SoupBone wrote:I have to think that the NHC knows full and well that writing off a storm before its time would be bad. There is just no way that they wouldn't have considered all of these options before moving on from Fay.
This has been a very unpredictable season so far, Soup; so far, only Bertha has behaved like a "normal" hurricane. Everything else (those storms which made it to the west) had multiple centers darting all over the place and making mincemeat of the models 36hr+.
Initially Fay was supposed to recurve into the open Atlantic.
Then she was supposed to recurve up the east coast and scare everybody before missing.
Then she was supposed to hit the Carolinas.
Then she was supposed to go along the north side the Greater Antilles to Bahamas.
Then she was supposed to plow over every big island and die.
Then she was supposed to run over Haiti into Florida.
Then she was supposed to go south of Cuba into the Gulf (and probably be scary).
Then she was supposed to run over Cuba and southern Florida to Carolinas.
Then she was supposed to run over Cuba up to Tampa.
Then she was supposed to run over Cuba up to northern Gulf (and probably be scary).
Then it was
back to Tampa across Florida to Carolinas.
Then is was
back to southern Florida to Carolinas.
Then she was supposed to cross Florida to Atlantic and hook back into Georgia.
Then she was supposed to cross Florida to Atlantic and hard left back into Gulf.
And...and...and....
Go all that?
(I still say the Fay was a minimal hurricane at two separate points: At landfall in Cuba, and NW of Lake O, for about two hours each time.)
