EPAC: Tropical Depression GENEVIEVE

[Chacor]

WTPZ43 KNHC 221457
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082008
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2008

GENEVIEVE'S DEEP CONVECTION HAS IMPROVED SOME IN ORGANIZATION
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THE HARD EDGE TO THE COLD CLOUD TOPS IN THE
INFRARED IMAGERY IS INDICATIVE OF MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR
IMPINGING UPON THE CYCLONE. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE GONE UP TO
3.5 FROM TAFB AND STEADY AT 3.0 FROM SAB. A 1205Z AMSU PASS
INDICATED 51 KT FROM THE CIMSS TECHNIQUE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KT.

A 1143Z SSMI PASS DID SHOW A DISTINCT CURVED BAND IN THE 37V
IMAGERY...WHICH HELPED TO LOCATE THE CYCLONE'S POSITION.
GENEVIEVE'S TRACK IS 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT. WITH THE CYCLONE WELL
EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP-LAYERED EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...GENEVIEVE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD. THE TRACK MODELS
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING AND THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED UPON THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...GFDL...HWRF...AND UKMET
MODELS. THIS NEW TRACK IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF AND FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE WIND SHEAR IMPACTING THE CYCLONE SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT
THREE DAYS. BECAUSE THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD...THE CYCLONE MAY MISS MOST OF THE WATERS COOLED BY ELIDA
AND FAUSTO. CONSEQUENTLY...INTENSIFICATION TO A HURRICANE IS NOW
EXPECTED. AT DAYS 4 AND 5...THE SHEAR MAY INCREASE AGAIN AS THE
SSTS GRADUALLY COOL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE AND IS ABOVE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/1500Z 14.7N 106.3W 50 KT
12HR VT 23/0000Z 14.9N 108.1W 55 KT
24HR VT 23/1200Z 15.1N 110.2W 60 KT
36HR VT 24/0000Z 15.1N 112.1W 65 KT
48HR VT 24/1200Z 15.1N 113.9W 70 KT
72HR VT 25/1200Z 15.0N 117.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 26/1200Z 15.0N 119.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 27/1200Z 15.0N 123.0W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BLAKE

[cycloneye]

WTPZ43 KNHC 230244
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082008
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2008

GENEVIEVE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN IN THE FACE OF MODERATE
EASTERLY SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 55 KT BASED ON
UNANIMOUS SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS.
MULTIPLE FACTORS COMPLICATE THE INTENSITY FORECAST. ON ONE
HAND...VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS AND ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS STRENGTHENING.
HOWEVER...SATELLITE BASED SST ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE
IS ABOUT TO MOVE OVER A COLD WAKE GENERATED BY FAUSTO. WHILE THE
POCKET OF COOLER WATER IS NOT THAT LARGE...IT COULD SLOW OR EVEN
STOP DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT-TERM. BEYOND 24 HOURS...GENEVIEVE
SHOULD BE BACK OVER SUFFICIENTLY WARM WATERS WHERE IT WILL HAVE
ABOUT A 48 HOUR WINDOW TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE SHEAR INCREASES AGAIN.
IN LIGHT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD WAKE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
BELOW THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS EARLY IN THE FORECAST.

GENEVIEVE CONTINUES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. WHILE DYNAMICAL
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THIS RIDGE WILL NOSE WESTWARD INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...THEY DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE.
ADDITIONALLY...THE VARIOUS MODELS DIFFER IN THEIR FORECASTS OF THE
STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF THE CYCLONE. THOSE MODEL DEPICTING A WEAK
SYSTEM MOVE IT SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE THOSE MODELS WHICH DEPICT A
STRONG SYSTEM TURN THE CYCLONE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD.
ALL THIS RESULTS IN A HUGE DIVERGENCE OF THE TRACK MODELS BEYOND A
DAY OR SO. IN FACT...THE TRACK MODEL ENVELOPE SPANS APPROXIMATELY
1000 MILES AT DAY 5. GIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST MAINTAINS A DUE WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 5 DAYS. THIS
RESULTS IN A SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST BUT IT STILL LIES SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0300Z 14.3N 108.2W 55 KT
12HR VT 23/1200Z 14.4N 109.7W 55 KT
24HR VT 24/0000Z 14.4N 111.3W 60 KT
36HR VT 24/1200Z 14.4N 112.8W 65 KT
48HR VT 25/0000Z 14.4N 114.2W 65 KT
72HR VT 26/0000Z 14.4N 117.2W 65 KT
96HR VT 27/0000Z 14.5N 120.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 28/0000Z 14.5N 123.5W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[cycloneye]

WTPZ43 KNHC 232033
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082008
200 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2008

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT GENEVIEVE HAS BEEN
STRUGGLING SOME TODAY. CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING AND THE DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN
ERODING...POSSIBLY DUE TO SOME MID-TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR UNDERCUTTING
THE DIFFLUENT EASTERLIES ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN
TRAVERSING OVER A WAKE OF LESS THAN 25C ANOMALOUSLY COOL SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES CREATED BY HURRICANE FAUSTO. DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ALSO SUPPORT A WEAKENING...THEREFORE THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWER TO 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS WHICH
SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS. BEYOND
THAT...INCREASING NORTHERLY SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND.
IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE SHIPS SUGGESTS THAT GENEVIEVE BASICALLY
MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS BEFORE
COMMENCING A WEAKENING.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/8...WITHIN THE MID-LAYER EASTERLY
FLOW OF RIDGE TO THE NORTH. NO SIGNIFICANT TRACK CHANGES FROM THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE...WITH GENEVIEVE GRADUALLY MOVING MORE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH TIME TOWARD A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS USED AS A
BASIS FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/2100Z 15.0N 110.1W 50 KT
12HR VT 24/0600Z 15.1N 111.3W 55 KT
24HR VT 24/1800Z 15.3N 112.8W 60 KT
36HR VT 25/0600Z 15.5N 114.3W 65 KT
48HR VT 25/1800Z 15.8N 115.9W 60 KT
72HR VT 26/1800Z 16.5N 119.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 27/1800Z 17.5N 122.5W 40 KT
120HR VT 28/1800Z 19.0N 126.0W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA

[HURAKAN]

Genevieve, be good, my prediction was 60 knots and I don't want to lose!

[Chacor]

Still struggling.

[Ad Novoxium]

Genevieve, be good, my prediction was 60 knots and I don't want to lose!

I wouldn't put faith in that. Many of the EPac storms this season have not been cooperative.

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 240853
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082008
200 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2008

GENEVIEVE CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A RATHER DISHEVELED APPEARANCE IN
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND A SOMEWHAT REMOVED BAND TO THE
SOUTHWEST. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE COLD WAKE LEFT BY FAUSTO HAS
TAKEN ITS TOLL ON GENEVIEVE...FOR NOW. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AND A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGEST THAT GENEVIEVE HAS
WEAKENED TO 45 KT. GENEVIEVE IS GRADUALLY MOVING OVER WARMER SSTS
AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF
DAYS. ACCORDINGLY...SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE
SHORT-TERM. EVEN THOUGH THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST PEAKS JUST BELOW
HURRICANE INTENSITY AT 36 HOURS...THE INTENSITY PROBABILITIES
INCLUDED IN THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE INDICATE A 30% CHANCE OF
GENEVIEVE BEING A HURRICANE AT THAT TIME. IN ABOUT 2 DAYS...
INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLER WATER ARE EXPECTED TO BRING ABOUT
WEAKENING FOR GOOD.

GENEVIEVE CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 9 KT. WITH A MIDDLE TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH...A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
HEADING IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST. TRACK MODELS
SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED AND THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/0900Z 15.1N 112.0W 45 KT
12HR VT 24/1800Z 15.2N 113.2W 50 KT
24HR VT 25/0600Z 15.4N 114.7W 55 KT
36HR VT 25/1800Z 15.8N 116.5W 60 KT
48HR VT 26/0600Z 16.2N 118.4W 55 KT
72HR VT 27/0600Z 17.5N 122.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 28/0600Z 18.5N 126.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 29/0600Z 19.5N 129.5W 25 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[cycloneye]

HURAKAN,your 60kts still elusive and may never come.

WTPZ43 KNHC 241439
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082008
800 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2008

GENEVIEVE...SOMEWHAT SURPRISINGLY...IS CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE OVER
THE OPEN NORTHEAST PACIFIC. DEEP CONVECTION COVERS ONLY A SMALL
REGION OVER THE CYCLONE AND REMAINS ASYMMETRIC IN ITS DISTRIBUTION.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE DROPPED
SLIGHTLY...BUT STILL INDICATE A CURRENT INTENSITY OF ABOUT 45 KT.
A 0905Z AMSU PASS SUGGESTED WINDS OF 48 KT FROM THE CIMSS
TECHNIQUE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AT 45 KT.

GENEVIEVE IS MOVING AT 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT...BASED UPON A BLEND OF
THE 12Z DVORAK POSITION ESTIMATES AND A 0936Z AMSR MICROWAVE PASS.
THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THE FORECAST TRACK IS A BLEND OF
THE CORRECTED CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.

THE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS MORE PROBLEMATIC. THE CYCLONE IS OVER
MARGINALLY WARM WATERS...LOW VERTICAL SHEAR...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...PERHAPS
ENHANCED BY THE CLOSED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
GENEVIEVE. MOREOVER...IT IS LIKELY THAT THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED PAST
THE REGION OF OCEAN COOLING INDUCED BY HURRICANE FAUSTO. IN THE
SHORT-TERM...INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED IN AGREEMENT PRIMARILY
WITH THE GFDL MODEL. FROM 48 HOURS ONWARD...THE CYCLONE SHOULD
ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS...A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE...AND MODERATE
TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS THEN ANTICIPATED
BASED UPON A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND LGEM MODELS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST INTENSITY HAS A PEAK SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
PREDICTED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/1500Z 15.3N 112.7W 45 KT
12HR VT 25/0000Z 15.4N 114.0W 50 KT
24HR VT 25/1200Z 15.6N 115.7W 55 KT
36HR VT 26/0000Z 15.9N 117.4W 55 KT
48HR VT 26/1200Z 16.4N 119.3W 50 KT
72HR VT 27/1200Z 17.5N 123.5W 40 KT
96HR VT 28/1200Z 18.5N 127.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 29/1200Z 19.0N 130.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/AVILA

[HURAKAN]

I'm OK with 55 knots. I didn't want the storm to become a hurricane, that was my problem. It's still a good forecast to say the first day that the storm forms, 60 knots, and the storm ends up at 55 knots. I did the same with Fausto, I said 90 knots, and Fausto ended up at 85 knots! So far RI has not been a problem. That's always something to think about. By the way, I just make educated guesses, not like I really, really know what the intensity will be. That's impossible. I just saw that Genevieve formed farther to the north and to the west of both Fausto and Elida, which resulted in the storm not having enough time to really get its act together. That was my theory behind the prediction!

[RL3AO]

TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082008
200 PM PDT THU JUL 24 2008

GENEVIEVE HAS MAINTAINED DEEP CONVECTION TODAY...THOUGH THE COLD
CLOUD TOPS COVER A SMALL AREA AND ARE ASYMMETRICALLY DISTRIBUTED.
WHILE DVORAK CI NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED FROM TAFB AND SAB...A
1553Z SSMIS PASS AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT A RAGGED EYE MAY
BE FORMING. AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM A 1258Z PASS WERE ABOUT
50 KT FROM THE CIMSS AND CIRA TECHNIQUES. AN ASCAT PASS AT 1642Z
DID NOT SHOW ANY GALE FORCE WINDS...THOUGH THIS INSTRUMENT MAY HAVE
PROBLEMS IN DISCERNING STRONG WINDS WITH A SMALL CYCLONE. THE
INTENSITY IS BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY TO 50 KT.

GENEVIEVE HAS SLOWED DOWN TO 6 KT AT A 280 DEGREES HEADING. THE
CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYERED
RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THE FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CORRECTED CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...MINUS THE GFS AT THE EXTENDED RANGE.

GENEVIEVE LIKELY HAS A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IN THE NEXT DAY
TO FURTHER STRENTHEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS MARGINALLY WARM WATERS...LOW
VERTICAL SHEAR...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...PERHAPS ENHANCED BY THE CLOSED UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC LOW NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. BEGINNING IN
ABOUT 36 HOURS...GENEVIEVE SHOULD BE ADVERSELY IMPACTED BY COOLER
WATERS...A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE...AND MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED UPON A BLEND OF
THE GFDL AND LGEM MODELS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
WHILE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT GO ABOVE 55 KT...THERE IS A 20%
CHANCE OF GENEVIEVE BECOMING A HURRICANE BASED UPON OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST ERROR STATISTICS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/2100Z 15.4N 112.9W 50 KT
12HR VT 25/0600Z 15.5N 114.0W 55 KT
24HR VT 25/1800Z 15.7N 115.7W 55 KT
36HR VT 26/0600Z 16.1N 117.8W 55 KT
48HR VT 26/1800Z 16.7N 119.8W 50 KT
72HR VT 27/1800Z 17.5N 124.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 28/1800Z 18.0N 128.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 29/1800Z 18.5N 132.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/AVILA

[HURAKAN]

Not bad!

[cycloneye]

WTPZ43 KNHC 250233
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082008
800 PM PDT THU JUL 24 2008

THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH GENEVIEVE CONTINUES TO BE
ASYMMETRICALLY DISTRIBUTED...AS MOST OF THE COLDEST-TOPPED CLOUDS
ARE DISPLACED TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER.
BANDING FEATURES ARE NOT WELL-DEFINED AT THIS TIME. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS 50 KT...WHICH IS BETWEEN THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. CONCURRENT 85 GHZ AND 37 GHZ SSM/I
IMAGES FROM A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO SUGGEST THAT THERE IS SOME
NORTHWARD TILT OF THE CIRCULATION WITH HEIGHT...SUGGESTING
SOUTHERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER THE SHIPS OUTPUT INDICATES 10 KT OR LESS
OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. PERHAPS
THE GFS...WHICH PROVIDES THE DYNAMICAL INPUT FOR SHIPS... IS
UNDERESTIMATING THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHERLIES OVER
THE STORM. NOTWITHSTANDING...THE SHIPS MODEL DOES NOT FORECAST
MUCH INCREASE IN STRENGTH...NOR DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IN 36
HOURS OR SO...GENEVIEVE SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO AN
INCREASINGLY LESS CONDUCIVE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT.

INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 285/7. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
THE STORM SHOULD MAINTAIN A SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WESTWARD MOTION OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NOT TOO
DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/0300Z 15.8N 113.8W 50 KT
12HR VT 25/1200Z 16.0N 115.0W 55 KT
24HR VT 26/0000Z 16.3N 116.8W 55 KT
36HR VT 26/1200Z 16.7N 118.8W 50 KT
48HR VT 27/0000Z 17.1N 121.0W 45 KT
72HR VT 28/0000Z 18.0N 125.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 29/0000Z 18.5N 128.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 30/0000Z 18.5N 132.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Chacor]

Genevieve has an nice round CDO...but still seems to be suffering from south(west?)erly shear.

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 250857
TCDEP3
TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082008
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2008

THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS AT TIMES BEEN A LITTLE MORE SYMMETRIC
RECENTLY...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT BASED ON
THE RISE IN SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES. MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM
SSMIS BACK AT 03Z SUGGESTS THE CYCLONE IS STILL A BIT TILTED IN THE
VERTICAL...BUT PERHAPS A LITTLE LESS SO THAN EARLIER. THE
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES BENEATH GENEVIEVE ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT 26.5
CELSIUS AND WILL DECREASE ONLY SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MEANWHILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR APPEARS TO BE MODEST OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS A RESULT A TEMPORARY
STRENGTHENING TREND IS FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM BY NEARLY ALL OF
THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...WITH THE SHIPS AND GFDL FLIRTING
WITH HURRICANE STATUS...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST PEAKS AT 60
KT IN 24 HOURS. IT CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT THAT GENEVIEVE
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY...BUT NOT LIKELY THEREAFTER. COOLER
WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK BEYOND THAT TIME SHOULD INDUCE
STEADY WEAKENING UNTIL THE CYCLONE DEGENERATES OVER SSTS LESS THAN
24 CELSIUS VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY ABOUT GENEVIEVE'S MOTION OF
285/8...WHICH IS FORECAST TO BECOME AN EVEN MORE TYPICAL 285/11 OR
SO BY THIS TIME TOMORROW...AS THE CYCLONE SPEEDS UP A LITTLE WITHIN
DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. NOT UNTIL
THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND BECOMES A MORE SHALLOW CIRCULATION OVER
COOLER WATERS IN A FEW DAYS WILL THE HEADING CHANGE...TO A MORE
WESTWARD MOTION IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS
JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE GFS/GFDL/HWRF SIDE...OR TO THE NORTH OF...THE
CONSENSUS...WHICH ALSO REPRESENTS A SMALL NORTHWARD SHIFT COMPARED
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/0900Z 16.0N 114.5W 55 KT
12HR VT 25/1800Z 16.4N 116.0W 60 KT
24HR VT 26/0600Z 17.0N 118.2W 60 KT
36HR VT 26/1800Z 17.6N 120.4W 55 KT
48HR VT 27/0600Z 18.2N 122.6W 45 KT
72HR VT 28/0600Z 19.5N 127.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 29/0600Z 19.5N 131.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 30/0600Z 19.5N 134.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[HURAKAN]

25/1200 UTC 16.3N 115.1W T4.0/4.0 GENEVIEVE -- East Pacific Ocean

[cycloneye]

First visible pic:

[Chacor]

Talk about a surprise!

230
WTPZ43 KNHC 251452
TCDEP3
HURRICANE GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082008
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2008

A 1130 UTC TRMM MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF
GENEVIEVE IS NOW BENEATH THE MIDDLE-LEVEL CENTER AND THAT A BANDED
EYE HAD FORMED. DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS WERE 4.0...65
KT...FROM BOTH AGENCIES AND THUS GENEVIEVE IS UPGRADED TO A
HURRICANE WITH 65 KT WINDS...THE FOURTH OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
HURRICANE SEASON. THIS FORMATION IS ABOUT TWO WEEKS AHEAD OF THE
MEAN FOURTH HURRICANE DATE OF 10 AUGUST IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...
AND 2008 ALREADY HAS HAD AS MANY HURRICANES AS THE ENTIRE 2007
SEASON.

IT IS PROBABLE THAT GENEVIEVE WILL PEAK IN INTENSITY TODAY AS IT IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LIGHT WIND SHEAR AND WARM WATER. HOWEVER...
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING QUICKLY
TOWARD THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FROM THE EAST. THESE CLOUDS HERALD AN
INCREASE IN EASTERLY WIND SHEAR STARTING TOMORROW FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. IN COMBINATION WITH DECREASING SSTS...THESE EFFECTS SHOULD
CAUSE A STEADY WEAKENING OF GENEVIEVE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SHIFTED UPWARD IN THE SHORT-TERM TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT CHANGES...
AND THEN IS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE MOTION OF GENEVIEVE APPEARS TO HAVE ACCELERATED AND IS NOW
ESTIMATED AT 285/10. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AT ABOUT 11 KT IS
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE RIDES
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER MEXICO.
A TOWARD TOWARDS THE WEST IS PROBABLE AROUND THREE DAYS DUE TO THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE BECOMING A MORE SHALLOW CIRCULATION AND STEERED BY
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAKES ONLY A SMALL
NORTHWARD CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS JUST SOUTH OF
THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/1500Z 16.4N 115.7W 65 KT
12HR VT 26/0000Z 16.8N 117.4W 70 KT
24HR VT 26/1200Z 17.4N 119.6W 70 KT
36HR VT 27/0000Z 18.1N 121.7W 60 KT
48HR VT 27/1200Z 18.8N 123.8W 50 KT
72HR VT 28/1200Z 20.0N 128.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 29/1200Z 20.0N 132.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 30/1200Z 20.0N 136.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[WmE]

[RL3AO]

Wasn't expecting to see this.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ43 KNHC 252039
TCDEP3
HURRICANE GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082008
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 25 2008

HINTS OF AN EYE HAVE BEEN SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES THIS
AFTERNOON...NEAR THE MIDDLE OF A FAIRLY ROUND BUT SMALL CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 65 KT.
THE SYSTEM PROBABLY HAS LESS THAN A DAY TO INTENSIFY DUE TO THE
EFFECTS OF COOLING SSTS AND INCREASING SHEAR. GENEVIEVE IS LIKELY
TO LOSE CONVECTION RELATIVELY QUICKLY IN ABOUT THREE TO FOUR DAYS
WHEN THE VERY SMALL SYSTEM WILL BE OVER COLD WATERS AND EXPERIENCING
MODERATE SHEAR. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOUT THE
SAME AS BEFORE AND IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

GENEVIEVE HAS BEEN MOVING AT A RATHER CLIMATOLOGICAL 285/11. THIS
GENERAL HEADING AND SPEED IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
DUE TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE
GFDL AND HWRF SHOW A BIT LESS RIDGING THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND ARE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST NORTH OF
THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. A WESTWARD TRACK IS PROBABLE IN ABOUT THREE DAYS WHEN THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE BECOMES A MORE SHALLOW CIRCULATION AND IS STEERED
BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATE THIS SYSTEM IS VERY SMALL AND THE WIND RADII
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/2100Z 16.8N 116.8W 65 KT
12HR VT 26/0600Z 17.2N 118.5W 70 KT
24HR VT 26/1800Z 17.8N 120.7W 65 KT
36HR VT 27/0600Z 18.4N 122.9W 60 KT
48HR VT 27/1800Z 19.0N 125.1W 50 KT
72HR VT 28/1800Z 20.0N 129.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 29/1800Z 20.0N 134.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 30/1800Z 20.0N 138.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE