EPAC: Tropical Depression GENEVIEVE

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

One of the main reason there have not been a major in the Eastern Pacific this year, is that all its hurricanes have formed with in this area at the last minute, before they hit cold water. If they where to have developed 5 degree's south and 10 degree's to the east we could of gotten some cat3s and 4s already.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ43 KNHC 260236
TCDEP3
HURRICANE GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082008
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 25 2008

AN AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS AT 2111Z HELPS PLACE THE CENTER OF
GENEVIEVE PRETTY MUCH IN THE CENTER OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...
ALTHOUGH TO MY EYE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO BE SOUTH OF THE
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CENTER...AS IT HAS BEEN AT TIMES. NO EYE IS
APPARENT IN EITHER VISIBLE OR INFRARED IMAGERY...SUGGESTING NO
IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 65 KT...WHILE THE CIMSS ADT IS NEAR 60
KT. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 65. TONIGHT IS LIKELY THE LAST
CHANCE FOR ANY INTENSIFICATION. SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE...SUGGESTS STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES WILL SOON
OVERTAKE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND SSTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL SHARPLY
IN ANOTHER DAY OR SO. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS A SHIPS/LGEM
BLEND.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/12...ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF GENEVIEVE AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. THE LATTER FEATURE IS
LIFTING AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
GENEVIEVE TO MAINTAIN A TRACK JUST NORTH OF WEST UNTIL THE SYSTEM
DECAYS INTO A SHALLOW VORTEX IN THREE DAYS OR SO. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A SHADE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE
HWRF AND GFDL ARE THE NORTHERN OUTLIERS...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF
MARK THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/0300Z 16.9N 118.1W 65 KT
12HR VT 26/1200Z 17.3N 119.8W 65 KT
24HR VT 27/0000Z 17.8N 122.0W 60 KT
36HR VT 27/1200Z 18.2N 124.1W 50 KT
48HR VT 28/0000Z 18.6N 126.0W 45 KT
72HR VT 29/0000Z 19.3N 130.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 30/0000Z 19.5N 134.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 31/0000Z 19.5N 138.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[cycloneye]

Downgraded.

WTPZ43 KNHC 260835
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082008
200 AM PDT SAT JUL 26 2008

A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT ABOUT 0230Z RETRIEVED WINDS OF 55-60 KT TO
THE NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER...BUT DUE TO RESOLUTION
LIMITATIONS OF THE INSTRUMENT THESE WERE LIKELY UNDERESTIMATES...
AND GENEVIEVE WAS PROBABLY STILL A HURRICANE AT THAT TIME. SINCE
THEN...HOWEVER...CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE
DROPPED...SO GENEVIEVE APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL
STORM. BLENDING THE DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS YIELDS AN INITIAL
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 60 KT. GENEVIEVE IS HEADED TOWARD
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH A LITTLE
INCREASE IN SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR...SO THE CYCLONE MIGHT HAVE JUST
GONE OVER THE BRINK INTO A PERMANENT WEAKENING TREND. ALL OF THE
OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SAYS SO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST OF DECAY
FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...AND SHOWS A SLIGHTLY FASTER RATE
OF DECLINE THAN THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF
THE CYCLONE.

GENEVIEVE IS MOVING RIGHT ALONG THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AT
280/11...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE. THE TRACK INVOLVES A SUBTLE TURN TO THE LEFT AT THE
LATITUDE OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AS THE EVENTUAL REMNANT LOW
SHOULD TURN DUE WESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN A FEW DAYS. THE
GFDL AND HWRF TRACKS STILL TURN LEFT WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/0900Z 17.1N 119.1W 60 KT
12HR VT 26/1800Z 17.5N 120.8W 55 KT
24HR VT 27/0600Z 17.9N 122.9W 50 KT
36HR VT 27/1800Z 18.4N 125.0W 40 KT
48HR VT 28/0600Z 18.9N 127.0W 35 KT
72HR VT 29/0600Z 19.5N 131.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 30/0600Z 19.5N 135.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 31/0600Z 19.5N 139.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Chacor]

[HURAKAN]

EP, 08, 2008072612, , BEST, 0, 173N, 1198W, 50, 997, TS

50 knots.

[cycloneye]

734
WTPZ43 KNHC 261433
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082008
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 26 2008

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS GRADUALLY
DETERIORATING. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION IS OVER
COOLER WATERS AND MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS WITHIN A CURVED
BAND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. T-NUMBERS ARE DECREASING AND SO DOES
THE INITIAL INTENSITY WHICH IS NOW 50 KNOTS. GENEVIEVE IS EXPECTED
TO BE OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS AND MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE...WEAKENING IS INDICATED AND THE CYCLONE
COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WEAKENING
TREND IS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.

GENEVIEVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS
AROUND THE PERIPHERY A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST AND SHOULD PROVIDE A WESTWARD STEERING FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHEN THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE. AFTER 48 HOURS...GENEVIEVE IS FORECAST TO BE
WEAKER AND SHOULD MORE TOWARD THE WEST STEERED BY TE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/1500Z 17.4N 120.4W 50 KT
12HR VT 27/0000Z 17.9N 122.0W 45 KT
24HR VT 27/1200Z 18.2N 124.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 28/0000Z 18.5N 126.0W 35 KT
48HR VT 28/1200Z 19.0N 128.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 29/1200Z 19.6N 132.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 30/1200Z 19.5N 135.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 31/1200Z 19.5N 139.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 262032
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082008
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 26 2008

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE WHILE MICROWAVE DATA SHOWS THAT THE MID-
AND LOW- LEVEL CENTER ARE BECOMING DECOUPLED. EARLIER QUIKSCAT
INDICATE THAT WINDS WERE 45 KNOTS AND SO DOES THE LATEST DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45
KNOTS. A LARGE PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY OVER COOLER
WATERS AND THE CYCLONE IS BECOMING SURROUNDED BY STABLE AIR.
WEAKENING IS INDICATED AND GENEVIEVE IS EXPECTED TO BE A REMNANT
LOW IN 48 HOURS. THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT.

THE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A WESTWARD
STEERING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BEYOND 48 HOURS GUIDANCE IS IN LESS
AGREEMENT BUT BY THEN...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE A REMNANT LOW MOVING
WESTWARD STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/2100Z 17.3N 121.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 27/0600Z 17.7N 123.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 27/1800Z 18.0N 125.0W 30 KT
36HR VT 28/0600Z 18.5N 126.5W 25 KT
48HR VT 28/1800Z 19.0N 128.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 29/1800Z 19.0N 132.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 30/1800Z 19.0N 136.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 31/1800Z 19.0N 139.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

486
WTPZ43 KNHC 270238
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082008
800 PM PDT SAT JUL 26 2008

ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH GENEVIEVE HAS DISSIPATED
DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS AND THE CYCLONE NOW CONSISTS OF A SWIRL
OF LOW CLOUDS BENEATH MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT BASED ON THIS TREND. WITH
COOLER WATER AND A MORE STABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND GENEVIEVE COULD BECOME
A REMNANT LOW TOMORROW. THOUGH SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DISSIPATE
GENEVIEVE IN 2-3 DAYS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PROVIDES POINTS OUT
TO DAY 4.

THE LAST FEW MICROWAVE PASSES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS
TURNED TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS. SOON TO
BE A SHALLOW SYSTEM...GENEVIEVE IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW RESULTING IN A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/0300Z 16.9N 122.5W 40 KT
12HR VT 27/1200Z 17.0N 124.1W 35 KT
24HR VT 28/0000Z 17.2N 126.2W 30 KT
36HR VT 28/1200Z 17.4N 128.1W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 29/0000Z 17.6N 129.8W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 30/0000Z 18.0N 132.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 31/0000Z 18.0N 136.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[cycloneye]

The last advisory discussion:


WTPZ43 KNHC 271425
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082008
800 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2008

GENEVIEVE HAS BEEN WITHOUT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER SINCE
LATE YESTERDAY AND NO LONGER MEETS THE DEFINITION OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THEREFORE THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT AND A CONTINUED SLOW WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM IS LIKELY IN A STABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER COOL WATERS.

THE SKELETAL REMAINS OF GENEVIEVE ARE HEADED WESTWARD AT ABOUT 11
KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED OR HEADING IS EXPECTED AS THE
REMNANT LOW MOVES ALONG IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADES. NONE OF THE
MODELS SHOW A CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH THIS SYSTEM BY 48 HR...SO THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHOW A DISSIPATION OF THE REMNANT LOW AT
THAT TIME.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/1500Z 17.0N 124.9W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
12HR VT 28/0000Z 17.1N 126.6W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 28/1200Z 17.3N 128.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 29/0000Z 17.6N 130.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Chacor]

The results from the prediction challenge are up. Congrats HURAKAN!

[RL3AO]

Remnants of Genevieve.



Nice looking low pressure system. If it were 150 miles to the south it would be back over 26+ SSTs.