Tropical Storm Fay RECON Discussions

[KWT]

Are we on 3hr recon fixes yet or still at 6hr?

[HURAKAN]

Are we on 3hr recon fixes yet or still at 6hr?

I heard that 3 hr fixes were for hurricanes, in the case of TS, 6 hr fixes apply.

[pojo]

Are we on 3hr recon fixes yet or still at 6hr?

I heard that 3 hr fixes were for hurricanes, in the case of TS, 6 hr fixes apply.

we are on 3 hrlys..... because of the landfalling system and the hurricane possibility.

[pojo]

You'd think recon could fly out of somewhere closer to the storm, like Homestead, on nights like this....will take a while for them to get there from Biloxi and I don't have the caffeine IV to stay up tonight - gotta save it for tomorrow night LOL

homestead is a potential place, but since it will be impacted we are staying put in Biloxi.....

[pojo]

The next Air Force plane departs at 8 AM EDT:

TROPICAL STORM FAY
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. 18/1500,1800,2100Z
B. AFXXX 1706A FAY
C. 18/12OOZ
D. 23.7N 81.7W
E. 18/1400Z TO 18/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

3 hrlys

[Canelaw99]

You'd think recon could fly out of somewhere closer to the storm, like Homestead, on nights like this....will take a while for them to get there from Biloxi and I don't have the caffeine IV to stay up tonight - gotta save it for tomorrow night LOL

homestead is a potential place, but since it will be impacted we are staying put in Biloxi.....

I remember you guys flying out of here a couple of years ago for one of the storms that was headed for the Gulf Coast. I just wanted them to hurry up last night and get there LOL I was getting tired

[UKane]

Fay looks like shes stalled.... although I can't tell well...

Also...The computer models continue to show an unusual amount of disagreement about the longer term path of Fay. The official NHC forecast follows the GFDL and HWRF models, which takes Fay northwards through the Florida Peninsula. However, the latest runs of these models now predict Fay will emerge off the east coast of Florida, restrengthen a bit to a 60-70 mph tropical storm, then make landfall Wednesday along the Georgia/South Carolina coast. This solution assumes that the trough of low pressure turning Fay northward will be strong and enough and be moving slow enough to pull Fay all the way northwards into the U.S.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Question: Are those 62 and 63kt SMFR winds?

192600 2524N 08009W 8441 01551 0121 +120 +120 143053 056 063 029 00
192630 2524N 08011W 8432 01557 0120 +120 +120 139050 051 062 035 00

[RL3AO]

Question: Are those 62 and 63kt SMFR winds?

192600 2524N 08009W 8441 01551 0121 +120 +120 143053 056 063 029 00
192630 2524N 08011W 8432 01557 0120 +120 +120 139050 051 062 035 00

Yeah. Might be a little high though considering the heavy rainfall they were in.

[pojo]

This is interesting guys.... AF309 is in Biloxi on the flight line....

AF300 is flying.......

its confusing everyone in the squadron.

[RL3AO]

If you guys are confused, then I won't even try to understand it.

[pojo]

If you guys are confused, then I won't even try to understand it.

I know for a fact it AF300... I preflighted that aircraft for the flight......

AF309 is sitting on the flight line..... there is some kind of error with the SATCOM.

[HurricaneHunter914]

SMFR winds support 65 mph winds.

[Extremeweatherguy]

URNT15 KNHC 190111
AF309 2006A FAY HDOB 23 20080819
010200 2505N 08121W 8423 01487 9995 +175 +140 164038 040 999 999 03
010230 2505N 08123W 8432 01475 9992 +174 +140 164038 039 999 999 03
010300 2505N 08125W 8428 01478 9991 +175 +140 168035 037 999 999 03
010330 2505N 08126W 8432 01476 9991 +175 +140 172033 034 999 999 03
010400 2504N 08128W 8428 01481 9992 +175 +140 175032 033 999 999 03
010430 2504N 08130W 8428 01478 9991 +173 +140 174030 031 999 999 03
010500 2503N 08132W 8439 01470 9989 +177 +140 176027 029 999 999 03
010530 2503N 08133W 8419 01486 9983 +182 +140 176026 027 999 999 03
010600 2503N 08135W 8434 01472 9981 +188 +140 188026 027 999 999 03
010630 2503N 08137W 8427 01475 9975 +192 +140 194023 023 999 999 03
010700 2503N 08139W 8432 01466 9964 +205 +140 188023 024 999 999 03
010730 2503N 08140W 8426 01472 9966 +200 +140 191018 020 999 999 03
010800 2503N 08142W 8428 01470 9968 +195 +140 194017 018 999 999 03
010830 2503N 08144W 8431 01467 9968 +195 +140 196018 020 999 999 03
010900 2504N 08146W 8426 01477 9971 +201 +140 180019 020 999 999 03
010930 2504N 08147W 8433 01467 9977 +191 +140 160014 017 999 999 03
011000 2504N 08149W 8432 01463 9966 +194 +140 145009 012 999 999 03
011030 2504N 08151W 8425 01471 9967 +194 +140 120004 006 999 999 03
011100 2503N 08153W 8435 01461 9970 +189 +140 029004 006 999 999 03
011130 2502N 08154W 8430 01469 9975 +185 +140 358009 009 999 999 03
$$


No change in pressure.

No change in pressure? Doesn't that highlighted observation indicate 996.4mb? If so, then that would be 1-2mbs lower.

[Recurve]

11 pm advisory says plane found 995mb

[Chris_in_Tampa]

NOAA plane on last two center passes descended to 5,000 feet. It is now back up to about 12,000 feet.

[Cyclenall]

When and if Fay makes it back over water, recon missions will continue right? What are they preparing right now? This could be crucial in finding how fast it's intensifying.

[pojo]

When and if Fay makes it back over water, recon missions will continue right? What are they preparing right now? This could be crucial in finding how fast it's intensifying.

oh yes.

[HURAKAN]

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT TUE 19 AUGUST 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z AUGUST 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-080

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM FAY
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 20/1200,1500,1800Z
B. AFXXX 2306A FAY
C. 20/0915Z
D. 28.9N 80.6W
E. 20/1100Z TO 20/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 20/2100,21/0000,0300Z
B. AFXXX 2406A FAY
C. 20/1815Z
D. 29.3N 80.5W
E. 20/2000Z TO 21/0300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 73
A. 21/0600,0900,1200Z
B. AFXXX 2506A FAY
C. 21/0315Z
D. 29.7N 80.7W
E. 21/0500Z TO 21/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[KWT]

3hr missions I see, must be expecting this to be a hurricane I suppose.