WPAC: TY Nuri (0812/13W) E of Philippines

[HURAKAN]

Is it possible to make a larger cone of possibilities?

[Chacor]

The JTWC's cone includes wind radii.
http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/legend/warning.html

[Chacor]

Big jump from 45 kts to 60 kts. Now a severe TS.

WTPQ20 RJTD 181200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0812 NURI (0812) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181200UTC 16.2N 130.2E FAIR
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 150NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 191200UTC 17.5N 124.4E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 201200UTC 19.2N 121.0E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 211200UTC 21.0N 118.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

[Chacor]

Nuri is looking really good. Big burst of convection. JTWC 12z has a major shift in forecast and expects it to clip northern Luzon and track west of Taiwan into eastern China. Also now upgraded to Typhoon 13W.

[Harry Cane]

JMA is putting the track in the general direction of southern China.
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/0812l.html

[Chacor]

WDPN31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 13W WARNING NR 07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. THE SYSTEM WAS UPGRADED TO A TYPHOON AT 18/12Z BASED ON IMPROVED
CONSOLIDATION, TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING AND A DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE ON THE 180647Z TMI 37H IMAGE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A STRENGTHENING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CENTER PROVIDING IMPROVED
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, PARTICULARLY OVER THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST QUA-
DRANT...POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS REMAINED WEAK BUT HAS NOT PREVENTED THE
SYSTEM FROM RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING (30 KNOTS) OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
TYPHOON (TY) 13W HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK QUICKLY WESTWARD. IN GENERAL,
THE DYNAMIC MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A STRONGER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AND A WEAKER MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS.
CONSEQUENTLY, THE MODEL TRACKERS HAVE SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY WEST
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE ARE MORE MODEL AIDS
AVAILABLE TO INCLUDE SUPERIOR PERFORMERS LIKE THE ECMWF MODEL.
B. TY 13W CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
THE 18/00Z 500MB ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A HIGH CENTERED OVER
OKINAWA WITH A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN
CHINA. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A STRONG RIDGE
MAINTAINING WITH THE MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE FILLING AND TRACKING
OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE KOREAN PENINSULA. RIDGING IS EVIDENT OVER
CENTRAL CHINA WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE NEAR SHANGHAI. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
POSITION AND MOTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGH
END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS DUE TO THE
IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THE FORECAST TRACK WAS SHIFTED WEST OF TAIWAN SINCE THE PREVIOUS
WARNING.
B. THIS SHIFT IS BASED ON A NUMBER OF FACTORS. THE PRIMARY REASON
IS THAT THE STR HAS REMAINED STRONG AND CONTINUES TO DRIVE THE
SYSTEM QUICKLY WESTWARD. ADDITIONALLY, THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH IS
FILLING AND IS MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE STR. THE MODEL FIELDS
ARE DEPICTING A STRONG STR MAINTAINING THROUGH AT LEAST TAU 48
AND THE ONLY MODELS EAST OF TAIWAN ARE THE POOREST PERFORMERS
STATISTICALLY THUS FAR. PLUS NOGAPS SHOWS CLEAR PROBLEMS WITH
EXCESSIVE, FALSE INTERACTION WITH A MIDLATITUDE SURFACE TROUGH
WHICH IS CAUSING A SHARP POLEWARD TURN AFTER TAU 72. TY 13W IS
FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72.
THE BULK OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST
AND THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS. TY
13W IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 36 WITH FURTHER
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION UNLIKELY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION.
IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AFTER TAU 36, SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM
TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY OR MAINTAIN INTENSITY.
C. THERE IS A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST DUE
TO DIFFERENCES IN HOW EACH MODEL HANDLES THE WEAKENING OF THE STR.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS AND TC-LAPS, ALL THE OTHER MODELS INDIC-
ATE RECURVATURE WEST OF TAIWAN WITH THE RIDGE DEPICTED STRONGER AND
MAINTAINING LONGER NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. AN EXAMINATION OF NOGAPS
SLP FIELDS SHOWS EXCESSIVE INTERACTION OF THE VORTEX WITH A MIDLATIT-
UDE TROUGH THEREFORE THE TRACKER IS SUSPECT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
TY 13W WILL TRACK ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THAN THE CURRENT
FORECAST REFLECTS. TY 13W SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CHINA COAST NEAR TAU 96.
FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 181500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0812 NURI (0812)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181500UTC 16.6N 129.2E FAIR
MOVE W 17KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 150NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 191500UTC 17.5N 124.2E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 201200UTC 19.2N 121.0E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 211200UTC 21.0N 118.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

[senorpepr]

ZCZC 727
WTPQ20 RJTD 181800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0812 NURI (0812) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181800UTC 16.8N 128.4E FAIR
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 191800UTC 18.5N 123.6E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 201800UTC 20.3N 120.4E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 211800UTC 22.3N 118.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =
NNNN

[CrazyC83]

URPA12 PGUA 182318
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 18/23:18:50Z
B. 17 deg 01 min N
127 deg 00 min E
C. 700 mb 2901 m
D. 69 kt
E. 217 deg 10 nm
F. 318 deg 58 kt
G. 221 deg 17 nm
H. EXTRAP 978 mb
I. 7 C / 3038 m
J. 14 C / 3055 m
K. 7 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 0 nm
P. AF306 0813W NURI OB 25
MAX FL WIND 75 KT SE QUAD 21:32:40Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
***** preliminary ******

Category 1 storm - 1-min winds likely 70 kt.

[Chacor]

Hints of an eye.

[alan1961]

i started a thread for a possible storm/typhoon event for the olympics..is typhoon Nuri destined for there do you think?

[alan1961]

could someone delete this please..dont know why i did this..probably been a long day with that madam fay

[CrazyC83]

URPA12 PGUA 182350
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 18/23:18:50Z
B. 17 deg 01 min N
127 deg 00 min E
C. 700 mb 2901 m
D. 69 kt
E. 217 deg 11 nm
F. 318 deg 58 kt
G. 221 deg 17 nm
H. 976 mb
I. 8 C / 3048 m
J. 16 C / 3048 m
K. 7 C / NA
L. closed
M. C32

[Chacor]

Crazy, I started a recon thread for Nuri which is a bit farther down in the forum.

[Chacor]

URPA12 PGUA 182350
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 18/23:18:50Z
B. 17 deg 01 min N
127 deg 00 min E
C. 700 mb 2901 m
D. 69 kt
E. 217 deg 11 nm
F. 318 deg 58 kt
G. 221 deg 17 nm
H. 976 mb
I. 8 C / 3048 m
J. 16 C / 3048 m
K. 7 C / NA
L. closed
M. C32

976 mbar at 2318z by recon but JMA went 965 hPa. Hmm...

[Harry Cane]

I don't know but looking at the latest sat images, Nuri seems to be well set for west northwestward track maybe and landing much closer to southern china. I doubt the mid-latitude trough can weaken the STR enough to move Nuri poleward.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Eye clearly popping through now on satellite. CWB are issuing 3 hoursly detailed warnings now due to the threat to Taiwan. Hong Kong certainly needs to keep an eye on this. Unbelievabley, HKO have not updated their forecast page since 8pm local time last night.

[Chacor]

Talk about bombing...30 kt increase/37 hPa decrease in 24 hours, which is just short of rapid intensification.

WTPQ20 RJTD 190600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0812 NURI (0812)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190600UTC 17.6N 125.5E FAIR
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 210NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 200600UTC 18.9N 121.6E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 210600UTC 20.4N 118.7E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 220600UTC 22.5N 117.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

[Typhoon Hunter]

Microwave imagery starting to look more ominous too. Looks like Nuri will just miss northern Luzon which is bad news for China I guess:

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 190900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0812 NURI (0812)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190900UTC 17.8N 124.8E FAIR
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 210NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 200900UTC 19.3N 120.6E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 210600UTC 20.4N 118.7E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 220600UTC 22.5N 117.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =