WPac: TD KAMMURI (10W) - Over SE China

[RL3AO]

Tropics are really slow today...






LOW PRESSURE AREA 1004 HPA NEAR 17N 123E NW SLOWLY.

[Typhoon Hunter]

JTWC have bypassed POOR and gone straight with FAIR chance of TC development over the next 24 hours.

ABPW10 PGTW 022330
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/022330Z-030600ZAUG2008//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.0N 123.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 185 NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 022054Z SSMI 37 GHZ IMAGE INDICATED AN
IMPROVED LLCC WITH FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT IN ADDITION TO THE NORTHERN BAND. SYNOPTIC
OBSERVATIONS FROM NORTHERN LUZON (982330) INDICATE SLP NEAR 1004 MB
WITH 24-HOUR PRESSURE FALLS OF 2 MB. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER
TAIWAN AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE DISTURBANCE IS SITUATED IN
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE ONLY
LIMITING FACTOR AT THIS TIME IS LAND INTERACTION, HOWEVER THE LLCC
IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD SKIRTING THE COAST OF NORTHEAST LUZON.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.

[RL3AO]

WWJP25 RJTD 030000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 030000.
WARNING VALID 040000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 990 HPA
AT 53N 140E SIBERIA MOVING NORTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 500 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
200 MILES ELSEWHERE.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW
SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 36N 141E 42N 141E
47N 152E 55N 162E 60N 163E 60N 180E 40N 180E 39N 160E 36N 141E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 39N 133E EAST 15 KT.
LOW 1008 HPA AT 29N 148E ALMOST STATIONARY.
LOW 1014 HPA AT 52N 171E NORTH SLOWLY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1004 HPA NEAR 17N 115E ENE SLOWLY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1004 HPA NEAR 18N 122E NNW SLOWLY.
HIGH 1028 HPA AT 40N 176W ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 33N 120E TO 34N 125E 37N 130E 39N 133E 41N 140E
42N 145E 40N 148E.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/ww/wwjp25.rjtd..txt



Knowing PAGASA, they will probably name it at anytime.

[Chacor]

Very impressive convective tops.

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Very deep convection there under those warm SST's. I should think this has a very reasonable shot at developing into a system.

[Chacor]

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1002 HPA NEAR 17N 116E ENE SLOWLY.

[RL3AO]

Severe Weather Bulletin Number ONE
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Depression "JULIAN"
Issued at 11:00 p.m., Sunday, 03 August 2008 The active low pressure area near Cagayan has developed into a tropical depression named "JULIAN".
Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 p.m.) 140 kms North Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan
Coordinates: 19.6°N, 122.5°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near the center
Movement: Northwest slowly
Forecast Positions/Outlook: Monday evening:
140 kms North of Aparri, Cagayan
Tuesday evening:
160 kms North Northwest of Aparri, Cagayan
Wednesday evening:
190 kms North Northwest of Aparri, Cagayan

[RattleMan]

Updates:

- PAGASA: Julian #2
- JTWC: TCFA
- NRL: 10W


------------------------------
Severe Weather Bulletin Number TWO
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Depression "JULIAN"
Issued at 5:00 a.m., Monday, 04 August 2008 Tropical Depression "JULIAN" has maintained its strength for the past six hours.
Location of Center:
(as of 4:00 a.m.) 130 kms North Northwest of Aparri, Cagayan or
110 kms South Southwest of Basco, Batanes
Coordinates: 19.5°N, 121.3°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near the center
Movement: West at 17 kph
Forecast Positions/Outlook: Tuesday morning:
320 kms West Northwest of Laoag City
Wednesday morning:
680 kms West Northwest of Laoag City


Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
PSWS # Luzon Visayas Mindanao
Signal No. 1
(30-60 kph winds) Batanes Group of Is.
Babuyan Group of Is.
Calayan Group of Is.
Northern Cagayan
Apayao
Ilocos Norte
Ilocos Sur
Abra
La Union None None


Tropical Depression "JULIAN" is expected to continue to enhance the southwest monsoon and bring rains over Luzon especially in the western sections.

Residents in low lying areas and near mountain slopes are advised to take all the necessary precautions against possible flashfloods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 a.m. today.
------------------------------------
WTPN21 PGTW 031930
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.3N 122.2E TO 20.6N 117.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 031830Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.7N 121.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.2N
123.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 121.7E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
NORTH OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A CONSOLIDAING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
A CDO-LIKE CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. A
031542Z TRMM 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. SYNOPTIC OBSERV-
ATIONS FROM NORTHERN LUZON SHOW SLP NEAR 1002 MB WITH 2 TO 3 MB
24-HOUR PRESSURE FALLS INDICATIVE OF THE STRENGTHENING SYSTEM.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ENHANCED BY UPPER-LEVEL LOWS NEAR TAIWAN AND NEAR 23N 135E PLUS
EXCELLENT, BROAD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS SITUATED
WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, JUST WEST OF AN ANTICYCLONE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. BASED
ON THE OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND EXPECTED TRACK AWAY FROM
LUZON IN THE NEXT 06-12 HOURS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 041930Z.//

[RL3AO]

WWJP25 RJTD 031800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 031800.
WARNING VALID 041800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK NORTHERN PART OF SEA
OF JAPAN MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 42N 140E 46N 150E
51N 157E 60N 164E 60N 180E 40N 180E 40N 165E 39N 155E 39N 145E 40N
142E 42N 140E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 996 HPA AT 55N 142E NE SLOWLY.
LOW 1014 HPA AT 49N 178E ENE 15 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA AT 19N 120E WNW 10 KT.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1002 HPA NEAR 17N 115E ALMOST STATIONARY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 26N 146E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1010 HPA AT 37N 126E EAST 20 KT.
HIGH 1010 HPA AT 28N 133E NW SLOWLY.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 43N 167E ESE 10 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 34N 129E TO 36N 134E 39N 138E 40N 142E 42N 145E
42N 152E.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

Almost looks like an eye-like feature near 19.5N 119.5E.

[RL3AO]

WTPN31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/031921Z AUG 08//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 19.6N 119.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 119.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 19.8N 117.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.9N 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.1N 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 20.5N 113.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 22.0N 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 23.5N 110.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 19.6N 119.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVMARFCSTCEN 031921Z AUG 08 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 031930). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 040000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z,
042100Z AND 050300Z.//

[HURAKAN]

[Typhoon Hunter]

Watch out Hong Kong! The HKO forecast track takes this very close to the territory on 6th August. They've already issued standby signal T1. More info here - http://www.hko.gov.hk/contente.htm

JMA forcasting TS within 24 hours too.

[RL3AO]

Interesting note. The equestrian events for the Olympics are in Hong Kong. Should be gone before events start on the 9th.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Yes that's a point, but as you said it should be out of the way in time. Could cause a few travel problems for people trying to get into HK though. The JTWC prognostic reasoning makes and interesting read regarding the influence of the circulation currently in the central South China Sea.

WDPN31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W HAS CONSOLIDATED QUICKLY OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS AS IT HAS TRACKED AWAY FROM NORTHERN LUZON. ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING FORMING
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE EASTERN QUADRANT AND
PERSISTENT BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. OVERALL, THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME WELL-DEFINED WITH A
032121Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTING A CONVECTIVE RING AND BANDING
CLEARLY WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. TD 10W HAS ACCELERATED WESTWARD
WITHIN LOW-LEVEL ENHANCED EASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN RIDGING TO THE NORTH
AND A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (CURRENTLY 99W).
B. TD 10W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE COMBINED STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM AND THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED WEST OF LUZON. ANIMAT-
ED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED
BY UPPER-LEVEL LOWS LOCATED NORTHWEST OF LUZON AND SOUTH OF OKINAWA,
AND BROAD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
WELL-DEFINED LLCC EVIDENT IN BOTH MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND IN THE
RECENT CONVECTIVE RING SIGNATURE IN RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THERE
IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN POSITIONING AND THE 12-HOUR STORM MOTION. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS FROM KNES
AND PGTW AS WELL AS ON A SHIP REPORT WITHIN 30 NM OF THE CENTER
SHOWING SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 25 KNOTS AND SLP OF 1002.2 MB.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. TD 10W IS FORECAST TO TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) SITUATED TO THE NORTH
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TD 10W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A 20
KNOT PER DAY RATE DUE TO THE RAPID INITIAL DEVELOPMENT AND EXPECTED
FAVORABLE OUTFLOW. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON LIMITED DYNAMIC MODEL
AIDS TO INCLUDE NOGAPS, WBAR, NCEP GFS, AND THE UK MET OFFICE. THE
MAJORITY OF THE MODELS ARE INITIALIZING THE SYSTEM POORLY, HOWEVER,
THEY ARE INITIALIZING THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE WELL AND SUPPORT A WESTWARD TRACK. MIDLATITUDE ANALYSIS ALSO
SUPPORTS THE TRACK SINCE THE PATTERN IS ZONAL AND THE STR EXTENDS
INTO EASTERN CHINA. THESE MODELS ALSO FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA CIRCULATION, WHICH APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT
CONSIDERING THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT OF TD 10W. THEREFORE, THERE
ARE SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THIS INITIAL FORECAST TRACK INCLUDING THE
POSSIBILITY OF INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO CIRCULATIONS, WHICH
MAY INDUCE A MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK IN THE EARLY TAUS UNTIL
THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS AND RETURNS TO A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTH-
WESTWARD TRACK. TD 10W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL SOUTH OF HONG
KONG BY TAU 72 AND TO WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TD 10W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 96.
FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//
NNNN

[Chacor]

Bulletin issued at 10:50 HKT 04/Aug/2008

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin

Here is the latest Tropical Cyclone Bulletin issued by the
Hong Kong Observatory.

The Standby Signal, No. 1 is in force.

This means that a tropical cyclone now centred within about
800 kilometres of Hong Kong may affect us.

At 11 a.m., the Tropical Depression over the northeastern
part of the south China sea was estimated to be about 590
kilometres southeast of Hong Kong (near 19.3 degrees north
118.8 degrees east) and is forecast to move west-northwest
at about 10 kilometres per hour gradually edge closer to
the south China coastal areas.


WTPQ20 RJTD 040000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040000UTC 19.5N 119.5E POOR
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 050000UTC 20.0N 117.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[kurtpage]

04/0230 UTC 19.1N 118.1E T2.0/2.0 10W

[HURAKAN]