EPAC: Tropical Storm Hernan

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EPAC: Tropical Storm Hernan

#1 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 01, 2008 9:13 am

BEGIN
NHC
invest_ep922008.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200808011319
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 92, 2008, DB, O, 2008080112, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP922008
EP, 92, 2008073118, , BEST, 0, 84N, 1050W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 92, 2008080100, , BEST, 0, 87N, 1050W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 92, 2008080106, , BEST, 0, 90N, 1050W, 20, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 92, 2008080112, , BEST, 0, 92N, 1050W, 20, 1006, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 175, 45, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
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#2 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 01, 2008 9:13 am

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#3 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 01, 2008 9:15 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI AUG 1 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ROUGHLY 600 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IF IT BECOMES SEPARATED FROM THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB
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#4 Postby KWT » Fri Aug 01, 2008 9:16 am

Looks pretty interesting right now as it happens though lets see what it does in the next 12-24hrs, may well be on its way to being a TD though looking at it right now though I'm not sure what the set-up is like with this system.
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Re: EPAC: Invest 92E

#5 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 01, 2008 9:16 am

WHXX01 KMIA 011320
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1320 UTC FRI AUG 1 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP922008) 20080801 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080801 1200 080802 0000 080802 1200 080803 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.2N 105.0W 9.8N 105.8W 10.3N 106.4W 10.8N 106.9W
BAMD 9.2N 105.0W 9.9N 105.9W 10.6N 106.9W 11.5N 107.9W
BAMM 9.2N 105.0W 9.9N 105.8W 10.6N 106.6W 11.3N 107.5W
LBAR 9.2N 105.0W 9.9N 105.6W 10.8N 106.6W 11.9N 107.9W
SHIP 20KTS 26KTS 32KTS 41KTS
DSHP 20KTS 26KTS 32KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080803 1200 080804 1200 080805 1200 080806 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.2N 107.7W 12.4N 110.1W 13.3N 113.3W 14.2N 116.9W
BAMD 12.4N 109.0W 14.2N 112.2W 15.9N 116.0W 17.3N 120.0W
BAMM 12.0N 108.6W 13.4N 111.7W 14.7N 115.6W 15.7N 120.1W
LBAR 13.1N 109.5W 15.0N 113.5W 16.1N 117.8W 16.6N 122.4W
SHIP 48KTS 53KTS 55KTS 57KTS
DSHP 48KTS 53KTS 55KTS 57KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.2N LONCUR = 105.0W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 8.7N LONM12 = 105.0W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 7.9N LONM24 = 105.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

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#6 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 01, 2008 2:05 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI AUG 1 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS NEARLY
STATIONARY SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB
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#7 Postby Chacor » Fri Aug 01, 2008 7:02 pm

Keeping in line with the rule on bulletins, here's the latest FULL TWO, with the part in question bolded.

ABPZ20 KNHC 012340
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI AUG 1 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS NEARLY
STATIONARY SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.


SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 160 MILES WEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO REMAINS DISORGANIZED.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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#8 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 01, 2008 11:31 pm

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Not very hot!
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#9 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Aug 02, 2008 5:06 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT FRI AUG 1 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 600
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO REMAINS DISORGANIZED.
DEVELOPMENT IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 170
MILES WEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO REMAIN DISORGANIZED. DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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#10 Postby Chacor » Sat Aug 02, 2008 8:07 am

Not bad.

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#11 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Aug 02, 2008 8:10 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT AUG 2 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

:rarrow: A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 600
MILES SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO REMAINS DISORGANIZED.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED NORTHWESTWARD AND IS NOW LOCATED
ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY TO
OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Re: EPAC: Invest 92E

#12 Postby RL3AO » Sat Aug 02, 2008 12:51 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT AUG 2 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 600
MILES SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO REMAINS DISORGANIZED.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.


THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW LOCATED ABOUT 160 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE REACHING COOLER WATERS IN A
DAY OR TWO. REGARDLESS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM COULD
BRING SHOWERS AND SQUALLS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
LATER TODAY AND SUNDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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#13 Postby Chacor » Sat Aug 02, 2008 8:06 pm

ABPZ20 KNHC 022329
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT AUG 2 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED
ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAVE DIMINISHED.


THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO HAS
BECOME MUCH LESS ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH AND NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED BEFORE IT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...ISOLATED AREAS OF
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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#14 Postby RL3AO » Sun Aug 03, 2008 12:58 am

Not mentioned in 6z TWO.
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#15 Postby Chacor » Sun Aug 03, 2008 11:31 am

Been moving eastwards in the ITCZ?

EP, 92, 2008073118, , BEST, 0, 84N, 1050W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 92, 2008080100, , BEST, 0, 87N, 1050W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 92, 2008080106, , BEST, 0, 90N, 1050W, 20, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 92, 2008080112, , BEST, 0, 92N, 1050W, 20, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 175, 45, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 92, 2008080200, , BEST, 0, 95N, 1049W, 20, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 92, 2008080206, , BEST, 0, 98N, 1048W, 20, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 92, 2008080212, , BEST, 0, 98N, 1046W, 20, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 175, 45, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 92, 2008080218, , BEST, 0, 98N, 1045W, 20, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 175, 45, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 92, 2008080300, , BEST, 0, 100N, 1042W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 175, 45, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
EP, 92, 2008080306, , BEST, 0, 104N, 1026W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 92, 2008080312, , BEST, 0, 108N, 1008W, 20, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 175, 45, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
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#16 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Aug 03, 2008 8:40 pm

EP, 92, 2008080400, , BEST, 0, 90N, 980W, 20, 1008,

The invest continues alive but the NHC doesn't mention it, weird!
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#17 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Aug 04, 2008 5:32 am

Adios:

BEGIN
NHC
invest_DEACTIVATE_ep922008.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200808040654
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 92, 2008, DB, O, 2008080112, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP922008
EP, 92, 2008073118, , BEST, 0, 84N, 1050W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 92, 2008080100, , BEST, 0, 87N, 1050W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 92, 2008080106, , BEST, 0, 90N, 1050W, 20, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 92, 2008080112, , BEST, 0, 92N, 1050W, 20, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 175, 45, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 92, 2008080200, , BEST, 0, 95N, 1049W, 20, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 92, 2008080206, , BEST, 0, 98N, 1048W, 20, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 92, 2008080212, , BEST, 0, 98N, 1046W, 20, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 175, 45, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 92, 2008080218, , BEST, 0, 98N, 1045W, 20, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 175, 45, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 92, 2008080300, , BEST, 0, 100N, 1042W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 175, 45, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
EP, 92, 2008080306, , BEST, 0, 104N, 1026W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 92, 2008080312, , BEST, 0, 108N, 1008W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 175, 45, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
EP, 92, 2008080318, , BEST, 0, 106N, 1010W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 175, 45, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
EP, 92, 2008080400, , BEST, 0, 90N, 980W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
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Re: EPAC: Invest 92E

#18 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 05, 2008 8:24 am

HURAKAN,92E is back!

EP, 92, 2008080512, , BEST, 0, 108N, 1063W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 45, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST,

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/
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#19 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Aug 05, 2008 11:05 am

Image
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#20 Postby RL3AO » Tue Aug 05, 2008 1:17 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1100 AM PDT TUE AUG 5 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS CENTERED ABOUT 620 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. THE LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PETERSEN
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