Tropical Depression Fay HPC Advisories

[HURAKAN]

960
WTNT41 KNHC 181504
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

THE CENTER OF FAY HAS MOVED INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA SHOW STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE STORM...BUT LITTLE ACTIVITY IN THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. THIS ASYMMETRY IS LIKELY DUE TO WESTERLY VERTICAL
SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 61 KT...WITH
RELIABLE-LOOKING SFMR WINDS OF 45-50 KT. BASED ON THIS AND
SIMILAR DOPPLER RADAR WINDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO
50 KT. THE LATEST MINIMUM PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE
HUNTER IS 1003 MB.

FAY HAS BEEN MOVING IN FITS AND STARTS FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH THE CENTER MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
DURING THE PAST 6 HR. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 335/11. FAY IS
ENTERING A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND FLORIDA CAUSED BY A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. BEYOND 36-48 HR...THE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT...WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AHEAD OF A SECOND TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES. MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE
RESPONDS TO THIS EVOLUTION BY FORECASTING FAY TO MOVE GENERALLY
NORTHWARD NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH FORECAST FAY TO
TURN NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC AND STALL BY 120 HR...WHILE
THE NOGAPS CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A MORE WESTERLY MOTION TOWARD THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER NOTED
THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
OPERATIONAL RUNS...SO THESE OUTLIERS ARE IGNORED FOR THE MOMENT.
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL FOLLOW THE NORTHWARD SCENARIO...LYING
JUST A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE CENTER OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA IN A LITTLE OVER 24 HR.

FAY IS IN A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...AND
THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN LESS THAN IDEAL FOR THE
NEXT 24-48 HR. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE DRY AIR AND THE CURRENT
STRUCTURE...WILL LIKELY PREVENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING...WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF
MODELS MAKING FAY A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. THUS...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL FOLLOW SUIT. AFTER LANDFALL...FAY SHOULD
SLOWLY WEAKEN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 120 HR. THIS INTENSITY
FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE...AND THERE IS A DISTINCT CHANCE FAY
MIGHT NOT REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL...ESPECIALLY IF
IT MOVES TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT...SIMILAR TO CHARLEY IN 2004...SMALL
DEVIATIONS FROM THE FORECAST TRACK COULD MAKE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN
WHEN AND WHERE THE CENTER OF FAY MAKES LANDFALL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/1500Z 23.6N 81.5W 50 KT
12HR VT 19/0000Z 24.6N 81.8W 55 KT
24HR VT 19/1200Z 26.2N 82.1W 65 KT
36HR VT 20/0000Z 27.8N 82.0W 50 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 20/1200Z 29.3N 81.8W 40 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 21/1200Z 31.5N 81.5W 35 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 22/1200Z 33.6N 81.5W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 23/1200Z 35.5N 82.5W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

101
WTNT21 KNHC 181438
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1500 UTC MON AUG 18 2008

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 11 AM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO COCOA BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM COCOA BEACH
SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST EAST OF FLAMINGO...
INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE FLORIDA MAINLAND EAST OF FLAMINGO TO CARD SOUND BRIDGE...AND
ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF ANNA MARIA TO TARPON SPRINGS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG
THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF COCOA BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED
ALL WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR CUBA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 81.5W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 65NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 81.5W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 81.2W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 24.6N 81.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 45SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 26.2N 82.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 27.8N 82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 29.3N 81.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 31.5N 81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 33.6N 81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 35.5N 82.5W...INLAND REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.6N 81.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

WTNT31 KNHC 181754
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
200 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...CENTER OF FAY APPROACHING KEY WEST...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
SPREADING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
FROM COCOA BEACH SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST EAST
OF FLAMINGO...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE FLORIDA MAINLAND EAST OF FLAMINGO TO CARD SOUND BRIDGE...AND
ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF ANNA MARIA ISLAND TO TARPON
SPRINGS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
NORTH OF COCOA BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.6 WEST OR ABOUT
20 MILES...30 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...23 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH A GENERALLY NORTHWARD MOTION EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY SHOULD PASS OVER
THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND BE NEAR THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND FAY IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER. THE NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT SOMBRERO KEY FLORIDA
RECENTLY REPORTED 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 52 MPH...83 KM/HR...
AND A WIND GUST OF 62 MPH...100 KM/HR...AT AN ELEVATION OF 159
FEET. KEY WEST RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 47 MPH...76 KM/HR.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1002 MB...29.62 INCHES.

STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR THE CENTER OF FAY. TIDES OF 2
TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER MUCH OF CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...24.3 N...81.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/BROWN

[cycloneye]

238
WTNT21 KNHC 182034
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
2100 UTC MON AUG 18 2008

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 5 PM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM FLAGLER BEACH
SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF ANNA MARIA ISLAND TO TARPON
SPRINGS. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH IS DISCONTINUED FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS...AND FOR THE FLORIDA MAINLAND EAST OF FLAMINGO TO CARD
SOUND BRIDGE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 81.9W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......110NE 90SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 81.9W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 81.7W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 25.8N 82.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 45SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 27.4N 81.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 28.8N 81.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 30.0N 81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 31.0N 81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 32.0N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 33.0N 84.0W...INLAND REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 81.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

087
WTNT31 KNHC 182041
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 5 PM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM FLAGLER BEACH
SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF ANNA MARIA ISLAND TO TARPON
SPRINGS. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH IS DISCONTINUED FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY
TORTUGAS...AND FOR THE FLORIDA MAINLAND EAST OF FLAMINGO TO CARD
SOUND BRIDGE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.9 WEST OR NEAR KEY WEST
FLORIDA AND ABOUT 145 MILES...235 KM...SOUTH OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A GENERALLY NORTHWARD MOTION TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF FAY AWAY
FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT...AND NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF FLORIDA ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND FAY IS
FORECAST TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER. THE NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT SOMBRERO KEY FLORIDA
RECENTLY REPORTED 2-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 60 MPH...96 KM/HR...AND
AN ELEVATION OF 159 FEET. THE NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT SAND KEY
FLORIDA RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 71 MPH...115 KM/HR...AT AN
ELEVATION OF 149 FT.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE
IN KEY WEST IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR THE CENTER OF FAY. TIDES OF 2
TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO
5 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF CUBA...WITH STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES BEING POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE
THREATENING FLASH-FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS..AND
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...24.6 N...81.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

WTNT41 KNHC 182104
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

SATELLITE...RADAR...AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT FAY HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS
INCREASED AROUND THE CENTER...AND THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS HAS
CONTRACTED TO ABOUT 30 N MI. ADDITIONALLY...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
HAS FALLEN TO 998 MB. HOWEVER...THIS HAS NOT YET CAUSED THE WINDS
TO INCREASE...AS AIRCRAFT...RADAR...AND SURFACE DATA SUGGEST THE
MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN ABOUT 50 KT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A TCU
WAS ISSUED NOTING LANDFALL WHEN THE WINDS AT KEY WEST WENT CALM AT
3 PM. LATER DATA SUGGESTS THIS WAS DUE TO A MESOSCALE FEATURE
ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER CENTER OF THE STORM...AND THE TRUE
CENTER OF FAY IS OVER KEY WEST NOW.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/10. FAY IS ENTERING A BREAK IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA
CAUSED BY A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. BEYOND 36-48 HR...THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT
OUT...WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES AHEAD OF A SECOND TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN RESPONDING TO
THIS PATTERN. THE NOGAPS CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND INLAND
THEREAFTER. THE UKMET HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST AND
FORECASTS A NORTHWARD MOTION THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH A
SHARP TURN TO THE WEST AFTER 72 HR. THE CANADIAN MODEL HAS A
SIMILAR FORECAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF CALL FOR FAY TO TURN
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC...FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD TURN AND
MOTION BACK INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA AFTER 72 HR. FINALLY...THE GFDL
AND THE HWRF CONTINUE FOR A GENERALLY NORTHWARD MOTION WELL INLAND
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. GIVEN THE INCREASING SIGNAL FROM
THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT NEW RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL BLOCK FAY'S
PROGRESS...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A SLOWER AND MORE
WESTWARD MOTION AFTER 72 HR. THE EARLIER PART OF THE TRACK...WHICH
CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA IN ABOUT 18 HR FOLLOWED
BY A TRACK OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE
EAST AND LIES NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

WHILE FAY REMAINS IN A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT AND IS BATTLING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...THESE CONDITIONS
ARE NOT SEVERE ENOUGH TO PREVENT STRENGTHENING. THUS...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING UNTIL LANDFALL. WHILE
NOT EXPLICITLY A FORECAST POINT...IT IS LIKELY THAT FAY WILL MAKE
LANDFALL AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH. AFTER 24 HR...THE
INTENSITY WILL DEPEND MAINLY ON WHETHER FAY IS OVER LAND...AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON FAY REMAINING OVER LAND AND THUS
DISSIPATING. IF FAY REGAINS THE ATLANTIC OR THE GULF OF MEXICO
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN STRONGER THAN
FORECAST.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT...SIMILAR TO CHARLEY IN 2004...SMALL
DEVIATIONS FROM THE FORECAST TRACK COULD MAKE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN
WHEN AND WHERE THE CENTER OF FAY MAKES LANDFALL ON THE FLORIDA
COAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/2100Z 24.6N 81.9W 50 KT
12HR VT 19/0600Z 25.8N 82.0W 60 KT
24HR VT 19/1800Z 27.4N 81.9W 55 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 20/0600Z 28.8N 81.7W 40 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 20/1800Z 30.0N 81.5W 35 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 21/1800Z 31.0N 81.5W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 22/1800Z 32.0N 82.5W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 23/1800Z 33.0N 84.0W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

WTNT31 KNHC 182353
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
800 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...FAY HEADED NORTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF ANNA MARIA ISLAND TO TARPON SPRINGS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
FROM FLAGLER BEACH SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS...AND FOR THE
FLORIDA MAINLAND EAST OF FLAMINGO TO CARD SOUND BRIDGE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.9 WEST OR ABOUT 105
MILES...170 KM...SOUTH OF NAPLES FLORIDA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY WILL CROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF FLORIDA ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND FAY IS
FORECAST TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.

STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR THE CENTER OF FAY. TIDES OF 2
TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO
5 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF CUBA...WITH STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES BEING POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE
THREATENING FLASH-FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY OVER SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL FLORIDA.

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...25.0 N...81.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/RHOME

[cycloneye]

WTNT21 KNHC 190250
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
0300 UTC TUE AUG 19 2008

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST NORTH OF ANNA MARIA ISLAND TO TARPON SPRINGS IS DISCONTINUED.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
FROM FLAGLER BEACH SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS...AND FOR THE
FLORIDA MAINLAND EAST OF FLAMINGO TO CARD SOUND BRIDGE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY.


TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 81.9W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......110NE 90SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 81.9W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 81.9W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 26.6N 81.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 28.1N 81.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 29.2N 81.0W...ON COAST
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 30.3N 81.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 31.0N 81.5W...ON COAST
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 32.0N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 32.0N 84.0W...INLAND...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.3N 81.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

WTNT31 KNHC 190253
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

...FAY CONTINUES HEADING FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST NORTH OF ANNA MARIA ISLAND TO TARPON SPRINGS IS DISCONTINUED.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
FROM FLAGLER BEACH SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS...AND FOR THE
FLORIDA MAINLAND EAST OF FLAMINGO TO CARD SOUND BRIDGE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.9 WEST OR ABOUT 60
MILES...95 KM...SOUTH OF NAPLES FLORIDA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND A
SLIGHTLY EAST OF NORTH MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INLAND OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FAY COULD STILL APPROACH HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO
LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS LIKELY WHILE FAY MOVES OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER. A WIND GUST OF 59 MPH...94 KM/HR...WAS RECENTLY
REPORTED AT AN ELEVATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SITE AT FLAMINGO.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.

STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR THE CENTER OF FAY. TIDES OF 2
TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF CUBA...WITH STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES BEING POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE
THREATENING FLASH-FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY OVER SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL FLORIDA.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...25.3 N...81.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/RHOME

[lebron23]

...Fay continues heading for the southwest Florida coast...
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the southwestern coast of
Florida from Flamingo to Anna Maria Island. A Hurricane Warning
means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning
area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and
property should have been completed.

At 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...the Hurricane Watch for the Florida West
Coast north of Anna Maria Island to Tarpon Springs is discontinued.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for this area.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect along the Florida East Coast
from Flagler Beach southward...including Lake Okeechobee.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Florida Keys from
Ocean Reef to Key West...including the Dry Tortugas...and for the
Florida Mainland east of Flamingo to Card Sound bridge.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the Florida East Coast
north of Flagler Beach to Fernandina Beach.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for the northwestern Bahamas.

Interests elsewhere in Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico should
monitor the progress of Fay.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 1100 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Tropical Storm Fay was
located near latitude 25.3 north...longitude 81.9 west or about 60
miles...95 km...south of Naples Florida.

Fay is moving toward the north near 9 mph...15 km/hr...and a
slightly east of north motion is expected over the next day or two.
On this track the center will cross the coast of southwest Florida
Tuesday morning and continue inland over central Florida later on
Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph...95 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Fay could still approach hurricane strength prior to
landfall. Weakening is likely while Fay moves over the Florida
Peninsula.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles...205 km
from the center. A wind gust of 59 mph...94 km/hr...was recently
reported at an elevated National Weather Service site at Flamingo.

An Air Force hurricane hunter plane reported a minimum central
pressure of 995 mb...29.38 inches.
Storm tides of 3 to 5 feet above normal are possible along the
southwestern coast of Florida near the center of Fay. Tides of 2
to 4 ft above normal are possible in the Florida Keys.

Fay is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 1 to
3 inches over the central portion of Cuba...with storm total
amounts of 20 inches being possible. These rains could cause life
threatening flash-floods and mud slides. Rainfall accumulations of
4 to 8 inches...with maximum storm total amounts of 10 inches...are
possible for the Florida Keys and the central and southern Florida
Peninsula. Rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are possible in
the northwestern Bahamas.

Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight and Tuesday over southern
and central Florida.

Repeating the 1100 PM EDT position...25.3 N...81.9 W. Movement
toward...north near 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds...60 mph.
Minimum central pressure...995 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 200 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 500
am EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Rhome

[cycloneye]

WTNT41 KNHC 190255
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008

FAY'S ORGANIZATION HAS WAXED AND WANED THIS EVENING. THE STORM
BECAME QUITE DISORGANIZED IN APPEARANCE ON WSR-88D RADAR
OBSERVATIONS FROM KEY WEST AND MIAMI EARLIER THIS EVENING...AND THEN
SHOWED INCREASED SPIRAL BANDING BUT NO CLOSED EYEWALL STRUCTURE.
AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A FALL IN CENTRAL
PRESSURE BUT NO INCREASE IN FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS YET. THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN A DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ENVIRONMENT ON
THE EAST SIDE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OR CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS AND
THIS ENVIRONMENT IS ALSO IMPARTING MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER
FAY. NONETHELESS...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR FAY TO STRENGTHEN
INTO A HURRICANE PRIOR TO CROSSING THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. OUR
FORECAST FOR FAY'S WEAKENING OVER THE PENINSULA MORE OR LESS
FOLLOWS THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL.

AIRCRAFT AND RADAR FIXES YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION NEAR 360/8. FAY IS
MOVING BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO ITS EAST AND A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS WEST AND NORTHWEST. SOME OF THE
DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE GFDL...HWRF...AND U.K. MET
OFFICE MODELS...HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST FOR FAY'S TREK
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ALSO
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT. AFTER 1-2 DAYS...GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE STEERING PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN AS A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND BLOCKS THE
FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THERE IS GREAT DIVERSITY
IN THE OBJECTIVE TRACK FORECASTS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD...AND THEREFORE LARGER THAN USUAL UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE
FAY WILL EVENTUALLY GO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ROUGHLY IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE HIGHLY SPREAD MODEL TRACKS. THE FORECAST OF
FAY'S INTENSITY IN THE 72-120 HOUR TIME FRAME IS OF COURSE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER WATER. SHOULD FAY
REMAIN VERY NEAR OR OVER LAND...IT WOULD PROBABLY WEAKEN TO
DISSIPATION SOONER THAN SHOWN HERE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0300Z 25.3N 81.9W 50 KT
12HR VT 19/1200Z 26.6N 81.7W 55 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 20/0000Z 28.1N 81.3W 40 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 20/1200Z 29.2N 81.0W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 21/0000Z 30.3N 81.0W 40 KT
72HR VT 22/0000Z 31.0N 81.5W 45 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 23/0000Z 32.0N 82.5W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 24/0000Z 32.0N 84.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/PASCH

[HURAKAN]

545
WTNT31 KNHC 190558
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH YET AS FAY APPROACHES THE SOUTHWEST COAST
OF FLORIDA......

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
FROM ANNA MARIA ISLAND TO TARPON SPRINGS...ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST FROM FLAGLER BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY
WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.8 WEST OR ABOUT 45
MILES...70 KM...SOUTH OF NAPLES FLORIDA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...12 KM/HR. A MOTION JUST
EAST OF DUE NORTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL...WITH A
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL REACH THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE INLAND OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FAY COULD STILL APPROACH HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO
LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS LIKELY WHILE FAY MOVES OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH WERE RECENTLY REPORTED
AT THE CMAN STATION AT MOLASSES REEF.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR THE CENTER OF FAY. TIDES OF 2
TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF CUBA...WITH STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES BEING POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE
THREATENING FLASH-FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA.

REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...25.5 N...81.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Thunder44]

...Fay making landfall at Cape Romano...
At 5 am EDT...0900 UTC...all hurricane warnings are discontinued.

At 5 am EDT...a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect along the West
Coast of Florida from the middle of Longboat Key southward...and
along the East Coast of Florida from Flagler Beach southward...
including Lake Okeechobee...and for the Florida Keys from Ocean
Reef to the west end of the Seven Mile Bridge...including Florida
Bay. All tropical storm warnings elsewhere are discontinued.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the Florida East Coast
north of Flagler Beach to Fernandina Beach.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for the northwestern Bahamas.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 500 am EDT...0900z...the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located
near latitude 25.9 north...longitude 81.7 west...on the Florida
coastline at Cape Romano...or about 55 miles... 90 km...south of
ft. Myers Florida.

Fay is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph...15 km/hr...and
this motion is expected to continue today...taking the center of Fay
across the Florida Peninsula. A decrease in forward speed and a
turn to the north is expected on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph...95 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Slow weakening is expected as Fay moves inland.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles...205 km
from the center.

The minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance aircraft was
989 mb...29.21 inches.

Fay is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8
inches...with maximum storm total amounts of 10 inches across the
southern and east-central Florida Peninsula. Accumulations of 3 to
5 inches are possible in the northwestern Bahamas.
Storm tides of 3 to 5 feet above normal are possible along the
southwestern coast of Florida near the center of Fay. Tides of 2
to 4 ft above normal are possible in the Florida Keys.
Isolated tornadoes are possible today over southern and central
Florida.
Repeating the 500 am EDT position...25.9 N...81.7 W. Movement
toward...north-northeast near 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds...60
mph. Minimum central pressure...989 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 800 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
am EDT.

$$
Forecaster Franklin

[Thunder44]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 190902
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

SFMR...DROPSONDE...AND FLIGHT-LEVEL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT FAY
DID NOT STRENGTHEN MUCH...IF AT ALL...BEFORE COMING ASHORE. A
DROPSONDE REPORTED A SURFACE WIND OF 49 KT...AND THERE WERE
BELIEVABLE 49 KT WINDS FROM THE SFMR. THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND
OBSERVED WAS 61 KT. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS...THE INTENSITY IS
SET AT 50 KT. THERE WERE A FEW SFMR WINDS ABOUT 5 KT HIGHER THAT
MIGHT OR MIGHT NOT HAVE BEEN CORRECT...BUT IN ANY EVENT FAY DIDN'T
MAKE IT TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. FAY SHOULD WEAKEN SLOWLY AS IT
CROSSES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. IF THE CENTER DOES EMERGE INTO THE
ATLANTIC AS FORECAST...FAY WILL FIND ITSELF IN A MORE FAVORABLE
ANTICYCLONIC UPPER-AIR PATTERN IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...AND SLIGHT
RESTRENGTHENING IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 025/8. OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO A CONSENSUS
HAS BEEN BUILDING ON FAY BEING TRAPPED BENEATH A MIGRATORY
MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERLIES...WITH EVEN THE GFDL
BEGINNING TO BACK OFF ON A PROLONGED NORTHWARD MOTION. THE
GUIDANCE IS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW SHOWS A SLIGHTLY SHARPER SLOWDOWN AND TURN TO
THE WEST...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0900Z 25.9N 81.7W 50 KT...LANDFALL
12HR VT 19/1800Z 27.0N 81.3W 45 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 20/0600Z 28.3N 80.9W 35 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 20/1800Z 29.3N 80.7W 35 KT
48HR VT 21/0600Z 30.0N 81.0W 40 KT
72HR VT 22/0600Z 30.5N 82.0W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 23/0600Z 31.0N 83.5W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 24/0600Z 31.0N 85.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[cycloneye]

WTNT31 KNHC 191146
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...FAY MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA FROM THE MIDDLE OF LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAGLER BEACH SOUTHWARD...
INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN
REEF TO THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA
BAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF
TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED INLAND IN SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR
LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.4 WEST...OR ABOUT 30 MILES...50
KM...EAST SOUTH OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA AND 35 MILES...55 KM SOUTHWEST
OF MOORE HAVEN ON THE WEST SIDE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...TAKING THE CENTER OF FAY
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A
TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS FAY MOVES FARTHER INLAND
TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO
5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR THE CENTER OF FAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...26.5 N...81.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

WTNT41 KNHC 191445
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

DOPPLER RADAR DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT FAY HAS KEPT A
WELL DEFINED PATTERN...AND IN FACT...RADAR SHOWS A RING OF
CONVECTION WHICH RESEMBLES AN EYE FEATURE. DOPPLER VELOCITIES
SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS AND BASED ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 986 MB. FAY IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER LAND FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18
HOURS. THEREAFTER...IT SHOULD REGAIN SOME STRENGTH DURING THE 24 TO
48 HOUR PERIOD WHEN FAY IS FORECAST TO BE OVER WATER JUST OFF THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST. IF FAY MAINTAINS ITS CURRENT STRUCTURE ON
RADAR...THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION COULD BE HIGHER THAN INDICATED.
AT THIS TIME...THE FORECAST INTENSITY FOLLOWS CONTINUITY AND THE
SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL. THE GFDL IS VERY AGGRESSIVE AND MAKES FAY A
STRONGER CYCLONE OVER THE WATER JUST EAST OF NORTH FLORIDA. DO NOT
RULE OUT THIS POSSIBILITY YET.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 015 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS
WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT AND BE REPLACED BY A DEVELOPING RIDGE. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD FIRST WEAKEN THE STEERING CURRENTS..CAUSING FAY TO
SLOW DOWN AND THEN...AS THE RIDGE BECOMES STRONGER...THE CYCLONE
SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD THE NORTH FLORIDA OR
THE GEORGIA COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. GUIDANCE
UNANIMOUSLY TURNS THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE COAST OF NORTH FLORIDA OR
GEORGIA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/1500Z 26.7N 81.3W 50 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 20/0000Z 27.9N 80.9W 45 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 20/1200Z 28.9N 80.6W 40 KT...OVER WATER
36HR VT 21/0000Z 29.5N 80.5W 45 KT...OVER WATER
48HR VT 21/1200Z 30.0N 80.9W 45 KT...OVER WATER
72HR VT 22/1200Z 30.6N 82.5W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 23/1200Z 31.0N 84.0W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 24/1200Z 31.5N 86.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[lebron23]

...Fay refuses to weaken...strong winds battering Lake Okeechobee...

a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect along the East Coast of
Florida from north of Ocean Reef to Flagler Beach...including Lake
Okeechobee.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the Florida East Coast
north of Flagler Beach to Fernandina Beach.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 100 PM EDT...1700z...the center of Tropical Storm Fay was
located near latitude 26.8 north...longitude 81.2 west. This
positions is very near Moore Haven Florida.

Fay is moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph...13 km/hr. This
general motion with a gradual turn to the north and a decrease in
forward speed in expected during the next 24 to 36 hours. On this
track...Fay should move over water near the East Coast of North
Florida on Wednesday.

Surface observations and radar data indicate that maximum sustained
winds are now near 65 mph...105 km/hr...with higher gusts. Some
fluctuations in intensity are likely today as Fay moves inland over
Florida. Some restrengthening is expected once Fay moves back over
water.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles...185 km
from the center. An unofficial observation of 65 mph...105 km/hr
with a gust of 78 mph...125 km/hr was measured in Moore Haven.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb...29.12 inches.

Fay is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10
inches over the southern and east-central Florida Peninsula..with
maximum total amounts of 15 inches. Accumulations of 3 to
5 inches are possible in the northwestern Bahamas.

Storm tides of 1 to 3 feet above normal are possible along the
East Coast of Florida as Fay approaches.

Isolated tornadoes are possible today over the eastern half of the
Florida Peninsula.

Repeating the 100 PM EDT position...26.8 N...81.2 W. Movement
toward...north-northeast near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds...65
mph. Minimum central pressure...986 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 300 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 500
PM EDT.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
300 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...FAY CONTINUES TO BATTER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF OCEAN REEF TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 300 PM EDT...1900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.1 WEST OR ABOUT 15
MILES...30 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF OKEECHOBEE FLORIDA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IN EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...FAY SHOULD MOVE OVER WATER NEAR THE EAST COAST OF NORTH
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...105 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS FAY MOVES INLAND OVER FLORIDA. SOME
RESTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED WHEN FAY MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER. AN UNOFFICIAL REPORT OF A WIND GUST OF 78 MPH...125
KM/HR...WAS MEASURED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE
DURING THE PAST HOUR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA..WITH
MAXIMUM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

STORM TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AS FAY APPROACHES.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 300 PM EDT POSITION...27.1 N...81.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/AVILA

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
2100 UTC TUE AUG 19 2008

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST FROM JUPITER SOUTHWARD HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND...
GEORGIA...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF
ALTAMAHA SOUND TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER.


TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 81.0W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 150SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 81.0W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 81.1W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 28.2N 80.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 29.0N 80.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 29.5N 80.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 30.0N 81.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 30.5N 83.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 31.4N 85.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 32.0N 87.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.3N 81.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

...FAY HEADING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST FROM JUPITER SOUTHWARD HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND...
GEORGIA...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF
ALTAMAHA SOUND TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.0 WEST OR ABOUT 60 MILES...
95 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA.

FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13
KM/HR....AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED
ON WEDNESDAY. THIS TRACK SHOULD BRING FAY OVER WATER NEAR THE EAST
COAST OF NORTH FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER. A SOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT STATION ALONG THE
CENTRAL KISSIMMEE RIVER RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 60
MPH...97 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.

FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA..WITH
MAXIMUM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

STORM TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AS FAY APPROACHES.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...27.3 N...81.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM EDT AND 900 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

WTNT41 KNHC 192043
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

FAY DID NOT WEAKEN OVER LAND AS ANTICIPATED AND IN FACT...IT IS
STRONGER THAN IT HAS EVER BEEN SO FAR. INITIAL INTENSITY IS
CONSERVATIVELY SET AT 55 KNOTS. THIS IS BASED ON SATELLITE...RADAR
AND CONFIRMED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THIS HAS PROMPTED A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. GIVEN THAT FAY HAS
KEPT SUCH A WELL-DEFINED SIGNATURE ON RADAR AND ON SATELLITE...THE
CHANCES THAT THE CYCLONE BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES OVER
THE GULF STREAM EAST OF FLORIDA HAVE INCREASED. THE INTENSIFICATION
IS SUPPORTED BY SHIPS...THE GFDL AND THE HWRF MODELS...AND IS
REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE EYE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH FAY HAS BEEN TRACKED BY SATELLITE
AND NWS DOPPLER RADAR AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION
IS NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 020 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. CURRENTLY FAY IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...THIS STEERING PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO CHANGE SOON AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP
NORTH OF FAY. THIS NEW STEERING PATTERN WILL FORCE FAY TO MOVE
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD THE COAST OF NORTH FLORIDA AND
GEORGIA. FOLLOWING CONTINUITY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A
GRADUAL WEST-NORTHWEST TURN BUT GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A SHARPER
WESTWARD TURN. IF SO...SOME SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST COULD BE REQUIRED LATER ON.

THIS NEW DEVELOPMENT HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WATCH
FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/2100Z 27.3N 81.0W 55 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 20/0600Z 28.2N 80.5W 55 KT...OVER WATER
24HR VT 20/1800Z 29.0N 80.2W 65 KT
36HR VT 21/0600Z 29.5N 80.5W 65 KT
48HR VT 21/1800Z 30.0N 81.4W 65 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 22/1800Z 30.5N 83.0W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 23/1800Z 31.4N 85.5W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 24/1800Z 32.0N 87.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

WTNT51 KNHC 192156
TCEAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
600 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008

AT 6 PM EDT...2200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.9 WEST. THIS
POSITION IS ABOUT 50 MILES...85 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MELBOURNE
FLORIDA.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/RHOME