Near Baja California: 93E INVEST

[Chacor]

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=102221 <--- original thread.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT AUG 2 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 600
MILES SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO REMAINS DISORGANIZED.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED NORTHWESTWARD AND IS NOW LOCATED
ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY TO
OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

[Ed Mahmoud]

Beginning of the busy season for NHC!

[HURAKAN]

Watch out California, 93E means business!!!

[physicx07]

LOL! Give us some Linda scare (of course impossible this year). Remember that in 1997?

Watch out California, 93E means business!!!

[Ed Mahmoud]

Watch out California, 93E means business!!!

That would be spookier in an El Niño season with warmer SSTs offshore California.

[HURAKAN]

You're for a cold reception as you move closer to California!!!

Code: Select all

                    *   EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST   *
                    *        GOES INPUT INCLUDED                *
                    *      INVEST  EP932008  08/02/08  12 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    20    23    26    29    31    34    32    26    18   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
V (KT) LAND       20    23    26    29    31    34    32    26    18   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS
V (KT) LGE mod    20    20    20    20    20    20    18    15   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS   DIS

SHEAR (KTS)       12    12    16    15    16    12    15    16    13    18    20    24    31
SHEAR DIR         63    66    61    56    63    94    70    91   107   132   147   167   176
SST (C)         28.5  28.2  27.9  27.4  26.7  24.2  22.1  21.2  20.2  19.5  19.0  18.3  17.6
POT. INT. (KT)   149   146   143   138   131   105    83    73    62    59    59    60    60
200 MB T (C)   -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -54.3 -54.5 -54.8 -54.5 -54.6
TH_E DEV (C)       8     8     9     6     5     3     0     0     0     0     0     3     0
700-500 MB RH     72    70    67    67    67    60    57    53    47    40    37    34    32
GFS VTEX (KT)      4     4     3     3     2     2  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR    11    10    15    23     2    24     7    -1    -5     4    16    43    48
200 MB DIV         9     6    -1    -1   -16    10    -5    15     7     6     7    10    28
LAND (KM)        264   270   178   127   156   161   240   275   379   392   377   272    95
LAT (DEG N)     20.0  20.7  21.3  22.0  22.6  24.1  25.5  26.9  28.1  29.2  30.3  31.8  33.4
LONG(DEG W)    108.2 109.0 109.8 110.7 111.6 113.7 115.8 117.6 119.1 119.9 120.3 120.0 119.6
STM SPEED (KT)     9    10    10    11    12    12    11    10     8     6     7     8     8

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/  7      CX,CY:  -2/  6
  T-12 MAX WIND:  20            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  685  (MEAN=582)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD:  13.7 (MEAN=18.0)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  86.0 (MEAN=65.7)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   1.   2.   3.   6.   7.   6.   3.   0.  -2.  -4.  -7.
  VERTICAL SHEAR         1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   5.   4.   1.  -2.  -5.  -9. -13.
  PERSISTENCE            0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   4.   6.   9.  11.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -4.  -6.  -8.  -9. -10. -12. -12.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   0.   0.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -2.  -3.  -2.  -2.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   3.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SUB-TOTAL CHANGE       1.   2.   4.   4.   6.   4.   0.  -6. -12. -18. -22. -27.

  SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
  MEAN ADJUSTMENT        0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GOES IR STD DEV        1.   3.   5.   6.   8.   8.   7.   5.   4.   3.   4.   4.
  GOES IR PIXEL COUNT    0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL ADJUSTMENT       2.   4.   5.   6.   8.   8.   6.   4.   3.   3.   3.   3.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE (KT)      3.   6.   9.  11.  14.  12.   6.  -2.  -9. -15. -18. -23.

** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP932008     INVEST 08/02/08  12 UTC **
           ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-20.0 to  45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.4
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  14.2 Range: 18.5 to   1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.3
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  -0.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.0
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 121.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  1.3
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  75.2 Range: 63.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.3
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  79.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.2
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :   9.4 Range: 35.4 to   2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  1.2
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    33% is   2.6 times the sample mean(12.5%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    20% is   2.4 times the sample mean( 8.3%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    15% is   2.6 times the sample mean( 5.8%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932008     INVEST 08/02/08  12 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY             

[RL3AO]

Maybe it can go subtropical and hold on!

[HURAKAN]

[stevetampa33614]

no way Cali get hits directly. Probably a bunch of rain in there future

[Chacor]

12z track models (including climatology/persistence CLP5 and extrapolated movement XTRP):

[kurtpage]

Mother natures fire department....maybe it can help completely put out the fires!

[KWT]

It looks pretty good right now but its only got about 36hrs of warmer waters before it hits those colder waters and development will probably slow then stop.

[RL3AO]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT AUG 2 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 600
MILES SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO REMAINS DISORGANIZED.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW LOCATED ABOUT 160 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE REACHING COOLER WATERS IN A
DAY OR TWO. REGARDLESS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM COULD
BRING SHOWERS AND SQUALLS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
LATER TODAY AND SUNDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[HURAKAN]

LLC is exposed to the NNE

[cycloneye]

930
ABPZ20 KNHC 022329
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT AUG 2 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED
ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAVE DIMINISHED.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO HAS
BECOME MUCH LESS ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH AND NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED BEFORE IT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...ISOLATED AREAS OF
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Ed Mahmoud]

Mother natures fire department....maybe it can help completely put out the fires!

If only it were September, when it might get a little baroclinic juice as it passed beyond 26º SST isotherm.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If 91L had a LLC like this the nhc would jump through rings to put out a special discussion upgrading it.

[HURAKAN]

Racing away from the convection.

[physicx07]

Yeah, the LBAR is mostly crap in my opinion b/c it's not so much based on the real synoptic situation.

12z track models (including climatology/persistence CLP5 and extrapolated movement XTRP):