BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
100 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008
...DOLLY NOT QUITE A HURRICANE YET...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO
AND THE UNITED STATES. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS
CHRISTI TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LA
PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.9 WEST OR ABOUT 195
MILES...310 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
DOLLY HAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE BIT AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
MOTION WOULD BRING THE CORE OF DOLLY NEAR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OR
EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR
WEDNESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.
DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER MUCH OF SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...24.3 N...94.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Dolly HPC advisories
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 37123
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: Dolly advisories
0 likes
-
Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 37123
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: Dolly advisories
HURRICANE DOLLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
2100 UTC TUE JUL 22 2008
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO
AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS
CHRISTI TO SAN LUIS PASS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LA
PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 95.3W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 0SE 15SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 45SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT.......140NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 180SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 95.3W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 94.9W
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 25.3N 96.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 26.0N 97.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 15NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 26.0N 99.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 25NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 26.0N 100.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 95.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
400 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008
..DOLLY BECOMES A HURRICANE THE SECOND OF THE 2008 HURRICANE
SEASON...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO
AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS
CHRISTI TO SAN LUIS PASS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LA
PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.3 WEST OR ABOUT 165 MILES...
265 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CORE OF DOLLY NEAR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
OR EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE
LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO REACH
THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS LATER TONIGHT.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS
986 MB...29.12 INCHES.
DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER MUCH OF SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTS.
REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...24.6 N...95.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM CDT.
HURRICANE DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
500 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008
DOLLY IS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED BY THE NWS RADAR FROM
BROWNSVILLE...NOAA BUOYS..SATELLITE AND VERY IMPORTANTLY...BY AN
AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT. THE RADAR IS MEASURING 75
KNOTS AT ABOUT 20 THOUSAND FEET AND SHOW NUMEROUS RAINBANDS ALREADY
APPROACHING THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS.
DVORAK ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT DOLLY IS A HURRICANE AND WIND DATA
JUST RECEIVED FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAVE CONFIRMED IT.
INITIAL INTENSITY IS 65 KNOTS. WITH THE PREVAILING LOW
SHEAR...DOLLY IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST A LITTLE BIT STRONGER.
DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS.
THIS GENERAL TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A
SMALL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF DOLLY
SHOULD BE NEAR THE US/MEXICO BORDER WITHIN THE WARNING AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. DOLLY IS LARGE CYCLONE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT. AFTER LANDFALL...DOLLY
SHOULD TURN MORE TO WEST AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH
OF THE CYCLONE. MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
BRINGING THE CORE OF DOLLY INLAND IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. IT SHOULD BE
RE-EMPHASIZED THAT...DUE TO THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES...ONE MUST
NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT LANDFALL POINT IN THIS FORECAST.
DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION AT LANDFALL...DOLLY COULD DUMP VERY HEAVY
RAINS IN THE AREA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/2100Z 24.6N 95.3W 65 KT
12HR VT 23/0600Z 25.3N 96.4W 70 KT
24HR VT 23/1800Z 26.0N 97.5W 80 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 24/0600Z 26.0N 99.0W 40 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 24/1800Z 26.0N 100.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
2100 UTC TUE JUL 22 2008
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO
AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS
CHRISTI TO SAN LUIS PASS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LA
PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 95.3W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 0SE 15SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 45SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT.......140NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 180SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 95.3W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 94.9W
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 25.3N 96.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 26.0N 97.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 15NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 26.0N 99.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 25NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 26.0N 100.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 95.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
400 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008
..DOLLY BECOMES A HURRICANE THE SECOND OF THE 2008 HURRICANE
SEASON...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO
AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS
CHRISTI TO SAN LUIS PASS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LA
PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.3 WEST OR ABOUT 165 MILES...
265 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CORE OF DOLLY NEAR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
OR EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE
LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO REACH
THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS LATER TONIGHT.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS
986 MB...29.12 INCHES.
DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER MUCH OF SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTS.
REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...24.6 N...95.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM CDT.
HURRICANE DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
500 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008
DOLLY IS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED BY THE NWS RADAR FROM
BROWNSVILLE...NOAA BUOYS..SATELLITE AND VERY IMPORTANTLY...BY AN
AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT. THE RADAR IS MEASURING 75
KNOTS AT ABOUT 20 THOUSAND FEET AND SHOW NUMEROUS RAINBANDS ALREADY
APPROACHING THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS.
DVORAK ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT DOLLY IS A HURRICANE AND WIND DATA
JUST RECEIVED FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAVE CONFIRMED IT.
INITIAL INTENSITY IS 65 KNOTS. WITH THE PREVAILING LOW
SHEAR...DOLLY IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST A LITTLE BIT STRONGER.
DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS.
THIS GENERAL TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A
SMALL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF DOLLY
SHOULD BE NEAR THE US/MEXICO BORDER WITHIN THE WARNING AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. DOLLY IS LARGE CYCLONE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT. AFTER LANDFALL...DOLLY
SHOULD TURN MORE TO WEST AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH
OF THE CYCLONE. MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
BRINGING THE CORE OF DOLLY INLAND IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. IT SHOULD BE
RE-EMPHASIZED THAT...DUE TO THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES...ONE MUST
NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT LANDFALL POINT IN THIS FORECAST.
DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION AT LANDFALL...DOLLY COULD DUMP VERY HEAVY
RAINS IN THE AREA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/2100Z 24.6N 95.3W 65 KT
12HR VT 23/0600Z 25.3N 96.4W 70 KT
24HR VT 23/1800Z 26.0N 97.5W 80 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 24/0600Z 26.0N 99.0W 40 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 24/1800Z 26.0N 100.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
0 likes
-
Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 37123
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: Dolly advisories
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
700 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008
..DOLLY CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO
AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS
CHRISTI TO SAN LUIS PASS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LA
PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 700 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.7 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES...
205 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH...18 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL OF THE CENTER OF
DOLLY ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OR EXTREME SOUTHERN
TEXAS NEAR MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO REACH
THE COASTS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS LATER TONIGHT.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.
DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER MUCH OF SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTS.
REPEATING THE 700 PM CDT POSITION...24.9 N...95.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 PM CDT.
HURRICANE DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
700 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008
..DOLLY CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO
AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS
CHRISTI TO SAN LUIS PASS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LA
PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 700 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.7 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES...
205 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH...18 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL OF THE CENTER OF
DOLLY ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OR EXTREME SOUTHERN
TEXAS NEAR MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO REACH
THE COASTS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS LATER TONIGHT.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.
DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER MUCH OF SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTS.
REPEATING THE 700 PM CDT POSITION...24.9 N...95.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 PM CDT.
0 likes
-
Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 37123
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: Dolly advisories
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
1000 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008
...DOLLY A LITTLE STRONGER...MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO
AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS
CHRISTI TO SAN LUIS PASS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM LA
PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.0 WEST OR ABOUT 110 MILES...
175 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
FURTHER REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL BE ALONG THE COAST
NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER AROUND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO REACH
THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA
IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.
DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...25.1 N...96.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
HURRICANE DOLLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
0300 UTC WED JUL 23 2008
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO
AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS
CHRISTI TO SAN LUIS PASS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM LA
PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 96.0W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 150SE 60SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 96.0W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 95.7W
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 25.7N 97.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 95 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 26.1N 98.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 70 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 26.3N 99.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.1N 96.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
HURRICANE DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
1100 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD BEEN FALLING AT A LITTLE OVER 1 MB/HR
EARLIER THIS EVENING...BUT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS APPEARS TO
HAVE LEVELED OFF. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SFMR ON THE NOAA
AIRCRAFT WERE 70 KT...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED ON
THIS BASIS. DOLLY HAS SPENT THE LAST 12 HOURS OR SO TRAVERSING A
COOL GULF RING...AND THIS ENCOUNTER MAY BE SLOWING THE
INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE
CYCLONE`S OUTFLOW IS BEGINNING TO BECOME RESTRICTED TO THE WEST BY
A NARROW UPPER LOW OVER WEST TEXAS. CONVECTION REMAINS
ASYMMETRIC...FAVORING THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND THE RADAR
PRESENTATION HAS NOT IMPROVED APPRECIABLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. THESE OBSERVATIONS LEAD ME TO BELIEVE THAT ONLY MODEST
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL...
ASSUMING...OF COURSE...THAT DOLLY DOES NOT REMAIN OVER WATER
SIGNIFICANTLY LONGER THAN EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SPLITS
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SHIPS/LGEM AND THE GFDL.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/8. THE FORWARD SPEED HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
SLOWING DURING THE DAY...AS A MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND WEAKENS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. MODEL GUIDANCE...CONTINUES TO
SLOW THE FORWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...TO 5 KT OR LESS
IN THE CASE OF THE GFS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN QUITE GOOD WITH THE
VARIATIONS IN SPEED WITH THIS STORM SO FAR...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.
AFTER LANDFALL...DOLLY SHOULD TURN WESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER
SPEED TO THE SOUTH OF A SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
SHOULD DOLLY SLOW AS MUCH AS THE GFS IS FORECASTING...THE CURRENT
RAINFALL ESTIMATES...OF UP TO 15 INCHES IN SPOTS...WILL LIKELY BE
LOW.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/0300Z 25.1N 96.0W 70 KT
12HR VT 23/1200Z 25.7N 97.0W 80 KT
24HR VT 24/0000Z 26.1N 98.3W 50 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 24/1200Z 26.3N 99.8W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
HURRICANE DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
1000 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008
...DOLLY A LITTLE STRONGER...MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO
AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS
CHRISTI TO SAN LUIS PASS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM LA
PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.0 WEST OR ABOUT 110 MILES...
175 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
FURTHER REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL BE ALONG THE COAST
NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER AROUND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO REACH
THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA
IS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.
DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...25.1 N...96.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
HURRICANE DOLLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
0300 UTC WED JUL 23 2008
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO
AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS
CHRISTI TO SAN LUIS PASS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM LA
PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 96.0W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 150SE 60SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 96.0W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 95.7W
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 25.7N 97.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 95 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 26.1N 98.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 70 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 26.3N 99.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.1N 96.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
HURRICANE DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
1100 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD BEEN FALLING AT A LITTLE OVER 1 MB/HR
EARLIER THIS EVENING...BUT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS APPEARS TO
HAVE LEVELED OFF. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SFMR ON THE NOAA
AIRCRAFT WERE 70 KT...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED ON
THIS BASIS. DOLLY HAS SPENT THE LAST 12 HOURS OR SO TRAVERSING A
COOL GULF RING...AND THIS ENCOUNTER MAY BE SLOWING THE
INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE
CYCLONE`S OUTFLOW IS BEGINNING TO BECOME RESTRICTED TO THE WEST BY
A NARROW UPPER LOW OVER WEST TEXAS. CONVECTION REMAINS
ASYMMETRIC...FAVORING THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND THE RADAR
PRESENTATION HAS NOT IMPROVED APPRECIABLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. THESE OBSERVATIONS LEAD ME TO BELIEVE THAT ONLY MODEST
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL...
ASSUMING...OF COURSE...THAT DOLLY DOES NOT REMAIN OVER WATER
SIGNIFICANTLY LONGER THAN EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SPLITS
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SHIPS/LGEM AND THE GFDL.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/8. THE FORWARD SPEED HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
SLOWING DURING THE DAY...AS A MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND WEAKENS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. MODEL GUIDANCE...CONTINUES TO
SLOW THE FORWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...TO 5 KT OR LESS
IN THE CASE OF THE GFS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN QUITE GOOD WITH THE
VARIATIONS IN SPEED WITH THIS STORM SO FAR...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.
AFTER LANDFALL...DOLLY SHOULD TURN WESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER
SPEED TO THE SOUTH OF A SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
SHOULD DOLLY SLOW AS MUCH AS THE GFS IS FORECASTING...THE CURRENT
RAINFALL ESTIMATES...OF UP TO 15 INCHES IN SPOTS...WILL LIKELY BE
LOW.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/0300Z 25.1N 96.0W 70 KT
12HR VT 23/1200Z 25.7N 97.0W 80 KT
24HR VT 24/0000Z 26.1N 98.3W 50 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 24/1200Z 26.3N 99.8W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
0 likes
-
Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 37123
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: Dolly advisories
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
100 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008
...RAINBANDS OF DOLLY CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE COAST...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO
AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS
CHRISTI TO SAN LUIS PASS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM LA
PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 100 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.3 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES...
140 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. SOME
FURTHER DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL BE ALONG THE COAST
NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER AROUND MIDDAY TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVATIONS FROM BROWNSVILLE SUGGEST
THAT THE HURRICANE IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND SOME
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO REACH
THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.
DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
REPEATING THE 100 AM CDT POSITION...25.3 N...96.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
HURRICANE DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
100 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008
...RAINBANDS OF DOLLY CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE COAST...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO
AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS
CHRISTI TO SAN LUIS PASS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM LA
PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 100 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.3 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES...
140 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. SOME
FURTHER DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL BE ALONG THE COAST
NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER AROUND MIDDAY TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVATIONS FROM BROWNSVILLE SUGGEST
THAT THE HURRICANE IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND SOME
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO REACH
THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.
DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
REPEATING THE 100 AM CDT POSITION...25.3 N...96.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
0 likes
ZCZC MIATCEAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DOLLY TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
200 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008
AT 2 AM CDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS ESTIMATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.3 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES...135
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NNNN
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DOLLY TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
200 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008
AT 2 AM CDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS ESTIMATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.3 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES...135
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NNNN
0 likes
Re: Dolly advisories
ZCZC MIATCEAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DOLLY TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
300 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008
AT 3 AM CDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS ESTIMATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.4 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES...120
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NNNN
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DOLLY TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
300 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008
AT 3 AM CDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS ESTIMATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.4 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES...120
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NNNN
0 likes
-
americanrebel
- Category 1
- Posts: 399
- Age: 47
- Joined: Tue Sep 18, 2007 3:42 pm
- Location: Intracoastal City, La.
Re: Dolly advisories
So she has moved 5 miles due NW in the last hour, really has slowed down.
0 likes
Re: Dolly advisories
americanrebel wrote:So she has moved 5 miles due NW in the last hour, really has slowed down.
Could be some rounding issues too. It could have moved from 82 to 73 miles away, but that would still be shown as 80 to 75.
0 likes
-
JonathanBelles
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 11430
- Age: 33
- Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
- Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
- Contact:
WTNT34 KNHC 230844
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
400 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008
...DOLLY STRENGTHENS AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO
AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS
CHRISTI TO SAN LUIS PASS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM LA
PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 400 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.5 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES...
105 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND
NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF DOLLY WILL BE ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO
BORDER AROUND MIDDAY TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED...AND DOLLY COULD APPROACH CATEGORY TWO INTENSITY WHEN IT
REACHES THE COASTLINE LATER TODAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY
REPORTED THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 976
MB...28.82 INCHES.
DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS
WILL LIKELY CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.
REPEATING THE 400 AM CDT POSITION...25.6 N...96.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
400 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008
...DOLLY STRENGTHENS AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO
AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS
CHRISTI TO SAN LUIS PASS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM LA
PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 400 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.5 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES...
105 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND
NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF DOLLY WILL BE ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO
BORDER AROUND MIDDAY TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED...AND DOLLY COULD APPROACH CATEGORY TWO INTENSITY WHEN IT
REACHES THE COASTLINE LATER TODAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY
REPORTED THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 976
MB...28.82 INCHES.
DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS
WILL LIKELY CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.
REPEATING THE 400 AM CDT POSITION...25.6 N...96.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
0 likes
-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
412
WTNT34 KNHC 231056
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
600 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008
...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
COAST...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO
AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS
CHRISTI TO SAN LUIS PASS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM LA
PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 600 AM CDT...1100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.6 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES...
90 KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND
NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF DOLLY WILL BE ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO
BORDER AROUND MIDDAY TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED...AND DOLLY COULD
APPROACH CATEGORY TWO INTENSITY WHEN IT REACHES THE COASTLINE LATER
TODAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY
REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 972 MB...28.70 INCHES.
DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS
WILL LIKELY CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.
REPEATING THE 600 AM CDT POSITION...25.8 N...96.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
WTNT34 KNHC 231056
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
600 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008
...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
COAST...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO
AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS
CHRISTI TO SAN LUIS PASS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM LA
PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 600 AM CDT...1100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.6 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES...
90 KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND
NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF DOLLY WILL BE ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO
BORDER AROUND MIDDAY TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED...AND DOLLY COULD
APPROACH CATEGORY TWO INTENSITY WHEN IT REACHES THE COASTLINE LATER
TODAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY
REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 972 MB...28.70 INCHES.
DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS
WILL LIKELY CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.
REPEATING THE 600 AM CDT POSITION...25.8 N...96.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
0 likes
Re: Dolly advisories
000
WTNT34 KNHC 231250
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
800 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008
...DOLLY STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO
AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS
CHRISTI TO SAN LUIS PASS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM LA
PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM CDT...1300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.9 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES...
60 KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND
NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF DOLLY WILL BE ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO
BORDER AROUND MIDDAY TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 95 MPH...155
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED...AND DOLLY COULD APPROACH CATEGORY TWO INTENSITY WHEN IT
REACHES THE COASTLINE LATER TODAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. PORT ISABEL ON THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST JUST
REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 72 MPH...116 KM/HR AND MATAMOROS MEXICO
REPORTED GUSTS TO 55 MPH...89 KM/HR.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY
REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.
DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS
WILL LIKELY CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.
REPEATING THE 800 AM CDT POSITION...25.9 N...96.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...95 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1000 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
WTNT34 KNHC 231250
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
800 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008
...DOLLY STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO
AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS
CHRISTI TO SAN LUIS PASS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM LA
PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM CDT...1300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.9 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES...
60 KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND
NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF DOLLY WILL BE ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO
BORDER AROUND MIDDAY TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 95 MPH...155
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED...AND DOLLY COULD APPROACH CATEGORY TWO INTENSITY WHEN IT
REACHES THE COASTLINE LATER TODAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. PORT ISABEL ON THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST JUST
REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 72 MPH...116 KM/HR AND MATAMOROS MEXICO
REPORTED GUSTS TO 55 MPH...89 KM/HR.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY
REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.
DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS
WILL LIKELY CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.
REPEATING THE 800 AM CDT POSITION...25.9 N...96.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...95 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1000 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
0 likes
-
Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 37123
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: Dolly advisories
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
1000 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008
..DOLLY VERY NEAR THE TEXAS COAST WITH 100 MPH WINDS
EYE SHOULD CROSS THE COAST IN A FEW HOURS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO
AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH OF PORT
O'CONNOR HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI TO PORT O'CONNOR.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM LA
PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED
BY RADAR AND A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 97.0 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES...50 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR.
A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE EYE OF
HURRICANE DOLLY WILL BE CROSSING THE COAST NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO
BORDER IN A FEW HOURS. PERSONS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUTDOORS
DURING THE RELATIVE CALM OF THE EYE BECAUSE WINDS WILL SOON
INCREASE QUITE RAPIDLY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS...ARE LIKELY ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. PORT ISABEL AIRPORT JUST MEASURED 54 MPH...87 KM/HR
SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH...113 KM/HR. AN UNOFFICIAL
OBSERVER JUST EAST OF MATAMOROS MEXICO REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF
65 MPH...105 KM/HR WITH GUSTS TO 119 MPH...192 KM/HR.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WAS IS 964 MB...28.47 INCHES.
DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS
WILL LIKELY CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.
REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...26.0 N...97.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB.
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1200 PM CDT AND 200 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 400 PM CDT.
HURRICANE DOLLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
1500 UTC WED JUL 23 2008
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO
AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH OF PORT
O`CONNOR HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI TO PORT O`CONNOR.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM LA
PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 97.0W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 150SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 97.0W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 96.7W
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 26.5N 97.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 27.0N 99.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 27.0N 101.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.0N 97.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
HURRICANE DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
1100 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2008
DOLLY IS STRENGTHENING. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 964 MB
WITH A PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 92 KNOTS. DOPPLER WINDS FROM THE
NWS RADAR AT BROWNSVILLE HAVE BEEN OSCILLATING BETWEEN 95 AND 109
KNOTS AROUND 2000 FEET ALTITUDE...AND THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS
IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE YESTERDAY. IT HAS NOW A RAGGED EYE ON
BOTH VIS AND IR IMAGES. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO
85 KNOTS...MAKING DOLLY A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL.
RADAR AND AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT DOLLY IS MOVING ON A GENERAL
NORTHWEST TRACK OR 305 DEGREES AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS. HOWEVER...DOLLY IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN A LITTLE...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN MORE TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY. THIS TRACK SHOULD BRING THE CORE OF
THE HURRICANE INLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...A
DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
SHOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK.
SHOULD DOLLY MOVE MORE SLOWLY OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS THAN WE
ARE FORECASTING...IT IS POSSIBLE FOR IT TO PRODUCE EVEN MORE
RAINFALL THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY PREDICTING.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/1500Z 26.0N 97.0W 85 KT
12HR VT 24/0000Z 26.5N 97.8W 80 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 24/1200Z 27.0N 99.5W 45 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 25/0000Z 27.0N 101.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
HURRICANE DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
1000 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2008
..DOLLY VERY NEAR THE TEXAS COAST WITH 100 MPH WINDS
EYE SHOULD CROSS THE COAST IN A FEW HOURS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO
AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH OF PORT
O'CONNOR HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI TO PORT O'CONNOR.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM LA
PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED
BY RADAR AND A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 97.0 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES...50 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR.
A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE EYE OF
HURRICANE DOLLY WILL BE CROSSING THE COAST NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO
BORDER IN A FEW HOURS. PERSONS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUTDOORS
DURING THE RELATIVE CALM OF THE EYE BECAUSE WINDS WILL SOON
INCREASE QUITE RAPIDLY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS...ARE LIKELY ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. PORT ISABEL AIRPORT JUST MEASURED 54 MPH...87 KM/HR
SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH...113 KM/HR. AN UNOFFICIAL
OBSERVER JUST EAST OF MATAMOROS MEXICO REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF
65 MPH...105 KM/HR WITH GUSTS TO 119 MPH...192 KM/HR.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WAS IS 964 MB...28.47 INCHES.
DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS
WILL LIKELY CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.
REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...26.0 N...97.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB.
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1200 PM CDT AND 200 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 400 PM CDT.
HURRICANE DOLLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
1500 UTC WED JUL 23 2008
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO
AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH OF PORT
O`CONNOR HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI TO PORT O`CONNOR.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM LA
PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 97.0W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 150SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 97.0W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 96.7W
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 26.5N 97.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 27.0N 99.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 27.0N 101.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.0N 97.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
HURRICANE DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
1100 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2008
DOLLY IS STRENGTHENING. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 964 MB
WITH A PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 92 KNOTS. DOPPLER WINDS FROM THE
NWS RADAR AT BROWNSVILLE HAVE BEEN OSCILLATING BETWEEN 95 AND 109
KNOTS AROUND 2000 FEET ALTITUDE...AND THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS
IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE YESTERDAY. IT HAS NOW A RAGGED EYE ON
BOTH VIS AND IR IMAGES. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO
85 KNOTS...MAKING DOLLY A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL.
RADAR AND AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT DOLLY IS MOVING ON A GENERAL
NORTHWEST TRACK OR 305 DEGREES AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS. HOWEVER...DOLLY IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN A LITTLE...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN MORE TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY. THIS TRACK SHOULD BRING THE CORE OF
THE HURRICANE INLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...A
DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
SHOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK.
SHOULD DOLLY MOVE MORE SLOWLY OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS THAN WE
ARE FORECASTING...IT IS POSSIBLE FOR IT TO PRODUCE EVEN MORE
RAINFALL THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY PREDICTING.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/1500Z 26.0N 97.0W 85 KT
12HR VT 24/0000Z 26.5N 97.8W 80 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 24/1200Z 27.0N 99.5W 45 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 25/0000Z 27.0N 101.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
0 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139235
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Dolly advisories
WTNT34 KNHC 231658
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
1200 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008
...DOLLY HESITATES...EYEWALL OF DOLLY CROSSING SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO
AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS
CHRISTI TO PORT O'CONNOR.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM LA
PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1200 PM CDT...1700Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.0 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES...
60 KM...NORTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
DOLLY HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR THE PAST HOUR OR SO BUT IT SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR SOON.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DOLLY WILL BE CROSSING
THE COAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST IN A COUPLE OF HOURS.
PERSONS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUTDOORS DURING THE RELATIVE
CALM OF THE EYE BECAUSE WINDS WILL SOON INCREASE QUITE RAPIDLY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE
LIKELY ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH
IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. PORT ISABEL AIRPORT JUST MEASURED 58 MPH...92 KM/HR
SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH...113 KM/HR.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WAS IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.
DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE
RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.
REPEATING THE 1200 PM CDT POSITION...26.2 N...97.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
1200 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008
...DOLLY HESITATES...EYEWALL OF DOLLY CROSSING SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO
AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS
CHRISTI TO PORT O'CONNOR.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM LA
PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1200 PM CDT...1700Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.0 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES...
60 KM...NORTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
DOLLY HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR THE PAST HOUR OR SO BUT IT SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR SOON.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DOLLY WILL BE CROSSING
THE COAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST IN A COUPLE OF HOURS.
PERSONS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUTDOORS DURING THE RELATIVE
CALM OF THE EYE BECAUSE WINDS WILL SOON INCREASE QUITE RAPIDLY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE
LIKELY ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH
IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. PORT ISABEL AIRPORT JUST MEASURED 58 MPH...92 KM/HR
SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH...113 KM/HR.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WAS IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.
DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE
RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.
REPEATING THE 1200 PM CDT POSITION...26.2 N...97.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
0 likes
-
Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 37123
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: Dolly advisories
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
200 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008
...DOLLY MADE LANDFALL IN SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...EXPECTED TO MOVE
FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS LATER TODAY...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO
AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS
CHRISTI TO PORT O'CONNOR.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM LA
PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 PM CDT...1900Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.3 WEST. THIS POSITION IS
OVER LAGUNA MADRE ABOUT 35 MILES...60 KM... NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND 30 MILES...51 KM...EAST SOUTHEAST OF
RAYMONDVILLE.
DOLLY IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DOLLY WILL BE MOVING
INLAND OVER FAR SOUTH TEXAS LATER TODAY. PERSONS ARE ADVISED NOT TO
VENTURE OUTDOORS DURING THE RELATIVE CALM OF THE EYE BECAUSE WINDS
WILL SOON INCREASE QUITE RAPIDLY.
BECAUSE A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION OF DOLLY HAS BEEN INTERACTING
WITH LAND...THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 95
MPH... 150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS NOW A CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY
IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING
SHOULD BEGIN SOON AS THE EYE MOVES FARTHER INLAND.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. HARLINGEN TEXAS MEASURED 54 MPH...87 KM/HR SUSTAINED
WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 74 MPH...119 KM/HR.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE AT LANDFALL WAS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.
DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
BROWNSVILLE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR HAS ESTIMATED UP
TO A FOOT OF RAIN SO FAR OVER PORTIONS OF COASTAL FAR SOUTH TEXAS.
THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.
REPEATING THE 200 PM CDT POSITION....26.4 N...97.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...95
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
HURRICANE DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
200 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008
...DOLLY MADE LANDFALL IN SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...EXPECTED TO MOVE
FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS LATER TODAY...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO
AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS
CHRISTI TO PORT O'CONNOR.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM LA
PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 PM CDT...1900Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.3 WEST. THIS POSITION IS
OVER LAGUNA MADRE ABOUT 35 MILES...60 KM... NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND 30 MILES...51 KM...EAST SOUTHEAST OF
RAYMONDVILLE.
DOLLY IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DOLLY WILL BE MOVING
INLAND OVER FAR SOUTH TEXAS LATER TODAY. PERSONS ARE ADVISED NOT TO
VENTURE OUTDOORS DURING THE RELATIVE CALM OF THE EYE BECAUSE WINDS
WILL SOON INCREASE QUITE RAPIDLY.
BECAUSE A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION OF DOLLY HAS BEEN INTERACTING
WITH LAND...THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 95
MPH... 150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS NOW A CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY
IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING
SHOULD BEGIN SOON AS THE EYE MOVES FARTHER INLAND.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. HARLINGEN TEXAS MEASURED 54 MPH...87 KM/HR SUSTAINED
WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 74 MPH...119 KM/HR.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE AT LANDFALL WAS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.
DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
BROWNSVILLE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR HAS ESTIMATED UP
TO A FOOT OF RAIN SO FAR OVER PORTIONS OF COASTAL FAR SOUTH TEXAS.
THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.
REPEATING THE 200 PM CDT POSITION....26.4 N...97.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...95
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
0 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139235
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Dolly advisories
752
WTNT34 KNHC 232043
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
400 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008
...DOLLY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO JUST SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER
BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED.
AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM BAFFIN BAY
NORTHWARD TO CORPUS CHRISTI HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT O'CONNOR.
AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE
WATCH FROM LA PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.6 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES...
80 KM...NORTH OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS WILL BRING DOLLY FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHER
TEXAS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.
DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING UP TO 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW BUT WILL
SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.
REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...26.6 N...97.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
WTNT44 KNHC 232045
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
500 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008
THE EYE OF DOLLY MADE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN PADRE ISLAND EARLIER
TODAY AS A BORDERLINE CATEGORY ONE TO CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE AT LANDFALL
REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 967 MB AND WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED BETWEEN 80 AND 85 KNOTS. THE EYE IS NOW PARTIALLY INLAND
OVER FAR SOUTH TEXAS AND BECAUSE THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY
INTERACTING WITH LAND...A GRADUAL WEAKENING HAS BEGUN. INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED A 75 KNOTS AND A CONTINUED WEAKENING IS
FORECAST AS DOLLY MOVES FARTHER INLAND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
FOLLOWS CLOSELY THE INLAND DECAY SHIPS MODEL.
DOLLY BEGAN TO MOVE ON A MORE STEADY NORTHWEST TRACK AT ABOUT 7
KNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS NOW LOCATED SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...THEREFORE...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT
48 HOURS.
DOLLY IS A LARGE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM AND CAN CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY RAINS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/2100Z 26.6N 97.6W 75 KT
12HR VT 24/0600Z 27.0N 98.5W 45 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 24/1800Z 27.5N 99.5W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 25/0600Z 28.0N 102.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
WTNT34 KNHC 232043
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
400 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008
...DOLLY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO JUST SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER
BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED.
AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM BAFFIN BAY
NORTHWARD TO CORPUS CHRISTI HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT O'CONNOR.
AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE
WATCH FROM LA PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.6 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES...
80 KM...NORTH OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS WILL BRING DOLLY FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHER
TEXAS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.
DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING UP TO 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW BUT WILL
SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.
REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...26.6 N...97.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
WTNT44 KNHC 232045
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
500 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008
THE EYE OF DOLLY MADE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN PADRE ISLAND EARLIER
TODAY AS A BORDERLINE CATEGORY ONE TO CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE AT LANDFALL
REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 967 MB AND WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED BETWEEN 80 AND 85 KNOTS. THE EYE IS NOW PARTIALLY INLAND
OVER FAR SOUTH TEXAS AND BECAUSE THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY
INTERACTING WITH LAND...A GRADUAL WEAKENING HAS BEGUN. INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED A 75 KNOTS AND A CONTINUED WEAKENING IS
FORECAST AS DOLLY MOVES FARTHER INLAND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
FOLLOWS CLOSELY THE INLAND DECAY SHIPS MODEL.
DOLLY BEGAN TO MOVE ON A MORE STEADY NORTHWEST TRACK AT ABOUT 7
KNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS NOW LOCATED SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...THEREFORE...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT
48 HOURS.
DOLLY IS A LARGE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM AND CAN CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY RAINS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/2100Z 26.6N 97.6W 75 KT
12HR VT 24/0600Z 27.0N 98.5W 45 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 24/1800Z 27.5N 99.5W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 25/0600Z 28.0N 102.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
0 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139235
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Dolly advisories
WTNT34 KNHC 232336
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
700 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008
...HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS CONTINUE OVER SOUTH TEXAS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO JUST SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER
BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT O'CONNOR.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 700 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED
INLAND OVER EXTREME SOUTH TEXAS NEAR LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE
98.0 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES...95 KM...NORTHWEST OF BROWNSVILLE
TEXAS.
DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...TAKING DOLLY
FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTH TEXAS. A TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED BY
LATE TOMORROW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
STORM LATER TONIGHT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.
DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING UP TO 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW BUT WILL
SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.
REPEATING THE 700 PM CDT POSITION...26.6 N...98.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
700 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008
...HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS CONTINUE OVER SOUTH TEXAS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO JUST SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY...AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER
BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT O'CONNOR.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 700 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED
INLAND OVER EXTREME SOUTH TEXAS NEAR LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE
98.0 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES...95 KM...NORTHWEST OF BROWNSVILLE
TEXAS.
DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...TAKING DOLLY
FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTH TEXAS. A TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED BY
LATE TOMORROW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
STORM LATER TONIGHT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.
DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING UP TO 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW BUT WILL
SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.
REPEATING THE 700 PM CDT POSITION...26.6 N...98.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
0 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139235
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Dolly advisories
216
WTNT44 KNHC 240236
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
1100 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008
THE EYE REMAINS VERY WELL DEFINED IN THE BROWNSVILLE RADAR ALTHOUGH
IT IS BECOMING LESS DISTINCT IN INFRARED IMAGERY. THE RADAR IS
SHOWING SOME INBOUND VELOCITIES OF UP TO 78 KT OR SO AT ABOUT 2900
FT. THIS WOULD NORMALLY CORRESPOND TO MINIMAL HURRICANE FORCE AT
THE SURFACE OVER WATER...BUT NOT OVER LAND...AND DOLLY IS
DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM ON THIS BASIS. CONTINUED WEAKENING
IS FORECAST IN ACCORD WITH THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL...WITH DOLLY
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN 36-48 HOURS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/6. THE LARGE SCALE MODELS SHOW THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SLIDING
EASTWARD A LITTLE BIT...TURNING DOLLY BACK TO A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
HEADING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
EVEN AS THE WINDS SUBSIDE...DOLLY CONTINUES TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINS AND THE ASSOCIATED SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREATS WILL CONTINUE
FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/0300Z 26.5N 98.1W 60 KT
12HR VT 24/1200Z 26.8N 99.0W 40 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 25/0000Z 27.6N 100.8W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 25/1200Z 28.2N 103.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
WTNT44 KNHC 240236
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
1100 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008
THE EYE REMAINS VERY WELL DEFINED IN THE BROWNSVILLE RADAR ALTHOUGH
IT IS BECOMING LESS DISTINCT IN INFRARED IMAGERY. THE RADAR IS
SHOWING SOME INBOUND VELOCITIES OF UP TO 78 KT OR SO AT ABOUT 2900
FT. THIS WOULD NORMALLY CORRESPOND TO MINIMAL HURRICANE FORCE AT
THE SURFACE OVER WATER...BUT NOT OVER LAND...AND DOLLY IS
DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM ON THIS BASIS. CONTINUED WEAKENING
IS FORECAST IN ACCORD WITH THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL...WITH DOLLY
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN 36-48 HOURS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/6. THE LARGE SCALE MODELS SHOW THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SLIDING
EASTWARD A LITTLE BIT...TURNING DOLLY BACK TO A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
HEADING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
EVEN AS THE WINDS SUBSIDE...DOLLY CONTINUES TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINS AND THE ASSOCIATED SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREATS WILL CONTINUE
FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/0300Z 26.5N 98.1W 60 KT
12HR VT 24/1200Z 26.8N 99.0W 40 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 25/0000Z 27.6N 100.8W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 25/1200Z 28.2N 103.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
0 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139235
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Dolly advisories
156
WTNT34 KNHC 241440
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
1000 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2008
...DOLLY DUMPING HEAVY RAINS AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND...
AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO PORT ARANSAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.3 WEST...VERY NEAR
LAREDO TEXAS.
DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A DAY
OR SO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER. THE WEATHER STATION AT HEBBRONVILLE RECENTLY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 38 MPH...62 KM/HR...WITH A PEAK GUST OF
52 MPH...84 KM/HR.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.
DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE VERY LIKELY TO
CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY.
REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...27.5 N...99.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
WTNT44 KNHC 241440
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
1100 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2008
RADAR AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT DOLLY STILL HAS A LARGE
CIRCULATION ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE BANDS. THE MOST
PROMINENT CONVECTION IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 40 KNOTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS
OBSERVATIONS WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 48 KNOTS EARLIER THISD MORNING. AS
DOLLY MOVES FARTHER INLAND...IT IS EXPECTED TO TO WEAKEN AND SHOULD
BE NO MORE THAN A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO. DESPITE WEAKENING...
DOLLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINS AND SIGNIFICANT
INLAND FLOODING.
THE CENTER OF DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 8
KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SO THIS GENERAL
TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A DAY OR SO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/1500Z 27.5N 99.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 25/0000Z 28.0N 100.5W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 25/1200Z 28.5N 103.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
WTNT34 KNHC 241440
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
1000 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2008
...DOLLY DUMPING HEAVY RAINS AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND...
AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO PORT ARANSAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.3 WEST...VERY NEAR
LAREDO TEXAS.
DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A DAY
OR SO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER. THE WEATHER STATION AT HEBBRONVILLE RECENTLY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 38 MPH...62 KM/HR...WITH A PEAK GUST OF
52 MPH...84 KM/HR.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.
DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE VERY LIKELY TO
CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY.
REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...27.5 N...99.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
WTNT44 KNHC 241440
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
1100 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2008
RADAR AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT DOLLY STILL HAS A LARGE
CIRCULATION ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE BANDS. THE MOST
PROMINENT CONVECTION IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 40 KNOTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS
OBSERVATIONS WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 48 KNOTS EARLIER THISD MORNING. AS
DOLLY MOVES FARTHER INLAND...IT IS EXPECTED TO TO WEAKEN AND SHOULD
BE NO MORE THAN A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO. DESPITE WEAKENING...
DOLLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINS AND SIGNIFICANT
INLAND FLOODING.
THE CENTER OF DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 8
KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SO THIS GENERAL
TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A DAY OR SO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/1500Z 27.5N 99.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 25/0000Z 28.0N 100.5W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 25/1200Z 28.5N 103.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
0 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139235
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Dolly advisories
257
WTNT34 KNHC 241738
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
100 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2008
...DOLLY WEAKENING AND MOVING A LITTLE FASTER...
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.8 WEST...VERY NEAR
THE U.S. MEXICO BORDER...ABOUT 30 MILES...50 KM...NORTHWEST OF
LAREDO TEXAS.
DOLLY HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...22 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A DAY OR SO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A FEW RAINBANDS TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE VERY LIKELY TO
CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY.
REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...27.9 N...99.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
WTNT34 KNHC 241738
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
100 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2008
...DOLLY WEAKENING AND MOVING A LITTLE FASTER...
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.8 WEST...VERY NEAR
THE U.S. MEXICO BORDER...ABOUT 30 MILES...50 KM...NORTHWEST OF
LAREDO TEXAS.
DOLLY HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...22 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A DAY OR SO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A FEW RAINBANDS TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.
DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES...OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE VERY LIKELY TO
CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY.
REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...27.9 N...99.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 21 guests