EPAC: Tropical Depression GENEVIEVE

[HURAKAN]

EP, 91, 2008072018, , BEST, 0, 124N, 962W, 25, 1007

Not good for development when your convectation is racing ahead of your center.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JUL 20 2008

A 1007 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 12N96W OR ABOUT 200 NM S OF PUERTO
ANGEL MEXICO...MOVING W 12 KT. THE LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING S FROM S/CENTRAL MEXICO TO NEAR 08N
ALONG 96W. THE LOW LIES ON THE EDGE OF AN AREA CHARACTERIZED BY
STRONG NE/EASTERLY SHEAR...WHICH IS JUST ENOUGH TO PUSH MOST OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
CIRCULATION. SHIP LAOX5 RECENTLY REPORTED WINDS TO 33 KT ABOUT
165 NM NNW OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW...INDICATING THAT THE
CIRCULATION IS BECOMING MORE VIGOROUS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 360 NM W AND NW QUADRANTS AND WITHIN 180 NM
NE QUADRANT. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY W OR WNW OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...ESPECIALLY IF THE DEEP CONVECTION CAN
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.

This one may skip TD status.

[KWT]

Hmm still reminds me somewhat of the way 94L looked before it really got going, also may go straight to TS status as well from the looks of things.

[Chacor]

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 260 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO ANGEL
MEXICO. THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE
THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

[Chacor]

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 270 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO ANGEL
MEXICO. THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE
THIS EVENING...HOWEVER THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

[Chacor]

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 325 MILES SOUTH OF ZIHUATANEJO
MEXICO HAVE INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

[HURAKAN]

321
ABPZ20 KNHC 211155
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
FAUSTO...LOCATED ABOUT 405 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS
MEXICO.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 325 MILES SOUTH OF ZIHUATANEJO
MEXICO HAVE INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/KNABB

[HURAKAN]

08E.NONAME

[RL3AO]

EP, 08, 2008072112, , BEST, 0, 133N, 1002W, 30, 1006, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, EIGHT, M,

[Chacor]

TD 8E.

WTPZ43 KNHC 211458
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082008
800 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2008

THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE THAT THE NHC HAS BEEN WATCHING FOR SEVERAL
DAYS HAS FINALLY OBTAINED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THIS SAME SYSTEM
ALMOST BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE MOVING INTO CENTRAL
AMERICA A FEW DAYS AGO. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO BE ON THE
SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF BANDED DEEP CONVECTION FEATURES. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS 30 KT IN LINE WITH QUIKSCAT ESTIMATES. A SLOW
INCREASE IN WINDS IS INDICATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO
MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM COULD INTENSIFY A
LITTLE FASTER THEREAFTER AND HAS A GOOD CHANCE TO BECOME A
HURRICANE BEFORE MOVING OVER THE COOLER WATERS IN 4 DAYS OR SO.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS.
HWRF/GFDL DO NOT INTENSIFY THIS SYSTEM ON THEIR CURRENT INTEGRATION
BUT HAVE INTENSIFIED IT QUITE A BIT BEFOREHAND.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 280/12. A WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING OVER MEXICO. FOR THE FIRST ADVISORY...
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.
THE SYSTEM COULD SLOW A LITTLE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS A WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE COULD AFFECT THE DEPRESSION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/1500Z 13.4N 100.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 22/0000Z 13.6N 102.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 22/1200Z 13.9N 104.9W 40 KT
36HR VT 23/0000Z 14.4N 107.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 23/1200Z 14.9N 108.8W 55 KT
72HR VT 24/1200Z 15.7N 111.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 25/1200Z 16.6N 114.2W 60 KT
120HR VT 26/1200Z 18.0N 118.0W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Chacor]

Round four of the prediction league: viewtopic.php?f=25&t=102051

[RL3AO]

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 212046
TCMEP3
TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082008
2100 UTC MON JUL 21 2008

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 102.6W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 102.6W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 101.9W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 14.1N 104.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 14.5N 106.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 35SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 14.9N 108.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 0SE 0SW 35NW.
34 KT... 75NE 45SE 45SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 15.4N 110.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 45SE 45SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.0N 113.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 16.5N 116.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 17.5N 120.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 102.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[RL3AO]

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 212046
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082008
200 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2008

...THE SEVENTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE YEAR FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO...

AT 200 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.6 WEST OR ABOUT 275
MILES...440 KM...SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO AND ABOUT 370 MILES...
595 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.

GENEVIEVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND
A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 200 PM PDT POSITION...13.9 N...102.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



000
WTPZ43 KNHC 212047
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082008
200 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2008

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER REMAINS ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF A NEW BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH PLENTY OF BANDING
FEATURES IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. AN ASCAT MICROWAVE PASS AT
1604 UTC SHOWED 30-35 KT WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND DVORAK
SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB/SAB ARE A CONSENSUS T2.5...35
KT. THUS THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM
GENEVIEVE AND AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT WILL BE USED. MODERATE
EASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INHIBIT ANY RAPID DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW VERY LIGHT
SHEAR...AND WITH WATERS THAT ARE PLENTY WARM IN THE PATH OF THE
STORM...THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN A FEW DAYS...OR
SOONER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE
SHIPS/LGEM/GFDL MODELS AND IS NEAR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

GENEVIEVE HAS BEEN MOVING AT ABOUT 280/15 FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE STORM SHOULD SLOW DOWN
RELATIVELY SOON...PERHAPS DUE TO THE RIDGE WEAKENING A LITTLE DUE
TO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER MEXICO. THAT TROUGH DOESN'T
LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGES...SO I'M GOING TO KEEP
THE STORM ON THE FASTER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...BUT NOT AS SPEEDY AS
THE GFS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED WESTWARD OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/2100Z 13.9N 102.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 14.1N 104.3W 40 KT
24HR VT 22/1800Z 14.5N 106.6W 45 KT
36HR VT 23/0600Z 14.9N 108.4W 55 KT
48HR VT 23/1800Z 15.4N 110.4W 60 KT
72HR VT 24/1800Z 16.0N 113.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 25/1800Z 16.5N 116.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 26/1800Z 17.5N 120.0W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[WmE]

Wow! The EPAC is really bussy this year. Hello Geneviev!

[KWT]

Doesn't look stunning right now but ther eis a convective burst just recently, certainly enough there though IMO to justify the 35kts from the NHC. Also looks like its going to slowly strengthen over the next few days, forecasted to reach a hurricane. Pretty sharp start to the EPAC season.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

EP, 08, 2008072200, , BEST, 0, 142N, 1034W, 35, 1004, TS,

No change, 35 knots.

[Ad Novoxium]

Scary thought: This season's starting to draw parallels to 92. It was around this same time that Georgette had formed. Similar to 83 as well. However, it's no 85. In 85, by the time July was over, two tropical storms were still active: Kevin and Linda.

[Chacor]

viewtopic.php?f=25&t=102051

Only three entries so far! One last hour to get your predictions in for the prediction league.

[Chacor]

537
WTPZ33 KNHC 221452
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082008
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2008

AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.3 WEST OR ABOUT 325
MILES...525 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.

GENEVIEVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER RATE OF
SPEED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...14.7 N...106.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BLAKE