WPAC: TD (ex-Typhoon Fung-wong) inland in China

[Chacor]

Latest reports:

11 m/s (21 kt) 999.8 hPa at Miyakojima

17 m/s (33 kt) at Shimojishima

17 m/s (33 kt) 994.6 hPa at Ishigakijima

15 m/s (31 kt) 993.9 hPa at Iriomotejima

15 m/s (31 kt) at Hateruma

17 m/s (33 kt) 994.3 hPa at Yonagunijima

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

75 kt from JMA at 13z.

[cycloneye]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 27 JUL 2008 Time : 123000 UTC
Lat : 22:41:59 N Lon : 122:58:49 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 927.5mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.0 6.0 6.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.5mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 25 km

Center Temp : -15.3C Cloud Region Temp : -70.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Chacor]

This is a personal forecast. Do not use for important decisions.

This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the Japan Met Agency or your local weather bureau.

BULLETIN
TYPHOON FUNG-WONG BULLETIN NR 7
1430 UTC SUN JULY 27 2008
OPERATIONAL TIME 1200 UTC

...FUNG-WONG CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES TAIWAN...

AT THIS BULLETIN...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS RECOMMENDED FOR
THE WESTERN RYUKYU ISLANDS OF ISHIGAKI...IRIOMOTE...HATERUMA...YONAGUNI...
SHIMOJI-SHIMA...AND MIYAKO-JIMA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW RECOMMENDED FOR THE NORTHERNMOST
PHILIPPINE ISLANDS IN THE BALINTANG ISLAND CHAIN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO RECOMMENDED FOR THE TAIWANESE COAST...
...IN THE NORTH FROM TAIPEI EAST TO KEELUNG...
...IN THE EAST FROM TAITUNG SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN TIP...
...IN THE WEST FROM CHANGHUA SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN TIP...

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS RECOMMENDED FOR THE NORTHERN TIP OF TAIWAN FROM
TAIPEI TO KEELUNG. THE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST FROM TAITUNG TO
THE SOUTHERN TIP IS NO LONGER NECESSARY.

A TYPHOON WARNING IS NOW RECOMMENDED FOR THE TAIWANESE COAST...
...IN THE EAST FROM KEELUNG SOUTH TO TAITUNG INCLUDING THE CITY OF HUALIEN...
...IN THE WEST FROM CHANGHUA NORTH TO TAIPEI...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW RECOMMENDED FOR THE CHINESE COAST FROM SHANTOU
IN GUANGDONG PROVINCE NORTH TO XIAMEN IN FUJIAN PROVINCE...AS WELL AS FROM
FUZHOU NORTH TO TONGSHAN IN FUJIAN PROVINCE.

A TYPHOON WARNING IS NOW RECOMMENDED FOR THE CHINESE COAST FROM XIAMEN TO
FUZHOU.

AT 8 PM CST...1200Z...THE CENTRE OF THE EYE OF TYPHOON FUNG-WONG WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.1 EAST...AS CORROBORATED BY SATELLITE
INFRARED IMAGERY BETWEEN 1130 AND 1230 UTC THIS EVENING. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT
195 KM...120 MI EAST OF TAITUNG TAIWAN...ABOUT 195 KM...120 MI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF ISHIGAKI...AND ABOUT 300 KM...190 MI SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI TAIWAN.

THIS IS AN INITIAL MOTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS OF NEAR 301/10...OR WEST-
NORTHWEST...AT AROUND 18 KM/H...11 MPH. A SLIGHT NORTHERLY TURN SHOULD OCCUR
PRIOR TO LANDFALL...WHICH WILL BRING THE CENTRE OF FUNG-WONG OVERLAND NEAR
HUALIEN CITY...BY 5-8 AM TOMORROW.

THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF THE TYPHOON IS 80 KT...WHICH IS HIGHER THAN
MOST CURRENT GUIDANCE. THE JMA AND KMA HAVE THE STORM AROUND 75 KT 10-MIN...
WHILE WHEN CONVERTED TO 10-MIN BOTH THE CMA AND JTWC ALSO HAVE THE STORM AROUND
THE SAME INTENSITY. HOWEVER...THE HKO HAS INITIALISED AT 80 KT...AND WITH DVORAK
NUMBERS NEAR 5.0...AS WELL AS A CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE OF 6.0...AND VERY COLD CLOUD
TOPS BELOW -80C...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 150 KM/H...95 MPH...10-MINUTE
WINDS.

SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS
AT YONAGUNI...ISHIGAKI...AND SHIMOJI.

FUNG-WONG IS RUNNING OUT OF TIME TO INTENSIFY...WHICH IS A GOOD THING. LANDFALL
SHOULD OCCUR IN NINE TO TWELVE HOURS...WITH AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SHOWING A SPREAD
BETWEEN 80 AND 90 KT AT LANDFALL. THE JTWC'S LANDFALL INTENSITY IS 100 KT...
WHICH IS 87 KT 10-MINUTE WINDS. AS I CURRENTLY HAVE THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT
80 KT...AND FUNG-WONG HAS BEEN ON A CONTINUED...BUT SLOW INTENSIFICATION
TREND...IT MAY WELL MAKE LANDFALL AT AROUND 85 KNOTS.

FURTHER IN THE FORECAST...THE MOUNTAINS OF TAIWAN ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE
STORM SOMEWHAT...BUT NOT BELOW TYPHOON INTENSITY BEFORE FUNG-WONG MAKES ITS
SECOND STRIKE...LIKELY IN ABOUR 24 HOURS...ON THE EASTERN COAST OF CHINA. BASED
ON THIS...A TYPHOON WARNING IS NOW NEEDED FOR THE CHINESE COAST.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE JMA AT 1200Z WAS 960 HPA.

REPEATING THE 1200Z POSITION...22.7 N 123.1 E...ABOUT 195 KM EAST OF TAITUNG
TAIWAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 KM/H. MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST
AROUND 18 KM/H.

NEXT BULLETIN BY 1200Z.

[cycloneye]

JTWC at 90kts:

WTPN31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 09W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 22.6N 123.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.6N 123.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 23.8N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 24.8N 120.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 26.0N 118.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 27.2N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 29.4N 116.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 22.9N 122.7E.
TYPHOON (TY) 09W (FUNG-WONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z.//

[Chacor]

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/RCTP.html

Obs from Taiwan Taoyuan International (formerly Chiang Kai-Shek Intl).

RCTP 271500Z 06030G40KT 5000 -SHRA FEW006 BKN015 BKN030 27/24 Q0995 RESHRA WS ALL RWY NOSIG RMK QFF 996.3HPA RA AMT 0.6MM

30 kt gusting 40 kt.

[P.K.]

Quick round up of all the other forecasts current at the moment:

RSMC Tokyo

FKPQ30 RJTD 271200
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20080727/1200Z
TCAC: TOKYO
TC: FUNG-WONG
NR: 14
PSN: N2240 E12305
MOV: NW 10KT
C: 960HPA
MAX WIND: 75KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 27/1800Z N2310 E12200
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 80KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 28/0000Z N2340 E12050
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 80KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 28/0600Z N2425 E12000
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 75KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 28/1200Z N2510 E11925
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 70KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20080727/1800Z =

-----

PAGASA

** WTPH20 RPMM 271200 ***
TTT TYPHOON WARNING 15
AT 1200 27 JULY TYPHOON (FUNG-WONG) {0808} WAS LOCATED BASED ON
SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO TWO POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO
THREE POINT ZERO EAST MOVING NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER
SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER
RADIUS SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SEVEN TWO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS
THREE SIX METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND
WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND
WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE THREE ZERO
ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 281200 TWO
FOUR POINT SIX NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT NINE EAST AT 291200 TWO SIX
POINT FIVE NORTH ONE ONE SIX POINT SIX EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON
AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER
MANILA=

-----

HKO

** WTPQ20 VHHH 271345 ***

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 271200 UTC, TYPHOON FUNG-WONG (0808) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 955 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 10 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (22.7 N) ONE TWO
THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (123.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 281200 UTC
TWO FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (24.8 N)
ONE ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (119.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 291200 UTC
TWO SEVEN POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (27.3 N)
ONE ONE SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (117.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 301200 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

----

KMA

** WTKO20 RKSL 271200 ***
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 10
NAME TY 0808 FUNG-WONG
ANALYSIS
POSITION 271200UTC 22.7N 123.1E
MOVEMENT NW 10KT
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 74KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 281200UTC 24.5N 120.6E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 70KT
48HR
POSITION 291200UTC 26.9N 117.6E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 49KT
72HR
POSITION 301200UTC 29.1N 116.3E WITHIN 0NM
PRES 998HPA
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

----

CMA

** WTPQ20 BABJ 271200 CCA ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
STY FUNG-WONG 0808 (0808) INITIAL TIME 271200 UTC
00HR 22.7N 123.1E 955HPA 45M/S
30KTS 480KM
50KTS 150KM
P12HR WNW 20KM/H
P+24HR 25.4N 120.2E 970HPA 35M/S
P+48HR 27.7N 118.0E 990HPA 23M/S
P+72HR 30.3N 116.3E 998HPA 18M/S=

----

CWB

1500UTC 27 July 2008
Center Location 22.7N 122.6E
Movement WNW 14km/hr
Minimum Pressure 948hPa
Maximum Wind Speed 43m/s
Gust 53m/s
Radius of 15m/s 220km
Radius of 25m/s 80km
Typhoon Forecast
12 hours valid at:
0300UTC 28 July 2008
Center Position 23.7N 120.9E
Vector to 12 HR Position
WNW 17km/hr
Radius of 70% probability circle 70km
24 hours valid at:
1500UTC 28 July 2008
Center Position 24.9N 119.9E
Vector to 24 HR Position
NW 14km/hr
Radius of 70% probability circle 130km
36 hours valid at:
0300UTC 29 July 2008
Center Position 25.8N 118.6E
Vector to 36 HR Position
NW 14km/hr
Radius of 70% probability circle 180km
48 hours valid at:
1500UTC 29 July 2008
Center Position 27.0N 117.5E
Vector to 48 HR Position
NW 14km/hr
Radius of 70% probability circle 230km
72 hours valid at:
1500UTC 30 July 2008
Center Position 29.5N 115.4E
Vector to 72 HR Position
NW 14km/hr
Radius of 70% probability circle 350km
96 hours valid at:
1500UTC 31 July 2008
Tropical Depression

[P.K.]

No longer forecast to exceed 75kts at landfall.

FKPQ30 RJTD 271800
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20080727/1800Z
TCAC: TOKYO
TC: FUNG-WONG
NR: 15
PSN: N2300 E12225
MOV: WNW 09KT
C: 960HPA
MAX WIND: 75KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 28/0000Z N2330 E12125
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 75KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 28/0600Z N2410 E12010
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 70KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 28/1200Z N2450 E11910
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 65KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 28/1800Z N2530 E11825
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 60KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20080728/0000Z =

[RattleMan]

JTWC 95kt, forecast to weaken from here out.

WTPN31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 09W (FUNG-WONG) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 23.0N 122.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.0N 122.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 24.1N 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 25.5N 119.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 26.7N 118.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 27.9N 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 29.9N 116.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 23.3N 121.8E.
TYPHOON (TY) 09W (FUNG-WONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 271800Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z, 280900Z, 281500Z
AND 282100Z.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

Makes landfall in Central Taiwan:

[RL3AO]

[Chacor]

TY 0808 (Fung-wong)
Issued at 23:40 UTC, 27 July 2008
<Analyses at 27/23 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N23°20'(23.3°)
E121°30'(121.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 440km(240NM)

This is as of 1 hr 7 mins ago, and was just off the coast.

[Chacor]

This is a personal forecast. Do not use for important decisions.

This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the Japan Met Agency or your local weather bureau.

BULLETIN
TYPHOON FUNG-WONG BULLETIN NR 8
0030 UTC MON JUL 28 2008
OPERATIONAL TIME 2300 UTC

...FUNG-WONG MAKES LANDFALL IN CHANGBIN TOWNSHIP IN TAITUNG COUNTY TAIWAN...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS RECOMMENDED FOR THE WESTERN RYUKYU ISLANDS
OF ISHIGAKI...IRIOMOTE...HATERUMA...YONAGUNI...SHIMOJI...AND MIYAKO-JIMA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS RECOMMENDED FOR THE NORTHERNMOST PHILIPPINE
ISLANDS IN THE BALINTANG ISLAND CHAIN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS RECOMMENDED FOR THE TAIWANESE COAST...
...IN THE NORTH FROM TAIPEI EAST TO KEELUNG...
...IN THE EAST FROM TAITUNG CITY SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN TIP...
...IN THE WEST FROM MAILIAO IN CHANGHUA COUNTY SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN TIP...

A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS RECOMMENDED FOR THE NORTHERN TIP OF TAIWAN FROM
TAIPEI TO KEELUNG. THE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST FROM TAITUNG TO
THE SOUTHERN TIP IS NO LONGER NECESSARY.

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS RECOMMENDED FOR THE TAIWANESE COAST...
...IN THE EAST FROM KEELUNG SOUTH TO TAITUNG INCLUDING THE CITY OF HUALIEN...
...IN THE WEST FROM MAILIAO IN CHANGHUA COUNTY NORTH TO TAIPEI...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS RECOMMENDED FOR THE CHINESE COAST FROM SHANTOU
IN GUANGDONG PROVINCE NORTH TO XIAMEN IN FUJIAN PROVINCE...AS WELL AS FROM
FUZHOU NORTH TO TONGSHAN IN FUJIAN PROVINCE.

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS RECOMMENDED FOR THE CHINESE COAST FROM XIAMEN TO
FUZHOU.

THE CENTRE OF TYPHOON FUNG-WONG IS HARD TO FIND ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AS LAND
INTERACTION HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL AND THE EYE HAS DISAPPEARED FROM INFRARED IMAGERY.
AT 7 AM TAIWAN TIME...2300Z...THE JMA ESTIMATED THE CENTRE OF TYPHOON FUNG-WONG
TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.5 EAST...OR JUST EAST OF CHANGBIN
TOWNSHIP IN TAITUNG COUNTY. ON THE CURRENT TRACK...IT WILL LIKELY HAVE MADE...OR
IS LIKELY MAKING...LANDFALL BY NOW.

THIS IS AN INITIAL MOTION OVER THE PAST 11 HOURS OF NEAR 292/08...OR WEST-
NORTHWEST...AT AROUND 15 KM/H...9 MPH. A FURTHER TURN TO THE NORTHWEST SHOULD
OCCUR LATER TODAY...WITH THE TYPHOON'S CENTRE MOVING OFF TAIWAN IN ABOUT 9 HOURS.
SECOND LANDFALL ON MAINLAND CHINA WILL LIKELY HAPPEN WITHIN 18 HOURS.

THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE AT LANDFALL IS 80 KT...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE SPREAD IN
INTENSITY ANALYSES BETWEEN THE JMA'S 75 KT...HKO'S 85 KT...AND TAIWAN CWB'S 77 KT.
FROM HERE ON OUT...WEAKENING OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
TAIWAN SHOULD COMMENCE...AND WITH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT RATHER LOW IN THE TAIWAN
STRAIT...NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED OVER WATER PRIOR TO A SECOND
LANDFALL.

SUSTAINED WINDS OF 21 METRES PER SECOND...40 KNOTS...HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER THE
PAST TWO HOURS AT YONAGUNI.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE JMA AT 2300Z WAS 960 HPA.

REPEATING THE 2300Z POSITION...23.3 N 121.5 E...JUST EAST OF CHANGBIN TOWNSHIP IN
TAITUNG COUNTY IN TAIWAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 KM/H. MOVEMENT...
WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 15 KM/H.

NEXT BULLETIN BY 1200Z.

[Ed Mahmoud]

JB predicted, due to frictional effects, Fung-Wong would not cut straight across Taiwan as shown in some predictions.


Satellite loop indicates so far, anyway, it is cutting across Taiwan on a pretty straight line.

last image on loop now over 2 hours old.

[HURAKAN]

Impressive.

[Chacor]

Interesting that the JMA had it still off the coast 30 mins before that image. There was a typhoon the caused the same issue some time last year (or in 2006), where it apparently had a centre lingering to the east of Taiwan while the convection raced west (or might've been on the west while the convection raced east, I can't remember), resulting in the JMA and JTWC having centres on either side of the island.

[CrazyC83]

Looks pretty good for overland. I'd say it was a Cat 3 at landfall with 100 kt winds.

[Chacor]

I don't think that impression in the middle is the real centre... is it? If it is, it's moving very, very quickly, and more west than WNW.

[Category 5]

JB predicted, due to frictional effects, Fung-Wong would not cut straight across Taiwan as shown in some predictions.


Satellite loop indicates so far, anyway, it is cutting across Taiwan on a pretty straight line.

last image on loop now over 2 hours old.

Perhaps JB should stick to atlantic doomsday scenarios.

Anyway, lost the eye but still good shape to it.