92L NE Caribbean / Preparations / Observations / Web Cams

[HURAKAN]

I'm trying to figure out too what to expect here in St. Maarten.
According to Hurakan's post and image, the NE Caribbean may be in the clear.
I hope we aren't too much in the clear though.
I hope 92L gives us some rain. We need it badly.

Even if 92L passes to the north, it should moisten the environment promoting the development of convection.

[lonelymike]

Yeah PR is in a drought no? Hope you guys get some rain there.

[cycloneye]

Yeah PR is in a drought no? Hope you guys get some rain there.

Not the sufficient amount to end the drought here.That is why I am praying for some rain from this.

[cycloneye]

From the San Juan NWS Office:

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AND REACH THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING ACROSS THE ISLAND. THE TROPICAL WAVE COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND
THEREFORE RESIDENTS AND VISITORS IN PUERTO RICO SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR ITS THE PROGRESS.

ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...MARINERS SHOULD GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF
17 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF THIS TROPICAL WAVE

[caribepr]

I just talked to the folks at Vieques Air Link (name of one of the small plane companies that fly out of Culebra) and asked what he thought about my 11:30 flight to make my 3 p.m flight. He said they make all their decisions based on the moment but that they are looking more at tomorrow afternoon and Friday for delays. He was so sweet...don't worry, don't worry. But I wish I was on the 7:30 now (we try to avoid sitting in the San Juan airport for hours, which is what happens when you have only two times to get out of here...well, 3 if you take the 6:30 ferry and a taxi)! One crack of lightning and forget it

[knotimpaired]

I crossed over on the 9:30 am ferry from Fajardo to Vieques. It was flat and we made it in 1 hr, 5 minutes thanks to the ferry "Vieques II" that is back in service.

There were 3 chainsaws being brought over by residents and they were all inspected for gas and oil prior to being able to board so some are in the prep mode. Most, if not all of our fishing fleet and sailboats remain at anchor in Isabel Segunda.

Vieques live weather can be found at http://www.playacofi.com/weather.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
414 PM AST WED AUG 13 2008

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE BAHAMAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN CONTROLLING MOST OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN FOR AT
LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 58 WEST HAS SHOWED SIGNALS OF REORGANIZATION
FOR THE PAST 5 TO 8 HOURS...ACCORDING TO IR AND VIS SATELLITE
PHOTOS. A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LOCATED NEAR
16.5 NORTH AND 58 WEST AS OF 1745Z. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...MOST
OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ACROSS THE NE QUADRANT OF THE
SURFACE LOW. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE
YESTERDAY...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WINDS COULD SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO WITHIN THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS THIS WAVE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

AT UPPER LEVELS...UPPER TROUGH LOCATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
HISPANIOLA...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...FAVORABLE ALOFT WEATHER
CONDITIONS COULD AID FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS THE LOCAL OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND ISOLATED SPOTS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO MAINLY DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY
AND SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY. THE MOST AFFECTED AREAS WERE THE FOLLOWING
MUNICIPALITIES...MARICAO...SOUTHERN LAS MARIAS...HORMIGUERO AND
MAYAGUEZ. ESTIMATED RADAR RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE PAST THREE
HOURS RANGED FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES. FOR THE REST OF THE
AREA...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED WITH NO PRECIPITATION RECORDED.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND LOCAL REGIONAL WATERS
BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY
NEAR 58 WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON MOVE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.
THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO FURTHER DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA.

VISITORS AND RESIDENTS OF ALL LOCAL ISLANDS SHOULD PAY CLOSE
ATTENTION FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS TO THE MOVEMENT AND
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. RAINFALL ESTIMATES AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAYS ARE THE
FOLLOWING...1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND 1 TO 3
INCHES OVER PUERTO RICO WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER INFORMATION AS NEW FORECAST PACKAGES WILL
REVEAL NEW DATA ABOUT THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES AT
LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

[msbee]

I feel like I am at the end of a yo yo watching this system

[cycloneye]

I feel like I am at the end of a yo yo watching this system

I know Barbara as this has been a rollercoaster wave.We may get some rain out of this as it will move closer to the northern islands.Hopefully nothing more than that.

[caribepr]

Well, I am READY as I can be. Just have to pull the dinghy out of the water in the morning and it's *please let me get off Culebra!*

[greels]

Msbee,

I prefer the term "waterboarding"......

And here I sit in the "waiting game"......not really knowing "what" will happen here in the T&C.

I was "supposed" to head over to Miami for a little time off "the rock", but then when I started watching this system several days ago, decided to not go.......

I am with the RC here on the Island and provide First Aid support at one of our shelters......should it have to open....plus all the other preparations we would have to make in terms of "readiness", A couple of weeks ago when I was really bored, I bundled up sandbags to hand out, if needed......I'm bundling up some stuff to send over to GT tomorrow :just in case"

And then there is our newly built home here on a canal......hopefully, the integrity of the building will not be put to the test.

[msbee]

good luck MJ.. wishing no rough seas for you.
have a good trip!

But, Luis, let's hope for some really good showers to help both our drought.

[caribepr]

I also hope for rain for dry us too...just no thunder and lightning!!

[greels]

No doubt,,,,we need rain here,,,

[msbee]

hi Greels
how are you?
none of us know what to expect.. it's a little worrisome.
you have a drought too, I guess.
we all need a relief from that but we do not need too much all at one time.
and it's hard to know how to prepare or if to prepare.
and our mets here aren't much help.
all they had to say was this:
A tropical wave was located along 58 degrees West late this afternoon and showed some signs of organization as deep convection has increased over the last couple of hours. Upper level winds are forecasted to become more conductive for tropical cyclone development during the next 24 to 48 hours. Nevertheless of the development, this system will spread shower and thunderstorm activity over the local region with an increase in winds and seas as it moves through the regional waters by Thursday and Friday.

Barbara from St. Maarten

[Gustywind]

good luck MJ.. wishing no rough seas for you.
have a good trip!

But, Luis, let's hope for some really good showers to help both our drought.

Yeah you can hope some good showers Barbara, because do not forget that you're in yellow alert since 5pm for strong showers and thunderstorms given the latest weather forecast of Meteo-France.
Friday should be a good weather action given their latest forecast...
http://www.meteo.gp/donnees/bulletin/vi ... ilance.php

[msbee]

Gusty
I know we are.
and I hope we get some good showers and nothing else.
...sure don't want any flash floods.
as I speak, we are getting a moderate rain shower..
but it was over before I finished typing

Barbara

[Gustywind]

Gusty
I know we are.
and I hope we get some good showers and nothing else.
...sure don't want any flash floods.
as I speak, we are getting a moderate rain shower..
but it was over before I finished typing

Barbara

Ok my friend glad to know that, if each season it was" only "showers thunderstorms and gustywinds it will be cool, hope nothing more than a perturbed weather of season Barbara with this feature i wish all the very best, you should experience nice showers . Us in Guadeloupe should have less more but showers added to locally some thunderstorms can be predicted. let's see what pan's out seems that 92L is getting a bit more organized with nice pockets of convection refiring ...
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1049 PM AST WED AUG 13 2008

.DISCUSSION...THE LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE...AND STRONGER NELY
FLOW...ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE HAS SHIFTED
ACROSS THE LEEWARDS THIS EVENING AND IS JUST ABOUT TO REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS ATTM. THESE FINE LINES OF SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WERE
MOVING WSW AT 18 KT AND ARE EXPECTED INTO THE E COAST OF PR AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE SAN JUAN AREA ABOUT 06Z/02 AM LOCAL.
INCREASING WEATHER WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY...AND THEN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...WITH WIND AND
PRECIP INTENSITY INCREASING THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. SELY FLOW BEHIND THE WAVE WILL
BRING ACTIVE WEATHER AFTER ITS PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST
SATURDAY MORNING.

THE LAST SEVERAL VISIBLE STLT IMAGES TODAY SHOWED SQUALLS AND ARC
CLOUDS PROPAGATING NWD OUT OF MUCH OF THE NORTHERN SEMI CIRCLE OF
THIS WAVE...SUGGESTING THAT SAL IS STILL INFLUENCING...AND HELPING
TO INHIBIT INTENSIFICATION. TOO...PULSES OF DEEP CNVTN CONTINUE TO
FLARE UP PERIODICALLY INVOF A MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...BUT
STLT DERIVED WINDS...SURFACE OBS...AND RECENT FULL AND PARTIAL
QUIKSCAT PASSES SUGGEST A LLVL CENTER CONTINUES A DEGREE OR TWO TO
THE SW OF THIS APPARENT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. SAL...ALBEIT
SOMEWHAT SHALLOW...APPEARS TO HAVE WRAPPED ALL THE WAY AROUND
THIS CIRCULATION...AND THE STRETCH OR TILT IN THE VERTICAL IS NOT
ALLOWING THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...DESPITE SEEMINGLY
IMPROVED UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS. THE LLVL CIRCULATION CENTER WILL
LIKELY MOVE ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...BUT IT
STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHETHER SIGNIFICANT CNVTN WILL ACCOMPANY
IT...OR REMAIN OFFSHORE AND OVER THE LOCAL ATLC WATERS. MODEL
TRAJECTORIES HAVE BEEN TRENDING CLOSER TO N COAST OF PR PAST
RUNS...IN PART BY NHC CENTER FIXES BEING FARTHER SOUTH. SO THIS
FEATURE REMAINS POISED TO BRING BENEFICIAL RAINS TO THE LOCAL
AREA...AND POSSIBLY SOME MODEST FLOODING IN ISOLATED AREAS...BUT
IS STILL NOT YET SHOWING SIGNS OF SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION OR
INTENSIFICATION. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...AND URGE ALL TO
PREPARE FOR A MODERATE RAIN EVENT...WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THE 25-35 KT
RANGE.

[cycloneye]

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1022 PM AST WED AUG 13 2008

PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WATERS

AMZ700-141030-
1022 PM AST WED AUG 13 2008

.SYNOPSIS FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WATERS...
A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES AT MIDNIGHT...WITH
A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 17 NORTH 59.6 WEST...WILL MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THURSDAY AND THEN WEST NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. ISOLATED SQUALLS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE LOCAL WATERS THURSDAY MORNING AND INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS TROPICAL WAVE STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO STRENGTHEN
INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.