Ex Invest 93L in Central Atlantic

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

A circulation seems to be present.

[HURAKAN]

There appears to be a circulation or a very sharp trough present. The buoy to the left has winds from the NE and the buoy to the right has winds from the SE.

[HURAKAN]

There is a circulation. We need to keep an eye on the area of t-storms.

[RL3AO]

That is pretty interesting. This one might sneak up on us. Its at that perfect latitude.

[HURAKAN]

BEGIN
NHC
invest_al932008.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200808150959
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 93, 2008, DB, O, 2008081112, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL932008
AL, 93, 2008081012, , BEST, 0, 103N, 232W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2008081018, , BEST, 0, 104N, 248W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2008081100, , BEST, 0, 105N, 263W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2008081106, , BEST, 0, 107N, 276W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2008081112, , BEST, 0, 110N, 290W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 35, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 93, 2008081118, , BEST, 0, 115N, 300W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 35, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 93, 2008081200, , BEST, 0, 120N, 308W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 35, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 93, 2008081206, , BEST, 0, 126N, 314W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 35, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 93, 2008081212, , BEST, 0, 133N, 320W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 35, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 93, 2008081218, , BEST, 0, 143N, 324W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 200, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 93, 2008081300, , BEST, 0, 151N, 331W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 200, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 93, 2008081306, , BEST, 0, 157N, 340W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2008081312, , BEST, 0, 161N, 350W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 93, 2008081318, , BEST, 0, 156N, 369W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2008081400, , BEST, 0, 147N, 388W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2008081406, , BEST, 0, 142N, 408W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2008081412, , BEST, 0, 138N, 429W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2008081418, , BEST, 0, 138N, 441W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2008081500, , BEST, 0, 140N, 453W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2008081506, , BEST, 0, 143N, 464W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

[KWT]

Qscat shows any center is further south then the best track would show, interesting stuff and now past 45W below 15N, just wonder whether it could prove to be closer call then we first thought...

[HURAKAN]

This one becomes more of a menace now than it was yesterday as it was expected to organize and possibly turn away from the Caribbean and North America. Now that it's weak and won't develop in the short term it means it will travel further west before possibly encountering more favorable conditions and having the possibility to develop.

KWT, I said it two days ago.

[HURAKAN]

Strong convection associated with 93L.

[KWT]

Yep that becomes even more the case if the circulation Qscat has shown actually is the center, doesn't look like its got bad conditions either for now anyway.

[HURAKAN]

15/0615 UTC 14.5N 47.1W T1.0/1.0 93L -- Atlantic Ocean

Already 1.0

[RL3AO]

Just looking at the first visible, it probably meets the definition of a tropical depression. Looks like a busy day today.

[HURAKAN]

Just looking at the first visible, it probably meets the definition of a tropical depression. Looks like a busy day today.

Agree 100%. Looks pretty organized in the visible loops. The next TWO should be interesting.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE CURVES FROM 20N45W TO 16N47W...
AND SOUTHWARD ALONG 47W. IT IS MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.
A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 45W AND 49W. ANY DEVELOPMENT IN ORDER
TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR
DURING THE SYSTEM'S WESTWARD MOVEMENT.

[KWT]

Low pressure appears to be south of the convective blob, probably another system that looks more organised then what it actually is...

[HURAKAN]

Low pressure appears to be south of the convective blob, probably another system that looks more organised then what it actually is...

Very likely. I'm getting used to "if it appears like a cyclone in the Atlantic, it probably isn't!"

[KWT]

Yeah tell me about, still I suppose you get used to it.

Still there does appear to be at least a very sharp trough at lower levels near 12N which is a reasonable start, esp if convection can line form nearer it.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 151142
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER PUERTO RICO. WHILE THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...IT DOES NOT YET
APPEAR TO HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...
ALTHOUGH WHEN AND WHERE A DEPRESSION MIGHT FORM IS UNCERTAIN...IN
PART DUE TO POTENTIAL INTERACTIONS WITH THE LAND MASS OF
HISPANIOLA. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER PORTIONS
OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...THE TURKS AND
CAICOS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON SATURDAY. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. INTERESTS
IN THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE...THAT IS LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE.. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB



Back up to Orange.

[HURAKAN]

15/1145 UTC 15.0N 48.6W T1.0/1.0 93L -- Atlantic Ocean

[cycloneye]

12z Best track.

AL, 93, 2008081512, , BEST, 0, 149N, 483W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[HURAKAN]

Today we may see some mention of possible RECON for tomorrow or the next day. The system is already very close to 50W and still a bit south of 15N. Lesser Antilles need to keep an eye on it.