ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Sean in New Orleans]

Thank you twister!!! We are off of that bad #!!! Now we're on 667

[LAwxrgal]

667 pages has to be a record.

Fay just might have earned herself a permanent vacation. Not sure yet...

[funster]

She's still alive

0935 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 24 SSE PECAN ISLAND 29.30N 92.37W
08/24/2008 M50 MPH GMZ452 LA PUBLIC

50 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED BY PLATFORM IN VERMILION BLOCK
67.

[Clipper96]

OK: The main mass of Fay is obviously heading southwest now, and apparently is not going to be picked up by the trough as forecast. I think she's going to be a TS again.

IMO, not gonna happen unless her COC, which is 90 mi N of NO heads south and somehow develops an inner core. Her mass of rain is definitely heading towards the GOM, but I don't think TD Fay is.

What worries me is the enormous size of Fay. 90m may not mean so much for a storm with a hollow middle a couple hundred miles wide still surrounded by intense linear bands. Those bands, once back in the Gulf, will be freed of friction. 1min sustained winds may not climb back to 45, but they could get pretty close in the Mobile to Pensacola region a day down the road.

Fay shows evidence of becoming a self-sustaining hybrid on-land-with-a-Gulf-feed system like Allison, only much bigger.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Fay is still steady moving S/SW on radar. She's deep into Louisiana now and is beginning to touch (the center of Fay) the northern suburbs of New Orleans in St. Tammany and Tangipahoa Parish.

[MGC]

Well, looking at the Slidell loop, it sure does appear that Fay is moving south. Also, there is a pretty good feeder band moving into Mobile Bay att. Yea, I would be shocked if Fay gets back over water and the NHC has to start cranking out advisories again. Go away Fay, I'm starting to worry about 94L and that GFDL run.....MGC

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Based surface obs I would say she is moving southward about 3 knots. I would place the LLC with surface obs backing near 30.6/89.5. Also you can see convection firing on the southern side of the system...In which case can help pull it toward it. We will see.

[SouthFLTropics]

The ghost of Fay continues to haunt the Southeast. Hopefully she won't call up the demons of 94L towards the US. She sure needs to get a move on and quick like too. I would think that the more she hangs around the more likely there is a weakness left for 94L.

SFT

[funster]

HPC believes Fay will be pulled to the Northeast eventually based on their precip forecasts: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-5.shtml

[stormy1970al]

The rain has begun!

[twister]

Edited to add:
Miss., Ala. & W Fla panhandle about to get feeder bands. Fay does appear to be moving southward. Geez.......go away Fay!!

http://www.wdsu.com/interactive-radar/index.html

[vbhoutex]

OK: The main mass of Fay is obviously heading southwest now, and apparently is not going to be picked up by the trough as forecast. I think she's going to be a TS again.

IMO, not gonna happen unless her COC, which is 90 mi N of NO heads south and somehow develops an inner core. Her mass of rain is definitely heading towards the GOM, but I don't think TD Fay is.

What worries me is the enormous size of Fay. 90m may not mean so much for a storm with a hollow middle a couple hundred miles wide still surrounded by intense linear bands. Those bands, once back in the Gulf, will be freed of friction. 1min sustained winds may not climb back to 45, but they could get pretty close in the Mobile to Pensacola region a day down the road.

Fay shows evidence of becoming a self-sustaining hybrid on-land-with-a-Gulf-feed system like Allison, only much bigger.

Interesting points you raise, but Fay is still a warm core system and really doesn't have much of a chance of becoming otherwise, imo. (I may not be exactly right in my thinking here, but I don't understand how she could become a hybrid right now). She has about 24 hours to do anything else she is going to do before she finally gets picked up and taken NE. I will agree that with the feeder system she does have the ability to have some stronger winds, especially in coastal areas that have storms coming in from the GOM, but there is no core for her to consolidate around and concentrate any of that energy.

I do not think Fay is moving S and neither does HPC in their latest advisory. What I am seeing on the radar is a COC that isnow elongating N&S with the Southern extent of that COC near the North shore of Lake Ponchatrain(sp?) and the Northrern extent near Newton, MS. This, imo, could give the illusion of a move S. when she is actually very near stationary.

[vbhoutex]

Based surface obs I would say she is moving southward about 3 knots. I would place the LLC with surface obs backing near 30.6/89.5. Also you can see convection firing on the southern side of the system...In which case can help pull it toward it. We will see.

Post those surface obs so we all can analyze what you think you are seeing please Matt.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Based surface obs I would say she is moving southward about 3 knots. I would place the LLC with surface obs backing near 30.6/89.5. Also you can see convection firing on the southern side of the system...In which case can help pull it toward it. We will see.

Post those surface obs so we all can analyze what you think you are seeing please Matt.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/cira/RAMM ... pical.html

Look at the surface obs on this. It shows them all around the system. You can see that they are showing a closed wind field centered around 30.6/89.5 west...With the northern one turning toward the east about 30.8 north.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

We will have to see what it does next, but the ob to the north just turned more out of the southeast.

[twister]

We will have to see what it does next, but the ob to the north just turned more out of the southeast.

If my eyes aren't deceiving me, Fay appears to be moving ever so slightly se. I can post a link if anyone wants to have a look. Fay is being a royal pain in the you know what. At least in my neck we haven't been inundated with rain.

[vbhoutex]

Based surface obs I would say she is moving southward about 3 knots. I would place the LLC with surface obs backing near 30.6/89.5. Also you can see convection firing on the southern side of the system...In which case can help pull it toward it. We will see.

Post those surface obs so we all can analyze what you think you are seeing please Matt.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/cira/RAMM ... pical.html

Look at the surface obs on this. It shows them all around the system. You can see that they are showing a closed wind field centered around 30.6/89.5 west...With the northern one turning toward the east about 30.8 north.

I see what you are talking about, but what I see looking at those obs agrees almost spot on with HPC's COC(31.3N, 90.0W) and what I think is a somewhat elongated COC.

[Stormcenter]

It's hard to argue with what this satellite loop is showing. Now whether or not it makes it into the GOM and amounts to anything more well only time will tell.



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir2.html

[SoupBone]

I have to think that the NHC knows full and well that writing off a storm before its time would be bad. There is just no way that they wouldn't have considered all of these options before moving on from Fay. Is it possible that Fays remnants could possibly make it back into the gulf and develop or are we just looking for something that isn't there? I'm not trolling just asking an honest question. What I'm MORE worried about is that Fay will leave a big hole for 94L to possibly come into if it develops into anything and reaches the central GOM.

[TSmith274]

We need to get Fay out of here so we can get a ridge to establish itself for 94L