WPAC: Tropical Storm Phanfone (95W INVEST)

[Chacor]

For some reason, this isn't an INVEST.

WTPQ20 RJTD 100000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100000UTC 29.2N 153.1E POOR
MOVE ENE 12KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 110000UTC 36.0N 160.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE NE 24KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

[Chacor]

Hang on, this is ex-93W.

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 100300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100300UTC 29.8N 154.2E POOR
MOVE ENE 15KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 110300UTC 38.4N 162.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE NE 27KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

In my option that is 45 knots. Deep minus 80 convection with outlfow...Wow,,,

[P.K.]

WTPQ20 RJTD 100600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0810 PHANFONE (0810) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100600UTC 30.3N 154.8E POOR
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 110600UTC 39.7N 162.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNE 28KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 120600UTC 43.3N 165.4E 200NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

[P.K.]

CMA, CWB and KMA all issuing advisories on this as well but it isn't on the NRL. The speed of movement given by the CWB is clearly a mistake.

** WTPQ20 BABJ 100600 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TS PHANFONE 0810 (0810) INITIAL TIME 100600 UTC
00HR 30.5N 155.1E 1000HPA 18M/S
30KTS 250KM
P12HR NNE 55KM/H
P+24HR 40.4N 163.5E 992HPA 23M/S
P+48HR 44.4N 168.0E 995HPA 20M/S=

-------

** WTKO20 RKSL 100600 ***
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 1
NAME TS 0810 PHANFONE
ANALYSIS
POSITION 100600UTC 30.3N 154.8E
MOVEMENT NE 17KT
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 35KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 110600UTC 38.8N 161.5E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 39KT
48HR
POSITION 120600UTC 44.2N 165.8E WITHIN 0NM
PRES 1000HPA
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

-----

Tropical Storm PHANFONE (0810)
Typhoon Status
0600UTC 10 August 2008
Center Location 30.3N 154.8E
Movement - -99km/hr
Minimum Pressure 998hPa
Maximum Wind Speed 18m/s
Gust 25m/s
Radius of 15m/s 100km
Radius of 25m/s -km
Typhoon Forecast
12 hours valid at:
1800UTC 10 August 2008
Center Position 34.8N 158.4E
Vector to 12 HR Position
NNE 50km/hr
Radius of 70% probability circle 130km
24 hours valid at:
0600UTC 11 August 2008
Center Position 39.4N 162.0E
Vector to 24 HR Position
NNE 50km/hr
Radius of 70% probability circle 230km
48 hours valid at:
0600UTC 12 August 2008
Extratropical Low

[Chacor]

[Chacor]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 30.1N 155.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 715 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHICHI JIMA. RECENT ANI-
MATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE FLARE OF DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER EVIDENT IN A 100751Z SSMI MICROWAVE PASS. THIS CIRCULA-
TION IS DEVELOPING IN A BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT, SUPPORTED BY A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK ALOFT. PASSAGE OVER WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, EXCEEDING 26 DEGREES CELCIUS, AND STRONG
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT HAVE ENABLED THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION TO
INTENSIFY RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 06 TO 12 HOURS AND SUPPORTED
EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN
PERIPHERIES OF THE DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER, MID-LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DISTURBANCE AND BURGEONING
FRONTAL FEATURES INDICATIVE OF MID-LATITUDE WAVE CYCLONE DEVEL-
OPMENT SUGGEST THAT THIS RAPIDLY-MOVING CYCLONE WILL NOT LIKELY
TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BECAUSE THIS DISTURBANCE IS
DEVELOPING AS A BAROCLINIC LOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

[P.K.]

No longer forecast to exceed 35kts.

WTPQ20 RJTD 101200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0810 PHANFONE (0810)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101200UTC 31.7N 156.8E FAIR
MOVE NE 21KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 111200UTC 40.7N 163.3E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE 27KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 121200UTC 44.3N 165.8E 160NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

[CrazyC83]

Subtropical storm?

10/1430 UTC 33.4N 159.5E ST2.5/3.0 PHANFONE

[HURAKAN]

10/2030 UTC 37.2N 161.8E EXTRATROPICAL PHANFONE -- West Pacific Ocean

[Chacor]

JMA does not consider it extratropical yet.

WTPQ20 RJTD 110000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0810 PHANFONE (0810)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110000UTC 38.9N 162.6E FAIR
MOVE NNE 36KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 120000UTC 44.5N 164.0E 85NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

[Chacor]

JMA are, of course, notorious for waiting until transition has completed before declaring a system no longer tropical.

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 110600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME LOW FORMER TS 0810 PHANFONE (0810)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110600UTC 41N 164E
MOVE NNE 30KT
PRES 1000HPA =

[Chacor]

The best-track is out. Upgraded to a severe TS.

AXPQ20 RJTD 260900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE BEST TRACK
NAME 0810 PHANFONE (0810)
PERIOD FROM AUG0912UTC TO AUG1118UTC
0912 27.3N 151.4E 1002HPA //KT 0918 27.8N 152.4E 1002HPA //KT
1000 28.9N 153.9E 1002HPA //KT 1006 30.8N 155.9E 1000HPA 35KT
1012 32.5N 158.2E 998HPA 45KT 1018 35.0N 160.3E 996HPA 50KT
1100 39.4N 163.2E 998HPA 40KT 1106 41.7N 164.5E 1000HPA //KT
1112 42.6N 165.2E 1006HPA //KT 1118 44.3N 167.4E 1012HPA //KT
REMARKS
TD FORMATION AT AUG0912UTC
FROM TD TO TS AT AUG1006UTC
FROM TS TO STS AT AUG1018UTC
FROM STS TO TS AT AUG1100UTC
FROM TS TO L AT AUG1106UTC
DISSIPATION AT AUG1200UTC=