Tropical Depression Fay HPC Advisories

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008

...FAY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE
PROVINCE OF SANCTI SPIRITUS EASTWARD TO GUANTANAMO...AND ALSO FOR
CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE PROVINCE OF
MATANZAS EASTWARD TO SANCTI SPIRITUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.

INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.3 WEST OR ABOUT 175
MILES...280 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 100 MILES...
165 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA SUNDAY...AND WILL BE
NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
FAY COULD BE APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT NEARS WESTERN
CUBA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER. GUANTANAMO CUBA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 44 MPH...71 KM/HR WITH GUSTS TO 52 MPH...83 KM/HR. RAINBANDS
ASSOCIATED WITH FAY ARE AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS AND ARE APPROACHING
THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER HAITI...EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...JAMAICA...AND
THE NORTHERN CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER GRAND CAYMAN AND OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...19.4 N...76.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
0300 UTC SUN AUG 17 2008

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE
PROVINCE OF SANCTI SPIRITUS EASTWARD TO GUANTANAMO...AND ALSO FOR
CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE PROVINCE OF
MATANZAS EASTWARD TO SANCTI SPIRITUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR HAITI HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.

INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 76.3W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 76.3W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 75.7W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.0N 78.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 21.5N 80.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 23.0N 81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 25SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 24.5N 82.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 27.8N 82.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...125NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 31.0N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 34.0N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 76.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008

A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SPENT SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON IN
FAY AND FOUND THAT THE CYCLONE HAS A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH
THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. IN
FACT...GUANTANAMO CUBA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 38
KNOTS AND GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KNOTS.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AFTER BEING DISRUPTED BY THE HIGH
MOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA. FAY HAS A LARGE ENVELOPE WITH PLENTY OF
CONVECTION AND WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. SURROUNDING
SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE FALLEN ON THE ORDER OF 5 MB SINCE
YESTERDAY...AND IN GENERAL THIS IS AN INDICATION OF DEVELOPMENT.
ALL THESE FACTORS SUGGEST STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THE RATE OF
INTENSIFICATION DEPENDS ON HOW CLOSE TO LAND THE CENTER MOVES...AND
IF FAY IS ABLE TO DEVELOP AN INNER CORE. AT THIS TIME...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A MODEST STRENGTHENING. IF FAY REMAINS
OVER WATER IT COULD REACH THE COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA AS
A HURRICANE...BUT THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST. IT IS INTERESTING TO
NOTE THAT THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS ARE NO LONGER INDICATING AN
AGGRESSIVE INTENSIFICATION IN THE MOST RECENT RUN.

FIXES FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND DATA FROM CUBAN RADARS
INDICATE THAT FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12
KNOTS. FAY IS ALREADY REACHING THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SO A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
NORTHWARD TURN AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH. ON THIS
TRACK...FAY SHOULD BE MOVING VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THEN IT SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE
EXTREME EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO VERY NEAR OR OVER THE WEST FLORIDA
COAST. TRACK GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY...AND MOST OF
THE MODELS ARE IN EXTREMELY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE SPREAD BECOMES MUCH LARGER BEYOND 48 HOURS WITH SOME MODELS
BRINGING FAY OVER FLORIDA AND OTHERS KEEPING IT OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON TOP OF THE CONSENSUS...WHICH IS
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

ON THIS TRACK...WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED EARLY SUNDAY FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0300Z 19.4N 76.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 17/1200Z 20.0N 78.0W 45 KT
24HR VT 18/0000Z 21.5N 80.0W 55 KT
36HR VT 18/1200Z 23.0N 81.5W 50 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 19/0000Z 24.5N 82.0W 60 KT
72HR VT 20/0000Z 27.8N 82.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 21/0000Z 31.0N 82.5W 35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 22/0000Z 34.0N 82.5W 25 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[HURAKAN]

146
WTNT31 KNHC 170555
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

...FAY STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AS IT TURNS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE
PROVINCE OF SANCTI SPIRITUS EASTWARD TO GUANTANAMO...AND ALSO FOR
CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE PROVINCE OF
MATANZAS EASTWARD TO SANCTI SPIRITUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST OR ABOUT 140
MILES...230 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...20 KM/HR. A
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
EXPECTED ON MONDAY. FAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING VERY NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST OF CUBA TODAY...CROSS CENTRAL CUBA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR FLORIDA STRAITS ON
MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
FAY COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES CENTRAL
CUBA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER HAITI...EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...JAMAICA...AND
THE NORTHERN CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER GRAND CAYMAN AND OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...19.6 N...76.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME

[Thunder44]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 170858
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

...WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE
DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM
CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO BONITA BEACH. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 5 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AND
FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE
PROVINCE OF SANCTI SPIRITUS EASTWARD TO GUANTANAMO...AND ALSO FOR
CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EEFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE PROVINCE OF
MATANZAS EASTWARD TO SANCTI SPIRITUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF FAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST OR ABOUT 125
MILES...200 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 445
MILES...715 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY. FAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST OF CUBA TODAY...CROSS CENTRAL CUBA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...AND EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR THE
FLORIDA STRAITS ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
FAY COULD BE APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES CENTRAL
CUBA. ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS FAY CROSSES CUBA...FAY
IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER MUCH OF CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE NORTHERN CAYMAN
ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER GRAND
CAYMAN AND OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. RAINS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER HAITI TODAY.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...19.7 N...77.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME




000
WTNT41 KNHC 170902
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

THE CENTER OF FAY IS TOO CLOSE TO THE COAST OF CUBA TO BE ACCESSIBLE
TO THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...SO THERE ARE NO DIRECT
MEASUREMENTS OF CENTRAL PRESSURE OR PRECISE POSITIONING OF THE
SURFACE CENTER. HOWEVER...CUBAN RADAR IMAGERY AND THE AVAILABLE
RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT FAY IS BEGINNING ITS TURN TO THE
RIGHT...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 285/11. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY...ALTHOUGH THE CONFIDENCE HAS
DECREASED DUE TO A SPREADING OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE VERY DIFFERENT EVOLUTIONS OF THE STEERING FLOW
OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A WEAKER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND AN MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE DIPPING INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF...WHICH TURNS FAY NORTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
BEFORE STALLING IT IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE GFDL AND HWRF ALSO
SHOW A PATH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE RIGHT OF THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. MOST OF THE REMAINING GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
GFS AND UKMET...TURN FAY NORTHWARD IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE EAST OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW FORECAST TO
BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS
LATTER SCENARIO AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.

RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE ORGANIZATION OF THE INNER
CORE IS IMPROVING...ALTHOUGH RECONNAISSANCE DROPSONDES NEAR THE
CENTER SUGGEST THAT THE PRESSURE HAS NOT YET CHANGED MUCH. THE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL VERY FAVORABLE AND FAY COULD BE NEAR
HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES CENTRAL CUBA. IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF...THESE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS CONDUCIVE
FOR STRENGTHENING...BUT MOST OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE HAS FAY NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE HURRICANE STRENGTH NEAR THE TIME OF LANDFALL. FAY IS
EXPECTED TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF...EVEN THOUGH THE TIMING OF THE FORECAST POINTS BELOW DO NOT
EXPLICITLY SHOW IT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0900Z 19.7N 77.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 17/1800Z 20.7N 78.9W 50 KT
24HR VT 18/0600Z 22.2N 80.6W 55 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 18/1800Z 23.7N 81.6W 50 KT
48HR VT 19/0600Z 25.4N 82.1W 60 KT
72HR VT 20/0600Z 29.0N 82.5W 50 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 21/0600Z 32.0N 82.5W 35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 22/0600Z 35.5N 82.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME

[cycloneye]

WTNT31 KNHC 171150
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

...CENTER OF FAY NEAR CABO CRUZ IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA......WARNINGS
AND WATCHES EXTENDED WESTWARD IN CUBA...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF
OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA
BAY...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM CARD SOUND BRIDGE
WESTWARD TO BONITA BEACH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AND FOR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
36 HOURS.

AT 8 AT EDT...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WATCH TO THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA AND CIUDAD LA HABANA.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA AND CIUDAD LA HABANA EASTWARD TO SANCTI SPIRITUS.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING WESTWARD TO INCLUDE THE PROVINCES OF
CIENFUEGOS...VILLA CLARA...MATANZAS...LA HABANA...AND CIUDAD LA
HABANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF CUBA
FROM THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA AND CIUDAD LA HABAMA EASTWARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CAYMAN BRAC AND
LITTLE CAYMAN.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF FAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST OR ABOUT
100 MILES...160 KM...SOUTH OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 395 MILES...
635 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY. FAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY NEAR THE
SOUTH COAST OF CUBA TODAY...CROSS CENTRAL CUBA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...
AND EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR THE FLORIDA
STRAITS ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
FAY COULD BE APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES CENTRAL
CUBA. ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS FAY CROSSES CUBA...FAY
IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER MUCH OF CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE NORTHERN CAYMAN
ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER GRAND
CAYMAN AND OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. RAINS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER HAITI TODAY.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...20.0 N...78.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/BROWN

[Chacor]

983
WTNT21 KNHC 171430
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1500 UTC SUN AUG 17 2008

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH ON THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND. A HURRICANE
WATCH IS IN NOW EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF OCEAN
REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND
ALONG THE FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO ANNA
MARIA ISLAND. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE PROVINCES OF
LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA EASTWARD TO SANCTI SPIRITUS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...
INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE
PROVINCES OF LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA EASTWARD TO
GUANTANAMO...AND ALSO FOR CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AND FOR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS DISCONTINUED
FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY.


TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 78.6W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 120SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 78.6W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 78.0W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 21.3N 80.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 22.9N 81.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 45SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 24.5N 82.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 26.2N 82.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 29.5N 82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 45SW 45NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 32.5N 81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 36.0N 81.5W...INLAND REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 78.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

871
WTNT31 KNHC 171441
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

...FAY MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF CUBA...NEW WARNINGS AND
WATCHES IN FLORIDA...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH ON THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND. A HURRICANE
WATCH IS IN NOW EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF OCEAN
REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND
ALONG THE FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO ANNA
MARIA ISLAND. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE PROVINCES OF
LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA EASTWARD TO SANCTI SPIRITUS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...
INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE
PROVINCES OF LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA EASTWARD TO
GUANTANAMO...AND ALSO FOR CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AND FOR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS DISCONTINUED
FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.6 WEST OR ABOUT 75
MILES...125 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 350 MILES...
560 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...WITH
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON MONDAY. FAY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA TODAY...CROSS WESTERN CUBA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING...AND MOVE NEAR THE FLORIDA
KEYS MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
FAY COULD BE APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES WESTERN
CUBA. ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS FAY CROSSES CUBA...FAY
IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER. CABO CRUZ CUBA RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 66
MPH...107 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER MUCH OF CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE NORTHERN CAYMAN
ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER GRAND
CAYMAN AND OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. HEAVY RAIN
MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA LATER TODAY
AND INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH
FLORIDA.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...20.5 N...78.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/BROWN

[cycloneye]

WTNT41 KNHC 171507
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

FAY APPEARS A LITTLE RAGGED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING...WITH
THE MAIN CONVECTION IN BANDS WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND ONLY
A SMALL AMOUNT OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 AND 35 KT RESPECTIVELY...AND A
SYNOPTIC OBSERVATION FROM CABO CRUZ CUBA REPORTED 45 KT. BASED ON
THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11...A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT THAN 6 HR
AGO. FAY IS APPROACHING A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN A LOW/MID LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH IS DEVELOPING DUE TO A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD ALLOW FAY TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD AFTER 24 HR...BUT THERE
REMAINS SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW MUCH OF
A TURN WILL OCCUR. THE ECMWF...GFS...AND GFDL FORECAST A
NORTHEASTWARD TURN TAKING FAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE
ATLANTIC. THE HWRF...UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS CALL FOR A
NORTHWARD MOTION OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THEN...THE NOGPAS CALLS FOR A
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
OVERALL...THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANGED LITTLE FOR THE FIRST
36-48 HR OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST
THEREAFTER. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS THUS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
TRACK FOR THE FIRST 48 HR...THEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF
THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE
BECOME A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...WITH
THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWING 10 TO 15 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS STILL LIGHT ENOUGH FOR STRENGTHENING
TO OCCUR IF FAY CAN DEVELOP AN INNER CORE. THE SHIPS AND GFDL
MODELS FORECAST FAY TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 36-48
HR...WHILE THE HWRF...WHICH KEEPS FAY OVER WATER LONGER...FORECASTS
A BORDERLINE CATEGORY 1/2 HURRICANE IN 48-60. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
SHIPS MODEL...WITH FAY REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL
ON THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. FAY COULD STRENGTHEN MORE THAN
FORECAST IF A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE FORMS...OR IF IT TRACKS MORE
TO THE WEST AND STAYS LONGER OVER WATER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/1500Z 20.5N 78.6W 45 KT
12HR VT 18/0000Z 21.3N 80.0W 50 KT
24HR VT 18/1200Z 22.9N 81.4W 55 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 19/0000Z 24.5N 82.0W 60 KT...OVER WATER
48HR VT 19/1200Z 26.2N 82.2W 70 KT
72HR VT 20/1200Z 29.5N 82.0W 50 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 21/1200Z 32.5N 81.5W 35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 22/1200Z 36.0N 81.5W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

WTNT31 KNHC 171751
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

...FAY MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH
OF OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA
BAY...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM CARD SOUND BRIDGE
WESTWARD TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE PROVINCES OF
LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA EASTWARD TO SANCTI SPIRITUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE
PROVINCES OF LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA EASTWARD TO
GUANTANAMO...AND ALSO FOR CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AND FOR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA IS
DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.8 WEST OR ABOUT
135 MILES...215 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 285
MILES...460 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...FAY HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...27 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
AND A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...
WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON MONDAY. FAY IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA TODAY...CROSS WESTERN CUBA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING...AND MOVE NEAR THE FLORIDA
KEYS MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
FAY COULD BE APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES WESTERN
CUBA. ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE AS FAY CROSSES CUBA...FAY
IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER MUCH OF CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE NORTHERN CAYMAN
ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER GRAND
CAYMAN AND OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. HEAVY RAIN
MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA LATER TODAY
AND INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH
FLORIDA.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...20.8 N...79.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/BROWN

[HURAKAN]

226
WTNT31 KNHC 171754
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

...CORRECTED TO ADD AIRCRAFT PRESSURE...

...FAY MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH
OF OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA
BAY...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM CARD SOUND BRIDGE
WESTWARD TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE PROVINCES OF
LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA EASTWARD TO SANCTI SPIRITUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE
PROVINCES OF LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA EASTWARD TO
GUANTANAMO...AND ALSO FOR CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AND FOR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA IS
DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.8 WEST OR ABOUT
135 MILES...215 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 285
MILES...460 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...FAY HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...27 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
AND A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...
WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON MONDAY. FAY IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA TODAY...CROSS WESTERN CUBA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING...AND MOVE NEAR THE FLORIDA
KEYS MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
FAY COULD BE APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES WESTERN
CUBA. ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE AS FAY CROSSES CUBA...FAY
IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE
FLORIDA KEYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER MUCH OF CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE NORTHERN CAYMAN
ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER GRAND
CAYMAN AND OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. HEAVY RAIN
MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA LATER TODAY
AND INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH
FLORIDA.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...20.8 N...79.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/BROWN

[cycloneye]

WTNT21 KNHC 172033
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
2100 UTC SUN AUG 17 2008

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH ON THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO TARPON SPRINGS. A HURRICANE
WATCH IS IN NOW EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF OCEAN
REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND
ALONG THE FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO TARPON
SPRINGS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE PROVINCES OF
LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA EASTWARD TO SANCTI SPIRITUS.

AT 5 PM...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND ISLA DE LA
JUVENTUD...AND HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA FROM THE PROVINCE OF LAS TUNAS EASTWARD. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM
CAMAGUEY WESTWARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CAYMAN BRAC AND
LITTLE CAYMAN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA
BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AND FOR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF FAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 80.2W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 80.2W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 79.8W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 22.3N 81.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 23.8N 82.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 25.3N 83.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 27.0N 83.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 30.0N 83.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 75SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 33.5N 82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 37.0N 82.0W...INLAND REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 80.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

WTNT31 KNHC 172040
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

...FAY MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF CENTRAL CUBA...MORE
CHANGES TO THE WARNINGS AND WATCHES...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH ON THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO TARPON SPRINGS. A HURRICANE
WATCH IS IN NOW EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF OCEAN
REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND
ALONG THE FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO TARPON
SPRINGS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE PROVINCES OF
LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA EASTWARD TO SANCTI SPIRITUS.

AT 5 PM...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND ISLA DE LA
JUVENTUD...AND HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA FROM THE PROVINCE OF LAS TUNAS EASTWARD. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM
CAMAGUEY WESTWARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CAYMAN BRAC AND
LITTLE CAYMAN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA
BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AND FOR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF FAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST OR ABOUT 205
MILES...335 KM...SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA AND ABOUT 270 MILES...435
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...FAY IS EXPECTED CROSS WESTERN CUBA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING...AND MOVE NEAR THE FLORIDA
KEYS MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND FAY COULD BE APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT
REACHES WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND WHEN IT APPROACHES THE FLORIDA
KEYS MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
OF CUBA IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE
WINDS. TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA
KEYS IN THE WARNING AREA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER MUCH OF CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER GRAND CAYMAN AND OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. HEAVY RAIN MAY
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...21.0 N...80.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

WTNT41 KNHC 172105
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

FAY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANZIED IN SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASED CURVED BANDS OF CONVECTION
NEAR THE CENTER IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER...THERE
ARE SINGS OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...WHERE THERE IS LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION OR STRONG WINDS. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 1003 MB...ALTHOUGH THE PLANE HAS NOT YET SAMPLED THE
WINDS IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
45 KT BASED ON CONTINUITY AND A 45 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE
FROM TAFB.

THE CENTER OF FAY SURGED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE
DAY...AT ONE TIME MOVING BETWEEN 18-20 KT. THAT MOTION APPEARS TO
HAVE ENDED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS A SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN 300/13. FAY IS APPROACHING A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN A
LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH IS DEVELOPING
DUE TO A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW FAY TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD AFTER 24 HR...
BUT THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS ON
HOW MUCH OF A TURN WILL OCCUR. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS
CONTINUE TO FORECAST A SHARPER TURN WITH LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN
FLORIDA...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING FAY CROSSING TO THE ATLANTIC THEN
MOVING WESTWARD TO HIT FLORIDA AGAIN. THE GFS AND GFDL HAVE
SHIFTED WEST SINCE THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS...WHILE THE UKMET HAS
SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST. THESE MODELS HAVE JOINED THE HWRF IN
CALLING FOR A TRACK NEAR OR JUST OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THE NOGAPS CONTINUES TO FORECAST A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST SINCE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...
POSSIBLY DUE TO THE CHANGE IN THE INITIAL POSITION CAUSED BY THE
MOTION SURGE. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED ABOUT 60 N MI TO THE
WEST OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...BUT LIES TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS. THE NEW TRACK
IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE HWRF.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. THE SHIPS MODEL NOW
FORECASTS PERSISTENT WIND SHEAR DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
PERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHTER SHEAR FROM 18-48 HR. THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS HAVE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS FOR THE CURRENT UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WEST OF FAY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN...WITH
NO CLEAR EVIDENCE AT THIS TIME OF WHICH IS CORRECT. IT APPEARS THE
SHEAR WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FAY TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AS
SHOWN IN THE GFDL MODEL...AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS
FOR INTENSIFICATION ALONG THOSE LINES. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE
HWRF CALLS FOR FAY TO BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL FORECAST A PEAK JUST
BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH.

THE FORECAST TRACK SITUATION IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF HURRICANE CHARELY
FROM AUGUST 2004...IN THAT A SMALL CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THE STORM
COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE EVETUAL LANDFALL LOCATION. THE
NHC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES PRODUCT SHOWS ABOUT AN EQUAL CHANCE OF
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE ENTIRE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/2100Z 21.0N 80.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 18/0600Z 22.3N 81.7W 50 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 18/1800Z 23.8N 82.8W 55 KT...OVER WATER
36HR VT 19/0600Z 25.3N 83.1W 65 KT
48HR VT 19/1800Z 27.0N 83.2W 75 KT
72HR VT 20/1800Z 30.0N 83.0W 65 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 21/1800Z 33.5N 82.0W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 22/1800Z 37.0N 82.0W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[JonathanBelles]

The need some spell check!

[cycloneye]

The need some spell check!

Yes a typo.

[cycloneye]

WTNT31 KNHC 172345
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

...FAY MOVING SLOWER...HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF
OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA
BAY...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM CARD SOUND BRIDGE
WESTWARD TO TARPON SPRINGS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE PROVINCES OF
LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA EASTWARD TO SANCTI SPIRITUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM
CAMAGUEY WESTWARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CAYMAN BRAC AND
LITTLE CAYMAN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA
BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AND FOR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF FAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.3 WEST OR ABOUT 200
MILES...330 KM...SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA AND ABOUT 265 MILES...430
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

FAY HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY AND SOMEWHAT ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED MONDAY
OR MONDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...FAY IS EXPECTED CROSS
WESTERN CUBA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING...AND MOVE NEAR
THE FLORIDA KEYS MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND FAY COULD BE APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT
REACHES WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY AND WHEN IT APPROACHES
THE FLORIDA KEYS LATE MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST OF CUBA IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WINDS. TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN THE WARNING AREA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER MUCH OF CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER GRAND CAYMAN AND OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. HEAVY RAIN MAY
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA.

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...21.0 N...80.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

[cycloneye]

WTNT21 KNHC 180238
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
0300 UTC MON AUG 18 2008

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF
TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND
ALONG THE FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO
TARPON SPRINGS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE PROVINCES OF
LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA EASTWARD TO SANCTI SPIRITUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM
CAMAGUEY WESTWARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CAYMAN BRAC AND
LITTLE CAYMAN.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED
EASTWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS TO OCEAN REEF. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO
KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AND
FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF FAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 80.6W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 80.6W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 80.3W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 22.3N 81.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.8N 82.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 25.3N 82.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 27.0N 82.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 30.5N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 34.0N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 37.5N 82.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 80.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

WTNT31 KNHC 180240
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

...FAY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...SOON TO MOVE OVER CUBA...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF
TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND
ALONG THE FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO
TARPON SPRINGS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE PROVINCES OF
LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA EASTWARD TO SANCTI SPIRITUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM
CAMAGUEY WESTWARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CAYMAN BRAC AND
LITTLE CAYMAN.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED
EASTWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS TO OCEAN REEF. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF
TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AND
FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF FAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.6 WEST OR ABOUT 170
MILES...275 KM...SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA AND ABOUT 235 MILES...375
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 1 TO 2 DAYS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...FAY IS EXPECTED TO CROSS WESTERN CUBA EARLY ON
MONDAY AND MOVE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER CROSSES
CUBA...AND FAY COULD BE APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT
NEARS THE FLORIDA KEYS MONDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

STORM TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST OF CUBA IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WINDS. TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN THE WARNING AREA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER MUCH OF CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER GRAND CAYMAN AND OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. HEAVY RAIN MAY
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...21.4 N...80.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

[cycloneye]

WTNT41 KNHC 180253
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008

AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS NEAR 0000 UTC SHOWED LITTLE MOTION
SINCE THE EARLIER FIXES. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CUBAN RADAR
DATA IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS ILL-DEFINED AT THE
MOMENT...AND SURFACE SYNOPTIC DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION IS
SOMEWHAT ELONGATED FROM EAST TO WEST. STRONGEST CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING JUST TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER.
INITIAL MOTION IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 305/9. THE TRACK FORECAST
REASONING IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM EARLIER TODAY. FAY IS LIKELY
TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE. NOAA G-IV JET DATA SHOW MID-TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALLS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHICH ALSO SUPPORTS A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH. SOME OF THE TRACK MODELS SUCH AS THE GFDL MODEL HAVE
SHIFTED...ONCE AGAIN...TO THE EAST. THERE HAVE OBVIOUSLY BEEN SOME
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY PROBLEMS WITH OUR TRACK GUIDANCE...BUT THIS
IS OFTEN THE CASE FOR WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE MODEL INITIAL
CONDITIONS. I HAVE NOT MADE MUCH OF A CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WHICH REMAINS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

WE HAVE BEEN CARRYING 45 KT FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY SINCE EARLIER
TODAY ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENTLY OBSERVED FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS TO SUPPORT THIS VALUE. HOWEVER IT IS BELIEVED THAT THESE
WINDS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING IN THE STRONG CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTER WHICH WAS NOT SAMPLED BY THE AIRCRAFT. AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS IMPEDING THE
OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND MAY
EVEN BE CAUSING SOME UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE STORM. ON
THE OTHER HAND...THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL DECREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREFORE SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST WHILE FAY IS OVER WATER DURING THE
EARLIER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY 48 HOURS OR SO...SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO INCREASE...AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT
INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE
LATEST GFDL AND HWRF MODEL PREDICTIONS. IT SHOULD BE ADDED THAT
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST HOWEVER.

IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK. A BETTER
WAY OF ASSESSING YOUR RISK IS TO MAKE USE OF THE WIND SPEED
PROBABILITIES. THESE DO NOT CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR GIVEN
LOCATIONS WHEN SMALL ADJUSTMENTS ARE MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0300Z 21.4N 80.6W 45 KT
12HR VT 18/1200Z 22.3N 81.7W 50 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 19/0000Z 23.8N 82.7W 55 KT
36HR VT 19/1200Z 25.3N 82.8W 65 KT
48HR VT 20/0000Z 27.0N 82.8W 70 KT
72HR VT 21/0000Z 30.5N 82.5W 50 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 22/0000Z 34.0N 82.5W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 23/0000Z 37.5N 82.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

[RL3AO]

737
WTNT31 KNHC 180850
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...FAY CROSSING CENTRAL CUBA...NEW WARNINGS ISSUED FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG
THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
SOUTH OF OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND
FLORIDA BAY.

AT 5 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF
JUPITER INLET TO SEBASTIAN INLET.

AT 5 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF
OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA
BAY...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM CARD SOUND BRIDGE
WESTWARD TO TARPON SPRINGS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE PROVINCES OF
LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA EASTWARD TO SANCTI SPIRITUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM
CAMAGUEY WESTWARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CAYMAN BRAC AND
LITTLE CAYMAN.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF FAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED INLAND OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR LATITUDE 22.5
NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.9 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES...170
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA AND ABOUT 155 MILES ...250
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A
TURN TO THE NORTH EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. THE CENTER OF FAY SHOULD BE
EMERGING INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS LATER THIS MORNING...AND BE VERY
NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THE CENTER OF FAY
EMERGES OVER WATER. FAY IS FORECAST TO BE APPROACHING HURRICANE
STRENGTH IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT
REACHES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER MUCH OF CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

STORM TIDES ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA WILL BE DIMINISHING TODAY.
TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...22.5 N...80.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BERG








735
WTNT21 KNHC 180850
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
0900 UTC MON AUG 18 2008

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG
THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
SOUTH OF OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND
FLORIDA BAY.

AT 5 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF
JUPITER INLET TO SEBASTIAN INLET.

AT 5 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF
OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA
BAY...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM CARD SOUND BRIDGE
WESTWARD TO TARPON SPRINGS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE PROVINCES OF
LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA EASTWARD TO SANCTI SPIRITUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM
CAMAGUEY WESTWARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CAYMAN BRAC AND
LITTLE CAYMAN.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF FAY.


TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 80.9W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 80.9W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 80.8W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 23.5N 81.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 25.1N 82.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 26.6N 82.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 28.2N 82.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 31.1N 82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 33.0N 82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 35.5N 82.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 80.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[HURAKAN]

038
WTNT31 KNHC 181149
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
800 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS FAY IS A LITTLE STRONGER...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO
KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF
OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA
BAY...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM CARD SOUND BRIDGE
WESTWARD TO TARPON SPRINGS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO
SEBASTIAN INLET.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE PROVINCES OF
LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA EASTWARD TO SANCTI SPIRITUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM
CAMAGUEY WESTWARD.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200 UTC...ALL WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE DISCONTINUED
FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF FAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN COAST OF WESTERN CUBA NEAR LATITUDE 23.2
NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.2 WEST OR JUST NORTHEAST OF VARADERO CUBA.
THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 80 MILES...125 KM...EAST OF HAVANA CUBA
AND ABOUT 100 MILES...160 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A
TURN TO THE NORTH EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. THE CENTER OF FAY SHOULD BE
EMERGING INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND BE
VERY NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 60 MPH...100 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER OF
FAY MOVES OVER WATER. FAY IS FORECAST TO BE APPROACHING HURRICANE
STRENGTH IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT
REACHES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER MUCH OF CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

STORM TIDES ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA WILL BE DIMINISHING TODAY.
TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...23.2 N...81.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/FRANKLIN

[MusicCityMan]

I got a feeling we may end up seeing some rapid intensifying here.. I hope I'm wrong but we will see..