EPAC: Tropical Depression GENEVIEVE

[HURAKAN]

BEGIN
NHC
invest_ep912008.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200807191549
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 91, 2008, DB, O, 2008071912, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP912008
EP, 91, 2008071900, , BEST, 0, 123N, 872W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 91, 2008071906, , BEST, 0, 125N, 883W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 91, 2008071912, , BEST, 0, 125N, 894W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

[Chacor]

Probably a continuation of 95L.

[Chacor]

There's a blob there, but I'm not seeing anything around the ATCF centre.

[RattleMan]

Looks like what was 95L?

AL, 95, 2008071700, , BEST, 0, 133N, 792W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2008071706, , BEST, 0, 133N, 806W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2008071712, , BEST, 0, 134N, 816W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 95, 2008071718, , BEST, 0, 136N, 825W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 95, 2008071800, , BEST, 0, 137N, 831W, 30, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 95, 2008071806, , BEST, 0, 140N, 848W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

EDIT: Chacor beat me to it

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KMIA 191550
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1550 UTC SAT JUL 19 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP912008) 20080719 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080719 1200 080720 0000 080720 1200 080721 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.5N 89.4W 13.3N 91.5W 13.6N 93.9W 13.8N 96.1W
BAMD 12.5N 89.4W 13.0N 91.8W 13.3N 94.3W 13.6N 97.0W
BAMM 12.5N 89.4W 13.2N 91.6W 13.8N 93.9W 14.2N 96.3W
LBAR 12.5N 89.4W 12.9N 91.8W 13.6N 94.7W 14.3N 97.8W
SHIP 20KTS 28KTS 37KTS 48KTS
DSHP 20KTS 28KTS 37KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080721 1200 080722 1200 080723 1200 080724 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.9N 98.6W 15.6N 102.5W 17.6N 105.3W 18.9N 107.4W
BAMD 13.7N 100.0W 15.0N 105.2W 16.7N 109.5W 18.2N 112.1W
BAMM 14.5N 99.0W 16.4N 103.3W 18.3N 106.8W 20.0N 109.0W
LBAR 15.1N 101.1W 17.0N 107.1W 18.5N 110.9W 19.0N 113.9W
SHIP 57KTS 67KTS 67KTS 69KTS
DSHP 57KTS 67KTS 67KTS 69KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.5N LONCUR = 89.4W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 12.3N LONM12 = 87.2W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 12.1N LONM24 = 85.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[CrazyC83]

Looks pretty good already. Well on its way to TD status.

[Chacor]

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL
WAVE...HAS EMERGED OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR EL
SALVADOR. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVER PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...AND THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT JUL 19 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PACIFIC
ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR...AND IT
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA AND
EL SALVADOR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND IT COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...NEAR THE COASTS OF GUATEMALA AND
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Ed Mahmoud]

I thought 95L looked too good not to make some waves in the EastPac.

[CycloneNL]

Genevieve is soon in the EPAC

[bob rulz]

Wow, the EPAC has just been relentless this year.

Why is the EPAC so busy this year? Do any experts have any ideas? Is it warmer than average SSTs? Lower than average shear? A combination? And if so, what is creating such favorable environments?

[Cyclenall]

What I'm finding amazing is the Epac and Atlantic are busy both at the same time. I remember September 2005 being the last time I fondly recall this.

[chadtm80]

[KWT]

This is looking very good right now, indeed the good cyclonic look 95L developed has continued into the EPAC and so I've got a good feeling this may become aour 8th tropical depression of the season sooner rather then later

[RattleMan]

TCFA:



WTPN21 PHNC 192230
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.5N 90.0W TO 15.1N 101.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 192130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.5N 90.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.5N 90.6W,
APPROXIMATELY 115 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN SALVADOR, EL SALVADOR.
RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED
CONSOLIDATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH A SOMEWHAT BROAD LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 191630Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS
DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE BANDING NORTHWEST WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTH
QUADRANT. THE LLCC IS LOCATED IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, SOUTH
OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE, WITH STRONG DIFFLUENCE AND
MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). OVER THE NEXT 18-36
HOURS, THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVEMENT IN CONVECTIVE BANDING AND DEFINED
LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 202230Z.//
BT
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

062
ABPZ20 KNHC 200525
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SAT JUL 19 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
FAUSTO...LOCATED ABOUT 480 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TO ITS WEST. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[RL3AO]

How about a few -80C tops.

[Chacor]

Reminds me of Fausto early on.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN JUL 20 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
FAUSTO...LOCATED ABOUT 380 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS
MEXICO.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO HAVE BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

A WEAK LOW...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ELIDA...IS LOCATED
ABOUT 1150 MILES EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAVE DIMINISHED AND
REDEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS IS NOT LIKELY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/KNABB

[KWT]

Actually that presentation is very similar to Dolly about 12hrs before it was upgraded!
Looking likely this will be our next EPAC system in what has been a very active first part of the season out there.