Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[rockyman]

Ok...also this is WAY WAY fast...has it almost to MObile by 54 hours, thast Saturday morning unstead of Monday morning!

Yeah...more in line with current NHC timing (but south of NHC track)...earlier, I mentioned my worries of this getting back in the Gulf quickly and leaving little time to prepare here on the Gulf Coast

[Ivanhater]

[dixiebreeze]

Fay is coming west:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/quikscat.php?station=cdrf1

[PTPatrick]

Well...good things with this track...it will be too close to land to do much other than cause rain, some wind, and a little coastal beach erosion. Now 50 mile more south and it might be a little worse. Either way I think this shakes out to be a pretty low key event for MS/AL/NWFL no matter how you slice it. I know at that angle surge isnt going to be an issue.

[Stormcenter]

The good news is in previous runs the GFS had Fay entirely in the GOM as track across from east to west. Now with later runs it is further north and basically inland as it skirts along.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

The GFS has Fay as far west as near New orleans then back east again!!

[Praxus]

I think its found a home. Earth's new 'red spot'

[TSmith274]

I don't remember who it was... but somebody said we'd have a better chance of winning the Powerball... twice... than Fay coming back across the N. GOM. I believe this was a met. I'm buying my tickets... this week and next week.

[cpdaman]

i think it was mr. derek ortt but i wasn't sure what he was refering to

by tommorrow afternoon we should know what the deal will be (wether she gets wet in the GOM or not)

[rockyman]

06z GFS--once again skirts the Gulf coast...system stalls off the FL/AL/MS coasts for almost 3 days...finally turning back NE and going inland around Pensacola

[KWT]

Yep rockman looks like yet another round of flooding problem would occur if the GFS is correct.

[attallaman]

So could this system eventually impact me here in Biloxi? Lots of rain and wind or is the system forecasted to pass to my north as of this morning's latest reports? Feedback appreciated.

[ronjon]

06Z UKMET has shifted south - almost due west through this 48 hr run. Offshore in the NE GOM.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cgi?time=2008082106&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[BigB0882]

This is looking more and more interesting for Louisiana, potentially. Of course, with this storm it will probably change 10 more times and somehow end up hitting the California coast.

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like the Consensus is moving south and over the northern GOM, this ain't be lookin good at tall!

[PTPatrick]

Well it would appear if she doesnt get moving soon she will be behind most of the models. And given that they seem to want to build the H SW even more as time go by, I suspect that would mean a more W movement from the start and thus more time over water.


PS latest NAM at 12z looks to be going a bit more south. Now looks to at least pass over a apalachee bay...

[Stormcenter]

Looks like the Consensus is moving south and over the northern GOM, this ain't be lookin good at tall!

All of these model outputs mean nothing because they ALL
continue to be wrong. She is still NOT moving. She will eventually
(hopefully) move (drift) wnw and then shoot off to the NE.

[Comanche]

Anyone going to post the GFS?? Please?

[srainhoutx]

Anyone going to post the GFS?? Please?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Dean4Storms]

12z GFS hugs the coast then inland around Mobile keeps it as a weak TS or TD.