Tropical Depression Fay HPC Advisories

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Re: Tropical Storm Fay Advisories=11 PM Discussion

#81 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 21, 2008 10:02 pm

Another late releasing discussion.

WTNT41 KNHC 220300
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2008

FAY HAS STILL REFUSED TO DECIDEDLY BEGIN MOVING WESTWARD AS WE AND
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING
WESTWARD...WITH THE CENTER LOCATED JUST INLAND FROM THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST. THE OVERALL APPEARANCE IN RADAR IMAGERY HAS
DEGRADED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT WSR-88D
VELOCITIES SUGGEST THAT SURFACE WINDS OVER WATER TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CENTER REMAIN AS STRONG AS ABOUT 50 KT...ALTHOUGH THAT
RADAR FEATURE HAS BEEN STEADILY SHRINKING.

EVEN THOUGH WE SAID THIS LAST NIGHT...AND IT DID NOT HAPPEN...ALL OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT FAY SHOULD START TRULY MOVING
WESTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THAT RIDGE SHOULD KEEP FAY ON
A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PATH DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK HAS NOT CHANGED TOO MUCH SINCE THE
LAST CYCLE...SO THE OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS ALONG THAT OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...TAKING FAY ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST.
SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF AND HWRF CONTINUE TO FORECAST A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF...WHILE THE
GFS...GFDL...AND UKMET FORECAST FAY TO REMAIN INLAND OVER THE
PANHANDLE. LATER...AT 3 TO 5 DAYS...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS
ANOTHER SLOWDOWN AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
BLOCKS FAY'S FORWARD PROGRESS AGAIN. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK SHOWS
ESSENTIALLY NO MOTION BEYOND 72 HOURS.

THE EXACT TRACK COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HOW STRONG FAY IS
AFTER CROSSING THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. IF THE MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACKS ARE CORRECT AND FAY SPENDS A GOOD BIT OF TIME
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF...IT COULD RESTRENGTHEN BEYOND
24 HOURS...BUT IF THE OPPOSITE OCCURS AND IT NEVER EMERGES BACK
OVER WATER...PERMANENT WEAKENING TO A DEPRESSION COULD HAPPEN
WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SINCE THE OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS ALONG
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST...AND USING THE INTENSITY MODEL
CONSENSUS AS GUIDANCE...THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS
FAY AS A BORDERLINE TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 48 HOURS...REQUIRING THE
ISSUANCE OF NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST.

REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0300Z 29.3N 81.4W 50 KT
12HR VT 22/1200Z 29.4N 82.3W 40 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 23/0000Z 29.6N 83.7W 35 KT...OVER GULF OF MEXICO
36HR VT 23/1200Z 30.0N 85.3W 35 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 24/0000Z 30.4N 86.7W 35 KT...NEAR COAST
72HR VT 25/0000Z 31.0N 88.5W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 26/0000Z 31.2N 89.0W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 27/0000Z 31.5N 89.5W 25 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER KNABB
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Re: Tropical Storm Fay Advisories

#82 Postby Brent » Fri Aug 22, 2008 12:53 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008

...FAY MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM ARIPEKA NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO INDIAN PASS...AND A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF INDIAN PASS
WESTWARD TO DESTIN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SEBASTIAN INLET
FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER AT THE BORDER BETWEEN
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.8 WEST OR ABOUT
50 MILES...80 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA. THIS
POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 30 MILES...50 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF OCALA
FLORIDA.

FAY IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...8 KM/HR. FAY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY...AND MOVE NEAR
OR OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...80 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS...BUT FAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM INTO
SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...
280 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND SOUTHEASTERN
ALABAMA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL
AREAS OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN OUTER RAIN BANDS OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA.
ISOLATED STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 20 TO 30 INCHES HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE EAST CENTRAL COASTAL AREAS OF
FLORIDA.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTER OF FAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...AND SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA.

REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...29.4 N...81.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: Tropical Storm Fay Advisories

#83 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 22, 2008 6:41 am

WTNT31 KNHC 221140
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008

...FAY CONTINUES SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM ARIPEKA NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO INDIAN PASS...AND A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF INDIAN PASS
WESTWARD TO DESTIN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SEBASTIAN INLET
FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER AT THE BORDER BETWEEN
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.4 WEST OR JUST WEST OF
GAINESVILLE FLORIDA. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 50 MILES...80
KM...NORTHEAST OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
CROSSING THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY...THEN MOVE NEAR OR
OVER THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...70
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT FAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM
INTO SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. SEVERAL STATIONS IN THE
JACKSONVILLE AREA HAVE CONTINUED TO REPORT WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55
MPH...70 TO 90 KM/HR...DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTER OF FAY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE FLORIDA
GULF COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.

OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA IN OUTER RAIN BANDS
ASSOCIATED WITH FAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA...SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...29.6 N...82.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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#84 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Aug 22, 2008 9:40 am

796
WTNT41 KNHC 221439
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008

FAY HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. IT
HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE BANDS REMOVED
FROM THE CENTER PRIMARILY OVER WATER. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
CONTINUES WELL ESTABLISHED. BASED ON NWS DOPPLER RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN TO 40
KNOTS. THE INTERACTION WITH LAND WILL CAUSE FAY TO WEAKEN BUT
BECAUSE A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
WATER...FAY COULD MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS.

THE CENTER OF FAY HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT
4 KNOTS AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN IS NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE
ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL MODELS. THEREFORE...FAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 3
DAYS. THEREAFTER...STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND
FAY COULD BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTHWARD. BY THEN...FAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
A REMNANT LOW.

REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/1500Z 29.6N 82.7W 40 KT
12HR VT 23/0000Z 29.7N 83.5W 40 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 23/1200Z 30.0N 85.0W 35 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 24/0000Z 30.3N 86.5W 35 KT
48HR VT 24/1200Z 30.6N 88.0W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 25/1200Z 31.0N 89.5W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 26/1200Z 31.5N 90.0W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 27/1200Z 32.5N 89.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

795
WTNT31 KNHC 221439
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008

...FAY STILL PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
EXTENDED WESTWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF OF MEXICO COAST TO
DESTIN...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM WEST OF
DESTIN TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF
FLAGLER BEACH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM ARIPEKA NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO DESTIN...AND FROM
FLAGLER BEACH NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER AT THE BORDER BETWEEN
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF DESTIN TO THE
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.7 WEST OR ABOUT 40
MILES... 70 KM...NORTHEAST OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
CROSSING THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY...THEN MOVE NEAR OR
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. SEVERAL STATIONS OVER NORTHEAST
FLORIDA ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...70 TO
90 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTER OF FAY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE FLORIDA
GULF COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.

OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA IN OUTER RAIN BANDS
ASSOCIATED WITH FAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...29.6 N...82.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Re: Tropical Storm Fay Advisories

#85 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 22, 2008 12:48 pm

207
WTNT31 KNHC 221745
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008

...FAY STILL DRENCHING PORTIONS OF FLORIDA....

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM ARIPEKA NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO DESTIN...AND FROM
FLAGLER BEACH NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER AT THE BORDER BETWEEN
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF DESTIN TO THE
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.9 WEST OR ABOUT 40
MILES... 70 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 4 MPH...6 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
CROSSING THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY...THEN MOVE NEAR OR
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. SEVERAL STATIONS OVER NORTHEAST
FLORIDA ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...70 TO
90 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTER OF FAY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE FLORIDA
GULF COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.

OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA IN OUTER RAIN BANDS
ASSOCIATED WITH FAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...29.7 N...82.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 4 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Re: Tropical Storm Fay Advisories

#86 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 22, 2008 3:39 pm

990
WTNT31 KNHC 222026
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008

...FAY IS NOT IN A HURRY...SLOWLY MOVING WESTWARD...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM FLAGLER
BEACH ON THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM ARIPEKA NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO DESTIN.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF
DESTIN TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES...
80 KM...NORTH OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA AND ABOUT 110 MILES...175 KM...
EAST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE CROSSING THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IS STILL
POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF FAY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA
ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE....SOUTHERN GEORGIA...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA IN OUTER RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH
FAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ALSO POSSIBLE
OVER COASTAL SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 20 TO 30 INCHES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH FAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...29.8 N...83.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

WTNT41 KNHC 222027
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008

THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF FAY HAS CONTINUED TO MOVED WESTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA. MOST OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN RAIN BANDS MOSTLY OVER WATER. INITIAL INTENSITY IS
KEPT AT 40 KNOTS BUT A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN IS ANTICIPATED. BECAUSE A
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WATER...FAY
COULD MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS.

THE CENTER OF FAY HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT
4 KNOTS AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS STEERING PATTERN
SHOULD HOLD FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...FORCING FAY TO CONTINUE ON A
GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK. THEREAFTER...STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST
TO COLLAPSE AND FAY COULD BEGIN TO MEANDER. BY THEN...FAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE A REMNANT LOW.

REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/2100Z 29.8N 83.2W 40 KT
12HR VT 23/0600Z 29.9N 84.1W 40 KT
24HR VT 23/1800Z 30.2N 85.9W 35 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 24/0600Z 30.5N 87.5W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 24/1800Z 31.0N 89.0W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 25/1800Z 31.0N 90.0W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 26/1800Z 31.5N 90.5W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 27/1800Z 32.0N 91.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Re: Tropical Storm Fay Advisories

#87 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 22, 2008 6:59 pm

WTNT31 KNHC 222358
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008

...CENTER OF FAY EMERGES OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN GULF...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM ARIPEKA NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO DESTIN.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF DESTIN TO THE
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.9 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES...
70 KM...SOUTHEAST OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA...AND ABOUT 65 MILES...105
KM...EAST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY...WITH
SLOW WEAKENING FORECAST ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IS STILL
POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF FAY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA
ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE....SOUTHERN GEORGIA...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA IN OUTER RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH
FAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ALSO POSSIBLE
OVER COASTAL SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 20 TO 30 INCHES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH FAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA.

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...29.8 N...83.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB
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Re: Tropical Storm Fay Advisories

#88 Postby Brent » Fri Aug 22, 2008 9:50 pm

TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
0300 UTC SAT AUG 23 2008

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE GULF
COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ARIPEKA NORTHWARD TO SUWANEE RIVER HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM WEST OF
DESTIN TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT
FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST FROM SUWANEE RIVER FLORIDA WESTWARD
TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 1100 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FROM WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
THIS WATCH DOES NOT INCLUDE LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN OR THE CITY OF NEW
ORLEANS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 84.2W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 84.2W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 83.8W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 29.8N 85.3W...NEAR COAST
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 30.1N 86.9W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 30.5N 88.5W...NEAR COAST
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 30.5N 90.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 30.5N 91.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 31.5N 91.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 33.0N 90.5W...REMNANT LOW INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.7N 84.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008

...FAY CENTERED OVER WATER AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN
GEORGIA...

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE GULF
COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ARIPEKA NORTHWARD TO SUWANEE RIVER HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM WEST OF
DESTIN TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT
FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST FROM SUWANEE RIVER FLORIDA WESTWARD
TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 1100 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FROM WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
THIS WATCH DOES NOT INCLUDE LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN OR THE CITY OF NEW
ORLEANS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST OR ABOUT 50
MILES... 80 KM...SOUTH OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA AND ABOUT 50 MILES...
75 KM...EAST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...TAKING FAY NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
COAST ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND WSR-88D
VELOCITIES INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE SLIGHTLY
INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND FAY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM INTO SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150
KM...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF FAY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA
ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA IN OUTER RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH
FAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER COASTAL SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 20 TO 30 INCHES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH FAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...29.7 N...84.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB
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Re: Tropical Storm Fay Advisories

#89 Postby Brent » Sat Aug 23, 2008 1:08 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
200 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008

...CENTER OF FAY MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...HEAVY RAINS
CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND
SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
COAST FROM SUWANEE RIVER FLORIDA WESTWARD TO THE MISSISSIPPI/
ALABAMA BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
THIS WATCH DOES NOT INCLUDE LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN OR THE CITY OF NEW
ORLEANS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.7 WEST OR JUST
SOUTHWEST OF CARRABELLE FLORIDA. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 20
MILES...30 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 45
MILES...70 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...TAKING FAY NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
COAST TODAY AND SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND FAY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM INTO SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150
KM...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF FAY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA
ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA IN OUTER RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH
FAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER COASTAL SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 20 TO 30 INCHES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH FAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
FLORIDA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA.

REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...29.8 N...84.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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#90 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Aug 23, 2008 6:44 am

494
WTNT31 KNHC 231142
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 31A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008

...FAY MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
COAST FROM SUWANEE RIVER FLORIDA WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE
PEARL RIVER TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW
ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST OR OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE ABOUT 20 MILES...35 KM...SOUTHEAST OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...FAY WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE GULF COAST OF
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND NEAR OR OVER
THE GULF COAST OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS...AND FAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM INTO
SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. ABOVE
NORMAL TIDES ALONG THE GEORGIA AND FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST SHOULD
SUBSIDE TODAY.

OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHWESTERN
GEORGIA...AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF BOTH MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...29.9 N...85.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Re: Tropical Storm Fay Advisories

#91 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 23, 2008 12:40 pm

007
WTNT31 KNHC 231730
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 32A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
100 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008

...CENTER OF FAY MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
COAST FROM SUWANEE RIVER FLORIDA WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN
NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
ESTIMATED BY RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST OR ABOUT
75 MILES...125 KM...EAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA.

FAY HAS BEEN MOVING ON A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK NEAR 8
MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING OVER
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND NEAR OR OVER
THE GULF COAST OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TODAY BUT A
GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN SOON IF THE CENTER REMAINS OVER
LAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER MAINLY OVER WATER SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHWESTERN
GEORGIA...THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF BOTH MISSISSIPPI
AND ALABAMA...AND EASTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA.

REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...30.5 N...85.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Re: Tropical Storm Fay Advisories

#92 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 23, 2008 3:33 pm

135
WTNT31 KNHC 232033
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
400 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008

...FAY MOVING FARTHER INLAND ACCOMPANIED BY TORRENTIAL RAINS...

AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH WEST OF THE ALABAMA-MISSISSIPPI BORDER HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
COAST FROM SUWANEE RIVER FLORIDA WESTWARD TO THE ALABAMA-
MISSISSIPPI BORDER.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 30.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.3 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES...
175 KM...EAST OF MOBILE ALABAMA AND ABOUT 55 MILES... 85 KM...EAST
OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TONIGHT...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHWESTERN
GEORGIA...THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF BOTH MISSISSIPPI
AND ALABAMA...AND EASTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA.

REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...30.6 N...86.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

WTNT41 KNHC 232034
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008

SURFACE...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE
CENTER OF FAY IS INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KNOTS...THE CIRCULATION IS
GRADUALLY SPINNING DOWN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS CONFINED MOSTLY TO
CONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. NOW THAT THE CENTER IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THEREAFTER...STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND FAY
COULD REMAIN MEANDERING FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS. ALTHOUGH BY
THEN...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE A DEPRESSION OR A REMNANT
LOW...IT WILL STILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS ALONG ITS
PATH AND THE EMPHASIS SHOULD CONTINUE ON THESE RAINS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/2100Z 30.6N 86.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 24/0600Z 30.9N 87.5W 35 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 24/1800Z 31.2N 89.7W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 25/0600Z 31.0N 91.0W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 25/1800Z 31.0N 91.0W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 26/1800Z 31.0N 91.0W 25 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 27/1800Z 32.5N 90.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 28/1800Z 34.5N 89.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Re: Tropical Storm Fay Advisories

#93 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 23, 2008 6:58 pm

648
WTNT31 KNHC 232357
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 33A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
700 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008

...FAY WEAKENING OVER LAND BUT STILL DUMPING HEAVY RAINS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
COAST FROM SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA WESTWARD TO THE ALABAMA-
MISSISSIPPI BORDER.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED INLAND OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR LATITUDE
30.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.7 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES...55 KM...
NORTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA
AND MISSISSIPPI ON SUNDAY. LITTLE FORWARD MOTION IS FORECAST ON
MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND FAY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY
TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...
OVER WATER TO THE SOUTH OF THE THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHWESTERN
GEORGIA...THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF BOTH MISSISSIPPI
AND ALABAMA...AND EASTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA.

REPEATING THE 700 PM CDT POSITION...30.7 N...86.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB
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Re: Tropical Depression Fay Advisories

#94 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 23, 2008 9:45 pm

WTNT21 KNHC 240244
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
0300 UTC SUN AUG 24 2008

AT 10 PM CDT...0300 UTC...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 87.1W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 87.1W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 86.7W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 31.3N 88.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 31.2N 90.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 31.0N 91.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 31.0N 91.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 31.5N 90.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 33.0N 89.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 35.0N 88.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.9N 87.1W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM

$$
FORECASTER KNABB
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Re: Tropical Depression Fay Advisories

#95 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 23, 2008 10:00 pm

WTNT41 KNHC 240258
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WSR-88D RADAR DATA SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION HAS CONTINUED MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/7. RAIN
BANDS HAVE BECOME RELATIVELY FEW AND FAR BETWEEN OVER WATER...AND
ALL AVAILABLE DATA SUGGEST THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE ARE NO LONGER OCCURRING. FAY IS DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION
WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 KT...ALTHOUGH RATHER GUSTY CONDITIONS
PERSIST EVEN OVER LAND AREAS. SINCE FAY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER
LAND...THE INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES SLOW WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH
DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE GULF OF MEXICO...FAY COULD REMAIN A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR A FEW MORE DAYS.

THE DOWNGRADE BASED ON WINDS DOES NOT CHANGE THE FACT THAT THIS
SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND
FLOODING HAZARD FOR SEVERAL DAYS TO COME...ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST AND ADJACENT AREAS WELL INLAND. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST
BY ALL MODELS TO CONTINUE MOVING IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
ITS NORTH. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...MOST MODELS FORECAST THE
STEERING CURRENTS TO COLLAPSE...LEAVING FAY TO PERHAPS MEANDER OR
EVEN REMAIN STATIONARY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...FURTHER EXACERBATING
THE RAINFALL AND FLOODING POTENTIAL. MODELS GREATLY DISAGREE ON
WHAT BECOMES OF FAY IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME FRAME...WITH SOME...SUCH
AS THE GFS...FORECASTING A BRISK MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AHEAD
OF THE NEXT MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...BUT WITH OTHERS CALLING FOR FAY
TO HANG AROUND THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH 120 HOURS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS A COMPROMISE...SHOWING A VERY SLOW
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION LATE IN THE FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/0300Z 30.9N 87.1W 30 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 24/1200Z 31.3N 88.6W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 25/0000Z 31.2N 90.3W 25 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 25/1200Z 31.0N 91.0W 25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 26/0000Z 31.0N 91.0W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 27/0000Z 31.5N 90.5W 25 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 28/0000Z 33.0N 89.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 29/0000Z 35.0N 88.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

WTNT31 KNHC 240256
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1000 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008

...FAY WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION BUT HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING COULD
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS...

AT 10 PM CDT...0300 UTC...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.1 WEST OR ABOUT 60
MILES...100 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF MOBILE ALABAMA AND ABOUT 30 MILES
... 45 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. A
GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT FAY COULD BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING
OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI ON SUNDAY...AND WILL BE
LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI OR EASTERN LOUISIANA ON MONDAY.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WSR-88D RADAR DATA
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. VERY GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IS 999
MB...29.50 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...AND
EASTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY IN PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WESTERN GEORGIA...AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
ALABAMA.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...30.9 N...87.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT31
KWNH...BEGINNING AT 400 AM CDT SUNDAY.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB
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Re: Tropical Depression Fay HPC Advisories

#96 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 24, 2008 6:04 am

000
WTNT31 KWNH 240845
TCPAT1

PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 35 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL062008
400 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2008

...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING COULD CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS FROM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY...

FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT INTO THIS EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF
MISSISSIPPI AND EASTERN LOUISIANA.

AT 400 AM CDT...09Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.2 WEST...OR ABOUT
55 MILES..88 KM...NORTH OF MOBILE AL.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. A
GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY...BUT FAY COULD BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING
OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI TODAY AND WILL BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
LOUISIANA ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH..48 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. VERY GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY.

SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 100 AM CDT

...ALABAMA...

TROY 5.58
DOTHAN 4.00
MONTGOMERY 3.67
AUBURN 3.30
EVERGREEN 1.79
TUSCALOOSA 1.30
BIRMINGHAM .81
MOBILE .10

...MISSISSIPPI...

MERIDIAN 1.62
COLUMBUS .68
JACKSON .19

...GEORGIA...

VALDOSTA 7.91
ALBANY 4.57
ALMA 3.88
SAVANNAH 3.13
BRUNSWICK 2.88
COLUMBUS 2.26
MACON 1.03

...SOUTH CAROLINA...

BEAUFORT 4.97
CHARLESTON 2.66

...FLORIDA...

MELBOURNE BEACH 25.03
COCOA BEACH 24.38
CAPE CANAVERAL 22.83
DELTONA 22.69
SATELLITE BEACH 22.40
ORANGE CITY 19.81
SANFORD 14.97
PALM BAY 14.89
FORT PIERCE 11.58
JACKSONVILLE 11.57
VERO BEACH 11.34
CROSS CITY 9.86
TALLAHASSEE 9.49
DAYTONA BEACH 8.61
WEST PALM BEACH 7.32
ORLANDO 7.26
FORT MYERS 6.85
MARATHON 6.80
MIAMI 6.19
KEY WEST 3.35
PANAMA CITY 1.39
TAMPA .72
PENSACOLA .45

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF
MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...EASTERN LOUISIANA...AND THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS....WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER GEORGIA
AND THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN FLORIDA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND MUCH OF
MISSISSIPPI.

REPEATING THE 400 AM CDT POSITION...31.6 N...88.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER AT 1000 AM CDT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS
STORM.

HEDGE

FORECAST POSITIONS

INITIAL 24/0900Z 31.6N 88.2W
12HR VT 24/1800Z 31.5N 89.4W
24HR VT 25/0600Z 31.1N 90.6W
36HR VT 25/1800Z 31.0N 91.0W
48HR VT 26/0600Z 31.0N 91.0W
72HR VT 27/0600Z 32.0N 90.5W
96HR VT 28/0600Z 33.5N 89.2W...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 29/0600Z 35.0N 87.0W...REMNANT LOW




$$
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Re: Tropical Depression Fay HPC Advisories

#97 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 24, 2008 10:03 am

WTNT31 KWNH 241502
TCPAT1

PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 36 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL062008
1000 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2008

...HEAVY RAIN WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTH DESPITE A WEAKENING
FAY...

FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHWESTERN
GEORGIA...AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHWESTERN
GEORGIA...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI AND INTO PARTS OF
EASTERN LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS.

AT 1000 AM CDT...15Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.0 WEST...OR ABOUT
70 MILES..113 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI AND 25
MILES...40 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MERIDIAN MISSISSIPPI.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH. A GENERAL
WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY...BUT FAY COULD BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OR STALL
ON MONDAY. THE FORECAST TRACK WILL TAKE FAY INTO SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND FAY WILL BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
LOUISIANA OR SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH..48 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 700 AM CDT

...ALABAMA...

VALLEY 0.4 NNW 7.12
CAMDEN 1.0 NNE 6.83
CLIO 0.2 SSW 6.38
ELFAULA 1.0 SSE 6.26
TROY 1.5 ESE 6.21
WETUMPKA 5.0 SE 6.14
CLOPTON 0.1 SW 5.96
LADONIA 13.2 SSW 5.90
ALEXANDER CITY 10.0 SW 5.77
PINE HILL 3.6 WSW 5.76
SYLACAUGS 9.2 S 5.65
TROY 5.60
OZARK 5.36
DOTHAN 4.17
AUBURN 4.04
MONTGOMERY 3.81
BIRMINGHAM 3.28
ALABASTER 2.77
ANNISTON 2.14
EVERGREEN 2.14
TUSCALOOSA 2.10

...FLORIDA...

MELBOURNE BEACH 3.9 SSE 25.28
COCOA BEACH 24.38
CAPE CANAVERAL 22.83
DELTONA 22.69
SATELLITE BEACH 22.40
PALM SHORES 1.4 W 21.44
DELTONA 2.9 SE 20.94
MELBOURNE 7.0 NW 20.57
ORANGE CITY 19.81
HILLIARD 5.4 NW 19.70
TALLAHASSEE 5.7 SE 19.17
MALABAR 2.9 NNW 19.00
WACISSA 1.1 SW 18.09
SANFORD 0.4 ENE 18.03
LAKEWOOD PARK 0.5 SW 17.90
DE LAND 4.5 NW 17.20
COCOA 5.8 NW 16.77
MICCO 4.5 NW 16.26
LONGWOOD 2.3 WNW 15.70
EUSTIS 1.2 SE 15.56
HOBE SOUND 3.9 NW 15.01
SANFORD 14.97
PALM BAY 14.89
NORTH MAPLES 7.3 E 14.42
JACKSONVILLE 7.3 SW 14.40
DE LEON SPRINGS 0.4 SE 14.23
FORT PIERCE 11.58
JACKSONVILLE 11.58

...GEORGIA...

VALDOSTA (MOODY AFB) 8.54
ALBANY 4.92
SAVANNAH (HUNTER AAF) 4.41
ALMA 3.99
FORT BENNING 3.66
SAVANNAH 3.16
COLUMBUS 3.15
BRUNSWICK 2.89
MACON 1.49

...LOUISIANA...

LAFAYETTE 1.31
NEW ORLEANS (NEW) 1.24
BOOTHVILLE 1.16

...MISSISSIPPI...

JACKSON (WFO) 3.92
MERIDIAN (NAS/MCCAIN) 3.74
COLUMBUS (AFB) 3.39
MERIDIAN 2.54
GREENWOOD 2.43
JACKSON 2.40
NATCHEZ 2.15
VICKSBURG 1.37
TUPELO 1.31

...SOUTH CAROLINA...

BEAUFORT 5.34
CHARLESTON 2.67


TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF
MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...EASTERN LOUISIANA...WESTERN GEORGIA AND
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING....WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. LIGHTER RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN
TENNESSEE... EASTERN GEORGIA... EASTERN ARKANSAS AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO
GEORGIA AND ALABAMA.

REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...32.0 N...89.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER AT 400 PM CDT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE OR WEATHER.GOV FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION ON THIS STORM.

MUSHER

FORECAST POSITIONS

INITIAL 24/1500Z 31.6N 88.2W
12HR VT 25/0000Z 31.1N 91.1W
24HR VT 25/1200Z 31.0N 90.9W
36HR VT 26/0000Z 31.3N 90.3W
48HR VT 26/1200Z 31.8N 89.6W
72HR VT 27/1200Z 33.9N 87.7W...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 28/1200Z 38.0N 84.0W...REMNANT LOW
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Re: Tropical Depression Fay HPC Advisories

#98 Postby HurricaneBelle » Sun Aug 24, 2008 5:56 pm

WTNT31 KWNH 242235
TCPAT1

PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 37 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL062008
400 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2008

...FAY STALLING OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...SOUTHEASTERN
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF
FLORIDA. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND
MAUREPAS IN LOUISIANA.

AT 400 PM CDT...21Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.9 WEST...OR ABOUT
75 MILES..120 KM...SOUTH OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI AND 90 MILES...145
KM... NORTH OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA.

THE DEPRESSION IS NEARLY STATIONARY OR DRIFTING OFF TO THE SOUTH
AND WEST. THE FORECAST TRACK WILL KEEP FAY STALLED FOR ANOTHER 12
TO 24 HOURS BEFORE ADVANCING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO EAST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI OR WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA BY TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 25 MPH..40 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 100 PM CDT

...ALABAMA...

CAMDEN 1.0 NNE 6.55
CLIO 0.2 SSW 6.26
EUFAULA 1.0 SSE 6.26
TROY 1.5 ESE 6.16
WETUMPKA 5.0 SE 6.14
VALLEY 0.4 NNW 6.11
LADONIA 13.2 SSW 5.90
ALEXANDER CITY 10.0 SW 5.77
CLOPTON 0.1 SW 5.71
SYLACAUGA 9.2 S 5.65
TROY 5.65
OZARK 5.41
MONTGOMERY 3.69
BIRMINGHAM 3.34
TUSCALOOSA 1.99

...FLORIDA...

MELBOURNE BEACH 3.9 SSE 25.28
COCOA BEACH 24.38
CAPE CANAVERAL 22.83
DELTONA 22.69
SATELLITE BEACH 22.40
PALM SHORES 1.4 W 21.44
PALM BAY 1.0 NE 21.00
DELTONA 2.9 SE 20.94
PALM SHORES 4.3 NNW 20.85
MELBOURNE 7.0 NW 20.57
ORANGE CITY 19.81
HILLIARD 5.4 NW 19.70
PALM SHORES 2.9 NW 19.64
TALLAHASSEE 5.7 SE 19.17
MALABAR 2.9 NNW 19.00
TALLAHASSEE 14.2 NE 18.30
WACISSA 1.1 SW 18.09
TALLAHASSEE 6.1 SE 18.07
MELBOURNE 1.1 N 18.05
SANFORD 0.4 ENE 18.03

...GEORGIA...

THOMASVILLE 2.8 E 17.43
COOLIDGE 3.2 SSW 12.03
MOULTRIE 6.2 SW 9.45
MEIGS 8.3 E 9.33
BLUFTON 0.2 N 9.02
VALDOSTA (MOODY AFB) 8.27
ALBANY 3.7 NE 8.25
HARIRA 3.6 SE 7.87
TIFTON 5.6 SW 7.76
FOLKSTON 2.4 E 7.51
MOULTRIE 10.0 ESE 7.21
LAKE PARK 2.8 W 7.11
ALBANY 8.0 ESE 6.81
OMEGA 4.7 NW 6.72
ST. MARYS 1.4 SW 6.49

...LOUISIANA...

NEW ORLEANS (NEW) 1.24
BOOTHVILLE 1.16
LAFAYETTE 0.23

...MISSISSIPPI...



MERIDIAN NAS/MCCAIN 1.56
MERIDIAN/KEY FIELD 1.55
JACKSON WFO 1.51
MCCOMB/LEWIS FIELD 1.30
NATCHEZ/HARDY 1.27
JACKSON/HAWKINS FIELD 1.23
HATTIESBURG/LAUREL 1.07


...SOUTH CAROLINA...

BEAUFORT 5.84
MEGGET 1.8 W 4.97
FOLLY BEACH 1.9 WNW 4.63
CHARLESTON 4.6 SSE 4.52
BLUFTON 2.3 NNE 4.37
BLUFTON 6.2 WNW 4.29
BLUFTON 2.4 NNW 4.29
BLUFTON 1.9 N 4.09
CHARLESTON 6.4 NW 4.01
JOHNS ISLAND 9.0 SE 4.01
CHARLESTON 2.67


TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER MUCH OF ALABAMA...PORTIONS OF
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...WESTERN GEORGIA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING....WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. LIGHTER RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN TENNESSEE... EASTERN
GEORGIA... WESTERN NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA INTO GEORGIA AND ALABAMA. IN FACT...A TORNADO WATCH IS
IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA UNTIL 1000
PM EDT OR 900 PM CDT.

REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...31.3 N...89.9 W.
MOVEMENT...NEARLY STATIONARY... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER AT 1000 PM CDT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE OR WEATHER.GOV FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION ON FAY.

MUSHER

FORECAST POSITIONS

INITIAL 24/2100Z 31.3N 89.9W
12HR VT 25/0600Z 31.2N 90.4W
24HR VT 25/1800Z 31.7N 90.0W
36HR VT 26/0600Z 32.5N 88.9W
48HR VT 26/1800Z 33.4N 87.8W
72HR VT 27/1800Z 36.0N 85.0W...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 28/1800Z 39.0N 82.5W...REMNANT LOW
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Re: Tropical Depression Fay HPC Advisories

#99 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 24, 2008 10:08 pm

WTNT31 KWNH 250307
TCPAT1

PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 38 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL062008
1000 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2008

...FAY NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND NORTHERN FLORIDA.

AT 1000 PM CDT...03Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.0 WEST...OR ABOUT
75 MILES..120 KM...SOUTH OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI AND 90 MILES...145
KM... NORTH OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA.

THE DEPRESSION IS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE FORECAST TRACK WILL KEEP
FAY STALLED FOR ANOTHER 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE ADVANCING TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI OR WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 25 MPH..40 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 700 PM CDT

...LOUISIANA...

BATON ROUGE 2.80
NEW ORLEANS (MSY) 1.17
BOOTHVILLE 0.98
NEW IBERIA 0.67
LAFAYETTE 0.39

...MISSISSIPPI...

NATCHEZ/HARDY 2.54
COLUMBUS AFB 2.40
MERIDIAN/KEY FIELD 2.29
MERIDIAN NAS/MCCAIN 1.96
JACKSON 1.79
VICKSBURG 1.70
MCCOMB/LEWIS FIELD 1.61
TUPELO 1.45
HATTIESBURG 0.99
BILOXI 0.21
GULFPORT 0.12

...ALABAMA...

TROY 5.65
OZARK 5.42
DOTHAN 4.38
AUBURN 4.04
MONTGOMERY 3.58
BIRMINGHAM 3.31
ANNISTON 2.82
TUSCALOOSA 2.30
EVERGREEN 1.81
MOBILE 0.63

...GEORGIA...

THOMASVILLE 2.8 E 17.43
COOLIDGE 3.2 SSW 12.03
VALDOSTA 8.31
ALBANY 4.64
COLUMBUS 4.29
ALMA 4.24
SAVANNAH 3.16
BRUNSWICK 2.88
MACON 2.26
PEACHTREE CITY 1.48

...SOUTH CAROLINA...

BEAUFORT 5.84
CHARLESTON 2.72

...FLORIDA...

MELBOURNE BEACH 25.28
COCOA BEACH 24.38
CAPE CANAVERAL 22.83
DELTONA 22.69
SATELLITE BEACH 22.40
PALM SHORES 1.4 W 21.44
PALM BAY 1.0 NE 21.00
ORANGE CITY 19.81
HILLIARD 5.4 NW 19.70
SANFORD 15.70
TALLAHASSEE 11.93
FORT PIERCE 11.58
JACKSONVILLE 11.70
VERO BEACH 11.34
CROSS CITY 9.97
DAYTONA BEACH 8.82
WEST PALM BEACH 7.32
ORLANDO 7.26
FORT MYERS 6.85
MARATHON 6.80
MIAMI 6.19
KEY WEST 3.35

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER MUCH OF ALABAMA...PORTIONS OF
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...WESTERN GEORGIA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING....WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. LIGHTER RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN TENNESSEE... EASTERN
GEORGIA... WESTERN NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...31.3 N...90.0 W.
MOVEMENT...NEARLY STATIONARY... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER AT 400 AM CDT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE OR WEATHER.GOV FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION ON FAY.

HEDGE

FORECAST POSITIONS

INITIAL 25/0300Z 31.3N 90.0W
12HR VT 25/1200Z 31.1N 90.1W
24HR VT 26/0000Z 31.8N 89.7W
36HR VT 26/1200Z 32.7N 88.5W
48HR VT 27/0000Z 33.9N 87.3W
72HR VT 28/0000Z 37.4N 83.5W...REMNANT LOW
$$
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Re: Tropical Depression Fay HPC Advisories

#100 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 25, 2008 5:58 am

I dont see the 4 AM CDT HPC advisory so here it is.

000
WTNT31 KWNH 250849
TCPAT1

PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 39 FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD AL062008
400 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2008

...FAY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI...EASTERN LOUISIANA...AND THE FAR WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA.

AT 400 AM CDT...09Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.9 WEST...OR ABOUT
75 MILES..120 KM...SOUTH OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI AND 90 MILES...145
KM... NORTH OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA.

THE DEPRESSION IS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE FORECAST TRACK INDICATES
THAT THE CENTER OF FAY WILL BEGIN MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST
TODAY...AND REACH INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA DURING TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 25 MPH..40 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES THROUGH 100 AM CDT

...LOUISIANA...

BATON ROUGE 2.80
BOOTHVILLE 1.92
NEW ORLEANS (MSY) 1.46
SALT POINT 1.31
SLIDELL 1.15
NEW IBERIA 1.07
LAFAYETTE 0.76

...MISSISSIPPI...

STARKVILLE 5.3 S 2.88
NATCHEZ/HARDY 2.72
COLUMBUS AFB 2.47
MERIDIAN/KEY FIELD 2.45
TUPELO 2.20
MERIDIAN NAS/MCCAIN 1.96
JACKSON 1.94
VICKSBURG 1.75
MCCOMB/LEWIS FIELD 1.85
GREENWOOD 1.10
HATTIESBURG 1.01
PASCAGOULA 0.79
BILOXI 0.23
GULFPORT 0.17

...ALABAMA...

CAMDEN 1.0 NNE 6.55
EUFAULA 1.0 SSE 6.26
WETUMPKA 5.0 SE 6.14
TROY 5.65
OZARK 5.42
DOTHAN 4.38
AUBURN 4.05
MONTGOMERY 3.58
BIRMINGHAM 3.31
ANNISTON 2.84
TUSCALOOSA 2.31
EVERGREEN 1.81
MOBILE 1.41

...GEORGIA...

THOMASVILLE 2.8 E 17.43
COOLIDGE 3.2 SSW 12.03
MOULTRIE 6.2 SW 9.45
VALDOSTA 8.31
LAKE PARK 2.8 W 7.11
ALBANY 4.64
COLUMBUS 4.29
ALMA 4.24
SAVANNAH 3.16
BRUNSWICK 2.88
MACON 2.26
PEACHTREE CITY 1.48

...SOUTH CAROLINA...

BEAUFORT 5.84
MEGGETT 1.8 W 4.97
FOLLY BEACH 2.5 SW 3.96
CHARLESTON 2.72

...FLORIDA...

MELBOURNE BEACH 25.28
COCOA BEACH 24.38
CAPE CANAVERAL 22.83
DELTONA 22.69
SATELLITE BEACH 22.40
PALM SHORES 1.4 W 21.44
PALM BAY 1.0 NE 21.00
ORANGE CITY 19.81
HILLIARD 5.4 NW 19.70
SANFORD 15.70
TALLAHASSEE (TLH) 11.93
FORT PIERCE 11.58
JACKSONVILLE 11.70
VERO BEACH 11.34
CROSS CITY 9.97
DAYTONA BEACH 8.82
WEST PALM BEACH 7.32
ORLANDO 7.26
FORT MYERS 6.85
MARATHON 6.80
MIAMI 6.19
KEY WEST 3.35

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PARTS OF ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...WESTERN AND NORTHERN GEORGIA...EASTERN TENNESSEE...AND
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING....WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF
ALABAMA...WESTERN GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

REPEATING THE 400 AM CDT POSITION...31.3 N...89.9 W.
MOVEMENT...NEARLY STATIONARY... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER AT 1000 AM CDT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE OR WEATHER.GOV FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION ON FAY.

HEDGE

FORECAST POSITIONS

INITIAL 25/0900Z 31.3N 89.9W
12HR VT 25/1800Z 31.8N 89.5W
24HR VT 26/0600Z 32.6N 88.7W
36HR VT 26/1800Z 33.6N 87.6W
48HR VT 27/0600Z 34.7N 86.5W
72HR VT 28/0600Z 37.5N 84.5W...REMNANT LOW
$$
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