Tropical Storm Fay RECON Discussions

[cycloneye]

Plane decending to operational altitud.

[txwatcher91]

I think they will find a 45mph tropical storm, but the pressure will drop while they are in it IMO to below 1000mb. Will be interesting to see what they find.

[deltadog03]

40kt TS with 1006mb

[cpdaman]

40kt TS with 1006mb

that's a guess , right?

[deltadog03]

ya

[KWT]

May only find winds high enough to support 40kts but who knows, pressure may go up as well.

[cpdaman]

hopefully they fly thru the center this time

they look to be WSW as of 130 observation set.

edit 150 obs set shows 1006 mb appears they flew just south of center, but barely (.1/.2 degrees south)

[wxman57]

The plane is just NW of the center now - 5-10 kts winds. Peak FL wind 14 kts NW of the center. Not much NW-SW.

[cycloneye]

Minmal pressure recorded at first pass was 1006 mbs.

[cpdaman]

The plane is just NW of the center now - 5-10 kts winds. Peak FL wind 14 kts NW of the center. Not much NW-SW.

do they have any legal issues flying more NE along cuban coast (i.e sampling the "stronger" side of the storm)

[wxman57]

The plane is just NW of the center now - 5-10 kts winds. Peak FL wind 14 kts NW of the center. Not much NW-SW.

do they have any legal issues flying more NE along cuban coast (i.e sampling the "stronger" side of the storm)

Probably. They may or may not have permission from Cuba to fly near the coast. SE side is supposed to have strong winds in those squalls. Plane is finding FL winds 25-30 kts. That's not supportive of a TS.

[cycloneye]

URNT12 KNHC 171818
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062008
A. 17/18:11:10Z
B. 20 deg 42 min N
079 deg 46 min W
C. NA mb 1473 m
D. 30 kt
E. 270 deg 47 nm
F. 040 deg 023 kt
G. 274 deg 076 nm
H. 1006 mb
I. 16 C/ 1504 m
J. 18 C/ 1473 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 1306A FAY OB 07
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 43 KT SE QUAD 18:07:40 Z


43kts in the SE Quadrant.

[pojo]

The plane is just NW of the center now - 5-10 kts winds. Peak FL wind 14 kts NW of the center. Not much NW-SW.

do they have any legal issues flying more NE along cuban coast (i.e sampling the "stronger" side of the storm)

Probably. They may or may not have permission from Cuba to fly near the coast. SE side is supposed to have strong winds in those squalls. Plane is finding FL winds 25-30 kts. That's not supportive of a TS.

Because Fay is impacting Cuba, we have a 'storm' clearance meaning we can get inside of the 32NM Cuban ADIZ (32NM is the cushion set up from the US Gov't). We were talking with Havana Center while we were flying yesterday... and so is today's aircraft.

[RL3AO]

Lookie where recon went on their way home.

[canetracker]

Very Interesting! They flew right over Cuba.

[cycloneye]

pojo explained all about this at her post above.

[Canelaw99]

You'd think recon could fly out of somewhere closer to the storm, like Homestead, on nights like this....will take a while for them to get there from Biloxi and I don't have the caffeine IV to stay up tonight - gotta save it for tomorrow night LOL

[cpdaman]

if only they left two hours earlier i bet she got down to about 995 65 or so right about NOW

[cycloneye]

The next Air Force plane departs at 8 AM EDT:

TROPICAL STORM FAY
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. 18/1500,1800,2100Z
B. AFXXX 1706A FAY
C. 18/12OOZ
D. 23.7N 81.7W
E. 18/1400Z TO 18/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[Chris_in_Tampa]

There is a plane still out there.



30 second sustained winds of 58 knots at 5,000 foot flight level, gusting (10 second) to 61 knots.

Highest SFMR estimated surface winds might indicate the storm might be about about 5 mph stronger than the current 50 mph.