TS Edouard obs/preparations,web cams -SE Texas / SW LA

[Ed Mahmoud]

This in a tad disquieting, copied from a reply on ask the met thread and my response....

I have no clue where Bastardi got his upper intensity limit of 1000mb from.

With a whole 4KT of shear in the GOM according to SHIPS, it could be quite a bit more intense

How strong of a storm might this invest become?

I don't think our pro-mets want to offer a specific forecast prior to an actual LLC...

[Sambucol]

I don't think our pro-mets want to offer a specific forecast prior to an actual LLC...

Ok. There is a pro met from one of the local Houston TV affiliates who posted on their board for people to make sure their hurricane supplies are in order Sunday because of a possible rapid development of this system Monday and heading toward Texas Tuesday. He did reiterate this wasn't a forecast but a "helpful hint". Said Monday maybe hectic.

[CrazyC83]

I don't think our pro-mets want to offer a specific forecast prior to an actual LLC...

Ok. There is a pro met from one of the local Houston TV affiliates who posted on their board for people to make sure their hurricane supplies are in order Sunday because of a possible rapid development of this system Monday and heading toward Texas Tuesday. He did reiterate this wasn't a forecast but a "helpful hint". Said Monday maybe hectic.

Given the potential and past history (Humberto, anyone), I'd take his advice if I lived anywhere between Grand Isle and Port Lavaca - especially on the north Texas coast.

[Sambucol]

Given the potential and past history (Humberto, anyone), I'd take his advice if I lived anywhere between Grand Isle and Port Lavaca - especially on the north Texas coast.

We are. We're on the upper Texas coast. If this develops, it reminds me of how quickly Hurricane Alicia developed in 1983. We won't take any chances.

[Steve]

>>I may actually feel compelled to top off gas tanks in car and check bottled water, canned food and battery supplies.

Would be nice except my Tacoma is at the dealership. Apparently the "valve cover gaskets" don't go out on Tacomas and there isn't a single one to be had in the entire State of Louisiana - until Tuesday. So I had to borrow my old 1994 Honda Accord from my ex-wife. Rollin'.

Steve

[Houstonia]

As I remember it, we only had about 24 hours notice that Alicia was headed straight for us. It was originally forecast to go in south of us.

My parents were out of power for two disgustingly hot and humid weeks after Alicia. It was awful. I moved into my sister's apartment with blessed window units.

This in a tad disquieting, copied from a reply on ask the met thread and my response....

Living almost 60 miles inland, I'm not worried about a Cat 1 or below, beyond that, loss of power becomes a concern, and with rule of thumb of add a Saffir-Simpson category to official NHC forecast as a course of least regret, a Cat 1 forecast means worry of loss of power, as my wife's family in 1983 lost power for almost a week after Alicia.


I'll go do basic preps tomorrow, but short of window boarding. We have a birthday party tomorrow at a inflatable slide/rock wall climbing/pizza place, my son turns 7 on Tuesday.

[Jagno]

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
459 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2008

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ182-031100-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-NEWTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...NEWTON
459 AM CDT SUN AUG 3 2008

.NOW...STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARCING FROM NEAR JASPER
TEXAS TO THE LAKE CHARLES AREA TO MARSH ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK SOUTHWEST AT 35 MPH ACROSS THE REGION. 30 TO 40 MPH WIND
GUSTS WILL BE COMMON WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL AS BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAINS.

[Bluefrog]

POJO .... I'm in Pascagoula ..... do you ever eat at the Biloxi Schooner???

Hope nothing develops and you don't have to go to "work"

[T-man]

Thanks to a strong offshore flow, bayou is low here, and tide still on the move out. Coastal flood watch is up for the southeast coastline of La, east of Grand Isle, LA. Late tonight and Monday strong onshore flow will cause some low lying areas to flood. I think that MCS that sped thru here this morning helped push out some water, that's what I meant by the offshore flow.

[crownweather]

Found this link that you may be interested in if you like listening to fire and police calls:

http://www.scannerfeeds.us/

Galveston/Houston Scanner Feed: http://tx.scanamerica.us/index.php?county=Galveston

[Houstonia]

Statement as of 1:10 PM CDT on August 03, 2008

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of

northern and western Louisiana
central and southwest Mississippi
east central and southeast Texas
coastal waters

Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 110 PM until 800
PM CDT.

Hail to 1.5 inches in diameter... thunderstorm wind gusts to 70
mph... and dangerous lightning are possible in these areas.

The Severe Thunderstorm Watch area is approximately along and 95
statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north
northwest of Jackson Mississippi to 10 miles south southwest of
Houston Texas. For a complete depiction of the watch see the
associated watch outline update (wous64 kwns wou1).

Remember... a Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally
do produce tornadoes.

Discussion... thunderstorms have developed from central MS swwd into
east central TX within low level convergence zone... left exit region
of upper level jet... and just north of an MCV moving wwd along the
extreme sern TX coast. Soundings and water vapor imagery indicate
dry air aloft which is enhancing low-mid level lapse rates... and
ample low level moisture is contributing to moderate instability
with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 j/kg. Area VAD and wind profiler data show
30 kt nely winds above 3-4 km which will promote swwd storm
propagation. New cells are likely to develop preferentially along
the wrn outflows of existing storms... with increasing likelihood of
wet microbursts as low level heating steepens lapse rates below 1
km. In addition... other storms are expected to develop over nrn MS
this afternoon and move toward the nrn parts of the ww.

Aviation... a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm
motion vector 04025.


... Weiss

[CrazyC83]

Not often you see a Severe Thunderstorm Watch from a tropical feature.

[RL3AO]

Not often you see a Severe Thunderstorm Watch from a tropical feature.

Its not for the tropical feature.

[Houstonia]

Not often you see a Severe Thunderstorm Watch from a tropical feature.

Its not for the tropical feature.

I stand corrected!!

*looks at herself*

I SIT corrected.

I thought it was outflow. :-p

[jordanmills]

Not often you see a Severe Thunderstorm Watch from a tropical feature.

Its not for the tropical feature.

I stand corrected!!

*looks at herself*

I SIT corrected.

I thought it was outflow. :-p

Nooope. Just popped up out of nowhere. Surprised me, I wasn't expecting big weather till 91L came in.

[pojo]

POJO .... I'm in Pascagoula ..... do you ever eat at the Biloxi Schooner???

Hope nothing develops and you don't have to go to "work"

to answer both of your questions.... yes to the schooner & I am working this storm.

[Tireman4]

Are my eyes decieving me, or have the NWS folks not updated the map to show the Tropical Storm Watch areas?

[jordanmills]

This unrelated rain in Houston may make things interesting when the TS comes through.

[Over my head]

just to add an observation... Lots of rolling loud thunder here in Beaumont right now.
I got an email from storm 2K to watch this TD5 which I really appreciate. Thank you.

[Sean in New Orleans]

I hope we get some good rain tomorrow out of this. It is SO hot.