CPAC: Tropical Depression Kika

[HURAKAN]

852
WTPA41 PHFO 070228
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008
500 PM HST WED AUG 06 2008

THE SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKED AS INVEST 92C FAR SOUTHEAST OF
HAWAII HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS...AND
THOUGH STILL SMALL CAN NOW BE CALLED TD ONE-C. SATELLITE IMAGERY
HAS SHOWN THAT A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER HAS FORMED DURING THE
COURSE OF THE DAY...WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM PHFO AND JTWC
WERE 2.0 WITH SAB COMING IN AT 2.5. HAVE GONE WITH THE FIRST TWO...
PLACING MAXIMUM WINDS AT 30 KT.
...

Interesting that they mentioned the invest number. I've never seen that done before.

Didn't see that. That's quite remarkable, first time I see that. They usually never mention that it was "invest x" before becoming a cyclone

[HURAKAN]

They should use another color for TS intensity but I have always liked this format.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

852
WTPA41 PHFO 070228
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008
500 PM HST WED AUG 06 2008

THE SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKED AS INVEST 92C FAR SOUTHEAST OF
HAWAII HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS...AND
THOUGH STILL SMALL CAN NOW BE CALLED TD ONE-C. SATELLITE IMAGERY
HAS SHOWN THAT A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER HAS FORMED DURING THE
COURSE OF THE DAY...WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM PHFO AND JTWC
WERE 2.0 WITH SAB COMING IN AT 2.5. HAVE GONE WITH THE FIRST TWO...
PLACING MAXIMUM WINDS AT 30 KT.
...

Interesting that they mentioned the invest number. I've never seen that done before.

Didn't see that. That's quite remarkable, first time I see that. They usually never mention that it was "invest x" before becoming a cyclone

My theory is that the nhc being big and powerful hates not being the first ones in upgrading systems. So they don't talk about the "invest". because they may believe that the NRL is crossing into their area. On the other hand the smaller Centeral Pacific hurricane center don't "care" who's first in will use it because they think that the NRL does a good job with tracking the undeclared cyclones.

Now this is just a "theory" maybe not even that. It is simple human nature.

I like to think about things like this to much; while on other things like derek has pointed out I don't think at all.

[RL3AO]

My theory is that the nhc being big and powerful hates not being the first ones in upgrading systems. So they don't talk about the "invest". because they may believe that the NRL is crossing into their area. On the other hand the smaller Centeral Pacific hurricane center don't "care" who's first in will use it because they think that the NRL does a good job with tracking the undeclared cyclones.

Now this is just a "theory" maybe not even that. It is simple human nature.

I like to think about things like this to much; while on other things like derek has pointed out I don't think at all.

The NRL has nothing to do with tagging invests. The NHC decides whats an invest.

[Cyclenall]

This is finally a tropical cyclone...officially.

The GFDL model runs since 0Z have made this at least a medium category 1 hurricane with the latest very close to CAT2. This is great!

Again I hope to see more discussions from Forecaster Nash who writes excellent advisories.

I noticed they used "Invest 92C" in their discussion, I haven't seen this before and it shows they are more laid back writing them (like from Ioke near the start). The forecast is too conservative.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

My theory is that the nhc being big and powerful hates not being the first ones in upgrading systems. So they don't talk about the "invest". because they may believe that the NRL is crossing into their area. On the other hand the smaller Centeral Pacific hurricane center don't "care" who's first in will use it because they think that the NRL does a good job with tracking the undeclared cyclones.

Now this is just a "theory" maybe not even that. It is simple human nature.

I like to think about things like this to much; while on other things like derek has pointed out I don't think at all.

The NRL has nothing to do with tagging invests. The NHC decides whats an invest.

Thanks, I did not know.

[RL3AO]

Thanks, I did not know.

All the pressure, location, and wind speeds for the Atlantic, EPac, and CPac that the NRL has for invests comes from the NHC/NCEP/NOAA's ATCF file that is updated every six hours.

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

E-mail:

Good everning from Miami, FL,

My name is Sandy Delgado, Meteorology student with a passion for tropical cyclones. I notice that in your website the track of TD 01C says 01-E, indicating the Eastern Pacific. I believe that is erroneous. Great to have a cyclone to track in the CPAC.

Thanks,

Sandy

------------------------------------------

Thanks for the note. We have a software problem that the developers will need to fix. Since we are not able adjust the code locally, this system will be mislabeled on the map for possibly the duration of this system. Text products and the web page headers are correctly identifying the system as One-C.

[Cyclenall]

The latest models show this:

- The GFS shows a train in the Pacific with TD1-C, Hernan moving close to 140W, another powerful storm in the far east Pacific (wow), and another Cpac system spinning up later on

- GFDL shows the same for TD1-C as it did with previous runs

- HWRF shows more strengthening but only to moderate TS status

- CMC not as crazy as the GFS, but shows quite the system off Africa

- Ukmet does not show anything interesting happening

Basically, the GFS run wanted to pretend it was the CMC for one run.

[Cyclenall]

On the NRL, it's listed as 01C.KIKA!!!



If this is official, it is the first named storm in the Cpac since the legendary Hurricane Ioke in 2006. I think they are catching up since earlier when this may have been a tropical cyclone for a bit longer then indicated.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Nice to see a Cpac system spin up, it's been a while. NRL listing this as Kika now but nothing from CPHC yet.

[RattleMan]

ATCF sez:

CP, 01, 2008080706, , BEST, 0, 104N, 1472W, 35, 1008, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 10, 10, 30, 1012, 70, 30, 45, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, ONE, D,

[Chacor]

TD One-C/Kika forecasting challenge:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=25&t=102360

Have a go.

[Chacor]

WTPA21 PHFO 070835
TCMCP1

TROPICAL STORM KIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008
0900 UTC THU AUG 07 2008


TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 147.8W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 147.8W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 147.2W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 10.5N 149.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 10SE 10SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 10.8N 152.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 11.0N 154.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 11.2N 157.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 12.1N 162.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 13.3N 167.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 14.8N 172.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.4N 147.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA

[Chacor]

WTPA41 PHFO 070838
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008
1100 PM HST WED AUG 06 2008

CONVECTION HAS REMAINED PERSISTENT NEAR THE CENTER AND THE
CONSENSUS DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM PHFO...JTWC AND SAB CAME IN
AT 2.5...OR 35 KT. AS A RESULT...ONE-C HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO
TROPICAL STORM KIKA. THE SYSTEM REMAINS RATHER SMALL AND THE
PRIMARY QUIKSCAT SOLUTION FROM 0400 UTC DOES NOT DEPICT A CLOSED
CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...AMBIGUITY DATA INDICATE POSSIBLE WESTERLIES
TO CLOSE OFF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER. SSMI AND GOES DATA CERTAINLY
SUPPORT A CLOSED CIRCULATION.

KIKA IS MOVING WITHIN DEEP EASTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE RELATIVELY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
AND SHOW A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS THEN A
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR
170W. THE CURRENT FORECAST STAYS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND
IS CONSISTENT WITH THE DYNAMIC MODEL CONSENSUS.

AS FOR INTENSITY...CIMSS SHEAR DATA SHOW ABOUT 15 KT OF EASTERLY
SHEAR IMPINGING UPON KIKA. THIS IS EVIDENT IN RECENT IR IMAGES
WHICH SHOW A RESTRICTED OUTFLOW IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
MICROWAVE DATA FROM 0248 AND 0340 UTC ALSO SUGGEST A TILTING OF
CENTER WITH HEIGHT. THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE SHEAR MAY HINDER
ANY MAJOR DEVELOPMENT DESPITE ADEQUATE SST VALUES OF 27C. THE
TRACK KEEPS KIKA NEAR 27C WATER THROUGH 36 HOURS THEN INTO MARGINAL
SST CONDITIONS THROUGH 96 HOURS. ALTHOUGH SST VALUES ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK INCREASE BEYOND 96 HOURS...SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AND HINDER INTENSIFICATION. THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS
SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THROUGH 24 HOURS
BUT GENERALLY CONSISTENT BEYOND THAT TIME FRAME.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/0900Z 10.4N 147.8W 35 KT
12HR VT 07/1800Z 10.5N 149.5W 40 KT
24HR VT 08/0600Z 10.8N 152.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 08/1800Z 11.0N 154.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 09/0600Z 11.2N 157.0W 45 KT
72HR VT 10/0600Z 12.1N 162.4W 45 KT
96HR VT 11/0600Z 13.3N 167.6W 45 KT
120HR VT 12/0600Z 14.8N 172.5W 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA

[KWT]

Very interesting to see at last another Cpac system, not really all that surprising mind you given how good it looked last night. I wouldn't be surprised if it eventually strengthens a little more then forecasted.

Whats the odds it makes it into the WPAC?

[Chacor]

T2.5/2.5 from PHFO (CPHC)... T2.0/2.5 from PGTW (JTWC)... T2.0/2.5 from KNES (SAB).

[HurricaneRobert]

This is so tiny. Or maybe Hernan is so huge.

[Chacor]

Indeed a really small storm. However, TS-force winds extend out quite a distance for its size: 35 miles, which is still larger than Tracy (30 miles). I know what I've got down for my storm of the month already unless something major happens.