ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[niner21]

Nam who?

[Nederlander]

its the NAM model...not reliable for most TCs

[PTrackerLA]

Wanting to feel a *little* better that Gustav will past to the east of Lafayette but I know it's too premature. Even a path to the east could put us in the western eyewall if the eye is large upon landfall. It's very bittersweet whatever happens due to the extreme danger to New Orleans area which would be much worse if Gustav goes east of here. Bad news either way I'm afraid.

[PTPatrick]

GFS further east still on 0z...now vort max goes on the north side of PLaquimines over NOLA...Shoots west toward Lafayette inland....but by the then the westward tun seems moot. I know the vort max is not necessarily the track but the resolution is so poor on GFS on the surface maps. The GFS depicts the "L" likely going over grand isle...again though either ways its moot, if the surge gets as big as it sounds.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_042l.gif

[PTPatrick]

0z CMC is in line with the other models...although landfall is between forecast points 36 and 48 hours... I think you can extrapolate a landfall on Grand Isle then westward bend toward Lafayette.


http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/mod ... 30_100.gif

[Jason_B]

I think it's safe to say SW LA and SE TX is the target...where exactly is the only question to be answered as far as landfall goes.

[Texashawk]

I think it's safe to say SW LA and SE TX is the target...where exactly is the only question to be answered as far as landfall goes.

Wary as I have been previously, I think we can more or less come down from the roofs in Texas.

[mattpetre]

Ready to come down from the rooftop thinking in SE TX and hope that we can help those that are in harms way, but I still have a feeling that just because we are closer to landfall the shifts are not quite over and this ridging is still a bit too unpredictable. I just hate to think of what it will be like in Houston tomorrow if the models happen to shift more towards Cameron Parrish area again. Just wish this didn't have to happen at all.

BTW, how long do I need to stay up for the next GFDL and/or EURO?

[Wx_Warrior]

GFDL any moment EURO is at 2am. IF they shift, then they shift....Local leaders have ordered evacs.

[AL Chili Pepper]

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
HURRICANE GUSTAV 07L
INITIAL TIME 0Z AUG 31

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 22.7 83.4 320./13.0
6 23.8 84.2 325./13.5
12 24.8 85.4 309./14.7
18 25.9 86.3 320./13.2
24 26.7 87.4 306./13.2
30 27.5 88.7 304./13.7
36 28.2 89.8 300./12.2
42 29.0 90.7 314./10.9
48 29.8 91.6 309./11.4
54 30.4 92.4 307./ 9.3
60 31.1 93.2 313./ 9.6
66 31.6 93.7 316./ 6.5
72 32.0 94.0 317./ 5.1
78 32.2 94.7 283./ 6.0
84 32.0 94.9 240./ 1.8
90 32.1 95.1 292./ 1.6
96 31.9 95.2 220./ 2.3
102 31.5 95.4 207./ 4.1
108 31.5 95.4 121./ .5
114 31.5 95.5 264./ 1.6
120 31.3 95.4 137./ 2.0
126 31.4 95.3 48./ 1.4

that looks west to me.

[ROCK]

yes it does...not a lot though...maybe saves NO butt...going to be a close call...

[PTPatrick]

Yep...Timbalier bay instead of Grand isle/Baritaria Bay, about 30 miles west of the other models...

[PTPatrick]

Oz ukmet...basically the same as the other models...somewhere between Grand Ilse and Timbalier Bay...wish the resolution was better on globals.


OH and its through with the cracked on SW turn...plows him straight up to Shreveport

[Wx_Warrior]

where in the heck is that? (Timbalier)

[PTPatrick]

Basically Timablier Bay is the bay between Lafourche and Terrebon Parrish

[shah8]

I think the gfdl is a tad too west.

However, I want to stress that these models are predicting, for all intents and purposes, a catastrophic inland flooding situation.

[PTPatrick]

GFS is a hair west of NOGAPS, UKMET, CMC tonight...as such, i am not surprised that its children GFDL would be with that...although I havent been able to find the HWRF yet.


HWRF just updated...landfall on Grand isle, so its actually east of GFDL and GFS but a good bit...

HWRF also weakens it a good bit. Has a cat 2 at landfall...not impressive. GFDL hold with the cat 3 senario.

[Duddy]

Can someone post landfall graphics of these models. Y'all use to do that but now everyone just comments on the stuff. I ask because I have to use my iPhone to browse.

[Texashawk]

Can someone post landfall graphics of these models. Y'all use to do that but now everyone just comments on the stuff. I ask because I have to use my iPhone to browse.

As an aside, the iPhone is quite possibly the greatest portable hurricane tracker ever created.

[Duddy]

Can someone post landfall graphics of these models. Y'all use to do that but now everyone just comments on the stuff. I ask because I have to use my iPhone to browse.

As an aside, the iPhone is quite possibly the greatest portable hurricane tracker ever created.

Yeah it's great but you can't see java loops for models.