELD AT 40 KT PENDING THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT AIRCRAFT AROUND 06Z."

[Chacor]

It either hasn't left yet or isn't reporting HDOBs.

[brunota2003]

000
URNT15 KNHC 200305
AF307 0203A CRISTOBAL HDOB 01 20080720
025500 3025N 08855W 0164 00000 0152 +275 +000 360000 000 999 999 23
025530 3025N 08855W 0164 00000 0152 +275 +000 360000 000 999 999 23
025600 3025N 08855W 0164 00000 0153 +275 +000 360000 000 087 000 23
025630 3025N 08855W 0164 00000 0155 +275 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
025700 3025N 08855W 0163 00000 0157 +277 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
025730 3025N 08855W 0165 00000 0159 +281 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
025800 3025N 08855W 0164 00000 0159 +279 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
025830 3025N 08855W 0165 00000 0159 +276 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
025900 3025N 08855W 0165 00000 0159 +277 +000 360000 000 087 000 23
025930 3025N 08855W 0164 00000 0159 +282 +000 360000 000 087 000 20
030000 3025N 08855W 0162 00000 0158 +281 +000 360000 000 087 000 23
030030 3025N 08855W 0164 00000 0160 +280 +000 360000 000 999 999 23
030100 3025N 08855W 0165 00000 0160 +276 +000 360000 000 999 999 23
030130 3025N 08855W 0165 00000 0160 +275 +000 360000 000 999 999 23
030200 3025N 08855W 0165 00000 0160 +275 +000 360000 000 999 999 23
030230 3025N 08855W 0165 00000 0160 +275 +000 360000 000 999 999 23
030300 3025N 08855W 0167 00000 0160 +275 +000 360000 000 999 999 23
030330 3025N 08855W 0164 00000 0158 +279 +000 237000 001 999 999 23
030400 3025N 08855W 0162 00000 0149 +274 +000 228004 007 999 999 23
030430 3024N 08856W 9995 00130 0143 +271 +000 221007 008 999 999 03
$$



Anddd away we go!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

There is really no need for recon into Cristobal. Why, because we know that it has not changed. It would be better if this was sent southward to 94L in which we need more data on.