WPAC: Invest 98W - WSW of Palau

[RL3AO]

I know we normally don't create threads for these numerous WPac invests until the JTWC mentions it but theres not much out there.




Yep. Thats it. However the CIMSS maps shows some decent vorticity near 5N 133W.

[Ad Novoxium]

Why do I see a man wearing a Mickey Mouse helmet in this area?

[RattleMan]

Why do I see a man wearing a Mickey Mouse helmet in this area?

What?

[Cyclenall]

Now this is getting weird! What is that green outline suppose to be?

[Chacor]

TCHP is fairly high in the area. The Philippines has to watch this one.

[RL3AO]

Convection is increasing.

[RL3AO]

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.0N 133.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 100 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY-ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING
WEST OF AN EXPOSED, DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
292003Z QUIKSCAT (PARTIAL) IMAGE ALONG WITH SHIP REPORTS (3FIG5,
JPBN) WEST OF PALAU INDICATE A BROAD LLCC WITH 10-15 KNOT WINDS AND
SLP VALUES NEAR 1007 MB. ADDITIONALLY, OBSERVATIONS FROM PALAU
INDICATE 24-HOUR SLP FALLS OF 1 MB. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
MARGINAL WITH MODERATE, EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BUT GOOD
DIFFLUENCE. IN GENERAL, THE MODELS INDICATE A SLOWLY IMPROVING
ENVIRONMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS POOR.
------------

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 09N 134E ALMOST STATIONARY

[Chacor]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 7.0N 133.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.1N 133.1E, APPROXIMATELY
120 NM SOUTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
POORLY-ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING WEST OF AN EXPOSED, DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 292003Z QUIKSCAT (PARTIAL) IMAGE
ALONG WITH SHIP REPORTS NEAR PALAU CONFIRM THE BROAD LLCC WITH 10-15
KNOT WINDS AND SLP VALUES NEAR 1007 MB. ADDITIONALLY, OBSERVATIONS FROM
PALAU INDICATE 24-HOUR SLP FALLS OF 1 MB. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
MARGINAL WITH MODERATE, EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BUT GOOD DIFFLUENCE.
IN GENERAL, THE MODELS INDICATE A SLOWLY IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT AS THE
DISTURBANCE TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.

[Chacor]

06z:
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 09N 131E WNW SLOWLY.

[Chacor]

18z:
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 10N 131E WNW SLOWLY.

[RL3AO]

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.1N 133.1E
APPROXIMATELY 120 NM SOUTHWEST OF PALAU, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO
LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[Sanibel]

Good. It makes me feel better knowing I'm not the only one who sees those things in satellite shots. lol