WTNT31 KNHC 192254
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
700 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008
...FAY CONTINUING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH...AND FOR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF
FLAGLER BEACH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND...GEORGIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND TO
THE SAVANNAH RIVER.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 700 PM EDT...2300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.9 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES...
75 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA.
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11
KM/HR....AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED
ON WEDNESDAY. THIS TRACK SHOULD BRING FAY OVER WATER NEAR THE EAST
COAST OF NORTH FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH MAXIMUM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
15 INCHES. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
STORM TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AS FAY APPROACHES.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE
EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA.
REPEATING THE 700 PM EDT POSITION...27.5 N...80.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 900 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/RHOME
Tropical Depression Fay HPC Advisories
Moderator: S2k Moderators
...Fay slows down and weakens over east-central Florida...
a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect along the East Coast of
Florida from north of Jupiter Inlet to Flagler Beach...and for Lake
Okeechobee.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Florida East Coast north of
Flagler Beach to Altamaha Sound...Georgia.
A tropical storm watch is in effect from north of Altamaha Sound to
the Savannah River.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 900 PM EDT...0100z...the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located
near latitude 27.5 north...longitude 80.9 west or about 45 miles...
75 km...south-southwest of Melbourne Florida.
Fay has moved little over the past couple of hours but a
north-northeastward motion near 6 mph...9 km/hr....is expected
tonight. A gradual turn toward the north with a decrease in
forward speed is expected on Wednesday. This track should bring
Fay over water on Wednesday.
Surface observations and National Weather Service Doppler radar data
indicate that the maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60
mph...95 km/hr...with higher gusts. Some further weakening is
expected overnight but Fay will likely begin to restrengthen when
it moves over the Atlantic waters.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles...220 km
from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb...29.18 inches.
Fay is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches
over the central Florida Peninsula...with maximum total amounts of
15 inches. Accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are possible in the
northwestern Bahamas.
Storm tides of 1 to 3 feet above normal are possible along the
East Coast of Florida as Fay approaches.
Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight over portions of the
east-central Florida Peninsula.
Repeating the 900 PM EDT position...27.5 N...80.9 W.
Movement...nearly stationary. Maximum sustained winds...60
mph. Minimum central pressure...988 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 1100 PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Rhome
a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect along the East Coast of
Florida from north of Jupiter Inlet to Flagler Beach...and for Lake
Okeechobee.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Florida East Coast north of
Flagler Beach to Altamaha Sound...Georgia.
A tropical storm watch is in effect from north of Altamaha Sound to
the Savannah River.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 900 PM EDT...0100z...the center of Tropical Storm Fay was located
near latitude 27.5 north...longitude 80.9 west or about 45 miles...
75 km...south-southwest of Melbourne Florida.
Fay has moved little over the past couple of hours but a
north-northeastward motion near 6 mph...9 km/hr....is expected
tonight. A gradual turn toward the north with a decrease in
forward speed is expected on Wednesday. This track should bring
Fay over water on Wednesday.
Surface observations and National Weather Service Doppler radar data
indicate that the maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60
mph...95 km/hr...with higher gusts. Some further weakening is
expected overnight but Fay will likely begin to restrengthen when
it moves over the Atlantic waters.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles...220 km
from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb...29.18 inches.
Fay is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches
over the central Florida Peninsula...with maximum total amounts of
15 inches. Accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are possible in the
northwestern Bahamas.
Storm tides of 1 to 3 feet above normal are possible along the
East Coast of Florida as Fay approaches.
Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight over portions of the
east-central Florida Peninsula.
Repeating the 900 PM EDT position...27.5 N...80.9 W.
Movement...nearly stationary. Maximum sustained winds...60
mph. Minimum central pressure...988 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 1100 PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Rhome
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cycloneye
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Re: T S Fay Advisories
WTNT21 KNHC 200240
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
0300 UTC WED AUG 20 2008
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH...AND FOR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF
FLAGLER BEACH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND...GEORGIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND TO
THE SAVANNAH RIVER.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 80.7W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 4 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 80.7W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 80.9W
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 28.4N 80.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 29.0N 80.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 29.5N 80.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 45NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 29.9N 81.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 30.5N 83.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 31.0N 85.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 32.0N 87.5W...INLAND...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.7N 80.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/RHOME
WTNT31 KNHC 200241
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008
...FAY WEAKENS SOME MORE WHILE OVER FLORIDA..
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH...AND FOR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF
FLAGLER BEACH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND...GEORGIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND TO
THE SAVANNAH RIVER.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST OR ABOUT 30
MILES... 45 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA.
FAY HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7
KM/HR...OVERNIGHT. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY
WILL MOVE JUST OFFSHORE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. FAY
IS LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA COAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DATA
INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50
MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FURTHER WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT FAY WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO RESTRENGTHEN WHEN
IT MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON WEDNESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...WITH MAXIMUM TOTAL
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
STORM TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AS FAY APPROACHES.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...27.7 N...80.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
WTNT41 KNHC 200242
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008
AFTER FAY'S UNEXPECTED STRENGTHENING EPISODE OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA EARLIER TODAY...THE STORM IS NOW BEHAVING IN A MORE
NORMAL FASHION. THE SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENTATION HAS
DEGRADED...WITH THE EYE NO LONGER EVIDENT...AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO
AROUND 45 KT. FAY WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN A LITTLE MORE WHILE ITS
CENTER IS OVER LAND. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AS DEPICTED
BY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE. THEREFORE FAY
IS LIKELY TO COMMENCE RESTRENGTHENING WHEN IT MOVES BACK OVER WATER
ON WEDNESDAY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY PREDICTION IS SIMILAR TO THE
LATEST SHIPS FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BOTH THE GFDL AND
HWRF MODELS SHOW MORE STRENGTHENING THAN INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. OF COURSE...THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF FAY IS ALSO STRONGLY
DEPENDENT ON HOW LONG THE CENTER STAYS OVER WATER.
RADAR FIXES SHOWED THAT FAY NEARLY STALLED A FEW HOURS AGO...AND
THEN WOBBLED A LITTLE TO THE EAST. CURRENTLY IT APPEARS THAT THE
CENTER IS BACK ON A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK...OR 030/4. GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BUILDING 500 MB RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
FAY OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 DAYS. THIS EVOLUTION OF THE STEERING
PATTERN WOULD BEGIN TO BLOCK THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN ABOUT 48 HOURS. TRACK MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT FAY WILL TURN BACK TOWARD THE COAST AFTER MOVING
JUST OFFSHORE. THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE TO THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST ON THIS PACKAGE. THIS IS CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE SOUTH OF
THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/0300Z 27.7N 80.7W 45 KT
12HR VT 20/1200Z 28.4N 80.3W 50 KT
24HR VT 21/0000Z 29.0N 80.2W 60 KT
36HR VT 21/1200Z 29.5N 80.8W 65 KT
48HR VT 22/0000Z 29.9N 81.7W 65 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 23/0000Z 30.5N 83.5W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 24/0000Z 31.0N 85.5W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 25/0000Z 32.0N 87.5W 20 KT...INLAND...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
0300 UTC WED AUG 20 2008
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH...AND FOR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF
FLAGLER BEACH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND...GEORGIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND TO
THE SAVANNAH RIVER.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 80.7W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 4 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 80.7W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 80.9W
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 28.4N 80.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 29.0N 80.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 29.5N 80.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 45NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 29.9N 81.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 30.5N 83.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 31.0N 85.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 32.0N 87.5W...INLAND...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.7N 80.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/RHOME
WTNT31 KNHC 200241
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008
...FAY WEAKENS SOME MORE WHILE OVER FLORIDA..
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH...AND FOR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF
FLAGLER BEACH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND...GEORGIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND TO
THE SAVANNAH RIVER.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST OR ABOUT 30
MILES... 45 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA.
FAY HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7
KM/HR...OVERNIGHT. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY
WILL MOVE JUST OFFSHORE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. FAY
IS LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA COAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DATA
INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50
MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FURTHER WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT FAY WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO RESTRENGTHEN WHEN
IT MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON WEDNESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...WITH MAXIMUM TOTAL
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
STORM TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AS FAY APPROACHES.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...27.7 N...80.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
WTNT41 KNHC 200242
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008
AFTER FAY'S UNEXPECTED STRENGTHENING EPISODE OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA EARLIER TODAY...THE STORM IS NOW BEHAVING IN A MORE
NORMAL FASHION. THE SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENTATION HAS
DEGRADED...WITH THE EYE NO LONGER EVIDENT...AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO
AROUND 45 KT. FAY WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN A LITTLE MORE WHILE ITS
CENTER IS OVER LAND. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AS DEPICTED
BY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE. THEREFORE FAY
IS LIKELY TO COMMENCE RESTRENGTHENING WHEN IT MOVES BACK OVER WATER
ON WEDNESDAY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY PREDICTION IS SIMILAR TO THE
LATEST SHIPS FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BOTH THE GFDL AND
HWRF MODELS SHOW MORE STRENGTHENING THAN INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. OF COURSE...THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF FAY IS ALSO STRONGLY
DEPENDENT ON HOW LONG THE CENTER STAYS OVER WATER.
RADAR FIXES SHOWED THAT FAY NEARLY STALLED A FEW HOURS AGO...AND
THEN WOBBLED A LITTLE TO THE EAST. CURRENTLY IT APPEARS THAT THE
CENTER IS BACK ON A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK...OR 030/4. GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BUILDING 500 MB RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
FAY OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 DAYS. THIS EVOLUTION OF THE STEERING
PATTERN WOULD BEGIN TO BLOCK THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN ABOUT 48 HOURS. TRACK MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT FAY WILL TURN BACK TOWARD THE COAST AFTER MOVING
JUST OFFSHORE. THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE TO THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST ON THIS PACKAGE. THIS IS CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE SOUTH OF
THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/0300Z 27.7N 80.7W 45 KT
12HR VT 20/1200Z 28.4N 80.3W 50 KT
24HR VT 21/0000Z 29.0N 80.2W 60 KT
36HR VT 21/1200Z 29.5N 80.8W 65 KT
48HR VT 22/0000Z 29.9N 81.7W 65 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 23/0000Z 30.5N 83.5W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 24/0000Z 31.0N 85.5W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 25/0000Z 32.0N 87.5W 20 KT...INLAND...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Re: T S Fay Advisories
000
WTNT31 KNHC 200855
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2008
...FAY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL
FLORIDA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED NORTHWARD...
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET FLORIDA
NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH
FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF ALTAMAHA
SOUND TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.6 WEST OR VERY NEAR
MELBOURNE FLORIDA AND ABOUT 15 MILES... 20 KM...SOUTH OF CAPE
CANAVERAL FLORIDA.
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND FAY IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR OR OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DATA
INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MOSTLY OVER WATER WELL TO THE EAST OF
THE CENTER. SOME GRADUAL RESTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE FAY MOVES BACK INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA ON THURSDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...WITH MAXIMUM TOTAL
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
STORM TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF FAY.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA.
REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...28.2 N...80.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART/FRANKLIN
000
WTNT41 KNHC 200855
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2008
TROPICAL STORM FAY HAS TURNED SLOWLY NORTHWARD AFTER FINALLY
REACHING THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE CENTER REMAINS JUST INLAND ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF
MELBOURNE FLORIDA AND MAY NOT EMERGE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN UNTIL
THIS AFTERNOON WHEN FAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE CAPE
CANAVERAL AREA. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING A
TIGHTER TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN A SHARPER WESTWARD JOG
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AFTER 36 HOURS AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO BY 72 HOURS. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS ARE EXCEPTIONS TO
THIS SCENARIO AND KEEP FAY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS GEORGIA AND
ALABAMA...BUT EVEN THOSE MODELS ARE NO LONGER TAKING FAY EAST OF
80W LONGITUDE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE
SOUTH...OR LEFT...OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS SIMILAR TO
BUT SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE POSSIBILITY OF FAY REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IS BECOMING
SMALLER NOW THAT FAY IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST AND IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE THAN 30 NM OFFSHORE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. EVEN IF FAY DOES MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST TRACK...NOAA BUOY DATA INDICATES THAT SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE DECREASED BY AS MUCH AS 3 CELSIUS...WHICH IS
CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS
INCORPORATING. THE GFDL AND HWRF ARE ALSO NO LONGER FORECASTING FAY
TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH. FAY HAS MAINTAINED GOOD CONVECTIVE
BANDING FEATURES AND IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW...SO SOME MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS STILL POSSIBLE. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
THE SHIPS MODEL. HOWEVER...IF FAY REMAINS FARTHER WEST AND CLOSER
TO LAND...THEN THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST WILL LIKELY BE TOO
HIGH THROUGH 36 HOURS. IF FAY MOVES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK AND
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... THEN INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE TOO LOW
AFTER 72 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/0900Z 28.2N 80.6W 45 KT...JUST INLAND
12HR VT 20/1800Z 28.8N 80.6W 50 KT
24HR VT 21/0600Z 29.3N 80.9W 60 KT
36HR VT 21/1800Z 29.6N 81.5W 50 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 22/0600Z 30.0N 82.5W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 23/0600Z 30.4N 84.1W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 24/0600Z 30.7N 86.0W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 25/0600Z 31.0N 88.0W 25 KT...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
WTNT31 KNHC 200855
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2008
...FAY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL
FLORIDA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED NORTHWARD...
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET FLORIDA
NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH
FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF ALTAMAHA
SOUND TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.6 WEST OR VERY NEAR
MELBOURNE FLORIDA AND ABOUT 15 MILES... 20 KM...SOUTH OF CAPE
CANAVERAL FLORIDA.
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND FAY IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR OR OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DATA
INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MOSTLY OVER WATER WELL TO THE EAST OF
THE CENTER. SOME GRADUAL RESTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE FAY MOVES BACK INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA ON THURSDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...WITH MAXIMUM TOTAL
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
STORM TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF FAY.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA.
REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...28.2 N...80.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART/FRANKLIN
000
WTNT41 KNHC 200855
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2008
TROPICAL STORM FAY HAS TURNED SLOWLY NORTHWARD AFTER FINALLY
REACHING THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE CENTER REMAINS JUST INLAND ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF
MELBOURNE FLORIDA AND MAY NOT EMERGE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN UNTIL
THIS AFTERNOON WHEN FAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE CAPE
CANAVERAL AREA. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING A
TIGHTER TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN A SHARPER WESTWARD JOG
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AFTER 36 HOURS AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO BY 72 HOURS. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS ARE EXCEPTIONS TO
THIS SCENARIO AND KEEP FAY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS GEORGIA AND
ALABAMA...BUT EVEN THOSE MODELS ARE NO LONGER TAKING FAY EAST OF
80W LONGITUDE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE
SOUTH...OR LEFT...OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS SIMILAR TO
BUT SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
THE POSSIBILITY OF FAY REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IS BECOMING
SMALLER NOW THAT FAY IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST AND IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE THAN 30 NM OFFSHORE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. EVEN IF FAY DOES MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST TRACK...NOAA BUOY DATA INDICATES THAT SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES HAVE DECREASED BY AS MUCH AS 3 CELSIUS...WHICH IS
CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS
INCORPORATING. THE GFDL AND HWRF ARE ALSO NO LONGER FORECASTING FAY
TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH. FAY HAS MAINTAINED GOOD CONVECTIVE
BANDING FEATURES AND IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW...SO SOME MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS STILL POSSIBLE. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
THE SHIPS MODEL. HOWEVER...IF FAY REMAINS FARTHER WEST AND CLOSER
TO LAND...THEN THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST WILL LIKELY BE TOO
HIGH THROUGH 36 HOURS. IF FAY MOVES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK AND
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... THEN INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE TOO LOW
AFTER 72 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/0900Z 28.2N 80.6W 45 KT...JUST INLAND
12HR VT 20/1800Z 28.8N 80.6W 50 KT
24HR VT 21/0600Z 29.3N 80.9W 60 KT
36HR VT 21/1800Z 29.6N 81.5W 50 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 22/0600Z 30.0N 82.5W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 23/0600Z 30.4N 84.1W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 24/0600Z 30.7N 86.0W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 25/0600Z 31.0N 88.0W 25 KT...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139083
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: T S Fay Advisories
WTNT31 KNHC 201142
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
800 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2008
...CENTER OF FAY NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF JUPITER
INLET FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH
FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF ALTAMAHA
SOUND TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.6 WEST OR VERY NEAR CAPE
CANAVERAL FLORIDA.
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND FAY IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR OR OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45
MPH...70 KM/HR..WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING MOSTLY
OVER WATER WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME GRADUAL
RESTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE FAY
MOVES BACK INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA ON THURSDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AB AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...WITH MAXIMUM TOTAL
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
STORM TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF FAY.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA.
REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...28.5 N...80.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
800 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2008
...CENTER OF FAY NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF JUPITER
INLET FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH
FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF ALTAMAHA
SOUND TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.6 WEST OR VERY NEAR CAPE
CANAVERAL FLORIDA.
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND FAY IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR OR OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA COAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45
MPH...70 KM/HR..WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING MOSTLY
OVER WATER WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME GRADUAL
RESTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE FAY
MOVES BACK INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA ON THURSDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AB AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...WITH MAXIMUM TOTAL
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
STORM TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF FAY.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA.
REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...28.5 N...80.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139083
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: T S Fay Advisories
WTNT31 KNHC 201742
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
200 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008
...FAY STALLS NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL...DUMPING TORRENTIAL RAINS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FORT PIERCE
NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF ALTAMAHA
SOUND TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.6 WEST ABOUT 15
MILES...20 KM...NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.
FAY HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. FAY IS
EXPECTED TO RESUME A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION LATER TODAY WITH A TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING MOSTLY OVER WATER WELL TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
30 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN FLORIDA. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. AN UNOFFICIAL REPORT OF
NEAR 22 INCHES OF RAIN WAS MEASURED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF
MELBOURNE FLORIDA.
STORM TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF FAY.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA.
REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...28.6 N...80.6 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
200 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008
...FAY STALLS NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL...DUMPING TORRENTIAL RAINS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FORT PIERCE
NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF ALTAMAHA
SOUND TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.6 WEST ABOUT 15
MILES...20 KM...NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.
FAY HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. FAY IS
EXPECTED TO RESUME A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION LATER TODAY WITH A TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING MOSTLY OVER WATER WELL TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
30 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN FLORIDA. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. AN UNOFFICIAL REPORT OF
NEAR 22 INCHES OF RAIN WAS MEASURED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF
MELBOURNE FLORIDA.
STORM TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF FAY.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA.
REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...28.6 N...80.6 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 37108
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: T S Fay Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008
...WET FAY SOAKING PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...MORE RAIN TO
COME...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FORT PIERCE
NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF ALTAMAHA
SOUND TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...-THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST ABOUT 30
MILES...45 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
WEST-NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY. ON THIS TRACK...FAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE
VERY SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA ON THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE FAY
MOVES OVER LAND.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
30 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN FLORIDA. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
STORM TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF FAY.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...28.8 N...80.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
2100 UTC WED AUG 20 2008
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FORT PIERCE
NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF ALTAMAHA
SOUND TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 80.5W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 90SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 80.5W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 80.6W
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 29.2N 80.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 0SW 20NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 29.5N 81.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 20SW 20NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 29.8N 83.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 30.2N 84.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 31.3N 86.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 32.5N 88.4W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 33.5N 89.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.8N 80.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008
FAY HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED STRUCTURE ON SATELLITE AND RADAR
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS RAINBANDS
SPIRALING AROUND THE CENTER BUT THE CYCLONE LACKS AN INNER CORE.
SURFACE AND RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS AT 45 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE VERY FAVORABLE
FOR STRENGTHENING...THE INTERACTION WITH LAND SHOULD ONLY ALLOW SOME
SLIGHT STRENGTHENING...IF AT ALL.
FAY HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS BUT IT BEGAN TO
DRIFT NORTHWARD IN THE PAST HOUR OR SO. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
DEVELOPING NORTH OF FAY IS ALREADY BLOCKING ITS NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION AND FAY SHOULD SOON BEGIN TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST AND THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ISSUE
REGARDING THE SLOW MOTION IS THAT FAY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DUMP
TORRENTIAL RAINS ALONG ITS PATH...AND WILL PROBABLY BE REMEMBERED
AS A VERY WET STORM. THE TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST
KEEPING FAY OVER LAND IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
AND TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK GUIDANCE. ONLY THE ECMWF MODEL BRINGS
FAY OVER THE WATERS OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/2100Z 28.8N 80.5W 45 KT
12HR VT 21/0600Z 29.2N 80.9W 50 KT
24HR VT 21/1800Z 29.5N 81.8W 45 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 22/0600Z 29.8N 83.0W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 22/1800Z 30.2N 84.0W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 23/1800Z 31.3N 86.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 24/1800Z 32.5N 88.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 25/1800Z 33.5N 89.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008
...WET FAY SOAKING PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...MORE RAIN TO
COME...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FORT PIERCE
NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF ALTAMAHA
SOUND TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...-THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST ABOUT 30
MILES...45 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
WEST-NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY. ON THIS TRACK...FAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE
VERY SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA ON THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE FAY
MOVES OVER LAND.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
30 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN FLORIDA. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
STORM TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF FAY.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...28.8 N...80.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
2100 UTC WED AUG 20 2008
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FORT PIERCE
NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF ALTAMAHA
SOUND TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 80.5W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 90SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 80.5W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 80.6W
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 29.2N 80.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 0SW 20NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 29.5N 81.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 20SW 20NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 29.8N 83.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 30.2N 84.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 31.3N 86.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 32.5N 88.4W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 33.5N 89.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.8N 80.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008
FAY HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED STRUCTURE ON SATELLITE AND RADAR
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS RAINBANDS
SPIRALING AROUND THE CENTER BUT THE CYCLONE LACKS AN INNER CORE.
SURFACE AND RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS AT 45 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE VERY FAVORABLE
FOR STRENGTHENING...THE INTERACTION WITH LAND SHOULD ONLY ALLOW SOME
SLIGHT STRENGTHENING...IF AT ALL.
FAY HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS BUT IT BEGAN TO
DRIFT NORTHWARD IN THE PAST HOUR OR SO. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
DEVELOPING NORTH OF FAY IS ALREADY BLOCKING ITS NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION AND FAY SHOULD SOON BEGIN TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST AND THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ISSUE
REGARDING THE SLOW MOTION IS THAT FAY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DUMP
TORRENTIAL RAINS ALONG ITS PATH...AND WILL PROBABLY BE REMEMBERED
AS A VERY WET STORM. THE TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST
KEEPING FAY OVER LAND IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
AND TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK GUIDANCE. ONLY THE ECMWF MODEL BRINGS
FAY OVER THE WATERS OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/2100Z 28.8N 80.5W 45 KT
12HR VT 21/0600Z 29.2N 80.9W 50 KT
24HR VT 21/1800Z 29.5N 81.8W 45 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 22/0600Z 29.8N 83.0W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 22/1800Z 30.2N 84.0W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 23/1800Z 31.3N 86.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 24/1800Z 32.5N 88.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 25/1800Z 33.5N 89.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139083
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: T S Fay Advisories
WTNT31 KNHC 202359
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
800 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008
...FAY BACK OVER WATER AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FORT PIERCE FLORIDA
NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF ALTAMAHA
SOUND TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR LATITUDE
29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.3 WEST ABOUT 45 MILES...75 KM...
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.
FAY HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT A
SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TONIGHT...
WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY. ON THIS
TRACK...FAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND FROM NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE RADARS INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WHILE THE
CENTER OF FAY REMAINS OVER WATER TONIGHT...BUT WEAKENING IS
FORECAST AFTER FAY MOVES BACK OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
30 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN FLORIDA. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
STORM TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF FAY.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...29.0 N...80.3 W.
MOVEMENT...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB/BROWN
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
800 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008
...FAY BACK OVER WATER AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FORT PIERCE FLORIDA
NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF ALTAMAHA
SOUND TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR LATITUDE
29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.3 WEST ABOUT 45 MILES...75 KM...
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.
FAY HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT A
SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TONIGHT...
WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY. ON THIS
TRACK...FAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND FROM NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE RADARS INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WHILE THE
CENTER OF FAY REMAINS OVER WATER TONIGHT...BUT WEAKENING IS
FORECAST AFTER FAY MOVES BACK OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
30 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN FLORIDA. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
STORM TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF FAY.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...29.0 N...80.3 W.
MOVEMENT...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB/BROWN
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139083
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: T S Fay Advisories
WTNT21 KNHC 210243
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
0300 UTC THU AUG 21 2008
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF
ALTAMAHA SOUND TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM FORT
PIERCE FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER AT THE BORDER
BETWEEN GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 80.5W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......130NE 100SE 40SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 80.5W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 80.5W
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 29.2N 81.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 0SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 29.4N 82.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...130NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 29.7N 83.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 30.1N 84.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 31.0N 87.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 32.0N 89.0W...REMNANT LOW INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 32.5N 90.0W...REMNANT LOW INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.9N 80.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
0300 UTC THU AUG 21 2008
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF
ALTAMAHA SOUND TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM FORT
PIERCE FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER AT THE BORDER
BETWEEN GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 80.5W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......130NE 100SE 40SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 80.5W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 80.5W
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 29.2N 81.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 0SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 29.4N 82.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...130NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 29.7N 83.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 30.1N 84.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 31.0N 87.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 32.0N 89.0W...REMNANT LOW INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 32.5N 90.0W...REMNANT LOW INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.9N 80.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139083
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: T S Fay Advisories=11 PM EDT,50 kts
751
WTNT31 KNHC 210244
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008
...VERY HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA
AS FAY SITS JUST OFFSHORE...
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF
ALTAMAHA SOUND TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM FORT
PIERCE FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER AT THE BORDER
BETWEEN GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST OR ABOUT 35
MILES...60 KM...SOUTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.
FAY HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT A
SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TONIGHT
OR EARLY TOMORROW AND CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON
THIS TRACK...FAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ON THURSDAY...AND NEAR OR ALONG THE GULF
COAST IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA ON FRIDAY.
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND FROM NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE RADARS INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WHILE THE CENTER OF FAY REMAINS OVER
WATER TONIGHT AND VERY EARLY TOMORROW...BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST ON THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY AFTER FAY MOVES BACK OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
30 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN FLORIDA. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
STORM TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF FAY.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...28.9 N...80.5 W. MOVEMENT...
STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...994 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB/BROWN
WTNT31 KNHC 210244
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008
...VERY HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA
AS FAY SITS JUST OFFSHORE...
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF
ALTAMAHA SOUND TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM FORT
PIERCE FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER AT THE BORDER
BETWEEN GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST OR ABOUT 35
MILES...60 KM...SOUTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.
FAY HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT A
SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TONIGHT
OR EARLY TOMORROW AND CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON
THIS TRACK...FAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ON THURSDAY...AND NEAR OR ALONG THE GULF
COAST IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA ON FRIDAY.
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND FROM NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE RADARS INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WHILE THE CENTER OF FAY REMAINS OVER
WATER TONIGHT AND VERY EARLY TOMORROW...BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST ON THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY AFTER FAY MOVES BACK OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
30 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN FLORIDA. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
STORM TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF FAY.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...28.9 N...80.5 W. MOVEMENT...
STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...994 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB/BROWN
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139083
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: T S Fay Advisories=11 PM EDT,60 mph
Discussion came late:
WTNT41 KNHC 210300
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008
FAY HAS PULLED UP STATIONARY WHILE CENTERED ONLY ABOUT 20 N MI OFF
THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA...AS SHOWN BY NWS WSR-88D
RADAR DATA AND CONFIRMED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT.
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF THE STORM
HAS OCCASIONALLY LOOKED FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE...WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPING AROUND WHAT ESSENTIALLY QUALIFIES AS AN EYE. WSR-88D
VELOCITIES ALONG WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR DATA FROM THE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 50 KT. THE MOST
RECENT COUPLE OF AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
HAS SETTLED FOR NOW AT 994 MB. ANOTHER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE
FAY IN A FEW HOURS.
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH OF FAY OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD GET FAY MOVING GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...ALTHOUGH SLOWLY...WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. BETWEEN NOW AND LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA...SINCE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING...THERE IS A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION. ONCE FAY MOVES BACK OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA TOMORROW...GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE. A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST BY NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SAGGED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH...AND
SO HAS THE OFFICIAL TRACK. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST POINTS LISTED
BELOW DO NOT EXPLICITLY INDICATE IT...THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK HUGS
THE GULF COAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA AT 36 TO 48 HOURS. IF
FAY ENDS UP MOVING FARTHER SOUTH THAN FORECAST...AND SPENDS MORE
TIME THAN FORECAST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF...IT COULD BE AT
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH A COUPLE OF DAYS FROM NOW.
IF...HOWEVER...IT MOVES NORTH OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK...IT COULD
WEAKEN FASTER THAN INDICATED BELOW.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOODING HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/0300Z 28.9N 80.5W 50 KT
12HR VT 21/1200Z 29.2N 81.2W 50 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 22/0000Z 29.4N 82.2W 40 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 22/1200Z 29.7N 83.3W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 23/0000Z 30.1N 84.6W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 24/0000Z 31.0N 87.0W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 25/0000Z 32.0N 89.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 26/0000Z 32.5N 90.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
WTNT41 KNHC 210300
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008
FAY HAS PULLED UP STATIONARY WHILE CENTERED ONLY ABOUT 20 N MI OFF
THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA...AS SHOWN BY NWS WSR-88D
RADAR DATA AND CONFIRMED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT.
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF THE STORM
HAS OCCASIONALLY LOOKED FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE...WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPING AROUND WHAT ESSENTIALLY QUALIFIES AS AN EYE. WSR-88D
VELOCITIES ALONG WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR DATA FROM THE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 50 KT. THE MOST
RECENT COUPLE OF AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
HAS SETTLED FOR NOW AT 994 MB. ANOTHER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE
FAY IN A FEW HOURS.
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH OF FAY OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD GET FAY MOVING GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...ALTHOUGH SLOWLY...WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. BETWEEN NOW AND LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA...SINCE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING...THERE IS A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION. ONCE FAY MOVES BACK OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA TOMORROW...GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE. A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST BY NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SAGGED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH...AND
SO HAS THE OFFICIAL TRACK. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST POINTS LISTED
BELOW DO NOT EXPLICITLY INDICATE IT...THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK HUGS
THE GULF COAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA AT 36 TO 48 HOURS. IF
FAY ENDS UP MOVING FARTHER SOUTH THAN FORECAST...AND SPENDS MORE
TIME THAN FORECAST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF...IT COULD BE AT
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH A COUPLE OF DAYS FROM NOW.
IF...HOWEVER...IT MOVES NORTH OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK...IT COULD
WEAKEN FASTER THAN INDICATED BELOW.
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOODING HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/0300Z 28.9N 80.5W 50 KT
12HR VT 21/1200Z 29.2N 81.2W 50 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 22/0000Z 29.4N 82.2W 40 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 22/1200Z 29.7N 83.3W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 23/0000Z 30.1N 84.6W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 24/0000Z 31.0N 87.0W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 25/0000Z 32.0N 89.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 26/0000Z 32.5N 90.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
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Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 37108
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: T S Fay Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
200 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2008
...FAY EDGING TOWARD THE FLORIDA COAST...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FORT PIERCE FLORIDA
NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER AT THE BORDER BETWEEN GEORGIA AND
SOUTH CAROLINA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST OR ABOUT 20
MILES...35 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.
FAY HAS BEEN DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 2 MPH...3 KM/HR...
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO BEGIN THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...FAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE
VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY...AND NEAR
THE GULF COAST IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA ON FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WHILE THE CENTER OF
FAY REMAINS OVER WATER THIS MORNING...BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST LATER TODAY AND FRIDAY AFTER FAY MOVES BACK OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
30 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN FLORIDA. THE MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE REPORTS RAINFALL TOTALS OF NEARLY 25 INCHES
IN PARTS OF NORTH MELBOURNE. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
STORM TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF FAY.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.
REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...29.1 N...80.7 W. MOVEMENT...
NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
200 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2008
...FAY EDGING TOWARD THE FLORIDA COAST...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FORT PIERCE FLORIDA
NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER AT THE BORDER BETWEEN GEORGIA AND
SOUTH CAROLINA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST OR ABOUT 20
MILES...35 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.
FAY HAS BEEN DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 2 MPH...3 KM/HR...
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO BEGIN THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...FAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE
VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY...AND NEAR
THE GULF COAST IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA ON FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WHILE THE CENTER OF
FAY REMAINS OVER WATER THIS MORNING...BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST LATER TODAY AND FRIDAY AFTER FAY MOVES BACK OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO
10 INCHES OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...WITH 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
30 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN FLORIDA. THE MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE REPORTS RAINFALL TOTALS OF NEARLY 25 INCHES
IN PARTS OF NORTH MELBOURNE. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
STORM TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF FAY.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.
REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...29.1 N...80.7 W. MOVEMENT...
NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2008
AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA SHOW THAT FAY IS NOT STRENGTHENING.
THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND AT 850 MB FROM THE AIRCRAFT WAS 62
KT...CORRESPONDING TO SURFACE WINDS OF 50 KT...WITH PEAK ACTUAL
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OF 50 KT FROM A DROPSONDE AND 51 KT FROM THE
SFMR. THE PRESSURE HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY AROUND 993-994 MB.
BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS 50 KT.
AFTER DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD EARLIER TONIGHT...FAY IS NEARLY
STATIONARY AGAIN JUST A FEW MILES OFFSHORE. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF FAY...WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CYCLONE'S CURRENT
STALL...IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD
WESTWARD AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LIFTS OUT OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. THIS PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO TURN FAY SLOWLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING RIDGE. THERE HAS NOT BEEN A
GREAT DEAL OF CHANGE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE DURING THIS FORECAST
CYCLE...ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AND NOW SHOWS A
TRACK VERY CLOSE TO THE GULF COAST OF NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND UKMET
GUIDANCE AND IS JUST A LITTLE BIT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
TRACK.
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE NET CHANGE IN THE RADAR PRESENTATION OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS ACTUALLY
DEGRADED SLIGHTLY WITH SOME EROSION NOTED IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT. WHILE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS STILL SUPPPORT SOME
INTENSIFICATION...THE BROAD STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE'S CORE WOULD
ARGUE AGAINST MUCH CHANGE IN STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ASSUMING
THAT THE TRACK FORECAST IS CORRECT IN KEEPING FAY INLAND AFTER
THAT...A GRADUAL WEAKENING WOULD BE EXPECTED. THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT...
HOWEVER...SHOULD FAY GO SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO.
REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/0900Z 29.1N 80.7W 50 KT
12HR VT 21/1800Z 29.4N 81.6W 50 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 22/0600Z 29.6N 82.5W 40 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 22/1800Z 30.0N 83.9W 30 KT...ALONG FL GULF COAST
48HR VT 23/0600Z 30.3N 85.1W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 24/0600Z 30.7N 87.5W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 25/0600Z 31.0N 89.0W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 26/0600Z 31.0N 89.0W 25 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2008
...FAY REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE AS HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FORT PIERCE FLORIDA
NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER AT THE BORDER BETWEEN GEORGIA AND
SOUTH CAROLINA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES...
30 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.
FAY HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...A SLOW
MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LATER TODAY
AND CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...FAY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
TODAY...AND BE VERY NEAR THE GULF COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY
EARLY SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE WHILE THE CENTER
OF FAY REMAINS OVER WATER THIS MORNING...BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST AFTER FAY MOVES BACK OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE ALSO LIKELY OVER SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA DURING THE SAME PERIOD. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS
OF NEAR 30 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN FLORIDA.
STORM TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF FAY.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.
REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...29.1 N...80.7 W. MOVEMENT...
STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...994 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2008
AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA SHOW THAT FAY IS NOT STRENGTHENING.
THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND AT 850 MB FROM THE AIRCRAFT WAS 62
KT...CORRESPONDING TO SURFACE WINDS OF 50 KT...WITH PEAK ACTUAL
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OF 50 KT FROM A DROPSONDE AND 51 KT FROM THE
SFMR. THE PRESSURE HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY AROUND 993-994 MB.
BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS 50 KT.
AFTER DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD EARLIER TONIGHT...FAY IS NEARLY
STATIONARY AGAIN JUST A FEW MILES OFFSHORE. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF FAY...WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CYCLONE'S CURRENT
STALL...IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD
WESTWARD AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LIFTS OUT OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. THIS PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO TURN FAY SLOWLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING RIDGE. THERE HAS NOT BEEN A
GREAT DEAL OF CHANGE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE DURING THIS FORECAST
CYCLE...ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AND NOW SHOWS A
TRACK VERY CLOSE TO THE GULF COAST OF NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND UKMET
GUIDANCE AND IS JUST A LITTLE BIT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
TRACK.
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE NET CHANGE IN THE RADAR PRESENTATION OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS ACTUALLY
DEGRADED SLIGHTLY WITH SOME EROSION NOTED IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT. WHILE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS STILL SUPPPORT SOME
INTENSIFICATION...THE BROAD STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE'S CORE WOULD
ARGUE AGAINST MUCH CHANGE IN STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ASSUMING
THAT THE TRACK FORECAST IS CORRECT IN KEEPING FAY INLAND AFTER
THAT...A GRADUAL WEAKENING WOULD BE EXPECTED. THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT...
HOWEVER...SHOULD FAY GO SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO.
REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/0900Z 29.1N 80.7W 50 KT
12HR VT 21/1800Z 29.4N 81.6W 50 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 22/0600Z 29.6N 82.5W 40 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 22/1800Z 30.0N 83.9W 30 KT...ALONG FL GULF COAST
48HR VT 23/0600Z 30.3N 85.1W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 24/0600Z 30.7N 87.5W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 25/0600Z 31.0N 89.0W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 26/0600Z 31.0N 89.0W 25 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2008
...FAY REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE AS HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FORT PIERCE FLORIDA
NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER AT THE BORDER BETWEEN GEORGIA AND
SOUTH CAROLINA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES...
30 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.
FAY HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...A SLOW
MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LATER TODAY
AND CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...FAY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
TODAY...AND BE VERY NEAR THE GULF COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY
EARLY SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE WHILE THE CENTER
OF FAY REMAINS OVER WATER THIS MORNING...BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST AFTER FAY MOVES BACK OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE ALSO LIKELY OVER SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA DURING THE SAME PERIOD. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS
OF NEAR 30 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN FLORIDA.
STORM TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF FAY.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.
REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...29.1 N...80.7 W. MOVEMENT...
STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...994 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139083
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: T S Fay Advisories
WTNT31 KNHC 211141
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
800 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2008
...FAY BARELY MOVING...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FORT PIERCE FLORIDA
NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER AT THE BORDER BETWEEN GEORGIA AND
SOUTH CAROLINA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES...
30 KM...EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.
FAY HAS BARELY MOVED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...A SLOW
MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LATER TODAY
AND CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...FAY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
TODAY...AND BE VERY NEAR THE GULF COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY
EARLY SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE WHILE THE CENTER
OF FAY REMAINS OVER WATER THIS MORNING...BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST AFTER FAY MOVES BACK OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE ALSO LIKELY OVER SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA DURING THE SAME PERIOD. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS
OF NEAR 30 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN FLORIDA.
STORM TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF FAY.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.
REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...29.2 N...80.7 W. MOVEMENT...
STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...994 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
800 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2008
...FAY BARELY MOVING...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FORT PIERCE FLORIDA
NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER AT THE BORDER BETWEEN GEORGIA AND
SOUTH CAROLINA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.7 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES...
30 KM...EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.
FAY HAS BARELY MOVED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...A SLOW
MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LATER TODAY
AND CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...FAY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
TODAY...AND BE VERY NEAR THE GULF COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY
EARLY SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE WHILE THE CENTER
OF FAY REMAINS OVER WATER THIS MORNING...BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST AFTER FAY MOVES BACK OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE ALSO LIKELY OVER SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA DURING THE SAME PERIOD. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS
OF NEAR 30 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN FLORIDA.
STORM TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF FAY.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.
REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...29.2 N...80.7 W. MOVEMENT...
STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...994 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
619
WTNT41 KNHC 211441
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2008
THERE IS BASICALLY NOTHING NEW TO REPORT. FAY HAS BEEN MEANDERING
FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY. LATEST
MINIMUM PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 994 MB AND
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW NUMEROUS RAINBANDS AND DEEP CONVECTION
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER WITH A WELL-DEFINED
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. NWS DOPPLER RADAR CLEARLY SHOWS A SPINNING
RING OF CONVECTION WITH DOPPLER VELOCITIES OF UP TO 67 KNOTS AT
APPROXIMATELY 5000 FEET. HOWEVER...FAY DOES NOT HAVE AN INNER
CORE. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING...THE INTERACTION WITH LAND SHOULD IMPEDE IT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES
INLAND WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THEREAFTER...FAY SHOULD
BEGIN TO WEAKEN BUT A TRACK FATHER SOUTH THAN INDICATED COULD BRING
THE CENTER OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. IN THIS CASE...FAY
SHOULD NOT WEAKEN AS MUCH AS FORECAST...AND DO NOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IF THE CENTER OF FAY REMAINS
OVER WATER LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED.
STEERING CURRENTS HAVE REMAINED VERY LIGHT...CONSEQUENTLY FAY HAS
BARELY MOVED SINCE YESTERDAY. GLOBAL MODELS INSIST ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF FAY. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
OR WEST...A MOTION WE HAVE BEEN FORECASTING BUT HAS NOT MATERIALIZED
YET. NEVERTHELESS...THE DEVELOPING STEERING PATTERN GIVES ME NO
OPTION BUT TO FORECAST A TURN TO THE LEFT WHICH SHOULD BEGIN SOON.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH ALL GLOBAL MODELS AND TRACK GUIDANCE.
REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/1500Z 29.3N 80.8W 50 KT
12HR VT 22/0000Z 29.5N 81.6W 50 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 22/1200Z 29.6N 82.7W 40 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 23/0000Z 29.8N 84.0W 30 KT...OVER WATER
48HR VT 23/1200Z 30.0N 85.5W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 24/1200Z 31.0N 88.0W 25 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 25/1200Z 31.5N 89.5W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 26/1200Z 32.0N 90.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
256
WTNT31 KNHC 211440
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2008
...FAY EXPECTED TO MOVE MOVE BACK OVER FLORIDA...BUT TAKING ITS
TIME...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FORT PIERCE FLORIDA
NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER AT THE BORDER BETWEEN GEORGIA AND
SOUTH CAROLINA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.8 WEST OR ABOUT 15
MILES... 20 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.
FAY HAS BEEN STATIONARY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...A
SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SOON AND
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...FAY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
TODAY...AND BE VERY NEAR THE GULF COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY
LAT FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE
CENTER MOVES INLAND LATER TODAY. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST
AFTER FAY MOVES BACK OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM
FROM THE CENTER. THERE WAS A RECENT UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATION FROM THE
AREA JUST NORTH OF ORMOND BEACH OF A GUST OF 65 MPH...105 KM/HR.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN
GEORGIA...AND SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 20 TO 30 INCHES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE EAST
CENTRAL COASTAL AREAS OF FLORIDA.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTER OF FAY.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...29.3 N...80.8 W. MOVEMENT...
STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...994 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
WTNT41 KNHC 211441
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2008
THERE IS BASICALLY NOTHING NEW TO REPORT. FAY HAS BEEN MEANDERING
FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY. LATEST
MINIMUM PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 994 MB AND
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW NUMEROUS RAINBANDS AND DEEP CONVECTION
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER WITH A WELL-DEFINED
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. NWS DOPPLER RADAR CLEARLY SHOWS A SPINNING
RING OF CONVECTION WITH DOPPLER VELOCITIES OF UP TO 67 KNOTS AT
APPROXIMATELY 5000 FEET. HOWEVER...FAY DOES NOT HAVE AN INNER
CORE. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING...THE INTERACTION WITH LAND SHOULD IMPEDE IT. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES
INLAND WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THEREAFTER...FAY SHOULD
BEGIN TO WEAKEN BUT A TRACK FATHER SOUTH THAN INDICATED COULD BRING
THE CENTER OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. IN THIS CASE...FAY
SHOULD NOT WEAKEN AS MUCH AS FORECAST...AND DO NOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IF THE CENTER OF FAY REMAINS
OVER WATER LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED.
STEERING CURRENTS HAVE REMAINED VERY LIGHT...CONSEQUENTLY FAY HAS
BARELY MOVED SINCE YESTERDAY. GLOBAL MODELS INSIST ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF FAY. THIS PATTERN
SHOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
OR WEST...A MOTION WE HAVE BEEN FORECASTING BUT HAS NOT MATERIALIZED
YET. NEVERTHELESS...THE DEVELOPING STEERING PATTERN GIVES ME NO
OPTION BUT TO FORECAST A TURN TO THE LEFT WHICH SHOULD BEGIN SOON.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH ALL GLOBAL MODELS AND TRACK GUIDANCE.
REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/1500Z 29.3N 80.8W 50 KT
12HR VT 22/0000Z 29.5N 81.6W 50 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 22/1200Z 29.6N 82.7W 40 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 23/0000Z 29.8N 84.0W 30 KT...OVER WATER
48HR VT 23/1200Z 30.0N 85.5W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 24/1200Z 31.0N 88.0W 25 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 25/1200Z 31.5N 89.5W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 26/1200Z 32.0N 90.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
256
WTNT31 KNHC 211440
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2008
...FAY EXPECTED TO MOVE MOVE BACK OVER FLORIDA...BUT TAKING ITS
TIME...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FORT PIERCE FLORIDA
NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER AT THE BORDER BETWEEN GEORGIA AND
SOUTH CAROLINA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.8 WEST OR ABOUT 15
MILES... 20 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.
FAY HAS BEEN STATIONARY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...A
SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SOON AND
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...FAY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
TODAY...AND BE VERY NEAR THE GULF COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY
LAT FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE
CENTER MOVES INLAND LATER TODAY. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST
AFTER FAY MOVES BACK OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM
FROM THE CENTER. THERE WAS A RECENT UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATION FROM THE
AREA JUST NORTH OF ORMOND BEACH OF A GUST OF 65 MPH...105 KM/HR.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN
GEORGIA...AND SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 20 TO 30 INCHES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE EAST
CENTRAL COASTAL AREAS OF FLORIDA.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTER OF FAY.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...29.3 N...80.8 W. MOVEMENT...
STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...994 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
0 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139083
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: T S Fay Advisories
WTNT31 KNHC 211750
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
200 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2008
...CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY BEGINNING TO CROSS THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST NEAR FLAGLER BEACH...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FORT PIERCE FLORIDA
NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER AT THE BORDER BETWEEN GEORGIA AND
SOUTH CAROLINA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.0 WEST...OR VERY
NEAR FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA.
FAY HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 2 MPH...3 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL SLOW MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...FAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY...AND BE VERY NEAR THE GULF COAST
OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH AS THE CENTER MOVES INLAND
LATER TODAY. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AFTER FAY MOVES
INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA JUST
REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 56 MPH...91 KM/HR.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN
GEORGIA...AND SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 20 TO 30 INCHES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE EAST
CENTRAL COASTAL AREAS OF FLORIDA.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTER OF FAY.
REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...29.4 N...81.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
200 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2008
...CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY BEGINNING TO CROSS THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST NEAR FLAGLER BEACH...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FORT PIERCE FLORIDA
NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER AT THE BORDER BETWEEN GEORGIA AND
SOUTH CAROLINA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.0 WEST...OR VERY
NEAR FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA.
FAY HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 2 MPH...3 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL SLOW MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...FAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY...AND BE VERY NEAR THE GULF COAST
OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH AS THE CENTER MOVES INLAND
LATER TODAY. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AFTER FAY MOVES
INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA JUST
REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 56 MPH...91 KM/HR.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN
GEORGIA...AND SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 20 TO 30 INCHES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE EAST
CENTRAL COASTAL AREAS OF FLORIDA.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTER OF FAY.
REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...29.4 N...81.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
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- Contact:
767
WTNT41 KNHC 212032
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2008
NWS DOPPLER RADAR...AIRCRAFT DATA...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF FAY'S LARGE CIRCULATION
HAS BEEN SLOWLY CROSSING THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WITH THE MINIMUM
PRESSURE NEAR FLAGLER BEACH. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES
REMARKABLY WELL-DEFINED WITH NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE BANDS AND
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. DOPPLER WINDS AND
RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
50 KNOTS. SOME HIGHER WINDS COULD HAVE OCCURRED OVER WATER IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT A FEW HOURS AGO BEFORE THE CENTER CROSSED THE
COAST. NOW THAT THE CIRCULATION IS MOVING INLAND...A GRADUAL
WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.
FAY IS ALREADY SOUTH OF A RIDGE AND IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 4 KNOTS.
THIS HIGH SHOULD PROVIDE A SLOW WEST-TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK DURING
THE NEXT 4 DAYS. THEREAFTER...STEERING CURRENTS SHOULD COLLAPSE
AGAIN AND WHATEVER IS LEFT OF FAY SHOULD MOVE VERY LITTLE.
SINCE FAY IS FORECAST TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA GULF
COAST...ANY DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH COULD BRING THE CENTER BACK OVER
THE WATER AND FAY COULD PERHAPS RETAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.
THIS UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS HAS PROMPTED
THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA
GULF COAST.
REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/2100Z 29.4N 81.4W 50 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 29.5N 82.2W 40 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 22/1800Z 29.7N 83.3W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 23/0600Z 29.9N 84.8W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 23/1800Z 30.4N 86.5W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 24/1800Z 31.0N 88.5W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 25/1800Z 31.5N 90.0W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 26/1800Z 32.0N 90.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
451
WTNT31 KNHC 212032
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2008
...FAY EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA...VERY HEAVY
RAINS CONTINUE...
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST OF FLORIDA FROM THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO
INDIAN PASS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FORT PIERCE FLORIDA
NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER AT THE BORDER BETWEEN GEORGIA AND
SOUTH CAROLINA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.4 WEST...JUST WEST OF
FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA. THE CENTER OF FAY CROSSED THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA NEAR FLAGLER BEACH AROUND 230 PM EDT...1830 UTC.
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL
SLOW MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS
TRACK...FAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...AND BE VERY NEAR THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BY LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN
GEORGIA...AND SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 20 TO 30 INCHES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE EAST
CENTRAL COASTAL AREAS OF FLORIDA.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTER OF FAY.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...29.4 N...81.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
WTNT41 KNHC 212032
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2008
NWS DOPPLER RADAR...AIRCRAFT DATA...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF FAY'S LARGE CIRCULATION
HAS BEEN SLOWLY CROSSING THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WITH THE MINIMUM
PRESSURE NEAR FLAGLER BEACH. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES
REMARKABLY WELL-DEFINED WITH NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE BANDS AND
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. DOPPLER WINDS AND
RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
50 KNOTS. SOME HIGHER WINDS COULD HAVE OCCURRED OVER WATER IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT A FEW HOURS AGO BEFORE THE CENTER CROSSED THE
COAST. NOW THAT THE CIRCULATION IS MOVING INLAND...A GRADUAL
WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.
FAY IS ALREADY SOUTH OF A RIDGE AND IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 4 KNOTS.
THIS HIGH SHOULD PROVIDE A SLOW WEST-TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK DURING
THE NEXT 4 DAYS. THEREAFTER...STEERING CURRENTS SHOULD COLLAPSE
AGAIN AND WHATEVER IS LEFT OF FAY SHOULD MOVE VERY LITTLE.
SINCE FAY IS FORECAST TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA GULF
COAST...ANY DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH COULD BRING THE CENTER BACK OVER
THE WATER AND FAY COULD PERHAPS RETAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.
THIS UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS HAS PROMPTED
THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA
GULF COAST.
REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/2100Z 29.4N 81.4W 50 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 29.5N 82.2W 40 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 22/1800Z 29.7N 83.3W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 23/0600Z 29.9N 84.8W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 23/1800Z 30.4N 86.5W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 24/1800Z 31.0N 88.5W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 25/1800Z 31.5N 90.0W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 26/1800Z 32.0N 90.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
451
WTNT31 KNHC 212032
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
500 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2008
...FAY EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA...VERY HEAVY
RAINS CONTINUE...
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST OF FLORIDA FROM THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO
INDIAN PASS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FORT PIERCE FLORIDA
NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER AT THE BORDER BETWEEN GEORGIA AND
SOUTH CAROLINA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.4 WEST...JUST WEST OF
FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA. THE CENTER OF FAY CROSSED THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA NEAR FLAGLER BEACH AROUND 230 PM EDT...1830 UTC.
FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL
SLOW MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS
TRACK...FAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...AND BE VERY NEAR THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BY LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN
GEORGIA...AND SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 20 TO 30 INCHES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE EAST
CENTRAL COASTAL AREAS OF FLORIDA.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTER OF FAY.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...29.4 N...81.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139083
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: T S Fay Advisories
WTNT31 KNHC 212350
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
800 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2008
...FAY DRIFTING WESTWARD NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST...
AT 8 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SEBASTIAN INLET
FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER AT THE BORDER BETWEEN
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF
COAST FROM THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.2 WEST...JUST WEST OF
FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA.
FAY IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/HR. FAY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...AND BE VERY
NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST BY LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN
GEORGIA...AND SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 20 TO 30 INCHES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE EAST
CENTRAL COASTAL AREAS OF FLORIDA.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTER OF FAY.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.
REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...29.3 N...81.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
800 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2008
...FAY DRIFTING WESTWARD NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST...
AT 8 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SEBASTIAN INLET
FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER AT THE BORDER BETWEEN
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF
COAST FROM THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.2 WEST...JUST WEST OF
FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA.
FAY IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/HR. FAY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...AND BE VERY
NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST BY LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN
GEORGIA...AND SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 20 TO 30 INCHES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE EAST
CENTRAL COASTAL AREAS OF FLORIDA.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTER OF FAY.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA.
REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...29.3 N...81.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB
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lonelymike
- S2K Supporter
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139083
- Age: 67
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- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: T S Fay Advisories
WTNT21 KNHC 220244
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
0300 UTC FRI AUG 22 2008
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FOR
THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ARIPEKA NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO
INDIAN PASS...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FROM WEST OF
INDIAN PASS WESTWARD TO DESTIN.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SEBASTIAN INLET
FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER AT THE BORDER BETWEEN
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 81.4W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......150NE 130SE 50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 81.4W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 81.2W
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 29.4N 82.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 29.6N 83.7W...OVER GULF OF MEXICO
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 30.0N 85.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 30.4N 86.7W...NEAR FL PANHANDLE COAST
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 31.0N 88.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 31.2N 89.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 31.5N 89.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.3N 81.4W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
WTNT31 KNHC 220244
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2008
...FAY STILL DRIFTING WESTWARD AND DUMPING HEAVY RAINS OVER
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FOR
THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ARIPEKA NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO
INDIAN PASS...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FROM WEST OF
INDIAN PASS WESTWARD TO DESTIN.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SEBASTIAN INLET
FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER AT THE BORDER BETWEEN
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.4 WEST OR ABOUT 25
MILES...40 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.
FAY IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/HR. FAY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND MOVE NEAR
OR OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT
FAY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM INTO SATURDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280
KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND SOUTHEASTERN
ALABAMA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL
AREAS OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN OUTER RAIN BANDS OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA.
ISOLATED STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 20 TO 30 INCHES HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE EAST CENTRAL COASTAL AREAS OF
FLORIDA.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTER OF FAY.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...AND SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...29.3 N...81.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB/BROWN
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
0300 UTC FRI AUG 22 2008
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FOR
THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ARIPEKA NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO
INDIAN PASS...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FROM WEST OF
INDIAN PASS WESTWARD TO DESTIN.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SEBASTIAN INLET
FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER AT THE BORDER BETWEEN
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 81.4W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......150NE 130SE 50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 81.4W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 81.2W
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 29.4N 82.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 29.6N 83.7W...OVER GULF OF MEXICO
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 30.0N 85.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 30.4N 86.7W...NEAR FL PANHANDLE COAST
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 31.0N 88.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 31.2N 89.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 31.5N 89.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.3N 81.4W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
WTNT31 KNHC 220244
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2008
...FAY STILL DRIFTING WESTWARD AND DUMPING HEAVY RAINS OVER
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FOR
THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ARIPEKA NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO
INDIAN PASS...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FROM WEST OF
INDIAN PASS WESTWARD TO DESTIN.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SEBASTIAN INLET
FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER AT THE BORDER BETWEEN
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.4 WEST OR ABOUT 25
MILES...40 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.
FAY IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/HR. FAY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND MOVE NEAR
OR OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT
FAY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM INTO SATURDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280
KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND SOUTHEASTERN
ALABAMA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL
AREAS OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN OUTER RAIN BANDS OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA.
ISOLATED STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 20 TO 30 INCHES HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE EAST CENTRAL COASTAL AREAS OF
FLORIDA.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTER OF FAY.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...AND SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...29.3 N...81.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB/BROWN
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