I'm really starting to wish Nash was writing these advisories. These last two discussions were nearly the exact same! In fact, I thought several times when going through the latest one tonight I was reading the same one previous to it! They got bored with it.
Their forecast has been flip-flopping quite a bit. I think it's just a major unknown since there just aren't many Cpac TC's to study from compared to other basins.
CPAC: Tropical Depression Kika
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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HURAKAN
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115
WTPA41 PHFO 100843
TCDCP1
TROPICAL STORM KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008
1100 PM HST SAT AUG 09 2008
SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 0600 UTC SHOWS MORE DEEP CONVECTION THAN 6
HOURS EARLIER. OBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES FOR 0600 UTC ALL HAVE
CURRENT INTENSITIES OF 2.0...OR 30 KT. I HAVE KEPT THE INITIAL
INTENSITY AT 35 KT. SINCE THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS SHOWN SOME
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS I WOULD NOT WANT TO DROP THE
INTENSITY NOW.
THE 0600 UTC SATELLITE FIXES WERE ALL FARTHER SOUTH THAN 6 HOURS AGO
AND SUGGEST A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION FOR THE PAST 6 HOURS. I HAVE
ADJUSTED THE TRACK SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANGE IN THE
TRACK. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT SHOWING KIKA
MOVING SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST. THIS SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE SINCE
DEEP RIDGING IS FORECAST TO PERSIST NORTH OF THE STORM WITH DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE RIDGE. I HAVE CONTINUED THIS GENERAL
TREND...KEEPING THE FORECAST TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
TRACK CONSENSUS. I HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST.
THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS KIKA OVER 26.5 TO 27.0C WATER FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT 72 HOURS. LIGHT EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BECOME EVEN
LIGHTER OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTER THAT...LIGHT WESTERLY SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH 72 HOURS. I
HAVE FORECAST SLOW INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN GRADUAL
WEAKENING AFTER 72 HOURS. KIKA HAS NOT ALWAYS RESPONDED AS EXPECTED
TO ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS...SO MY CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS NOT TOO HIGH.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/0900Z 10.0N 160.8W 35 KT
12HR VT 10/1800Z 10.1N 162.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 11/0600Z 10.6N 165.4W 35 KT
36HR VT 11/1800Z 11.1N 168.2W 40 KT
48HR VT 12/0600Z 11.6N 171.1W 45 KT
72HR VT 13/0600Z 12.3N 176.8W 45 KT
96HR VT 14/0600Z 12.8N 177.7E 40 KT
120HR VT 15/0600Z 13.3N 172.2E 35 KT
$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON
WTPA41 PHFO 100843
TCDCP1
TROPICAL STORM KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008
1100 PM HST SAT AUG 09 2008
SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 0600 UTC SHOWS MORE DEEP CONVECTION THAN 6
HOURS EARLIER. OBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES FOR 0600 UTC ALL HAVE
CURRENT INTENSITIES OF 2.0...OR 30 KT. I HAVE KEPT THE INITIAL
INTENSITY AT 35 KT. SINCE THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS SHOWN SOME
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS I WOULD NOT WANT TO DROP THE
INTENSITY NOW.
THE 0600 UTC SATELLITE FIXES WERE ALL FARTHER SOUTH THAN 6 HOURS AGO
AND SUGGEST A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION FOR THE PAST 6 HOURS. I HAVE
ADJUSTED THE TRACK SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANGE IN THE
TRACK. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT SHOWING KIKA
MOVING SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST. THIS SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE SINCE
DEEP RIDGING IS FORECAST TO PERSIST NORTH OF THE STORM WITH DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE RIDGE. I HAVE CONTINUED THIS GENERAL
TREND...KEEPING THE FORECAST TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
TRACK CONSENSUS. I HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST.
THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS KIKA OVER 26.5 TO 27.0C WATER FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT 72 HOURS. LIGHT EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BECOME EVEN
LIGHTER OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTER THAT...LIGHT WESTERLY SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH 72 HOURS. I
HAVE FORECAST SLOW INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN GRADUAL
WEAKENING AFTER 72 HOURS. KIKA HAS NOT ALWAYS RESPONDED AS EXPECTED
TO ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS...SO MY CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS NOT TOO HIGH.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/0900Z 10.0N 160.8W 35 KT
12HR VT 10/1800Z 10.1N 162.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 11/0600Z 10.6N 165.4W 35 KT
36HR VT 11/1800Z 11.1N 168.2W 40 KT
48HR VT 12/0600Z 11.6N 171.1W 45 KT
72HR VT 13/0600Z 12.3N 176.8W 45 KT
96HR VT 14/0600Z 12.8N 177.7E 40 KT
120HR VT 15/0600Z 13.3N 172.2E 35 KT
$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON
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WTPA41 PHFO 101438
TCDCP1
TROPICAL STORM KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008
500 AM HST SUN AUG 10 2008
OBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES FOR 1200 UTC FROM PHFO AND JTWC HAVE
CURRENT INTENSITIES OF 2.0...OR 30 KT FOR KIKA. HOWEVER...THE CLOUD
PATTERN HAS SHOWN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS SO I
HAVE KEPT THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 35 KT.
DEEP RIDGING IS FORECAST TO PERSIST NORTH OF THE STORM. DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STEER KIKA ON A
GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING KIKA TO MOVE NORTH OF WEST...THE 1200 UTC
SATELLITE FIXES SHOW THAT KIKA HAS ACTUALLY CONTINUED TRACKING
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST. I HAVE NUDGED THE TRACK SLIGHTLY FARTHER
SOUTH AGAIN TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANGE IN THE TRACK. I HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT KIKA WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST CLOSE TO THE
FORECAST TRACK.
THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS KIKA OVER 26.5 TO 27.0C WATER FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT 72 HOURS. VERY WEAK EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO
WEAK WESTERLY SHEAR AFTER 12 HOURS. THE WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH 72 HOURS. DESPITE SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...KIKA HAS NOT STRENGTHENED VERY RAPIDLY.
I HAVE FORECAST SLOW INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 36 HOURS...THEN
GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTER 48 HOURS AS SHEAR INCREASES. SINCE KIKA HAS
NOT RESPONDED AS EXPECTED TO ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS...MY CONFIDENCE
IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS RATHER LOW.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/1500Z 9.8N 162.1W 35 KT
12HR VT 11/0000Z 9.9N 163.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 11/1200Z 10.2N 166.2W 35 KT
36HR VT 12/0000Z 10.6N 168.6W 40 KT
48HR VT 12/1200Z 11.1N 170.9W 40 KT
72HR VT 13/1200Z 12.2N 176.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 14/1200Z 12.9N 178.3E 35 KT
120HR VT 15/1200Z 13.2N 173.1E 35 KT
$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON
TCDCP1
TROPICAL STORM KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008
500 AM HST SUN AUG 10 2008
OBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES FOR 1200 UTC FROM PHFO AND JTWC HAVE
CURRENT INTENSITIES OF 2.0...OR 30 KT FOR KIKA. HOWEVER...THE CLOUD
PATTERN HAS SHOWN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS SO I
HAVE KEPT THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 35 KT.
DEEP RIDGING IS FORECAST TO PERSIST NORTH OF THE STORM. DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STEER KIKA ON A
GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING KIKA TO MOVE NORTH OF WEST...THE 1200 UTC
SATELLITE FIXES SHOW THAT KIKA HAS ACTUALLY CONTINUED TRACKING
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST. I HAVE NUDGED THE TRACK SLIGHTLY FARTHER
SOUTH AGAIN TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CHANGE IN THE TRACK. I HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT KIKA WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST CLOSE TO THE
FORECAST TRACK.
THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS KIKA OVER 26.5 TO 27.0C WATER FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT 72 HOURS. VERY WEAK EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO
WEAK WESTERLY SHEAR AFTER 12 HOURS. THE WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH 72 HOURS. DESPITE SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...KIKA HAS NOT STRENGTHENED VERY RAPIDLY.
I HAVE FORECAST SLOW INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 36 HOURS...THEN
GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTER 48 HOURS AS SHEAR INCREASES. SINCE KIKA HAS
NOT RESPONDED AS EXPECTED TO ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS...MY CONFIDENCE
IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS RATHER LOW.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 10/1500Z 9.8N 162.1W 35 KT
12HR VT 11/0000Z 9.9N 163.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 11/1200Z 10.2N 166.2W 35 KT
36HR VT 12/0000Z 10.6N 168.6W 40 KT
48HR VT 12/1200Z 11.1N 170.9W 40 KT
72HR VT 13/1200Z 12.2N 176.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 14/1200Z 12.9N 178.3E 35 KT
120HR VT 15/1200Z 13.2N 173.1E 35 KT
$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON
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WTPA41 PHFO 111430
TCDCP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008
500 AM HST MON AUG 11 2008
CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC SINCE 11 PM.
HOWEVER...JTWC...PHFO AND SAB HAVE ALL DERIVED A CURRENT INTENSITY
OF 25 KT. ALSO...THE LATEST MULTIPLATFORM TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND
ANALYSIS FROM CIRA SHOWS MAXIMUM WINDS OF 25 KT WITHIN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. UW/CIMMS BREAKS THIS PATTERN WITH AN INTENSITY OF 35 KT.
WHILE IT IS TEMPTING TO ASSIGN A 25 KT INITIAL INTENSITY...WE WILL
INSTEAD KEEP IT AT 30 KT NOT ONLY AS A NOD TO UW/CIMMS BUT ALSO TO
THE RAPID INCREASE IN SYSTEM CONVECTION.
TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...TAKING KIKA ON A STEADY
WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 120 HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK...FIRMLY
NESTLED AMONG THIS GUIDANCE...CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ONE.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS NOT AS TIGHT AS THOSE FOR TRACK. GFDL VERY
SLOWLY WEAKENS KIKA TO 27 KT AT 96 HOURS...WHILE SHIPS GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENS KIKA TO HURRICANE STATUS AT 120 HOURS. THE SUDDEN
CONVECTIVE SURGE STIFLES ANY URGE TO DISSIPATE KIKA. YET
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WITHIN THE KIKA ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE STEADILY THROUGH 48 HOURS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
CHANGE LITTLE ACROSS THE FORECAST TRACK...WITH THE TWO EFFECTS
LIKELY RESULTING IN SLIGHT WEAKENING AT LEAST THROUGH 24 HOURS. AS
A COMPROMISE...WE WILL WEAKEN KIKA TO 25 KT AT 24 HOURS...THEN KEEP
KIKA AT THAT STRENGTH THROUGH 120 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/1500Z 10.1N 167.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 12/0000Z 10.3N 169.6W 30 KT
24HR VT 12/1200Z 10.8N 172.5W 25 KT
36HR VT 13/0000Z 11.3N 175.6W 25 KT
48HR VT 13/1200Z 11.7N 178.5W 25 KT
72HR VT 14/1200Z 12.4N 176.3E 25 KT
96HR VT 15/1200Z 13.2N 171.3E 25 KT
120HR VT 16/1200Z 14.8N 166.7E 25 KT
- Hide quoted text -
$$
FORECASTER POWELL
TCDCP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008
500 AM HST MON AUG 11 2008
CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC SINCE 11 PM.
HOWEVER...JTWC...PHFO AND SAB HAVE ALL DERIVED A CURRENT INTENSITY
OF 25 KT. ALSO...THE LATEST MULTIPLATFORM TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND
ANALYSIS FROM CIRA SHOWS MAXIMUM WINDS OF 25 KT WITHIN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. UW/CIMMS BREAKS THIS PATTERN WITH AN INTENSITY OF 35 KT.
WHILE IT IS TEMPTING TO ASSIGN A 25 KT INITIAL INTENSITY...WE WILL
INSTEAD KEEP IT AT 30 KT NOT ONLY AS A NOD TO UW/CIMMS BUT ALSO TO
THE RAPID INCREASE IN SYSTEM CONVECTION.
TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...TAKING KIKA ON A STEADY
WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 120 HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK...FIRMLY
NESTLED AMONG THIS GUIDANCE...CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ONE.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS NOT AS TIGHT AS THOSE FOR TRACK. GFDL VERY
SLOWLY WEAKENS KIKA TO 27 KT AT 96 HOURS...WHILE SHIPS GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENS KIKA TO HURRICANE STATUS AT 120 HOURS. THE SUDDEN
CONVECTIVE SURGE STIFLES ANY URGE TO DISSIPATE KIKA. YET
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WITHIN THE KIKA ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE STEADILY THROUGH 48 HOURS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
CHANGE LITTLE ACROSS THE FORECAST TRACK...WITH THE TWO EFFECTS
LIKELY RESULTING IN SLIGHT WEAKENING AT LEAST THROUGH 24 HOURS. AS
A COMPROMISE...WE WILL WEAKEN KIKA TO 25 KT AT 24 HOURS...THEN KEEP
KIKA AT THAT STRENGTH THROUGH 120 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/1500Z 10.1N 167.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 12/0000Z 10.3N 169.6W 30 KT
24HR VT 12/1200Z 10.8N 172.5W 25 KT
36HR VT 13/0000Z 11.3N 175.6W 25 KT
48HR VT 13/1200Z 11.7N 178.5W 25 KT
72HR VT 14/1200Z 12.4N 176.3E 25 KT
96HR VT 15/1200Z 13.2N 171.3E 25 KT
120HR VT 16/1200Z 14.8N 166.7E 25 KT
- Hide quoted text -
$$
FORECASTER POWELL
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082
WTPA41 PHFO 120235
TCDCP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008
500 PM HST MON AUG 11 2008
THE CONVECTION HANGING AROUND TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKA THROUGH THE
MORNING HAS WEAKENED BOTH IN SCOPE AND INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON...LEAVING THE LOW LEVEL CENTER PARTIALLY EXPOSED. THE
PARTIALLY EXPOSED CENTER ALLOWED FOR AN EASIER 00Z POSITION FIX
NEAR 10.8N AND 170.3W. IN LIGHT OF THIS...THE 18Z AND 12Z
POSITIONS WERE TOO FAR SOUTH AND WERE REBESTED FURTHER TO THE
NORTH. JTWC CONSIDERS KIKA TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY WHILE PHFO AND SAB
INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 25 KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE STARTING TO IMPACT KIKA AND IR
IMAGERY SHOWS KIKA FLATTENING OUT ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE DROPPED TO 25 KT.
WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR TAKING EFFECT AND NO SIGNIFICANT
WARMING OF SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
NOW WEAKENS KIKA INTO A REMNANT LOW AT 36 HOURS JUST PRIOR TO
CROSSING THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED FURTHER TO THE LEFT OR
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND REMAINS ON THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
FRINGE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THIS SHIFT RESULTS IN A
NEARLY DUE WEST TRACK...THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO GIVEN THE EXPECTED
WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. EXPECTED HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND RIDGING AT MID LEVELS THROUGH 72 HOURS WILL PROVIDE
THE PRIMARY STEERING FOR KIKA...AND DO NOT SEE ENOUGH WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE ALLOWING FOR MUCH IF ANY DISPLACEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/0300Z 10.8N 170.3W 25 KT
12HR VT 12/1200Z 10.8N 172.4W 25 KT
24HR VT 13/0000Z 10.9N 175.2W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 13/1200Z 11.0N 178.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 14/0000Z 11.0N 179.1E 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 15/0000Z 11.2N 173.2E 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 16/0000Z 11.4N 169.2E 0 KT...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER TANABE
WTPA41 PHFO 120235
TCDCP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008
500 PM HST MON AUG 11 2008
THE CONVECTION HANGING AROUND TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKA THROUGH THE
MORNING HAS WEAKENED BOTH IN SCOPE AND INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON...LEAVING THE LOW LEVEL CENTER PARTIALLY EXPOSED. THE
PARTIALLY EXPOSED CENTER ALLOWED FOR AN EASIER 00Z POSITION FIX
NEAR 10.8N AND 170.3W. IN LIGHT OF THIS...THE 18Z AND 12Z
POSITIONS WERE TOO FAR SOUTH AND WERE REBESTED FURTHER TO THE
NORTH. JTWC CONSIDERS KIKA TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY WHILE PHFO AND SAB
INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 25 KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE STARTING TO IMPACT KIKA AND IR
IMAGERY SHOWS KIKA FLATTENING OUT ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE DROPPED TO 25 KT.
WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR TAKING EFFECT AND NO SIGNIFICANT
WARMING OF SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
NOW WEAKENS KIKA INTO A REMNANT LOW AT 36 HOURS JUST PRIOR TO
CROSSING THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED FURTHER TO THE LEFT OR
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND REMAINS ON THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
FRINGE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THIS SHIFT RESULTS IN A
NEARLY DUE WEST TRACK...THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO GIVEN THE EXPECTED
WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. EXPECTED HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND RIDGING AT MID LEVELS THROUGH 72 HOURS WILL PROVIDE
THE PRIMARY STEERING FOR KIKA...AND DO NOT SEE ENOUGH WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE ALLOWING FOR MUCH IF ANY DISPLACEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/0300Z 10.8N 170.3W 25 KT
12HR VT 12/1200Z 10.8N 172.4W 25 KT
24HR VT 13/0000Z 10.9N 175.2W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 13/1200Z 11.0N 178.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 14/0000Z 11.0N 179.1E 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 15/0000Z 11.2N 173.2E 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 16/0000Z 11.4N 169.2E 0 KT...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER TANABE
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Gone.
WTPA31 PHFO 120834
TCPCP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008
1100 PM HST MON AUG 11 2008
...KIKA WEAKENING FAR SOUTHWEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
AT 1100 PM HST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 171.3 WEST OR
ABOUT 1130 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU HAWAII...AND ABOUT 400
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND.
THE DISSIPATING DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...
AND THIS SHOULD BE THE GENERAL MOTION OF THE REMNANT LOW OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KIKA
IS DISSIPATING...AND WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT LOW WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM HST POSITION...11.2 N...171.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB.
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM...UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.
$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD
WTPA31 PHFO 120834
TCPCP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008
1100 PM HST MON AUG 11 2008
...KIKA WEAKENING FAR SOUTHWEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
AT 1100 PM HST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 171.3 WEST OR
ABOUT 1130 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU HAWAII...AND ABOUT 400
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND.
THE DISSIPATING DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...
AND THIS SHOULD BE THE GENERAL MOTION OF THE REMNANT LOW OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KIKA
IS DISSIPATING...AND WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT LOW WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM HST POSITION...11.2 N...171.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB.
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM...UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.
$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD
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