92L NE Caribbean / Preparations / Observations / Web Cams

[cycloneye]

This thread will be for the members that may be affected by this system,whatever it may be in intensity,to post about the preparations in your area,if there are any web cams,and to post observations,radars and text discussions from your local NWS office.

[cycloneye]

From the San Juan AFD:

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 102025
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
425 PM AST SUN AUG 10 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD
INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL
HELP CREATING A MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION.
A TROPICAL WAVE NOW NEAR 62 WEST...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A SURGE OF SAHARAN DUST AND
DRIER AIR QUICKLY FOLLOWING THE TROPICAL WAVE. AN ACTIVE TROPICAL
WAVE LOCATED NOW NEAR 43 WEST IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THAT
THIS SYSTEM IS BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY...AND SOME DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE REGION...THEREBY
INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR VERY ACTIVE WEATHER THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK.

BY THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...BASED ON THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE...THE VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 43 WEST IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND BRING AN ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE REGION...
INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO HINT SEVERAL ACTIVE WAVES TO MOVE ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC AND APPROACH THE REGION DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL SOME WAYS OUT...AND MODELS
CONSISTENCY BECOMES DOUBTFUL IN THE LONG TERM...SO WILL CLOSELY
MONITOR...ESPECIALLY NOW THAT WE ARE NEARING THE ACTIVE PERIOD OF
THE HURRICANE SEASON WHERE THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE RIPE
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productview ... &version=0

[MiamiensisWx]

StormCarib updates:

http://stormcarib.com/

[Rincon]

Hopefully won't be used but here is my personal weather station and Live CAM on the west coast of Rincon. I hope i get 0 hits in the next few weeks.

http://www.rinconadventure.com/Weather/wxindex.php

Rincon

[knotimpaired]

Vieques weather can be observed live at our website http://www.playacofi.com.

In the event of a power outage we will have the generator running most of the time but the system has a solar panel so it keeps documenting the weather. For more info on our weather station visit http://www.weatherhawk.com

[cycloneye]

From the San Juan NWS Office Discussion:

DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER SHOWED ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS WITH A FEW AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST COAST OF PUERTO
RICO. AT THIS MOMENT THESE SHOWERS HAVE NOT GENERATED ANY
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS NOW
LOCATED BETWEEN THE ISLANDS OF ST THOMAS AND ST CROIX WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE WEST AND IT COULD BE AFFECTING THE EASTERN COAST OF PUERTO
RICO AT AROUND SUNRISE.

THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING PROMISE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING
ON THURSDAY AS AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECASTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION BETWEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH MOST
OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THIS WAVE HAVE DECREASE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MODELS SUGGEST FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING NEAR OUR
LOCAL FORECAST AREA BETWEEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY. CITIZEN
SHOULD MONITOR BOTH TROPICAL FEATURES AS WE BECOME CLOSER TO THE
PEAK OF THE TROPICAL SEASON.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productview ... &version=0

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 110857
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
457 AM AST MON AUG 11 2008

FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 48 WEST EARLY THIS
MORNING...WILL BRING A GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY TO THE LOCAL AREA. THE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
TROPICAL WAVE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
AT 15 TO 20 MPH. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/data/JSJ/RWSVI

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 111500
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1100 AM AST MON AUG 11 2008


FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK HOWEVER...EXPECT FAIRLY ACTIVE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...AS MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE NOW NEAR 48 WEST...WILL
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. AT THIS TIME...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAY. THEREFORE...RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL WAVE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

[Gustywind]

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/data/JSJ/RWSVI

[cycloneye]

From the San Juan NWS Office Discussion:

LATEST COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
INDUCED SURFACE REFLECTION MAY BRING AND INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT FOCUS OF ATTENTION REMAINS ON AN ACTIVE TROPICAL
WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON THURSDAY. THIS
WAVE...PRESENTLY NEAR 49W...APPEARS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED IN THE LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THIS WAVE TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES INTO AN ENVIRONMENT MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. EITHER
WAY...THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS ON THURSDAY AS THE WAVE
NEARS AND PASSES BY THE LOCAL AREA. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE...NEARING
30 WEST THIS AFTERNOON...ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FORMATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BOTH THESE TROPICAL
WAVES ARE BEING MONITORED CLOSELY BY LOCAL FORECASTERS AND THE
HURRICANE CENTER.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productview ... &version=0

[caribepr]

Many of my friends who live on boats here but are more or less seasonal visitors, are preparing to leave for Salinas over on the big island (a very good hurricane hole) either tomorrow a.m. or Wednesday depending on what the rest of today and early tomorrow bring.
Many of the year round liveaboards have cuddled up to the edge of the mangrove canal system, where they will go to their yearly pre-located spots. DRN (dept. of natural resources, DRN in spanish) doesn't allow them to move into the mangroves until a clear 24 hour warning has been called.

[knotimpaired]

MJ,

Lee and I visited the Salinas area for about a week last May and found it to be a great area and as most boaters know a great hurricane hole.

Anyone needing to tuck in somewhere, there is Salinas but also we have Ensenada Honda here at Vieques that is also a hurricane hole where Vieques boats will go. Everyone is welcome.

[caribepr]

Glad I bought trip insurance today...12 bucks to cover a flight that might not happen...not bad.

[cycloneye]

Summary from the NWS office in San Juan:

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE MOIST
AIR AHEAD OF AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE ANTILLES
APPROACHES. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.... BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND SQUALLY WEATHER. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS
WAVE TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TODAY OR WEDNESDAY. RESIDENTS
AND VISITORS IN PUERTO RICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... &version=0

[HURAKAN]

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR PUERTO RICO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
413 PM AST TUE AUG 12 2008

SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF PUERTO
RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE EXCEPTION WAS IN THE SOUTHWEST
SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND WHERE SKIES BECAME VARIABLY CLOUDY DUE TO
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WINDS WERE FROM THE
EAST TO NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS ALONG
THE COASTAL AREAS.

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLANDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH OVER
LAND AFTER SUNSET LEAVING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND AN APPROACHING
TROPICAL WAVE WILL GRADUAL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MOIST TROPICAL AIR AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS ESPECIALLY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IN
ADDITION...THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...AND THEREFORE ENHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THIS IN TURN WILL WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF URBAN
AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE TROPICAL
WAVE STILL HAS POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THEREFORE RESIDENTS AND VISITORS IN PUERTO RICO
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...MARINERS SHOULD GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF
17 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
WATER. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE.

[cycloneye]

Discussion from the San Juan NWS Office:

LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS...AS THE
STRONG TROPICAL WAVE (POSSIBLE TD)...BY THE TIME IT GETS HERE...
MOVE AND CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA MAY PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCHES
ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO. WE WILL KEEP MONITORING THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
CLOSER TO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
VISITORS AND RESIDENTS SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION FOR FURTHER
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HRS.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productview ... &version=0

[caribepr]

"The next few days" never held so much potential teeth grinding for me. My life here is ready, but I want to get on that plane!

[knotimpaired]

Well since 92L could not make up her mind I came over to the condo to at least get everything off the counters, lamps on the floor, everything away from the windows. I am not going to put the shutters up, most are 10' tall. That can wait for the handyman if and when they are needed.

3 sailboats and 2 powerboats have come in and tucked themselves behind Sealovers Marina. There is not much room for more since there are a handful that moor there regularly. I wish I could stay over here to watch the preparation (if any) but I want to be back on the morning ferry to continue to monitor the system and if needed start prepping our house over there for winds. The condo here in Fajardo is a piece of cake compared to the house in Vieques.

Vieques is our main home so that is where we will be with our dog and 6 cats as this passes. For Vieques weather, our personal weather station can be found at http://www.playacofi.com/weather.

[HURAKAN]

[msbee]

I'm trying to figure out too what to expect here in St. Maarten.
According to Hurakan's post and image, the NE Caribbean may be in the clear.
I hope we aren't too much in the clear though.
I hope 92L gives us some rain. We need it badly.