Ex Invest 90L

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think there also should be a thread for 99L questions to the pro's. It is the one system that has a "LLC".

[Honeyko]

Waves can't outrun SAL...

LOWS certainly can. I remember lots of storms roaring across the Atlantic at up to and beyond 20kts/hr, sporting rat-tails that cover nearly half the ocean behind them.

Given 90L's already existent mid-level circulation, I expect it to do much the same thing.

Down the road, all that extra dust will supercharge the storm with small-diameter condensation-nuclei perfect for high-altitude ice-crystal formation.

[Ed Mahmoud]

My gut, 91L may hit closer to home for Texans, but in next week, for Caribbean and maybe Florida or border states, 90L will be a much bigger story.

[caribepr]

My gut, 91L may hit closer to home for Texans, but in next week, for Caribbean and maybe Florida or border states, 90L will be a much bigger story.

Well, this will encourage the guy I hired getting one more sand screw down on the houseboat tomorrow (too stormy today).

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 022352
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS IS LOCATED IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE
PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE AREA...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WILL INVESTIGATE THE AREA ON SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 1025 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS HAVE
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THE LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARDS THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 TO
20 MPH.

A SMALL AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20
MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 022359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT AUG 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.



...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W/30W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A
1009 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N WITH
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 30W-33W. THIS
WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE UNDER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A CENTRAL
ATLC UPPER RIDGE AND ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

[chadtm80]

I think there also should be a thread for 99L questions to the pro's. It is the one system that has a "LLC".

Senor usualy starts them I think?

[cycloneye]

If it stays as it is now,it will continue to move west and be a threat to the Lesser Antilles islands if it develops in a few days.The good news is that some of the islands in the Eastern Caribbean are experiencing drought conditions believe it or not and if this stays as it is now,it will bring needed rain.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I think there also should be a thread for 99L questions to the pro's. It is the one system that has a "LLC".

Senor usualy starts them I think?

Give me one more season to prove I don't get too political, too often, on anthropogenic global warming threads, (Marshall had to give me a smackdown for my own good) and while it is obvious so far this season that Miamiwxsensis (sp?) is still better than me, for a non professional, predicting tropical systems, I think, not to toot my horn too hard, I can surpress my natural tendency toward EWG type wishcasting, and be better than the average amateur.


I will note, even beating Joe Bastardi (to whose cheapest PPV column I subscribe) on occasion, I pretty accurately picked out tornado outbreaks back in February and March off GFS and Euro 6 and 7 day model forecasts.


I did my military service before my BS in petroleum engineering, so I was an enlisted man, but I did sail in periphery of Typhoon Skip in South China Sea mid 1980s, and I flew in an American Eagle prop job through Hurricane Claudette, with remarkably little turbulence, going to my Grandmother's funeral. She died just a few months shy of her 100th birthday party, but I bet she knows I'm grateful for chance to fly through outer rainbands of a hurricane. Light rain, breezy, when we departed IAH.

Totally clear sky, about halfway between IAH and DFW, where I connected to BOS.

[cycloneye]

The 00:00 UTC ATCF best track for 90L:


AL, 90, 2008080300, , BEST, 0, 115N, 320W, 25, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

[cycloneye]

02/2345 UTC 11.6N 32.1W T1.0/1.0 90L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[Gustywind]

02/2345 UTC 11.6N 32.1W T1.0/1.0 90L -- Atlantic Ocean
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html
No more changes...heading west/ winds at the same intensity

[Chacor]

Movement over past 12 hours based on ATCF positions:
11.5N 27.7W to 11.5N 32.0W

270°, 39 km/h or 24.4 mph.

[Mecklenburg]

this one is just about poof, just like the others

[southerngale]

This is the Active Storms forum... let's try to stay on topic and post the other chit-chat elsewhere. Thanks.

[HURAKAN]

this one is just about poof, just like the others

Convection should increase in the morning during DMAX.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

this one is just about poof, just like the others

I have to agree. The Sal has kicked its top off,,,now it will be a lot like 99L for the next few days, but at a lower lat and has a better chance of becoming something down the road that could threaten land.

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Yeah the next 48hrs it will have to deal with SAL but eventually that will mix out to the extent where it will be become a lesser factor, esp given how far south this system is and heading towards warmer waters.