Ex Invest 99L in Western Atlantic

[HurricaneBelle]

getting its act together...

You go, ex-99L!

[Sanibel]

Yeah these things can become favorable when they turn back into the flow in which they rode over and get assistance from a frontal boundary.

[HURAKAN]

The future is not to shear about!!

[HURAKAN]

[cpdaman]

somethings happen here.........what it is.........ain't exactly clear.......

looks like we had a LLC with convection for a while (noaa station 41047 winds turned SW to N) seemed like it was about 60 miles south of distrubance, but now the convection seems to be building and further SE .

[canetracker]

Per the loop above and steering currents, it looks like its going to get caught up in the flow.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm1&zoom=&time

[cpdaman]

appears to be looking poor again

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

appears to be looking poor again

Don't get your hopes very high when this kind of situation occurs. It's being baroclinicly enhanced, meaning, this not because it's becoming tropically more organized but because the same mechanisms producing the convection along the front are helping the trough or disturbance produce convection. If this were an organized tropical cyclone you would expect intensification first (e.g. Noel) and then it would be absorbed by the cold front and dissipate.

[Honeyko]

If this were an organized tropical cyclone you would expect intensification first (e.g. Noel) and then it would be absorbed by the cold front and dissipate.

I've seen a lot of weaker systems like this not be absorbed by the cold-front, but instead race along the mean steering flow (the low-level WAA jet), and croak in the North Atlantic after overrunning (along with the low-level jet) a surface warm-frontal boundary.

==//==

honeyko what are your latest thoughts now that we are once again free at last to speaketh about this abomination.

Fish-storm. It's really racing off to the northeast now, and with that front barreling off-shore, I see little chance of this having a prayer of doubling back.

If I am lucky (but not Bermuda, which it will pass very close by if NE path doesn't waver), it'll pull down TD or TS before 2pm Sat or whatever (I'll have to go back and check), earning me a steak-dinner. Mmmm....steak.

==//==

Colorado State has devoted a floater to it: http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at1_0.html

TWC mentioned it at 11:50 CST.

==//==

0805 0845Z: 22.5N/66W. W/WNW heading continues.
0805 1705Z: 23N/68W...WNW
0806 0645Z: 23N/72W. due W heading.
0806 1645Z: 24.5N/74W...movement NW.
0806 2045Z: 24.75N/74.75W...movement WNW
0807 0415Z: 25/75W...drifting WNW.
0807 0815Z: 25.25N/76.75W...movement W.
0807 1515Z: 25.5N/77W...almost stationary.
0807 1815Z: 25.5N/77W...stationary.
0808 1000Z: 26N/76W...moving NE.
0808 1815Z: 27.5N/73W...moving NE.
0808 2245Z: 28N/72W...moving NE.

0809 0345Z: 29.5/70.5...moving NE fast.

[HURAKAN]

I don't see anything at the surface at the moment.

[cpdaman]

seems last nite there was a bit of a surface reflection

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBds19.png

however not so much this morning

[Sanibel]

The Atlantic must not be favorable right now because almost always something like this over those waters spins.

[Mecklenburg]

The Atlantic must not be favorable right now because almost always something like this over those waters spins.

yeah, i'm beginning to be disappointed with this season...

[Scorpion]

The Atlantic must not be favorable right now because almost always something like this over those waters spins.

yeah, i'm beginning to be disappointed with this season...

How on Earth can you be disappointed when we have already had 5 named storms and a major long tracker in July? It's only August 9...

[Category 5]

The Atlantic must not be favorable right now because almost always something like this over those waters spins.

yeah, i'm beginning to be disappointed with this season...

If you're disapointed with this I can only give you two suggestions

1. Try the WPAC
2. Try another hobby

[Honeyko]

0805 0845Z: 22.5N/66W. W/WNW heading continues.
0805 1705Z: 23N/68W...WNW
0806 0645Z: 23N/72W. due W heading.
0806 1645Z: 24.5N/74W...movement NW.
0806 2045Z: 24.75N/74.75W...movement WNW
0807 0415Z: 25/75W...drifting WNW.
0807 0815Z: 25.25N/76.75W...movement W.
0807 1515Z: 25.5N/77W...almost stationary.
0807 1815Z: 25.5N/77W...stationary.
0808 1000Z: 26N/76W...moving NE.
0808 1815Z: 27.5N/73W...moving NE.
0808 2245Z: 28N/72W...moving NE.
0809 0345Z: 29.5/70.5...moving NE fast.
0809 1400Z: 33N/69W...moving NE; merging with frontal boundary. Probable last fix.

==//==

"A Piece of Steak" -- Jack London, 1909.

[cycloneye]

A Piece of Steak" -- Jack London, 1909.

I haved not replied to this thread to let it go down the pages,but I have to ask,What does this has to do with the tropics?

[southerngale]

The Atlantic must not be favorable right now because almost always something like this over those waters spins.

yeah, i'm beginning to be disappointed with this season...

You've got to be kidding me. Do you pay attention to the replies you get? Here's just one by me, a few days ago. There's a gazillion more by other members. It might benefit you to not just post, but also read.

i don't think so, it will just go poof just like the others... perhaps we will not have another named storm till september

"go poof just like the others"

Why do you say things like this? We've already had FIVE named storms and it's ONLY August 6th. The average date to get the fifth named storm is September 5th. (based on 1944-2005)

Do some research on past seasons. 2008 has been a very busy season so far.

[Honeyko]

The Atlantic must not be favorable right now because almost always something like this over those waters spins.

The broad Atlantic is generally capped pretty tight in August. When the sun begins swinging back toward the equator heading into the equinox, the atmospheric heat bulge will follow it, loosening things up a bit as lapse rates steepen.

yeah, i'm beginning to be disappointed with this season...

How on Earth can you be disappointed when we have already had 5 named storms and a major long tracker in July? It's only August 9...

Kids these days, so impatient. They should have been there in 1983, when the first storm was late in coming, brought a bit of excitement and a promise of more to come....but then you'd have been better off if you just crawled up in a den with a moose haunch and hibernated all the way to 1985.



*edited by sg to fix the quotes - it had the members saying the wrong things