CPAC: Tropical Depression Kika

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 062030.GIF

Best looking invest ever!!!

[Chacor]

Hello? Can you remove the SAB fix from the topic? What makes SAB's fix more important than CPHC's own T2.0?

EDIT: and as you can see from the ATCF fix file, even the JTWC had T1.0/1.5 at the time of SAB's T2.5:

CP, 92, 200808061730, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1010N, 14550W, , 3, 25, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , PGTW, TB, VII, 6, 1015 /////, , , GOES11, CSC, T, .2 WRAP
CP, 92, 200808061730, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1010N, 14580W, , 3, 25, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , PHFO, TB, VI, 6, 1515 /////, , , GOES11, CSC, T, .2 wrap
CP, 92, 200808061800, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1010N, 14520W, , 3, 35, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , SAB, TB, I, 6, 2525 /////, , , GOES11, CSC, T,

[HURAKAN]

I want to indicate the SAB fix, I don't see the problem. If people are nice when they inquire about changes, I may consider it.

[HURAKAN]

07/0000 UTC 10.2N 146.3W T2.5/2.5 92C -- Central Pacific Ocean

Still 2.5

[Chacor]

Why SAB alone? Why not JTWC's T1.0/1.5 or CPHC's own T2.0/2.0? What makes the SAB so special? Just because they have the most accessible fixes doesn't make them the most accurate.

[Chacor]

Okay, whoa: JTWC calling it 01C:

TPPZ01 PGTW 070029

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01C (SE OF HAWAII)

B. 06/2330Z

C. 10.3N

D. 146.1W

E. SIX/GOES11

F. T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: D1.0/06HRS (06/2330Z)

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
A 2.0 DT. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

[Chacor]

File: invest_RENUMBER_cp922008_cp012008.ren 2 KB 8/7/08 12:37:00 AM

This is the first home-grown CPac depression since TD Four-C in 2006.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Since the JTWC is American and Centeral Pacific hurricane center is American how can they disagree. So I expect that the Centeral Pacific hurricane center is upgrading to.

[Chacor]

Since the JTWC is American and Centeral Pacific hurricane center is American how can they disagree. So I expect that the Centeral Pacific hurricane center is upgrading to.

Well, the SAB has assigned unofficial invest numbers in the past so it is possible.

Still, the JTWC/NPMOC is to the CPHC what NLMOC (Atlantic) and NPMOC (EPac) is to the TPC/NHC. They're the DOD people the civilian centre has to confer with on tropical systems.

[HURAKAN]

It's a depression now but a TCFA was issued not long ago.



WTPN21 PGTW 062130
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
090 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.1N 145.3W TO 10.8N 150.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 061800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.1N 145.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.1N 145.7W,
APPROXIMATELY 785 NM SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAWAII. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED, BUT SMALL LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING DEVELOPING IN THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT. CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY
WARM, BUT THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING WESTWARD IN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. VERTICALLY WIND SHEAR IS LOW AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ADEQUATE FOR ADDITIONAL SLOW
INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 072130Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

400 PM HST WED AUG 6 2008

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A low pressure system centered about 880 miles southeast of Hilo has become better organized today while moving west at about 14 mph. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center will be initiating advisories at 5 pm HST on this system as tropical depression One-C.

[Alacane2]

WTPA31 PHFO 070225
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008
500 PM HST WED AUG 06 2008

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C SPINS UP FAR SOUTHEAST OF HAWAII

AT 500 PM HST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 146.9 WEST OR
ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII AND ABOUT 1055 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU HAWAII.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS COURSE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM HST POSITION...10.3 N...146.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER CRAIG

[HURAKAN]

852
WTPA41 PHFO 070228
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008
500 PM HST WED AUG 06 2008

THE SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKED AS INVEST 92C FAR SOUTHEAST OF
HAWAII HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS...AND
THOUGH STILL SMALL CAN NOW BE CALLED TD ONE-C. SATELLITE IMAGERY
HAS SHOWN THAT A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER HAS FORMED DURING THE
COURSE OF THE DAY...WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM PHFO AND JTWC
WERE 2.0 WITH SAB COMING IN AT 2.5. HAVE GONE WITH THE FIRST TWO...
PLACING MAXIMUM WINDS AT 30 KT.

TD ONE-C IS MOVING TO THE WEST AT ABOUT 12 KT...BEING DRIVEN BY DEEP
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS SOUTH OF A LARGE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED
NORTHEAST OF HAWAII. THE HIGH AND THE RIDGE EXTENDING WEST OF THE
HIGH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH OR CHANGE MUCH IN STRENGTH OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS THEREFORE JUST AN
EXTENTION OF ITS PRESENT MOVEMENT...AND FALLS IN THE MIDDLE OF A
TIGHT PACK OF OBJECTIVE AIDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS PRESENTLY OVER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT
27 DEGREES CELSIUS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE WARM WATER IS JUST ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN OR EVEN
CAUSE A SLOW STRENGTHENING OF THE DEPRESSION TO A TROPICAL STORM IN
24 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/0300Z 10.3N 146.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 07/1200Z 10.4N 148.6W 30 KT
24HR VT 08/0000Z 10.6N 151.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 08/1200Z 10.8N 153.4W 35 KT
48HR VT 09/0000Z 11.0N 155.9W 40 KT
72HR VT 10/0000Z 11.5N 161.3W 40 KT
96HR VT 11/0000Z 12.3N 166.9W 40 KT
120HR VT 12/0000Z 13.8N 172.2W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER CRAIG

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Not a lot of land to threaten!

[HURAKAN]

[RL3AO]

Not a lot of land to threaten!

The track says One-E. Oopsie.

[HURAKAN]

The track says One-E. Oopsie.

First

Second, they are coming out of a two year hibernation. Give them time.

[RL3AO]

The track says One-E. Oopsie.

First

Second, they are coming out of a two year hibernation. Give them time.

They probably had to look up to see if 30kt was a depression or a storm.

[RattleMan]

852
WTPA41 PHFO 070228
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008
500 PM HST WED AUG 06 2008

THE SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKED AS INVEST 92C FAR SOUTHEAST OF
HAWAII HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS...AND
THOUGH STILL SMALL CAN NOW BE CALLED TD ONE-C. SATELLITE IMAGERY
HAS SHOWN THAT A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER HAS FORMED DURING THE
COURSE OF THE DAY...WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM PHFO AND JTWC
WERE 2.0 WITH SAB COMING IN AT 2.5. HAVE GONE WITH THE FIRST TWO...
PLACING MAXIMUM WINDS AT 30 KT.
...

Interesting that they mentioned the invest number. I've never seen that done before.