EPAC: Tropical Depression Julio

[pojo]

Well its rather close to land though Pojo, would only take a moderate shift to the east and you have a real threat to land. Looks to me that this is well on its way to being a tropical storm.

we'll find out what the next couple of days bring

[AnnularCane]

It's Julio now!

[KWT]

Hardly surprising AnnularCane with such a nice region of convection with it and pretty deep as well.

[Cyclenall]

000
WTPZ61 KNHC 232046
TCUEP1
TROPICAL STORM JULIO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112008
205 PM PDT SAT AUG 23 2008
A RECENT SHIP OBSERVATION RECEIVED JUST AFTER THE ADVISORY PACKAGE
WAS TRANSMITTED INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E HAS
STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM JULIO. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE 40
MPH...65 KM/HR AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1005
MB...29.68 INCHES OF MERCURY. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST INTENSITY
OR TRACK IS NECESSARY.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

[cycloneye]

426
WTPZ31 KNHC 232356
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JULIO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112008
500 PM PDT SAT AUG 23 2008

...TROPICAL STORM JULIO CONTINUING NORTHWESTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST AROUND THE
PENINSULA AND NORTHWARD TO BUENAVISTA ON THE EAST COAST. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM PDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.8 WEST OR ABOUT
240 MILES...380 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS.

JULIO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF JULIO WILL PASS NEAR OR JUST WEST OF
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM PDT POSITION...19.8 N...108.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[Chacor]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=25&t=102719

Tropical Depression Eleven-E forecast challenge.

Still open.

[physicx07]

Outflow decreasing to the north and northwest? I thought perhaps it would strengthen quick, but maybe not.

I'm not sure how skilled I am at seeing how good the outflow is though. Please take a look and let me know what you think:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/loop-avn.html

[cycloneye]

WTPZ31 KNHC 240255
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JULIO ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112008
800 PM PDT SAT AUG 23 2008

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA...

AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA
FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST AROUND THE PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO
SAN EVARISTO ON THE EAST COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF SANTA FE TO BAHIA MAGDALENA AND ON THE EAST
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF SAN EVARISTO TO LORETO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.6 WEST OR ABOUT 185
MILES...300 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

JULIO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF JULIO IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA LATE
MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

JULIO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...20.5 N...108.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

WTPZ41 KNHC 240256
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112008
800 PM PDT SAT AUG 23 2008

A SERIES OF MICROWAVE PASSES JUST BEFORE 0000 UTC INDICATES THAT THE
CENTER OF JULIO IS A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT STILL
NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. SUCH A
CENTER PLACEMENT SUGGESTS THAT VERTICAL SHEAR CONTINUES TO HINDER
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CYCLONE. IN ADDITION...LATEST DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS
SUPPORT KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 35 KT. WITH JULIO
EXPECTED TO BE OVER SUFFICIENTLY WARM WATER DURING THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS...THE SHORT-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST HINGES ON THE VERTICAL
SHEAR. UNFORTUNATELY...GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE FORECAST UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WITH SOME SHOWING AN INCREASE IN
SHEAR WHILE OTHERS IMPLY SOME DECREASE IN SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST ASSUMES THAT JULIO WILL ENCOUNTER AN ENVIRONMENT OF
SLIGHTLY WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR ALLOWING SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR A
LITTLE STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE INTERACTION
WITH LAND RESULTS IN WEAKENING.

BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE PASSES...JULIO IS NOW MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335/11. THE SHORT-TERM TRACK
FORECAST IS A CHALLENGE TO SAY THE LEAST...AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO
ANTICIPATE WHETHER THE CENTER OF JULIO WILL REMAIN CONNECTED WITH
THE DEEP CONVECTION. SHOULD THE CENTER BECOME DETACHED...IT WOULD
MOVE NORTHWESTWARD WITH THE SHALLOW STEERING. HOWEVER...IF THE
CENTER REMAINS CONNECTED...IT WOULD TEND TO MOVE MORE NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AS SHOWN BY THE GFDL. THIS RESULTS IN CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER JULIO WILL TRACK EAST OF...WEST OF...OR
OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. GIVEN THE GFDL'S RESPECTABLE
TRACK RECORD IN SIMILAR SITUATIONS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS
TOWARD THAT MODEL AND IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS REASONING COUPLED WITH A SLIGHT INITIAL
CENTER RELOCATION NECESSITATES AN EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST. THE NEW FORECAST ALSO REQUIRES A NORTHWARD
EXTENSION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

THE TROPICAL STORM WIND RADII ARE BASED ON NEARBY SHIPS DHER AND
DDFD2

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/0300Z 20.5N 108.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 24/1200Z 21.8N 109.2W 45 KT
24HR VT 25/0000Z 23.2N 109.9W 45 KT
36HR VT 25/1200Z 24.6N 110.6W 40 KT
48HR VT 26/0000Z 25.7N 111.3W 35 KT
72HR VT 27/0000Z 27.5N 112.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 28/0000Z 29.5N 113.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[Chacor]

From Mexico's weather bureau:

137
TCPA57 MMMX 240329
AVISO NUMERO CUATRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL JULIO DEL PACIFICO ORIENTAL
240300Z AGOSTO 2008
EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL JULIO FUE LOCALIZADO EN BASE A IMAGEN DE
SATELITE
A LAS 240300Z CCA DE 20.5 N/108.6 W CON UNA PRECISION EN LA POSICION DE 30
M.N.
CENTRO UBICADO APROXIMADAMENTE A 161 M.N. AL SSE DE MMSD SAN JOSE DEL
CABO,BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR
MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL NNW A LOS 340 GRADOS A 11 NUDOS CON VIENTOS MAXIMOS DE 35
NUDOS Y RACHAS DE HASTA 45 NUDOS EN UN RADIO DE 75 M.N CON VIENTOS DE 35 NUDOS
Y RACHAS DE HASTA 45 NUDOS
POSICIONES PRONOSTICADAS

A LAS 240600Z CCA DE 20.9 N/108.8 W APROX. A 135 M.N. AL SSE DE MMSD SAN
JOSE DEL CABO,BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR CON VIENTOS MAX. DE 40 NUDOS Y RACHAS DE HASTA
50 NUDOS

A LAS 241200Z CCA DE 21.8 N/109.2 W APROX. A 77 M.N. AL S DE MMSD SAN JOSE
DEL CABO,BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR CON VIENTOS MAX. DE 45 NUDOS Y RACHAS DE HASTA 55
NUDOS

A LAS 241800Z CCA DE 22.5 N/109.6 W APROX. A 36 M.N. AL SSW DE MMSD SAN
JOSE DEL CABO,BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR CON VIENTOS MAX. DE 45 NUDOS Y RACHAS DE HASTA
55 NUDOS

A LAS 250000Z CCA DE 23.2 N/109.9 W APROX. A 26 M.N. AL WNW DE MMSD SAN
JOSE DEL CABO,BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR CON VIENTOS MAX. DE 45 NUDOS Y RACHAS DE HASTA
55 NUDOS


SE RECOMIENDA EXTREMAR PRECAUCIONES EN LAS OPERACIONES AEREAS EN LAS
CERCANIAS DEL SISTEMA TROPICAL
EL SIGUIENTE AVISO SE EMITIRA A LAS 240600 Z O ANTES SI OCURRE ALGUN CAMBIO
SIGNIFICATIVO

[senorpepr]

Charts produced hourly at :30
Ensure you refresh for the latest imagery


Tropical Storm Julio (11E)

Surface Pressure and Plots

Displayed is surface pressure (lines of equal pressure are displayed as blue lines) and surface plots. Click here for weather symbols explanation.

Surface Streamlines and Plots

Displayed is surface wind (lines of equal wind direction are displayed as blue lines) and surface plots. Click here for weather symbols explanation.

Sea Surface Temperatures and Plots

Displayed is sea surface temperatures.

Storm-specific Zoomed Surface Plots

Displayed is surface plots, zoomed toward the storm. Click here for weather symbols explanation.

[cycloneye]

142
WTPZ31 KNHC 241451
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JULIO ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112008
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 24 2008

...JULIO A LITTLE STRONGER....MEXICO EXTENDS WARNINGS AND WATCHES
NORTHWARD ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...

AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA TO PUNTA ABREOJOS...AND NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST
TO MULEGE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM PUNTA
ABREOJOS ON THE WEST COAST AROUND THE PENINSULA AND NORTHWARD TO
MULEGE ON THE EAST COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH
OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO EL POCITO...AND ALONG THE EAST COAST NORTH OF
MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.0 WEST OR ABOUT 35
MILES... 55 KM...SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

JULIO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF JULIO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
THEN APPROACH THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE JULIO REACHES THE BAJA PENINSULA LATER TODAY AND
WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

JULIO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA
PENINSULA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...22.4 N...110.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH

WTPZ41 KNHC 241453
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112008
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 24 2008

EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF
JULIO IS LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A RATHER IMPRESSIVE
BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION. THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY AN AMSU MICROWAVE
OVERPASS AROUND 1215 UTC. THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE 45 AND 55 KT RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER...THE
TAFB FIX POSITION WAS A LITTLE FARTHER INTO THE CONVECTION...WHICH
YIELDS AN ESTIMATE THAT IS LIKELY ON THE HIGH SIDE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45 KT...BASED ON THE SAB CLASSIFICATION AND
A RECENTLY-RECEIVED QUIKSCAT PASS. THE QUIKSCAT PASS ALSO CONFIRMS
OUR EARLIER WIND RADII ESTIMATES.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/11. JULIO CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
JULIO HAS ONLY A LITTLE TIME TO INTENSIFY BEFORE THE CIRCULATION
INTERACTS WITH MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA
PENINSULA. THE MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR PRIOR TO REACHING THE BAJA
PENINSULA IS MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHOWS SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...THEN GRADUAL
WEAKENING THEREAFTER. IF THE CIRCULATION REMAINS INLAND OVER THE
BAJA PENINSULA IT COULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE FASTER THAN INDICATED
IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

MOISTURE FROM JULIO COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES IN A FEW DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/1500Z 22.4N 110.0W 45 KT
12HR VT 25/0000Z 23.7N 110.8W 50 KT
24HR VT 25/1200Z 25.3N 111.8W 45 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 26/0000Z 26.7N 112.5W 35 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 26/1200Z 27.8N 113.0W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 27/1200Z 29.1N 113.6W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH

[cycloneye]

WTPZ31 KNHC 250233
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JULIO ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112008
800 PM PDT SUN AUG 24 2008

...JULIO BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS ON THE WEST COAST AROUND
THE PENINSULA AND NORTHWARD TO MULEGE ON THE EAST COAST.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO EL POCITO...
AND ALONG THE EAST COAST NORTH OF MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIO WAS
ESTIMATED TO BE INLAND OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NEAR
LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.1 WEST OR ABOUT 50
MILES... 85 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF LA PAZ MEXICO.

JULIO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH
A TURN TO THE NORTH EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES
THE CENTER OF JULIO UP THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JULIO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

JULIO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...24.4 N...111.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

WTPZ41 KNHC 250232
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112008
800 PM PDT SUN AUG 24 2008

IT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER OF JULIO...BUT AN ASCAT
PASS AROUND 18Z...OBSERVATIONS FROM LA PAZ...AND A HEALTHY DOSE OF
CONTINUITY PLACE THE CENTER NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE ASCAT PASS SUGGESTED THAT JULIO HAD
WEAKENENED A BIT AND THE INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 40 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/11. JULIO IS MOVING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO.
THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH A BLOCKING RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IN ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS. IN THIS
PATTERN...THE MOST LIKELY TRACK IS A PATH MORE OR LESS UP THE
PENINSULA WITH A GRADUAL BEND TO THE RIGHT THAT COULD PLACE THE
CENTER IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BEFORE THE STEERING CURRENTS
COLLAPSE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY LATE IN THE PERIOD AND NEAR THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.

COLD WATER LIES AHEAD IF THE CENTER STAYS OFF THE WEST COAST...AND
THE TERRAIN OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ISN'T GOING TO DO JULIO ANY
FAVORS EITHER. THUS WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND JULIO MAY WELL
BECOME A DEPRESSION FASTER THAN INDICATED HERE. EVEN IF THE CENTER
EMERGES OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF...BY THEN THE GLOBAL
MODELS PLACE THE CYCLONE UNDER STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD
PREVENT ANY REDEVELOPMENT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/0300Z 24.4N 111.1W 40 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 25/1200Z 25.7N 111.9W 35 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 26/0000Z 27.4N 112.5W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 26/1200Z 28.8N 113.0W 25 KT...OVER WATER
48HR VT 27/0000Z 29.5N 113.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 28/0000Z 30.0N 113.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Cyclenall]

AND THE TERRAIN OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ISN'T GOING TO DO JULIO ANY FAVORS EITHER.

I like this line.

[HURAKAN]

.

[HURAKAN]

Very heavy rainfall over Baja California.

[HURAKAN]

640
WTPZ31 KNHC 251145
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JULIO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112008
500 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2008

....JULIO PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS TO SANTA FE ON THE WEST
COAST...AND FROM LA PAZ TO MULEGE ON THE EAST COAST.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO EL POCITO...
AND ALONG THE EAST COAST NORTH OF MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIO WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.0 WEST OR ABOUT
45 MILES... 70 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF LORETO MEXICO.

JULIO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF JULIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TODAY AND INTO THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
JULIO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

JULIO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 500 AM PDT POSITION...26.3 N...112.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looking very good. If part of the LLC can remain over the Gulf of California and this can keep up to the north. The people in southern Gulf Califorina should watch this carefully. Maybe just maybe some of the heavy rain can move up here to!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Come on Julio race northward in sit right over Portland!!!

Some rare "wishcasting" from me. Normally I don't do this.

[Category 5]

Come on Julio race northward in sit right over Portland!!!

Some rare "wishcasting" from me. Normally I don't do this.

Thats a good one Matt.

[Chacor]

Julio is not giving up. New warnings in an area that doesn't normally get warnings, i.e. the northern GOC coast of Mainland Mexico.

593
WTPZ41 KNHC 251446
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112008
800 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2008

THE CENTER OF JULIO REMAINS EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS
MORNING. AN 0934 UTC AMSRE-E MICROWAVE OVERPASS SUGGESTED THAT
THE CENTER WAS OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND EARLY MORNING VISIBLE
IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER LIKELY REMAINS OVER LAND. THE
CYCLONE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT OBSERVATIONS OF TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS...BUT WE WILL MAINTAIN JULIO AS A TROPICAL
STORM GIVEN THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE.

THE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/12. JULIO IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO. THE LARGE SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO
PREDICT A DECREASE IN JULIO'S FORWARD MOTION AS A RIDGE DEVELOPS
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF JULIO MAY CONTINUE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
LEFT BEHIND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK SLOWS JULIO DOWN AND KEEPS THE CENTER
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE NHC TRACK IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST.

SINCE THE CENTER OF JULIO MAY MOVE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS
JULIO AS A TROPICAL STORM FOR 12 HOURS. DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE
CENTER MAY BE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE
GLOBAL MODES PREDICT INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN
JULIO. GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY THAT JULIO COULD REMAIN A TROPICAL
STORM IN THE SHORT-TERM OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE
GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND HAS ISSUED
A NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A PORTION OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.

MOISTURE FROM JULIO IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WILL LIKELY ENHANCE
RAINFALL OVER THAT REGION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 25/1500Z 26.8N 112.2W 35 KT
12HR VT 26/0000Z 28.1N 112.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 26/1200Z 29.1N 113.1W 30 KT
36HR VT 27/0000Z 29.7N 113.3W 25 KT
48HR VT 27/1200Z 30.1N 113.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 28/1200Z 30.3N 113.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN