CPAC: Tropical Depression Kika

[CrazyC83]

I don't see it lasting very long personally.

[masaji79]

Most Central Pacific storms tend to be small, although there are exceptions. Most of the storms that form in non-El Nino years tend to be smaller and weaker. Although I do remember in 1994 TD-1C brought us torrential rains on the Big Island. We got about 20 inches of rain in 24 hours. That was wild.

[HURAKAN]

Looking good.

[HURAKAN]

[Iune]

Could this mean Kika might be stronger at the next advisory?

[Cyclenall]

000
WTPA41 PHFO 071509 CCA
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3...CORRECTED
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008
509 AM HST THU AUG 07 2008

This is very weird, they were quite exact with the time on this one! I have never seen this before.

[Iune]

000
WTPA41 PHFO 071509 CCA
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3...CORRECTED
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008
509 AM HST THU AUG 07 2008

This is very weird, they were quite exact with the time on this one! I have never seen this before.

May be it is when they corrected it?

[HURAKAN]

448
WTPA41 PHFO 072052
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008
1100 AM HST THU AUG 07 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS...AND IN FACT THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THE PHFO DVORAK ANALYSIS WAS 2.5/2.5...THE JTWC
ANALYSIS WAS 2.0/2.5 AND THE SAB ANALYSIS WAS 2.0/2.0. WE HAVE KEPT
THE INITIAL INTENSITY UNCHANGED AT 35 KT. KIKA CONTINUES MOVING
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST AND THE SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THE FORWARD
MOTION HAS INCREASED TO 12 KT.

COMPUTER MODELS ARE VERY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING A FAIRLY STRONG AND
DEEP AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC THROUGH
AT LEAST THE NEXT 120 HOURS. THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL KEEP KIKA MOVING ALONG ON A TRACK TOWARD THE
WEST OR WEST NORTHWEST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS VERY TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED. WE HAVE CHANGED THE TRACK ONLY SLIGHTLY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE...SHIFTING THE TRACK SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

KIKA WILL REMAIN OVER 27C WATER WITH WEAK EASTERLY SHEAR FOR THE
NEXT 96 HOURS. THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLOW INTENSIFICATION. BEYOND
96 HOURS...KIKA IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AN AREA OF STRONGER
WESTERLY SHEAR...AND TO START WEAKENING. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS
MUCH THE SAME SO THERE HAS BEEN NO NEED TO CHANGE THE INTENSITY
FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/2100Z 11.1N 149.9W 35 KT
12HR VT 08/0600Z 11.3N 151.7W 40 KT
24HR VT 08/1800Z 11.6N 154.2W 45 KT
36HR VT 09/0600Z 11.8N 156.6W 45 KT
48HR VT 09/1800Z 12.2N 159.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 10/1800Z 13.3N 164.4W 50 KT
96HR VT 11/1800Z 14.6N 169.3W 50 KT
120HR VT 12/1800Z 15.4N 174.0W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON

[HURAKAN]

959
WTPA31 PHFO 072051
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008
1100 AM HST THU AUG 07 2008

...KIKA CONTINUE ON TRACK TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AS IT SLOWLY INTENSIFIES...

AT 1100 AM HST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 149.9 WEST OR ABOUT
880 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU HAWAII AND ABOUT 1370 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND.

KIKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM HST POSITION...11.1 N...149.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Likely intensifying. GO KIKA GO!!!

[HURAKAN]

No change in the intensity.
________________

662
WHXX01 KMIA 080057
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0057 UTC FRI AUG 8 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO CPHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE KIKA (CP012008) 20080808 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080808 0000 080808 1200 080809 0000 080809 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.2N 150.6W 11.3N 152.9W 11.5N 155.2W 11.9N 157.4W
BAMD 11.2N 150.6W 11.6N 153.3W 12.0N 155.9W 12.2N 158.4W
BAMM 11.2N 150.6W 11.5N 153.1W 11.7N 155.6W 11.9N 158.2W
LBAR 11.2N 150.6W 11.3N 153.4W 11.7N 156.0W 11.8N 158.7W
SHIP 35KTS 37KTS 39KTS 41KTS
DSHP 35KTS 37KTS 39KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080810 0000 080811 0000 080812 0000 080813 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.5N 159.6W 14.1N 164.0W 15.5N 168.7W 16.0N 173.4W
BAMD 12.5N 161.0W 13.7N 165.2W 14.8N 168.6W 15.2N 171.1W
BAMM 12.3N 160.7W 13.6N 165.4W 14.8N 169.9W 15.7N 174.2W
LBAR 11.8N 160.9W 11.7N 164.5W 11.0N 166.6W .0N .0W
SHIP 43KTS 42KTS 42KTS 42KTS
DSHP 43KTS 42KTS 42KTS 42KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.2N LONCUR = 150.6W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 10.6N LONM12 = 147.9W DIRM12 = 286DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 10.2N LONM24 = 146.3W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 70NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 45NM RD34SE = 20NM RD34SW = 20NM RD34NW = 45NM

[HURAKAN]

Looks a lot better.

[Chacor]

Kika might not make the WPac at all.

294
WTPA41 PHFO 080234
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008
500 PM HST THU AUG 07 2008

DVORAK ANALYSES FROM THE CPHC...JTWC AND SAB HAVE SHOWN LITTLE
CHANGE IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE PHFO DVORAK
ANALYSIS REMAINS 2.5/2.5...THE JTWC ANALYSIS SHOWED A BIT OF
WEAKENING AT 1.5/2.0 AND THE SAB ANALYSIS SHOWED DEVELOPMENT AT
2.5/2.5. THE SATELLITE FIXES WERE BASED ON IMAGERY 3 TO 3-1/2 HOURS
PRIOR TO THIS BULLETIN. OVER THAT TIME THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS SHOWN
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. WE HAVE KEPT THE INITIAL INTENSITY UNCHANGED
AT 35 KT. KIKA CONTINUES MOVING SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN FORWARD MOTION IN THE PAST 6 HOURS.

COMPUTER MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING A FAIRLY STRONG AND
DEEP AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC THROUGH
AT LEAST THE NEXT 120 HOURS. THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL KEEP KIKA MOVING ALONG ON A TRACK TOWARD THE
WEST OR WEST NORTHWEST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS EVEN MORE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED THAN THE GUIDANCE FROM 6 HOURS AGO. WE HAVE CHANGED THE
TRACK VERY LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...KEEPING THE TRACK IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS...KIKA IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SLIGHTLY
COOLER WATERS WHILE SHEAR WILL REMAIN QUITE WEAK. THAT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SLOW INTENSIFICATION. BEYOND 72 HOURS...KIKA IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO AN AREA OF STRONGER WESTERLY SHEAR...AND TO START
WEAKENING. THIS IS THE SAME INTENSITY TREND WE HAVE BEEN
FORECASTING ON OUR LAST COUPLE OF FORECASTS.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/0300Z 11.3N 151.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 08/1200Z 11.5N 153.2W 40 KT
24HR VT 09/0000Z 11.8N 155.7W 45 KT
36HR VT 09/1200Z 12.1N 158.3W 50 KT
48HR VT 10/0000Z 12.5N 160.9W 50 KT
72HR VT 11/0000Z 13.8N 166.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 12/0000Z 15.0N 171.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 13/0000Z 16.0N 175.6W 35 KT

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Change is in the air:

[HURAKAN]

559
WTPA41 PHFO 080853
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008
1100 PM HST THU AUG 07 2008

INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KT AS KIKA HAS SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE
IN OVERALL ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS IN LINE
WITH DVORAK CI ANALYSES FROM PHFO AND SAB. INITIAL MOTION OF 275/11
REMAINS UNCHANGED AS KIKA CONTINUES TO MOVE NEARLY DUE WEST ALONG
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF RIDGING EXTENDING THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE
TROPOSPHERE.

KIKA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS...BUT BEYOND THAT THE
TRACK WAS NUDGED SOUTHWARD TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
CONSENSUS OF DYNAMIC AIDS WHICH SUGGEST STRONG AND DEEP RIDGING WILL
MAINTAIN A NEAR DUE WEST MOTION. THIS MOTION WILL TAKE THE CENTER OF
KIKA ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH OF JOHNSTON ATOLL ON MONDAY.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT MORE COMPLICATED...WITH VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND SST TRENDS VARYING TO CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT ONLY
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. KIKA IS CURRENTLY MOVING
OVER WARM WATERS WITH A SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF 27C...BUT CIMSS
ANALYSES REVEAL SLIGHTLY MORE THAN 10 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR...WHICH
HAS LIKELY BEEN INHIBITING INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CREATING
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT SST VALUES WILL FALL
TO A MARGINAL 26C DURING THIS TIME. THUS...GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS WERE HELD TO 45 KT DUE TO THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. BEYOND 72
HOURS...SST VALUES WARM ABOVE 27C...BUT INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS
ALOFT WILL CREATE A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT THAT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
KIKA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/0900Z 11.4N 152.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 08/1800Z 11.6N 154.3W 40 KT
24HR VT 09/0600Z 11.8N 156.8W 45 KT
36HR VT 09/1800Z 12.0N 159.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 10/0600Z 12.2N 162.0W 45 KT
72HR VT 11/0600Z 12.7N 167.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 12/0600Z 13.6N 172.8W 40 KT
120HR VT 13/0600Z 13.6N 177.8W 35 KT

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON/WROE

454
WTPA31 PHFO 080845
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008
1100 PM HST THU AUG 07 2008

...KIKA REMAINS ON TRACK TO STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...

AT 1100 PM HST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 152.3 WEST OR ABOUT
780 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU HAWAII AND ABOUT 1210 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND.

KIKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM HST POSITION...11.4 N...152.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON/WROE

[KWT]

Surprised they held it at 35kts to be honest, I probably would have been tempted to up it a little with some deep convection over the LLC, though it has got a slightly untypical look with the convection extending to the north.

[Chacor]

WTPA41 PHFO 081454
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008
500 AM HST FRI AUG 08 2008

INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KT ALTHOUGH THE CENTRAL CONVECTION
HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED IN THE PAST SIX HOURS. DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM SAB AND PHFO REMAIN AT 2.5...OR 35 KT...
WHILE THE FINAL T NUMBERS WERE DOWN TO 2.0...OR 30 KT. THE JTWC
ANALYSIS CAME IN AT 1.5...OR 25 KT. EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT CONTINUE TO
INHIBIT OUTFLOW ALONG THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF KIKA AND CREATE
APPROXIMATELY 10 KT OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ACCORDING TO RECENT CIMSS
ANALYSES. ALTHOUGH THE WIND SHEAR WILL LIKELY RELAX TODAY... THE
INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS HAS BEEN HELD AT 35 KT DUE
TO THE CURRENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION.

INITIAL MOTION IS 270/11 AS KIKA CONTINUES TO MOVE DUE WEST ALONG
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF RIDGING EXTENDING THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE
TROPOSPHERE. THE DEEP LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP KIKA ON A WESTERLY
TRACK THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THE TRACK FORECAST HAS
BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
CONSENSUS OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DYNAMIC AIDS.

VARYING WIND SHEAR AND SST TRENDS WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT ONLY
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 48
HOURS. WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY...CREATING
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT SST VALUES WILL FALL
TO 26C WITH MARGINAL OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT VALUES INDICATED BY A CIRA
ANALYSIS ALONG THE TRACK. IN 72 HOURS...KIKA IS FORECAST TO MOVE
OVER A WARMER SEA SURFACE...BUT INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR WILL ACT
TO WEAKEN KIKA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/1500Z 11.3N 153.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 09/0000Z 11.4N 155.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 09/1200Z 11.5N 157.7W 40 KT
36HR VT 10/0000Z 11.6N 160.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 10/1200Z 11.9N 163.3W 45 KT
72HR VT 11/1200Z 12.6N 168.7W 45 KT
96HR VT 12/1200Z 13.4N 174.3W 40 KT
120HR VT 13/1200Z 13.5N 179.6W 35 KT

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON/WROE

[Jim Hughes]

Maybe a relocation of the center of circulation to the south now?