WPAC: TD (ex-Typhoon Fung-wong) inland in China

[RattleMan]

WTPQ20 RJTD 270000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0808 FUNG-WONG (0808) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270000UTC 21.7N 124.9E GOOD
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
24HF 280000UTC 23.9N 121.7E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 290000UTC 26.7N 118.7E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 300000UTC 28.5N 117.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

[Chacor]

The JMA is now issuing hourly bulletins and six-hourly forecasts due to threat to Japan.

01z:

Code: Select all

TY 0808 (Fung-wong)
Issued at 01:50 UTC, 27 July 2008
<Analyses at 27/01 UTC>
Scale                           -
Intensity                       Strong
Center position                 N21°50'(21.8°)
                                E124°40'(124.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure                970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the
center                          35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed         50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more      Wide 110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more      Wide 440km(240NM)

That's a very large wind field...

[Chacor]

JTWC now going 100 kt landfall with their 00z.

WTPN31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 09W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 21.5N 124.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5N 124.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 22.4N 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 23.3N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 24.4N 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 25.6N 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 27.8N 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 30.3N 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 21.7N 124.5E.
TYPHOON (TY) 09W (FUNG-WONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z,
271500Z, 272100Z AND 280300Z.//

[RL3AO]

[cycloneye]

[Chacor]

This is a personal forecast. Do not use for important decisions.

This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the Japan Met Agency or your local weather bureau.

BULLETIN
TYPHOON FUNG-WONG BULLETIN NR 6
0245 UTC SUN JULY 27 2008
OPERATIONAL TIME 0000 UTC

...FUNG-WONG STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY...NEARING TAIWANESE COAST...

AT THIS BULLETIN...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS RECOMMENDED FOR
THE WESTERN RYUKYU ISLANDS OF ISHIGAKI...IRIOMOTE...HATERUMA...YONAGUNI...
SHIMOJI-SHIMA...AND MIYAKO...

AT 8 AM TAIPEI TIME...0000Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE WESTERN
COAST OF TAIWAN FROM KAOHSIUNG NORTH TO TAIPEI IS NOW A RECOMMENDED
TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

AT 8 AM TAIPEI TIME...0000Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN
COAST OF TAIWAN FROM THE CITY OF TAITUNG NORTHWARD TO KEELUNG CITY IS
NOW A RECOMMENDED TYPHOON WARNING.

A TYPHOON WATCH IS ALSO RECOMMENDED SOUTH OF TAITUNG TO THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF TAIWAN...AND WEST OF KEELUNG CITY TO TAIPEI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS RECOMMENDED FOR TAIWAN FROM TAIPEI
WEST AND SOUTH TO THE EASTERN CITY OF TAITUNG...INCLUDING OFFSHORE ISLANDS...
AS WELL AS FROM TAIPEI EAST TO KEELUNG CITY.

A TYPHOON WATCH...OR TYPHOON WARNING...MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY
FOR THE WESTERN COAST OF TAIWAN.

AT 8 AM CHINA STANDARD TIME...0000Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS RECOMMENDED
FOR THE EASTERN CHINA COAST FROM JINJIANG NORTHWARD TO HANYANG. THIS IS DUE
TO THE SPREAD GUIDANCE OVER THE SECOND LANDFALL OF THE STORM...WITH THE JTWC
GOING AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTH OF 26N WHILE THE JMA IS NEARLY AT 27N.

AT 8 AM TAIPEI TIME...0000Z...THE CENTRE OF THE EYE OF TYPHOON FUNG-WONG WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.9 EAST...AS CORROBORATED BY
SATELLITE VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY BETWEEN 2330 AND 0030 UTC THIS MORNING.
THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 305 KM...190 MI SOUTH OF ISHIGAKI...AND ABOUT 505 KM OR
315 MI SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI TAIWAN.

THIS IS AN INITIAL MOTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS OF NEAR 289/06...OR WEST-
NORTHWEST...AT AROUND 11 KM/H...7 MPH. A FURTHER TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AND ON THIS FORECAST TRACK FUNG-WONG WILL LIKELY MAKE
LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF HUALIEN CITY BETWEEN 2 AND 8 AM TOMORROW MORNING...AS
THE JTWC AND JMA DIFFER IN LANDFALL TIME.

THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF THE TYPHOON IS 70 KT...A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE JMA'S 65 KT...75 KT FROM THE JTWC...AND 72-74 KT FROM CHINA AND KOREA'S
MET AGENCIES. DVORAK NUMBERS ARE A CONSENSUS T4.5 FROM RJTD...KNES...AND PGTW...
BUT OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE RSMC'S ANALYSIS OF 65 KT...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE
INITIAL INTENSITY ON THE LOWER END...70 KT...130 KM/H...80 MPH...OF THAT SPREAD.

OVERNIGHT...IT APPEARS DRY AIR NEAR THE TAIWANESE COAST...AS MENTIONED IN AN
EARLIER BULLETIN...HAS HAMPERED INTENSIFICATION SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...THE AGENCIES
INVOLVED ALL FORECAST SOME INTENSIFICATION...WITH THE JTWC ON THE HIGH END AT
100 KT 1-MIN OR ABOUT 87 KT 10-MIN...AND THE JMA ON THE LOW END AT 80 KT...WITH
THE CMA AND KMA IN BETWEEN. ASSUMING FUNG-WONG CAN FIGHT OFF WHATEVER DRY AIR
IMPEDING IT...THERE SHOULD BE NO BARRIER TO SOME MORE SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IN
THE 18 TO 24 HOURS IT HAS BEFORE LANDFALL.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE JMA AT 0000Z WAS 970 HPA.

REPEATING THE 0000Z POSITION...21.7 N 124.9 E...ABOUT 305 KM SOUTH OF ISHIGAKI.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 130 KM/H. MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 11
KM/H.

NEXT BULLETIN BY 1200Z.

[senorpepr]

THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF THE TYPHOON IS 70 KT...A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE JMA'S 65 KT...75 KT FROM THE JTWC...AND 72-74 KT FROM CHINA AND KOREA'S
MET AGENCIES. DVORAK NUMBERS ARE A CONSENSUS T4.5 FROM RJTD...KNES...AND PGTW...
BUT OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE RSMC'S ANALYSIS OF 65 KT...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE
INITIAL INTENSITY ON THE LOWER END...70 KT...130 KM/H...80 MPH...OF THAT SPREAD.

What type of time average are you using? 1-min or 10-min? I have a slight problem with your initial intensity because you're using two different types of scales. JMA's 65KT is based on a 10-min average whereas JTWC's 75KT is based on a 1-min average. Essentially, both agencies are reporting the same wind speed, just on different scales.


It's almost like saying, "the temperature is 69°...a compromise between 38°C and 100°F."

[Chacor]

THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF THE TYPHOON IS 70 KT...A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE JMA'S 65 KT...75 KT FROM THE JTWC...AND 72-74 KT FROM CHINA AND KOREA'S
MET AGENCIES. DVORAK NUMBERS ARE A CONSENSUS T4.5 FROM RJTD...KNES...AND PGTW...
BUT OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE RSMC'S ANALYSIS OF 65 KT...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE
INITIAL INTENSITY ON THE LOWER END...70 KT...130 KM/H...80 MPH...OF THAT SPREAD.

What type of time average are you using? 1-min or 10-min? I have a slight problem with your initial intensity because you're using two different types of scales. JMA's 65KT is based on a 10-min average whereas JTWC's 75KT is based on a 1-min average. Essentially, both agencies are reporting the same wind speed, just on different scales.


It's almost like saying, "the temperature is 69°...a compromise between 38°C and 100°F."

True, but you missed the bit about KMA and CMA's (10 and 2 minute, iirc) 74 kt and 72 kt. Perhaps I could have worded it a little better as it wasn't meant solely as a compromise between the four reports. I apologise for that.

[Chacor]

No change at 0600z from the JMA.

WTPQ20 RJTD 270600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0808 FUNG-WONG (0808)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270600UTC 22.1N 124.0E GOOD
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
24HF 280600UTC 24.9N 120.6E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 290600UTC 27.2N 118.0E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 300600UTC 29.1N 116.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

[Chacor]

And here's the marine warning (with a 12-hour forecast point included):

WTJP21 RJTD 270600
WARNING 270600.
WARNING VALID 280600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 0808 FUNG-WONG (0808) 970 HPA
AT 22.1N 124.0E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 23.6N 122.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 24.9N 120.6E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 27.2N 118.0E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300600UTC AT 29.1N 116.7E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[Chacor]

And, of course, the JMA is issuing 6-hourly forecasts due to the threat to the outer Ryukyu Islands.


TY 0808 (Fung-wong)
Issued at 06:55 UTC, 27 July 2008

Code: Select all

<Analyses at 27/06 UTC>
Scale   -
Intensity   Strong
Center position   N22°05'(22.1°)
   E124°00'(124.0°)
Direction and speed of movement   WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure   970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center   35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed   50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more   Wide 110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more   Wide 440km(240NM)

<Estimate for 27/07 UTC>
Scale   -
Intensity   Strong
Center position   N22°05'(22.1°)
   E123°50'(123.8°)
Direction and speed of movement   WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure   970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center   35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed   50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more   Wide 110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more   Wide 440km(240NM)

<Forecast for 27/12 UTC>
Intensity   Strong
Center position of probability circle   N22°50'(22.8°)
   E123°00'(123.0°)
Direction and speed of movement   NW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure   960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center   40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed   55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle   60km(30NM)
Storm warning area   Wide 190km(100NM)

<Forecast for 27/18 UTC>
Intensity   Strong
Center position of probability circle   N23°35'(23.6°)
   E122°00'(122.0°)
Direction and speed of movement   NW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure   950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center   40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed   60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle   90km(50NM)
Storm warning area   Wide 240km(130NM)

<Forecast for 28/00 UTC>
Intensity   Strong
Center position of probability circle   N24°20'(24.3°)
   E121°20'(121.3°)
Direction and speed of movement   NW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure   955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center   40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed   55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle   110km(60NM)
Storm warning area   Wide 240km(130NM)

<Forecast for 28/06 UTC>
Intensity   Strong
Center position of probability circle   N24°55'(24.9°)
   E120°35'(120.6°)
Direction and speed of movement   NW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure   960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center   35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed   50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle   130km(70NM)
Storm warning area   Wide 260km(140NM)

[Chacor]

Here are the most recent satellite bulletins:

JTWC:
TPPN10 PGTW 270607
A. TYPHOON 09W (FUNG-WONG)
B. 27/0530Z
C. 22.1N
D. 124.0E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS (27/0530Z)
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
36A/PBO LARGE EYE/ANMTN. LG SURROUNDING SHADE WITH OW EYE
TEMP YIELDS 5.0 DT. DBO DT. PT AND MET AGREE.

BRANDON

SAB:
WWPN20 KNES 270317
A. 09W (FUNG-WONG)
B. 27/0230Z
C. 22.0N
D. 124.3E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS... RAGGED OW EYE WITH DG SURROUND AND MG RING YIELD DT OF
4.0. MET IS 4.5 AND PT AGREES. FT BASED ON MET.
SPAMPATA

T5.0 from JTWC so they will probably up to 85-90 kts at next advisory.

[KWT]

Looks good right now and I probably would also go to 85kts based on how it looks right now, nice eye feature and a really neat looking structure.

[Chacor]

85 kt from JTWC as expected:
WTPN31 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 09W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 22.1N 124.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1N 124.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 23.1N 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 24.2N 121.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 25.2N 119.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 26.4N 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 28.7N 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 30.8N 116.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 22.4N 123.6E.
TYPHOON (TY) 09W (FUNG-WONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z,
272100Z, 280300Z AND 280900Z.//
NNNN

[apocalypt-flyer]

Fung-wong really does look an awful lot better than 12 hours ago. And I highly doubt that intensification is going on slowly. It'll easily batter Taiwan as a Cat.3 at the very last.

[Chacor]

CMA are up to 40 m/s (77 kt), JMA up to 70 kt, PAGASA up to 36 m/s (70 kt), CWB up to 38 m/s (74 kt), HKO up to 70 kt.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Just think if that was centered over the loop current in the Gulf of Mexico.

I would say 90-95 knots. But that is just me.

[senorpepr]

True, but you missed the bit about KMA and CMA's (10 and 2 minute, iirc) 74 kt and 72 kt. Perhaps I could have worded it a little better as it wasn't meant solely as a compromise between the four reports. I apologise for that.

I didn't really miss the part about KMA and CMA either, but I figured to stick with comparing JMA and JTWC to make my point clearer. I do see your point. Nonetheless, I did forget to mention earlier that I do, however, enjoy reading that sort of forecast--good job.

[TampaFl]

Nice radar loop from Taipei:


http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V5e/observe/radar/radar_data.htm



After clicking on link, click on "loop for past six hours"


Robert

[Dave C]

The outflow has improved to the west and north so this may take a shot at more rapid development before land interaction with Taiwan. here's another radar from behind the storm.
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/radnowc/index.html?areaCode=219