WPAC: Tropical Storm Vongfong (12W) SSE of Japan

Chacor · #1 Postby **Chacor** » Sun Aug 10, 2008 8:56 pm

24.4N 138.7E.

Chacor · #2 Postby **Chacor** » Sun Aug 10, 2008 9:02 pm

Chacor · #3 Postby **Chacor** » Tue Aug 12, 2008 7:13 am

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 21N 137E WEST SLOWLY.

#4 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Aug 13, 2008 9:32 pm

It may become a tropical cyclone, but right now, it looks far from it.

Chacor · #5 Postby **Chacor** » Wed Aug 13, 2008 10:17 pm

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1004 HPA NEAR 24N 132E NNE 10 KT.

#6 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:55 am

Chacor · #7 Postby **Chacor** » Thu Aug 14, 2008 11:07 am

#8 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Aug 14, 2008 12:51 pm

RattleMan · #9 Postby **RattleMan** » Thu Aug 14, 2008 6:11 pm

This became TD12W per JTWC and a 30kt TD per JMA.

890
WWJP25 RJTD 141800
...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA
AT 28.4N 134.2E SEA SOUTH OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
...
---------

WTPN32 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140030Z AUG 08//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 28.2N 134.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 28.2N 134.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 30.4N 135.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 33.3N 139.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 35.9N 143.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 38.4N 149.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 28.7N 134.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 12W LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. COMPARISON OF AN EARLIER 140917Z AND A LATER
142055Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) HAS CLOSED OFF ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
BECOMING MUCH BETTER DEFINED. CONVECTION HAS CENTRALIZED AROUND
THE LLCC, AS WELL, WITH LIMITED BANDING FEATURES EVIDENT IN ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 141524Z TRMM MICROWAVE PASS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF TD 11W IS BASED ON DVORAK ANALYSES FROM PGTW AND
KNES RANGING FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THE AFOREMENTIONED 142055Z QUIKSCAT
PASS CONFIRMS THIS INTENSITY RANGE. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE, IN WATERS GREATER THAN 26 DEGREES CELSIUS,
AND UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT. A 200MB ANTICYCLONE IS PRO-
VIDING RADIAL OUTFLOW FOR THE SYSTEM, ALL THE WHILE SHIELDING THE
SYSTEM FROM VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. EVENTUALLY THIS ANTICYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO ERODE AS THE SYSTEM AND THE JET STREAM MERGE SLIGHTLY
AFTER TAU 24. THIS RENDEZVOUS WILL INCITE A WEAKENING TREND WHILE
THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER,
PRIOR TO TAU 24, SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED IN FAVORABLE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND UNDER IDEAL RADIAL OUTFLOW AND THE BUFFERING
OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BY THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 140030Z AUG 08 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 140030). REFER TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 11W WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

#10 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Aug 14, 2008 7:15 pm

Chacor · #11 Postby **Chacor** » Thu Aug 14, 2008 8:49 pm

WTPQ20 RJTD 150000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150000UTC 28.8N 134.3E POOR
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 160000UTC 31.3N 139.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE ENE 13KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Chacor · #12 Postby **Chacor** » Fri Aug 15, 2008 1:09 am

We should have TS Vongfong.

TCNA21 RJTD 150600
CCAA 15060 47644 NAMELESS 16302 11354 12244 225// 90415=

Chacor · #13 Postby **Chacor** » Fri Aug 15, 2008 1:11 am

JTWC:

TPPN10 PGTW 150606

A. TROPICAL STORM 12W (S OF JAPAN)

B. 15/0530Z

C. 30.1N

D. 135.4E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T3.5/3.5/D2.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS (15/0530Z)

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

15A/PBO BANDING EYE/ANMTN. DT DERIVED FROM .80 WRAP ON LOG
SPIRAL. PT IN AGREEMENT. MET ONLY SUPPORTS 2.5 AND 24-HOUR
CONSTRAINTS WOULD LIMIT THE SYSTEM TO 3.0. DUE TO RAPID
DEVELOPMENT AND CLEAR CUT DT AND PT, CONSTRAINTS BROKEN FOR
FINAL-T. FINAL-T IS STILL WITHIN 1.0 OF MET FOR RAPID DEVELOPER.

BRANDON

Chacor · #14 Postby **Chacor** » Fri Aug 15, 2008 1:17 am

This is old, but whoa.

Chacor · #15 Postby **Chacor** » Fri Aug 15, 2008 2:25 am

WTPQ20 RJTD 150600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0811 VONGFONG (0811) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150600UTC 30.2N 135.4E FAIR
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 160600UTC 32.6N 141.2E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE 14KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 170600UTC 36.9N 152.3E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Chacor · #16 Postby **Chacor** » Fri Aug 15, 2008 4:49 am

WTPQ20 RJTD 150900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0811 VONGFONG (0811)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150900UTC 30.5N 135.9E FAIR
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 160900UTC 33.4N 142.3E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE 15KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 170600UTC 36.9N 152.3E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Chacor · #17 Postby **Chacor** » Fri Aug 15, 2008 8:51 am

WTPQ20 RJTD 151200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0811 VONGFONG (0811)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151200UTC 30.9N 136.7E FAIR
MOVE ENE 13KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 161200UTC 34.4N 144.7E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE 20KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 171200UTC 38.3N 153.4E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Chacor · #18 Postby **Chacor** » Fri Aug 15, 2008 8:36 pm

WTPQ20 RJTD 160000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0811 VONGFONG (0811)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160000UTC 32.8N 140.8E FAIR
MOVE ENE 19KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 60NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 170000UTC 37.0N 150.4E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE 24KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 180000UTC 43.5N 164.0E 210NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Chacor · #19 Postby **Chacor** » Sat Aug 16, 2008 8:24 am

Up to 40 kts.

849
WTPQ20 RJTD 161200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0811 VONGFONG (0811)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161200UTC 34.6N 145.4E FAIR
MOVE ENE 20KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 60NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 171200UTC 40.6N 157.6E 85NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Chacor · #20 Postby **Chacor** » Sat Aug 16, 2008 9:18 pm

WTPQ20 RJTD 170000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0811 VONGFONG (0811)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170000UTC 37.7N 151.3E FAIR
MOVE NE 30KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 60NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 180000UTC 44.2N 165.5E 130NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

WPAC: Tropical Storm Vongfong (12W) SSE of Japan

WPAC: Tropical Storm Vongfong (12W) SSE of Japan

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