ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[bob rulz]

Dude, what is with you people and sanctimony for those poor, poor, people in Haiti? For the love of god, give it a rest! Expresssions of sympathy is great and humane, but we should always remember that these are people with thoughts, lives, and agency of their own. They are poor, and sometimes desperate, but they are not completely helpless--not to survive, and not even to dream of better things. The kind of expressions repeatedly seen here, is so much why the dignity of many poor people is offended at the thought of "charity". So much of "charity" is simply thinly disguised "But for the Grace of God go I, that I am not like you".


If you want to have sympathy, maybe have some for the people in Cuba! They took the worst brunt of the storm. How about the people in the Caymans? Gustov is not going to get retired because of what happened in Haiti. Gustov is going to get retired for Cuba and the US.

Speaking of Cuba...I cannot help but be utterly impressed with the capability of their emergency services. A near category 5 storm smacks heavily populated areas? Not a single soul (maybe a hobo went over the water, but whatever) dies! Myanmar can't claim that. Neither can China or the Phillipines. Mexico certainly has never done better, and they have a pretty decent group themselves. Cuba is apparently the Michael Jordans of this kind of response.

What's with the hostility? We're all aware of the damage caused. I'm not sure exactly what post you're referencing here but whatever you're responding to it seems very heavy-handed.

A life is a life. Quite a few people died in Haiti and I would express sympathy for them whether they were rich, poor, middle-class, alien, or mutant. Doesn't matter.

First and foremost, the #1 cause for retirement of a hurricane name is deaths, followed by damage. Haiti had by far the highest death toll, Cuba and U.S. the most damage. But Hurricane Emily devastated the Yucatan with tons of damage yet because the death toll was very low it was not retired. If it had only hit Cuba with those 0 deaths, there would be no chance of retirement even if it still hit at the same intensity.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The center looks to be right over Shreveport, LA right now. The pressure at their airport is near 994mb.

[GoneBabyGone]

Let's hope Ike goes far away from the gulf.

[shah8]

The total damage estimate for Emily was around 500 million dollars. That is nothing. Emily caused around 10 fatalities. That is also, in relative terms to other hurricanes, nothing. That is the reason why Emily, like Brent is not retired.

Hurricane Dean killed 45 people and caused 2 billion dollars of damage. Hurricane Felix killed 133 people with minimal damage estimate. Both were retired. Some hurricanes never get retired, like the one that killed thousands of people in Haiti, or the one that mostly killed cows in Kennedy County, Texas.

It has never been about lives, directly, but about countries requesting that the name be retired. Cuba did not suffer large loss of life during Dennis or Gustov largely because they do a bang up job of preserving lives. However, both Gustov and Dennis has had monumental impact on crops, homes, business and infrastructure, and it will cause hardship across a huge span of that populace. Of course Gustov will be retired, even if had turned into Lili, because Cuba would have requested retirement. Haiti, on the other hand, does not request storms to be retired.

[crazycajuncane]

Here is a video I took earlier this morning of damage around my apartment.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wvKhX_eszoA

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2205
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0311 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 881...

VALID 022011Z - 022115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 881 CONTINUES.

THE TORNADO THREAT ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION. A NEW WW WILL BE NEEDED FROM SE LA NWD ACROSS NE LA AND
EWD ACROSS MUCH OF WRN AND CNTRL MS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUSTAV IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS FAR NW LA AND
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECASTS TO THE SYSTEM TO MOVE NWD
INTO WCNTRL AR THIS EVENING. SUBSTANTIAL RAINBANDS WRAP AROUND THE
CENTER ON THE NRN AND ERN QUADRANTS. THE RUC SHOWS 0-1 KM SHEAR
VALUES EXCEEDING 40 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA FROM SE AR INTO WRN
MS AND NE LA. THE RUC ALSO SUGGESTS SBCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 500 TO
1500 J/KG FROM WRN MS SWD INTO SERN LA WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING
SWD. THE GREATEST COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS
CURRENTLY OVER SW MS AND NE LA WHERE ROTATING STORMS AND A FEW
TORNADOES APPEAR LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS. ALTHOUGH
LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR WEAKENS EWD ACROSS CNTRL MS...THE SHEAR
COMBINED WITH ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE SHOULD STILL SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS WELL.

..BROYLES.. 09/02/2008


ATTN...WFO...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...

28828999 28759054 28729106 29029137 29439129 29639107
29849112 30169147 30699177 31019179 31069160 31349161
31639134 31829130 31959117 32239102 32459101 32769111
33159116 33489111 33619115 33799100 34139089 34149065
33999063 33969041 33799041 33788994 33918991 33858948
33308949 33298932 32908935 32898836 31828849 30738843
30738888 30438888 30388855 30318837 29898830 29888853
29538860 29378876 29118864 28778884 28708918 28688940
28798972 28968976

[HURAKAN]

Here is a video I took earlier this morning of damage around my apartment.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wvKhX_eszoA

Good to see that there was not major damage.

[canetracker]

Finally!!!! Power and cable back up in Harahan!!! We were really blessed. Many older peolple without power who stayed and we helped them with batteries and supplies. So good to be back!
Hope all is doing well. My prayers go out to all.

[Category 5]

Speaking of Cuba...I cannot help but be utterly impressed with the capability of their emergency services. A near category 5 storm smacks heavily populated areas? Not a single soul (maybe a hobo went over the water, but whatever) dies! Myanmar can't claim that. Neither can China or the Phillipines. Mexico certainly has never done better, and they have a pretty decent group themselves. Cuba is apparently the Michael Jordans of this kind of response.

The U.S can't claim this either. Cuba did a fantastic job once again.

[Bunkertor]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
514 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2008

LAC051-071-022230-
/O.CON.KLIX.TO.W.0111.000000T0000Z-080902T2230Z/
JEFFERSON LA-ORLEANS LA-
513 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN ORLEANS AND NORTHERN JEFFERSON PARISHES...

AT 510 PM CDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED AN UNCONFIRMED TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED IN WESTWEGO...MOVING NORTH AT 22 MPH.
THIS TORNADO WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE PARISH LINE NEAR OCSHNER
HOSPITAL AND OLD JEFFERSON HIGHWAY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 2978 9015 2983 9016 2988 9022 3003 9019
3002 9012 3003 9005 2994 9005 2990 9000
2987 9001 2984 9006 2977 9007
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 191DEG 19KT 2997 9013

[fasterdisaster]

OK I'm confused, wikipedia seems to indicate Gustav made US landfall as both Category 2 and 3.

On September 1 around 9 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Gustav came ashore 22 miles west of Grand Isle, Louisiana.[29] At this time, the maximum sustained winds of Gustav were 115 mph (185 km), which made Gustav a borderline major hurricane.[30]The interaction with land caused Gustav's winds to weaken slightly—to 110 mph (175 km/h)—which made the storm a Category 2 hurricane

[RL3AO]

OK I'm confused, wikipedia seems to indicate Gustav made US landfall as both Category 2 and 3.

On September 1 around 9 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Gustav came ashore 22 miles west of Grand Isle, Louisiana.[29] At this time, the maximum sustained winds of Gustav were 115 mph (185 km), which made Gustav a borderline major hurricane.[30]The interaction with land caused Gustav's winds to weaken slightly—to 110 mph (175 km/h)—which made the storm a Category 2 hurricane

Normally these tropical cyclone articles are written an organized by only a handfull of people who know a decent amount about TCs. However, when you get a high profile storm like this, you get hundreds of people editing the article, most who know nothing of tropical cyclones. This can cause problems with incorrect data and bad writting. In a week or so after its attention has calmed down, it will get re-written and will read better.

And operationally, he made landfall as a 95kt category 2.

[HarlequinBoy]

There is lots and lots of rain over Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi.


We also had a tornado warning an hour or so ago.

[CrazyC83]

Looks like a tornado outbreak is underway now...the SPC reports list show injuries from a tornado in Jefferson Parish.

2248 MARRERO JEFFERSON LA 2989 9011 UNKNOWN NUMBER OF INJURIES BEING REPORTED IN MARRERO FROM EARLIER TORNADO. (LIX)

[jasons2k]

I wonder if the Cuban "success" is truthfully as good as reported. After all, it is via the communist, state run media from which we get any information from there. Maybe Hurakan can shed some light, but I find it hard to believe it's always as perfect as they say it is.

[JTE50]

Some Gustav video I shot in Thibodaux, LA yesterday.

http://www.extremestorms.com/Gustav_9_1_08_WMV.wmv

[HURAKAN]

I'm sure it's not as "successful" as they say it is. But I know that they truly prepare for the storms. Cuba has one of the best meteorological services in Latin America, and the best in tropical meteorology. We have enjoyed the radar system and they just invested a few years ago in technology that allows them to present the weather very similar to what we see in the US. All the TV meteorologists work for the Instituto de Meteorología de Cuba (Meteorological Institute of Cuba) and José Rubiera, their leader meteorologist, is regarded as one of the best in tropical meteorology by hurricane experts like Lixion Avila that know him very well. The hurricane coverage is 24 hours in the TV and radio, just like in the US. Until a few years ago Fidel would be the first one to be right next to Rubiera and indicating what to do. Just like in a war you would expect that Commander in Chief to be present, he was there dressed like going to battle.

Cuba has around 11 million people. Evacuating a province is not as difficult as evacuating any major American city that can have half or more that amount of people. The Cuban regime puts a lot of effort when these kind of emergencies occur to save the lives of its people and keep their image. Still, when hurricanes like Gustav hit, it's difficult to imagine that no one dies.

[fasterdisaster]

I'm sure it's not as "successful" as they say it is. But I know that they truly prepare for the storms. Cuba has one of the best meteorological services in Latin America, and the best in tropical meteorology. We have enjoyed the radar system and they just invested a few years ago in technology that allows them to present the weather very similar to what we see in the US. All the TV meteorologists work for the Instituto de Meteorología de Cuba (Meteorological Institute of Cuba) and José Rubiera, their leader meteorologist, is regarded as one of the best in tropical meteorology by hurricane experts like Lixion Avila that know him very well. The hurricane coverage is 24 hours in the TV and radio, just like in the US. Until a few years ago Fidel would be the first one to be right next to Rubiera and indicating what to do. Just like in a war you would expect that Commander in Chief to be present, he was there dressed like going to battle.

Cuba has around 11 million people. Evacuating a province is not as difficult as evacuating any major American city that can have half or more that amount of people. The Cuban regime puts a lot of effort when these kind of emergencies occur to save the lives of its people and keep their image. Still, when hurricanes like Gustav hit, it's difficult to imagine that no one dies.

That sounds very good, certainly, but it doesn't sound better than the US which usually has some deaths.

[HURAKAN]

This was during Hurricane Iván:





fasterdisaster, like I said before, there is an image that Cuba wants to portray to the world and to its people. They really don't care about their people but they care about their image in the world. By taking all the preparation they are telling them, we're here for you and to protect you. It's a false sense of security that is destroyed when they go back to find a demolished home and no resources to fix it.

[CrazyC83]

Not good:

0535 PM TORNADO WESTWEGO 29.90N 90.14W
09/02/2008 JEFFERSON LA TRAINED SPOTTER

POWER LINES DOWN...MINOR TO EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO HOMES.
ROOFS TAKEN OFF.WELL-CONSTRUCTED BRICK BUILDINGS
DESTROYED INCLUDING MULTI-STORY APARTMENT COMPLEX...CAR
WASH...AND RESTAURANT. SPOTTER N0DRC.